Vikings Cuts 2020

legendsofthenorth
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 9, 2020 22:00:46 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by legendsofthenorth on Sept 9, 2020 22:00:46 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2020 20:55:07 GMT -6 HarryHits22 said:

Sept 9, 2020 20:35:48 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

You are wrong on your math.

If you flip a coin what's the chance it lands heads. 50 % right?
Now flip it again. What's percentage? 50%
Not 100%

If you draft a player in the 6th round. What's the chances that player hits? 16%
If you draft another player in the 6th it's still 16%
Not 32%

If you say we drafting 2 players instead of 1 then you can claim there is a better chance but you can't add percentages because each player in each round has their own certain percentage.

That's where the logic is flawed.

Your math is right, but its not looking for the same thing my math is. If you flip a coin twice, each individual flip has 50% chance to land heads, but you have a 75% chance of hitting AT LEAST ONE heads between the two flips. There are 4 outcomes:

HH
HT
TH
TT

Only one of those instances does not include a heads, therefore you have a 3/4 (75%) to hit at least one heads.

We take that same logic to the draft. With the original 3rd round pick, we have a better individual chance to hit on a player than any of the 5 picks we traded for. But we can only hit on one player with that pick. So if we are able to hit on just one of the 5 picks we traded for, at worst the trades were a wash. But again like the coin, since we're looking for AT LEAST one hit, our odds actually increase due to have multiple picks versus one. We also gain a chance to hit on multiple picks, which is impossible without trading.

If you want the math, you actually calculate the odds of missing all 5 picks (0.71*0.84*0.84*0.84*0.91) and then you subtract that number from 1. Rounded up you 0.62 or 62%

Yes I see what you are doing but you aren't picking between two players. What I mean is you can't use a right or a wrong player pick. There are 32 picks and they arent interchangeable.

By picking in the 3rd round we are saying our one pick is part of the 13 that will hit and not the 19 others who won't

In the 6th round we are assuming 2 of our picks will be part of the 5 picks that will hit and 27 that won't. And again each one is it's own separate pick.

Would you rather have 13 shots to get it right or 5 shots?

This doesn't even account for the talent gap and level of impact a 3rd vs 6th can have...

Last Edit: Sept 9, 2020 22:01:51 GMT -6 by legendsofthenorth

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 9, 2020 22:52:04 GMT -6

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Post by Minniman on Sept 9, 2020 22:52:04 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2020 20:09:30 GMT -6 HarryHits22 said:

Sept 9, 2020 16:32:08 GMT -6 Minniman said:

Aussie posted average success rates for late round picks. They are not good.

You say late round talent, but how many of them have been to the Pro Bowl? How many are All Pro? How many are bone fide starters instead of gap fillers and minor role players that can be replaced by players on the waiver wire? Some make the team, but do they push the team to the next level?

The Vikings have been a mediocre team for years - just good enough for the playoffs but not good enough to make it to the big game. Perhaps if the Vikings had filled some of those key starting positions with early draft picks instead of late picks and cast offs, they would have done better.

Just making the team isn't good enough; players must be good enough to make the team better.

Using the metric for what Aussie's article uses to determine if a player is a success or not, Christian Ponder was a successful draft pick. However, Anthony Harris wouldn't qualify as a successful player yet. Me thinks the numbers are a bit skewed.

But hey, lets just use those skewed numbers for fun, and see if the Viking draft trades were mathematically sound. We'll take the 2019 draft as an example, as Spielman added quite a few draft picks in the 3rd round from moving down that year, which has largely been the catalyst for this discussion. So let's break this down.

Using Aussie's article for reference, lets just use one position, we'll go with OL because it's fairly linear (if we used the DL success rate, the Vikings would actually gain odds by trading a 3rd or 2nd round pick straight up for a 4th round pick). Also we're going to be generous and pretend Alexander Mattison was a 4th round pick instead of a 3rd round pick, considering he was drafted at the bottom of the round. With that established, we had one pick in the 3rd round of 2019.

