The Ripple Effects

With the clock ticking down toward kickoff in Week 1, you can bet Rick Spielman and other Vikings executives with rich mahogany desks at TCO Performance Center in Eagan have one eye on next offseason. As has been suggested recently in this space, the 2020 season reeks of uncharted territory in which anything can, and probably will, happen. So it’s prudent for the suits to look ahead toward a time when things might be more normal. Key phrase: “might be.”

Let Mike Zimmer and his staff worry about the day-to-day weirdness this season promises.

Anyway, to that end, one of the key conclusions the Vikings will be called upon to make is what to do with their All-Planet safety duo of Anthony Harris and Harrison Smith.

Unless you’ve been living in quarantine and… um, scratch that. Let’s try this again. Unless you haven’t been paying close attention to Vikings’ contracts due to more important things in your life lately such as – oh, I don’t know — a global pandemic, racial injustice and unemployment, here’s a quick refresher course:

Harris is playing under the franchise tag this season and is set to make $11.441 million in 2020. He will become an unrestricted free agent after this season. Star running back Dalvin Cook is also due to be an unrestricted free agent. Both will cost the Vikings a boatload of money and/or their franchise tag if they want to retain their services. In other words, the chances of both Harris and Cook staying put in Minnesota beyond this season are remote no matter what kind of tricks Vikings salary cap magician Rob Brzezinski summons from his spreadsheets.

Smith, on the other hand, won’t become a free agent until 2022. However, not a single soul would be surprised if he and his agent came calling next offseason looking for an extension so he doesn’t enter the final contract year without security. If any current Viking has earned the right to seek an extension, it’s Smith.

Recently, there’s been some movement in the safety market that could shed some light on just how much money we’re talking about when it comes to the next contracts for both Smith and Harris.

RECENT SAFETY DEALS

The Jets traded All-Pro safety Jamal Adams to the Seahawks in July for a massive return that included their first-round draft picks in 2021 and 2022. Many considered it too much to give up for a safety no matter how good he might be. Regardless of how anyone feels about the deal, however, it signaled that there’s a hot market for top-end safety talent in a league that values passing offenses as well as defenses that can stop them.

What’s more, the trade triggered a discussion on what Adams’ next contract might look like, given that he’s only 24 years old (he turns 25 in October) and will become a free agent in 2022. The fallout led ESPN’s Bill Barnwell to project that Adams would soon become the first $15 million per year safety and sign a four-year deal for at least $64 million, if not $10 million more than that. At first blush, that feels like an awful lot of money for a safety… again, no matter what kind of resume they have.

Is it really, though?

Remember, there’s a lot of money to go around in the NFL and salaries escalate every season. Right now, the top 10 safeties in the NFL make a smidge more than $12 million per season on average. A few examples: Bears safety Eddie Jackson, 27, signed a five-year deal this past January for $58.4 million. The Titans signed Kevin Byard in July of 2019, when he was 26, to a five-year contract worth a reported $70.5 million. Check out overthecap.com for details on the biggest safety contracts. It’s not a huge jump to get to $15 million.

And then, just last week, the Cardinals signed two-time Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker to a four-year extension worth a reported $59 million. Baker was set to become a free agent in 2021 so the Cards prevented him from hitting the market next winter. Some quick, back-of-the-napkin math tells us that’s already pretty darn close to $15 million per season. Like Adams, Baker is also just 24 years old. He turns 25 in January.

It would seem then that the market for top young safeties has already been established in the $15 million-per-year range — and that’s without any bidding wars among suitors in free agency.

Both of these guys are younger than Harris, who turns 29 in October, and Smith, who turns 32 in February, and age is certainly a big factor when determining contract size. So, what might the two stars in the Vikings’ secondary be asking for in their next deals?

Let’s take a look at some more comps, shall we?

FINAL PROGNOSIS (FOR NOW)

It would seem Smith is the more affordable and the more likely of the two between him and Harris to remain in Purple beyond their current deals.

Having scouted the safety salary landscape, the prediction as of now is that Smith gets an extension done with the Vikings next July for three or four years at close to $14 million per season. Harris will be long gone by then, signed by the highest bidding team for at least $15 million on average for at least four, probably five, years.

Oh, and Dalvin Cook? Who really knows anymore? That’s a whole different article.