Is Cook Justifying His Contract?

When Dalvin Cook signed his contract on the eve of the 2020 season, there was plenty to be critical about. The “running backs don’t matter” chorus has only grown louder since the hotly debated selections of Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette in 2016 and 2017.

Ben Baldwin laid out the argument comprehensively. In short, the running game has a minimal impact on game outcomes and running backs have a minimal impact on the running game (as compared to their offensive line, which Cook himself seems to recognize). In addition, running backs are notoriously hard to scout and that good running backs can be acquired for cheap. Investing in a running back, on the whole, is difficult to pay off.

But is Dalvin Cook doing the impossible?

Dalvin Cook’s five-year, $63 million extension is structured in such a way to minimize its impact on the salary cap. After his pay raise, Cook is currently the 14th-priciest running back in the league. Next year, he will be 10th. By 2022, he’ll be 5th. We can also expect new contracts to be signed between then and now, bumping him down the list. Put another way, the Vikings won’t really have a unique cap burden tied up in the running back position, even in the more expensive years.

Cook’s contract is also flexible. Only his signing bonus and some money this year is fully guaranteed. In fact, the vast majority of Cook’s $63 million is malleable. In the chart below, the blue bars represent cap charges the Vikings will have to pay one way or another. The red bars represent money the Vikings could cut, trade, or otherwise restructure.



So the bar to “justify” this contract doesn’t require elite play that changes the shape of the position. By 2022 or 2023, the cap will have inflated such that a $12 million or $13 million cap charge no longer feels burdensome. Cook just has to prove that he contributes. But for a running back, that’s an uphill climb. Among starters, Cook is the 2nd-highest graded running back in the league. He leads the league in yards after contact (per attempt), and is second in PFF’s elusive rating. Those are the base numbers, but the work is far from done.

So, just how good is Cook?

Is he the best running back in the game right now? Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey (when healthy) should be in on that conversation. But yeah, there’s a sound argument to be made on his behalf without too much straining. Only three players have more rushing yards since the start of last season. Only three have more scrimmage yards. Only two have scored more total touchdowns.

You know, the last time the Vikings had a running back who was regarded as the best in the business was that Adrian Peterson fellow. And by sheer coincidence, Minnesota will be facing the Detroit Lions this week and their leading rusher is none other than Peterson. Obviously, Peterson at 35 years old is a little different player than when he was a decade ago, so there’s little comparison between the two players in 2020.

However, in light of this weekend’s matchup between the best Vikings running back of all time and the newest addition to the Vikings’ running back Mount Rushmore (alongside Chuck Foreman and Robert Smith) let’s do a little comparison of Cook now vs. Peterson at the same stage of his career. Cook has played 35 career games, which is a nice composite number. It’s a multiple of five, it’s is exactly halfway between 30 and 40, and it feels like a better benchmark than 34 or 36.

At the time of his 35th game, Cook was 25 years, 83 days old. And if my math is right, Peterson was 24 years, 204 days at the time of his 35th career game – a difference of roughly eight months.

Let’s compare their statistics through 35 games:

RUSHING

Peterson

699 carries
3,576 rushing yards
5.12 average
29 rushing touchdowns

Cook

579 carries
2,756 rushing yards
4.76 average
27 rushing touchdowns

Not surprisingly, Peterson holds a pretty good lead in rushing stats through 35 games. Remember, his magical rookie season included the 224-yard effort against the Bears and the record 296-yard game against the Chargers.

There aren’t a lot of similarities in their rushing styles. Cook and young AD both have tremendous speed in the 4.3 range. Both are capable of breaking off big chunk runs and both have excellent vision. But while Peterson was just as likely to stiff-arm someone into the Earth’s crust or run defenders over as he was to race away from them, Cook is more of a smooth cutter, able to seamlessly dodge would-be tacklers in mid-stride.

RECEIVING

Peterson

50 receptions
455 receiving yards
1 receiving touchdown

Cook

118 receptions
1,041 receiving yards
3 receiving touchdowns

This is where Cook narrows the overall gap considerably with Peterson, who was never much of a receiver. Peterson was a traditional bell-cow back with alien abilities, used sparingly as a receiver out of the backfield. Meanwhile, Cook is simultaneously among the best runners and among the most effective pass-catching backs in the NFL. That added value has to count for a lot, especially in this era of NFL offenses.

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE

Add it all up, and here’s where things stand in terms of the statistical tale of the tape:

Peterson

740 touches for 4,031 yards from scrimmage and 30 total touchdowns

Cook

697 touches for 3,797 yards from scrimmage and 30 total touchdowns

Closer than you thought?

Peterson had 43 more touches and 234 more scrimmage yards through 35 games. That’s a smidge more than one touch and a little under seven yards per game. And both have found the end zone the same number of times.

Of course, through 35 games Peterson had two Pro Bowl appearances, en route to his third, and one All-Pro honor on the way to his second. He also had the aforementioned single-game rushing record. Cook has (only) one Pro Bowl (so far) for his efforts… and is heading toward a potential All-Pro honor if he stays healthy the balance of the season. That’s another thing: Peterson in the early part of his career was much more durable than Cook is now.

Recency bias is convincing a lot of folks that Cook might in fact be just about as good as Peterson was when he was racing around during his first three seasons. The truth is that they are just different types of players.

Cook is, was and will always be the better threat as a receiver. We didn’t really need to review the data to tell us that, but the gap between the two in this regard is enormous. However, with all due respect to Cook – and everyone else who’s ever carried a football – vintage Peterson during the first act of his career might have been the best runner the NFL has ever seen. His list of peers purely as a runner is mighty brief. The fact that Cook is amazing everyone today yet still falls pretty far short of Peterson’s rushing pace, reinforces that legacy.