1 3rd round pick = 40% of hitting

We traded that pick for a "4th", 5th, two 6ths and a 7th.

1 4th round pick = 29% of hitting

1 5th round pick = 16%

2 6th round picks = 16% each

1 7th round pick = 9%

If we didn't trade down, we would have had a 40% chance to hit on one player. By trading down and adding 5 picks, we gain a 62% chance of hitting on at least one of the 5 picks, with the bonus of potentially hitting on multiple picks. From an analytical perspective, Spielman's draft strategy is sound, the numbers support trading down and having more "lottery tickets" to hit on. Of course, the draft isn't a science, so to some degree it depends on the evaluators in charge. But even the best evaluators miss far more often than they hit after the first 50 or so picks. Spielman trades down in the 3rd round to accumulate picks because the trade value those picks hold is a lot higher than the difference between player 80 and 100 on his board.

I'm not suggesting that Spielman and the Vikings are elite drafters due to this strategy, I'm simply saying that the strategy itself is incredibly sound, and any failure's are more attributed to Spielman and his scout's ability to evaluate and the team's ability to develop players.

It is only sound if those players hitting is the same value. Hitting on a quarters machine is not the same as hitting on the nickels machine. As I stated above, making the team is not enough. There are 6th and 7th round picks that the Vikings have kept around that hardly ever hit the field or stunk it up when they did. Sure, that happens with early picks too, but less so, and there is a much greater chance to get a blue chip player in the early rounds. Go through the drafts and look for players that have made the Pro Bowl multiple times or are All Pro. Most of them come from the first two rounds.

It is actually quite easy to accumulate late draft picks by moving down and early draft picks by trading your best players. If it was such a good strategy, many more teams would do it. If it was such a great strategy, the Vikings would have some Super Bowl Championship rings by now.

A GM can draft rooks, knights, and bishops and choose them wisely, or he can draft pawns and hope one can be exchanged for a queen. Which is the better strategy?

Logic is the beginning of wisdom - not the end.

HarryHits22
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 9, 2020 23:03:29 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by HarryHits22 on Sept 9, 2020 23:03:29 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2020 22:00:46 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Sept 9, 2020 20:55:07 GMT -6 HarryHits22 said:

Your math is right, but its not looking for the same thing my math is. If you flip a coin twice, each individual flip has 50% chance to land heads, but you have a 75% chance of hitting AT LEAST ONE heads between the two flips. There are 4 outcomes:

HH
HT
TH
TT

Only one of those instances does not include a heads, therefore you have a 3/4 (75%) to hit at least one heads.

We take that same logic to the draft. With the original 3rd round pick, we have a better individual chance to hit on a player than any of the 5 picks we traded for. But we can only hit on one player with that pick. So if we are able to hit on just one of the 5 picks we traded for, at worst the trades were a wash. But again like the coin, since we're looking for AT LEAST one hit, our odds actually increase due to have multiple picks versus one. We also gain a chance to hit on multiple picks, which is impossible without trading.

If you want the math, you actually calculate the odds of missing all 5 picks (0.71*0.84*0.84*0.84*0.91) and then you subtract that number from 1. Rounded up you 0.62 or 62%

Yes I see what you are doing but you aren't picking between two players. What I mean is you can't use a right or a wrong player pick. There are 32 picks and they arent interchangeable.

By picking in the 3rd round we are saying our one pick is part of the 13 that will hit and not the 19 others who won't

In the 6th round we are assuming 2 of our picks will be part of the 5 picks that will hit and 27 that won't. And again each one is it's own separate pick.

Would you rather have 13 shots to get it right or 5 shots?

This doesn't even account for the talent gap and level of impact a 3rd vs 6th can have...

Not that it really matters in the grand scheme, cause the percentages stay the same, but there are more than 32 picks in all the rounds beyond round 2.

