The Ripple Effects

For Purple Insider content purposes, we can only hope that the 2021 offseason has as many future-altering moves as 2020. Last offseason included an overhaul of major pieces and massive new contracts for the Vikings’ quarterback and running back.

How do those moves look one year later? How will they impact this offseason and the future? Let’s have a look at some of the biggest moves of last offseason with our hindsight glasses on…

Kirk Cousins contract extension
The Vikings signed Cousins to a two-year contract extension with the Vikings worth $66 million.

Butterfly effect:

The immediate result of Cousins’s extension was the Vikings creating cap space to sign nose tackle Michael Pierce. When he opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID concerns, that opened up room for the Vikings to acquire Yannick Ngakoue in a trade (more on that later). Had the Vikings not signed Cousins to an extension to reduce his 2020 cap hit, the results of the 2020 season wouldn’t have been much different because neither Pierce or Ngakoue had any real impact. Cousins would have played out the season and then left the team with a decision on whether to re-sign him or let him walk in free agency.

The Vikings would be dead smack in the middle of QB MADNESS had they not signed Cousins to an extension. Instead they are the subject of some speculative rumblings because of his contract.

In the long term, there’s two ways to look at the extension:

On one hand, the Vikings wasted the cheapest year of Cousins’s deal in 2020, putting them right back where they were before 2020 with the salary cap. At least for now — barring a surprising move — the Vikings took themselves out of the running for top QBs in the draft (and probably the trade market) by locking into Cousins. They also largely removed themselves from the conversation for big-name free agents too.

With his 2022 salary becoming fully guaranteed on the third day of the league year, the Vikings now sit in a position where they either have to trade Cousins or extend him within the next two years because playing on a $45 million cap hit in 2022 isn’t a workable option.

The other way of looking at Cousins’s extension is that it could set the Vikings up with quarterback stability that does not exist otherwise in the NFC. Because the deal was essentially designed to be extended, he could end up in Minnesota for a very long time, giving the franchise an opportunity to build through the draft and stack talent around him without having to use major draft capital on the QB position.

Looking around the NFC, there are only four or five teams in the NFC with long-term stability at quarterback and that’s counting Green Bay with some uncertainty about how long Aaron Rodgers will be there and Seattle, which has some rumors of Russell Wilson’s unhappiness. Being the one team that isn’t chasing at QB may have its benefits.

Basically we can only trace the Cousins extension to how it’s affecting this offseason because there are so many dominos that still need to fall.

Releasing Linval Joseph, Xavier Rhodes and not picking up Everson Griffen’s option
The Vikings reportedly wanted Xavier Rhodes to return and Mike Zimmer openly campaigned for Everson Griffen to re-sign but instead they lost all three to free agency with Joseph landing with the Chargers, Rhodes in Indy and Griffen signing with Dallas.

Butterfly effect:

The Vikings attempted to fill the nose tackle position in free agency with Pierce and then decided not to dip back into the free agent market when he opted out. They were left with hopes that Shamar Stephen, Jaleel Johnson and Armon Watts could handle roles in filling big shoes on the interior of the defensive line. That, of course, did not come to fruition and the Vikings received one of the poorest performances in the NFL out of their defensive tackles in 2020.

At cornerback, Rhodes wasn’t the only one to exit. Mackensie Alexander and Trae Waynes also left in free agency. That caused the Vikings to lean on Holton Hill, Mike Hughes, Jeff Gladney and Cam Dantzler to start the year. Hill and Hughes struggled and then were lost for the year to injuries. Dantzler also battled injuries and the cornerback group ended up decimated.

Griffen leaving influenced the Vikings to trade for Ngakoue, a deal that cost the Vikings cap space that could have been spent elsewhere and a second-round pick. The move went bust by Week 6 when they traded him for a third-round pick.

Now Pierce is set to return, so the nose tackle position isn’t much different than it would have been otherwise. At corner and defensive end, there are still serious needs.

While Dantzler showed signs of overperforming his draft status and Gladney received more experience than usual for a Vikings rookie, it’s impossible to know whether they will take their games to another level next year or if Hughes can play a full season.

At defensive end, the Vikings likely didn’t see enough from their inexperienced pass rushing contingent to believe they are set going forward, meaning they will likely have to invest more in the position in either the draft, free agency or both.

Joseph, Rhodes and Griffen’s exits were largely necessary at the time. None of them played as well in 2019 as they had in previous seasons and each was too expensive to keep on their present deals (though all three signed reasonable contracts elsewhere). But their absences were felt.