Anyways, to answer your question, of course I would take the 3rd round pick over the 6th round pick. Thats obvious, but we're not comparing one to one. That is pointless, to evaluate whether its valuable to trade down you have to compare the picks you get as a package to the individual pick you originally had. The only way you "lose" the trade is if you miss on all 5 picks. Even if you miss on 4/5 picks, you've accomplished the most you could've with just the original pick. So again, you go back to my calculation of find the probability you hit on at least one of the picks in the package you traded for. I'm not sure I can explain this any clearer, so if you still disagree, I think we can just agree to disagree.

As for the impact of a 3rd round pick vs a 6th rounder, again comes down to odds. Odds are definitely better that a third rounder will have a bigger impact, but that's the whole point of this. You could get Danielle Hunter in the 3rd, or Pat Elflein, or Scott Crichton. You're most likely to get a very low impact player in the 6th, but you can also get Tom Brady or Antonio Brown. There are players of every caliber available at every point in the draft, the odds just go down as the draft goes on.... obviously.

legendsofthenorth
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 10, 2020 6:42:04 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by legendsofthenorth on Sept 10, 2020 6:42:04 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2020 23:03:29 GMT -6 HarryHits22 said:

Sept 9, 2020 22:00:46 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Yes I see what you are doing but you aren't picking between two players. What I mean is you can't use a right or a wrong player pick. There are 32 picks and they arent interchangeable.

By picking in the 3rd round we are saying our one pick is part of the 13 that will hit and not the 19 others who won't

In the 6th round we are assuming 2 of our picks will be part of the 5 picks that will hit and 27 that won't. And again each one is it's own separate pick.

Would you rather have 13 shots to get it right or 5 shots?

This doesn't even account for the talent gap and level of impact a 3rd vs 6th can have...

Not that it really matters in the grand scheme, cause the percentages stay the same, but there are more than 32 picks in all the rounds beyond round 2.

Anyways, to answer your question, of course I would take the 3rd round pick over the 6th round pick. Thats obvious, but we're not comparing one to one. That is pointless, to evaluate whether its valuable to trade down you have to compare the picks you get as a package to the individual pick you originally had. The only way you "lose" the trade is if you miss on all 5 picks. Even if you miss on 4/5 picks, you've accomplished the most you could've with just the original pick. So again, you go back to my calculation of find the probability you hit on at least one of the picks in the package you traded for. I'm not sure I can explain this any clearer, so if you still disagree, I think we can just agree to disagree.

As for the impact of a 3rd round pick vs a 6th rounder, again comes down to odds. Odds are definitely better that a third rounder will have a bigger impact, but that's the whole point of this. You could get Danielle Hunter in the 3rd, or Pat Elflein, or Scott Crichton. You're most likely to get a very low impact player in the 6th, but you can also get Tom Brady or Antonio Brown. There are players of every caliber available at every point in the draft, the odds just go down as the draft goes on.... obviously.

Yes we completely disagree on the statistical side of things. You combine all the picks as one entity and I say they are each their own entity. That's fine. I feel the same way as you, I can't explain it any clearer on my end either. Like you said agree to disagree.

Just one last question since you are using the 5 to 1 scenerio, where does the value stop on trading back for you?

Would you take your chances on three 1st rounders or 15 5-7ths?
How about 3 2nds vs 15 5-7ths?
How about 3 3rds vs 15 5-7ths?

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 10, 2020 7:00:12 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Sept 10, 2020 7:00:12 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2020 23:03:29 GMT -6 HarryHits22 said:

Sept 9, 2020 22:00:46 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Yes I see what you are doing but you aren't picking between two players. What I mean is you can't use a right or a wrong player pick. There are 32 picks and they arent interchangeable.

By picking in the 3rd round we are saying our one pick is part of the 13 that will hit and not the 19 others who won't

In the 6th round we are assuming 2 of our picks will be part of the 5 picks that will hit and 27 that won't. And again each one is it's own separate pick.

Would you rather have 13 shots to get it right or 5 shots?

This doesn't even account for the talent gap and level of impact a 3rd vs 6th can have...

Not that it really matters in the grand scheme, cause the percentages stay the same, but there are more than 32 picks in all the rounds beyond round 2.

Anyways, to answer your question, of course I would take the 3rd round pick over the 6th round pick. Thats obvious, but we're not comparing one to one. That is pointless, to evaluate whether its valuable to trade down you have to compare the picks you get as a package to the individual pick you originally had. The only way you "lose" the trade is if you miss on all 5 picks. Even if you miss on 4/5 picks, you've accomplished the most you could've with just the original pick. So again, you go back to my calculation of find the probability you hit on at least one of the picks in the package you traded for. I'm not sure I can explain this any clearer, so if you still disagree, I think we can just agree to disagree.

As for the impact of a 3rd round pick vs a 6th rounder, again comes down to odds. Odds are definitely better that a third rounder will have a bigger impact, but that's the whole point of this. You could get Danielle Hunter in the 3rd, or Pat Elflein, or Scott Crichton. You're most likely to get a very low impact player in the 6th, but you can also get Tom Brady or Antonio Brown. There are players of every caliber available at every point in the draft, the odds just go down as the draft goes on.... obviously.

Most years there isn't a Tom Brady or Antonio Brown in the 6th though. Since 2015 there hasn't been a single pro bowler selected in the 6th or 7th round. Why would you give up picks in a round that can actually produce impact players for picks in rounds that do not. Seems like a bad move.

vikingpwr Living Legend Posts: 21,398 Likes: 4,607	Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 10, 2020 11:19:27 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by vikingpwr on Sept 10, 2020 11:19:27 GMT -6 Sept 10, 2020 7:00:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said: Since 2015 there hasn't been a single pro bowler selected in the 6th or 7th round. Jason Kelce was a pro bowler in 2015 and he was a 6th rounder. How about undrafted guys?
	Last Edit: Sept 10, 2020 11:28:42 GMT -6 by vikingpwr

legendsofthenorth
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 10, 2020 14:22:35 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by legendsofthenorth on Sept 10, 2020 14:22:35 GMT -6

Sept 10, 2020 11:19:27 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Sept 10, 2020 7:00:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Since 2015 there hasn't been a single pro bowler selected in the 6th or 7th round.

Jason Kelce was a pro bowler in 2015 and he was a 6th rounder.

How about undrafted guys?

Didn't the post just say "since 2015"

😉

Last Edit: Sept 10, 2020 14:22:58 GMT -6 by legendsofthenorth

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 10, 2020 16:57:38 GMT -6

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Post by vikingpwr on Sept 10, 2020 16:57:38 GMT -6

Sept 10, 2020 14:22:35 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Sept 10, 2020 11:19:27 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Jason Kelce was a pro bowler in 2015 and he was a 6th rounder.

How about undrafted guys?

Didn't the post just say "since 2015"

😉

Jason Kelce was a pro bowler in 2016 as well....so was 6th rounder Antonio Brown. A lot of late rounders and undrafted guys play in the Pro Bowl every year.

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 10, 2020 18:23:59 GMT -6 Danchat likes this

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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2020 18:23:59 GMT -6

Sept 10, 2020 16:57:38 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Sept 10, 2020 14:22:35 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Didn't the post just say "since 2015"

😉

Jason Kelce was a pro bowler in 2016 as well....so was 6th rounder Antonio Brown. A lot of late rounders and undrafted guys play in the Pro Bowl every year.

I don't think the Pro Bowl metric is a good one.
Xavier Rhodes was a Pro Bowler last year *lol*

legendsofthenorth
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 10, 2020 19:48:13 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by legendsofthenorth on Sept 10, 2020 19:48:13 GMT -6

Sept 10, 2020 16:57:38 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Sept 10, 2020 14:22:35 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Didn't the post just say "since 2015"

😉

Jason Kelce was a pro bowler in 2016 as well....so was 6th rounder Antonio Brown. A lot of late rounders and undrafted guys play in the Pro Bowl every year.