So we can conclude that losing Joseph, Rhodes and Griffen hurt the team short term and have still left serious remaining questions. It’s hard to say how it might have played our had they stayed. The Vikings might have just been kicking the can one year down the road on rebuilding those spots. If the Vikings find gems in Dantzler and whichever defensive end they take in the draft (or maybe even DJ Wonnum), it will be because Rhodes and Griffen left and it was ultimately a good thing long term. If they don’t, it will feel like a bad break to have them all leave at once.

Stefon Diggs trade
The Vikings traded Diggs and a 2020 seventh-round pick to Buffalo in exchange for a 2020 first-round pick, a 2020 fifth-round pick, a 2020 sixth-round pick and a 2021 fourth-round pick.

Butterfly effect:

The most obvious place to begin with this trade is that the Vikings landed a young superstar receiver in Justin Jefferson with the first-round pick they received from the Bills. By year’s end, Jefferson was among the five highest graded receivers by Pro Football Focus and he’s cost controlled for four more seasons (if you include the fifth-year option). Had the Vikings kept Diggs, he presumably would have performed at a high level but would have also been more expensive. His presence might have become problematic considering he was already unhappy with the offensive system.

Jefferson’s success has the power to shape how the Vikings think of their timeline. Had they selected a less successful young receiver, they would have required a lot more effort to replace Diggs. Instead of searching for a bonus third receiver this offseason, they’d still be in serious need of a top player in that spot. Jefferson puts the offense in a position where they can be in the upper echelon of the NFL with a few changes rather than requiring major upgrades.

Some ancillary ripples to the trade: Jefferson’s success softened the blow of Diggs reaching the AFC Championship and leading the NFL in receiving. They would have been the target of far more scrutiny, especially after Diggs revealed his reasons for leaving to ESPN midway through the year.

The fourth-round pick this year shouldn’t be ignored. With the Vikings likely aiming to get back into the second round, it could end up being valuable.

Signing Dalvin Cook to a contract extension
Right before the start of the season, the Vikings signed Cook to a five year extension worth $63 million.

Butterfly effect:

Similarly to Jefferson, if the Vikings were losing Cook this offseason, they would feel a supreme need to add another playmaker. Many running backs are easily replaced but that’s hardly the case with Cook, who graded by PFF as the second best running back in the NFL in 2020. Cook also proved that he could stay healthy for the full season despite the Vikings’ best efforts to run him into the ground.

For now, the butterfly effect might be as simple as: The Vikings still have their great running back. Down the road, it’s worth wondering how the deal will look, especially if there are repercussions of his usage last season. Cook’s cap hit this year is very manageable at $5.1 million (per OTC) but that number goes up to $12 million in 2022 and $14 million in 2023.

There’s a what-if element to the Cook signing, too. What if they traded him last offseason? Would they have a second-round pick this year? Would we view Alexander Mattison as a starting running back? In their current situation, $5 million in cap space might feel like a lot with many other needs.

Trading for Yannick Ngakoue
The Vikings traded their second-round pick for Ngakoue and dealt Ngakoue to Baltimore for a third-round pick.

Butterfly effect:

It was clear from pretty early on that Ngakoue wasn’t a long-term fit, which pushed Ifeadi Odenigbo and DJ Wonnum into more playing time. The Vikings at least got a sample size of their play in order to make future decisions at defensive end.

One of those decisions could be taking an edge rusher with their first-round pick. Had the deal worked out, they might be talking about a long-term extension for Ngakoue this offseason and using draft capital in other areas.

The recent history of the Vikings and second-round picks gives you the feeling that the Ngakoue pick could be sorely missed. Since 2015 they’ve taken Eric Kendricks, Mack Alexander, Dalvin Cook, Brian O’Neill, Irv Smith Jr. and Ezra Cleveland in the second. Now they may be pressed into using additional draft picks to get back into the second round or living with the third rounder from the Ravens.

The Ngakoue trade was also about the cap space they couldn’t use on other positions of need (i.e. veteran cornerback, guard or defensive tackle) and it forced Riley Reiff to take a pay cut, which may impact negotiations with Reiff this year.

In the end, the deal might have done its most damage on the Vikings’ brass. Missing on the trade wasn’t just a bad break, it was an indication they believed 2020 could be a year in which they seriously contended in the NFC. With the results proving otherwise, it puts additional pressure on the Vikings to get everything right this offseason.

The bottom line
We can look back at 2020 as an offseason that had all sorts of moves that will have repercussions on the future. The extensions, trades and signings the Vikings made last year have set them up in some ways to be in more challenging positions than expected and in other ways given a chance to build on the future. That offseason may end up being remembered as the point they began a new era of success or the one where they were set back too much to climb out of quickly.