My bad, you got me. That's 3 total pro bowls 😉

How many 2nd and 3rd rounders where?

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 11, 2020 9:13:21 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Sept 11, 2020 9:13:21 GMT -6

Sept 10, 2020 11:19:27 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Sept 10, 2020 7:00:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Since 2015 there hasn't been a single pro bowler selected in the 6th or 7th round.

Jason Kelce was a pro bowler in 2015 and he was a 6th rounder.

How about undrafted guys?

Yes, but Kelce was selected in 2011. I did not say there hasn't been a single pro bowler who has been selected in the 6th or 7th, I said there hasn't been a single pro bowler selected, as in there are 0 pro bowlers to come out of the 6th or 7th rounds in the 2015-2019 drafts. Sorry about not being more clear. Plus I missed one player, Trent Brown in 2015... Still, 1 in 5 years is a ridiculously low number that proves you don't get quality players late.

3rd round pro bowlers during that time frame is 12, 4th round is 7, 5th round is 5. After that you have a clear, massive drop-off of talent. One thing I did notice is that 5th round draft picks have had higher upsides than 4th rounders, with more All-pros drafted. Maybe Rick should focus less on accumulating 7th rounders and not waste 5th round picks on trading for bad kickers or drafting German WRs.

UDFA there are a lot more quality players found, and you actually have a better chance of finding good players in UDFA's than in the 6th or 7th round. Which is why you shouldn't trade down into those rounds. Trade up for quality, and get your depth in UDFAs.

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 11, 2020 9:14:37 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Sept 11, 2020 9:14:37 GMT -6

Sept 10, 2020 18:23:59 GMT -6 @aussie61 said:

Sept 10, 2020 16:57:38 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Jason Kelce was a pro bowler in 2016 as well....so was 6th rounder Antonio Brown. A lot of late rounders and undrafted guys play in the Pro Bowl every year.

I don't think the Pro Bowl metric is a good one.
Xavier Rhodes was a Pro Bowler last year *lol*

It doesn't necessarily reflect success in the current season, but it does typically reflect prior success. So for this use case, pro bowl is probably fine.

Last Edit: Sept 11, 2020 9:26:17 GMT -6 by whoskmoon

vikingpwr Living Legend Posts: 21,398 Likes: 4,607	Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 11, 2020 9:51:22 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by vikingpwr on Sept 11, 2020 9:51:22 GMT -6 Sept 10, 2020 18:23:59 GMT -6 @aussie61 said: I don't think the Pro Bowl metric is a good one. It's not and I agree with that 100%!

vikingpwr Living Legend Posts: 21,398 Likes: 4,607	Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 11, 2020 11:20:44 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by vikingpwr on Sept 11, 2020 11:20:44 GMT -6 Sept 11, 2020 9:13:21 GMT -6 whoskmoon said: Sorry about not being more clear. I see what you mean now.

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 11, 2020 18:11:39 GMT -6

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Post by Danchat on Sept 11, 2020 18:11:39 GMT -6

Sept 11, 2020 9:13:21 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

UDFA there are a lot more quality players found, and you actually have a better chance of finding good players in UDFA's than in the 6th or 7th round. Which is why you shouldn't trade down into those rounds. Trade up for quality, and get your depth in UDFAs.

But you have to bid and convince the players to join you as a UDFA... I think part of Spielman's strategy has been to get his favorite UDFA targets in the 7th round and bypass the bidding process. I remember reading that in the previous two drafts, LS Austin Cutting and SS Brian Cole II were going to sign elsewhere as UDFAs, but the Vikings took them near the end of the 7th round to get them. (And yes, teams negotiate UDFA deals while the 3rd day of the draft goes on, even when they aren't technically UDFAs yet)

But once again the potential gains or losses is minimal here... taking Spielman's approach, you get 7th rounders for chump change, or take another GM's approach and throw more money at UDFAs. I don't think there's much of a difference between the two approaches.