Vikings Cuts 2020

wivikesfan
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 8, 2020 5:23:33 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by wivikesfan on Sept 8, 2020 5:23:33 GMT -6

Sept 7, 2020 21:04:11 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Sept 7, 2020 20:19:50 GMT -6 Danchat said:

I think VikingsBoss is right. Chisena is going to be used as a gunner, but Beebe & Sharpe are going to be on the bench (Vikings use more 2 WR sets than any other team, Jefferson is 3rd WR). 11 D-linemen is quite a lot, and Holmes or Mata'afa would be the first cut from there. Abdullah lost his kick returning job to Osborn, so his only use is as a receiving back.

I think last year they were forced into it by injury to Thielen.

Last years WR
Thielen [injured]
Diggs
Bisi rookie
Treadwell
Beebe Injured

This years
Theilen
Bisi
Jefferson
Sharpe

I think they have the capability to be more of a 3 WR set this year. Many of the games we only had Diggs as a WR threat.

I just dont know who the down field threat will be. Hopefully Thielen. I am so interested in seeing how Kubiak attacks with this offense.

I am curious why one of Beebe or Sharpe was not cut.

I agree with you. Last year we had 3 wr personnel the least of any team in the league. I bet we are around league average this year

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 8, 2020 16:59:33 GMT -6

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Post by Danchat on Sept 8, 2020 16:59:33 GMT -6

Sept 7, 2020 22:48:38 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Sept 7, 2020 20:19:50 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Chisena is going to be used as a gunner

Undrafted Dan Chisena will take the same route as Adam Thielen in 2014, Anthony Harris 2015, 0 players in 2016, Eric Wilson 2017, Boone/Hill/Mata'afa in 2018, Jake Browning, Alexander Hollins, Nate Meadors, Mark Fields are still on our practice squad from 2019. 2020's class Jake Bargas, Blake Lynch made our practice squad this year along with Chisena....

4 starters since 2014 is not to bad.

I wouldn't put Chisena together with guys like Thielen and Harris...

Thielen at Minnesota State: 198 catches, 2802 yards, 20 TDs over 4 years

Chisena at Penn State: 3 catches, 66 yards (5 games in one year)

If Dan is going to make any impact while in the NFL, he's going to have the path of Matthew Slater (elite special teamer). I mean, Chisena had his position switched to safety a week ago!

vikingpwr Living Legend Posts: 21,398 Likes: 4,607	Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 8, 2020 17:18:23 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by vikingpwr on Sept 8, 2020 17:18:23 GMT -6 Sept 8, 2020 16:59:33 GMT -6 Danchat said: I wouldn't put Chisena together with guys like Thielen and Harris... What does that even mean?

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 8, 2020 17:49:34 GMT -6

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Post by Danchat on Sept 8, 2020 17:49:34 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2020 17:18:23 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Sept 8, 2020 16:59:33 GMT -6 Danchat said:

I wouldn't put Chisena together with guys like Thielen and Harris...

What does that even mean?

Thielen and Harris are Pro Bowl players, and you're grouping them together with a guy who barely knows how to play WR. Perhaps I misunderstood your point (you were just generally mentioning UDFAs). Thielen did start out as a special teamer but developed into a really good WR, but I don't see that happening for Chisena.

vikingpwr
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 8, 2020 18:47:59 GMT -6

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Post by vikingpwr on Sept 8, 2020 18:47:59 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2020 17:49:34 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Perhaps I misunderstood your point (you were just generally mentioning UDFAs).

Bingo! I wasn't implying that Chisena was the next Thielen or Harris. I was simply pointing out that UDFA Chisena will have to earn a spot on this team by playing special teams. Stop jumping the guy dannyboy.... *boom*

Sept 8, 2020 17:49:34 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Thielen did start out as a special teamer but developed into a really good WR, but I don't see that happening for Chisena.

I won't claim to know how a player will develop, but I'll tell ya, I can't wait to see Chisena as a gunner on our special teams unit.

whoskmoon
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 8, 2020 19:22:50 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Sept 8, 2020 19:22:50 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2020 18:47:59 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Sept 8, 2020 17:49:34 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Perhaps I misunderstood your point (you were just generally mentioning UDFAs).

Bingo! I wasn't implying that Chisena was the next Thielen or Harris. I was simply pointing out that UDFA Chisena will have to earn a spot on this team by playing special teams. Stop jumping the guy dannyboy.... *boom*

Sept 8, 2020 17:49:34 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Thielen did start out as a special teamer but developed into a really good WR, but I don't see that happening for Chisena.

I won't claim to know how a player will develop, but I'll tell ya, I can't wait to see Chisena as a gunner on our special teams unit.

Yes, that should be riveting football.

Last Edit: Sept 8, 2020 19:23:38 GMT -6 by whoskmoon

vikingpwr Living Legend Posts: 21,398 Likes: 4,607	Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 8, 2020 23:26:01 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by vikingpwr on Sept 8, 2020 23:26:01 GMT -6 Sept 8, 2020 19:22:50 GMT -6 whoskmoon said: Yes, that should be riveting football. Yes it should.......

Minniman
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 9, 2020 0:16:28 GMT -6

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Post by Minniman on Sept 9, 2020 0:16:28 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2020 22:16:59 GMT -6 @aussie61 said:

Sept 5, 2020 21:07:01 GMT -6 wivikesfan said:

However when you talk about the hot rate from the 5th round through the 7th round, the hit rate is not that different. I'd say it is more about quantity once you get into the later rounds.

I've busted this myth so many times,and posted the stats so many times,but it still keeps coming up.

Here's a couple examples:

OL

RD	SUCCESS RATE
4	29%
5	16%
6	16%
7	9%

DL

RD	SUCCESS RATE
4	37%
5	13%
6	13%
7	3%

Draft a DL in round 4 and you have a 37% chance of him working out.Drafting a DL in each of the 5th,6th and 7th rounds and you have a 13% chance of the 5th or 6th rounder working out or a 3% chance of the 7th rounder working out.
It's similar for OT and it carries through for every position.

Give me quality over quantity every time.

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 9, 2020 0:33:42 GMT -6

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Post by Minniman on Sept 9, 2020 0:33:42 GMT -6

Sept 5, 2020 19:17:08 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Sept 5, 2020 18:57:10 GMT -6 wivikesfan said:

It might be a little early to declare that. If we can get a few guys back on our practice squad maybe someone will develop. Its not like we haven't developed players who did nothing early... Theilen and Harris are two pretty good examples!

Sharmar Stephen, Stephen Weatherly, Jayron Kearse, Ifeadi Odenigbo, Armon Watts, Oli, Kris Boyd, Bisi Johnson, Austin Cutting

Better get out your checkbook for the big contracts these guys will be asking.

Thielen and Harris are outliers. The rest may contribute, but how many are genuine starters that will take the Vikings to the next level?

A team that has many late round draft picks, instead of a few earlier picks, will tend to sign more late round draft picks. Does that make the GM good at finding late round talent or bad at finding early round talent?

The Vikings can't even figure out which third QB they should keep while only having two safeties on the 53 man roster. Expect Smith or Harris to get worn down and one or both to blow a tire unless a cornerback is groomed to play safety.

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vikingpwr
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 9, 2020 12:13:12 GMT -6

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Post by vikingpwr on Sept 9, 2020 12:13:12 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2020 0:33:42 GMT -6 Minniman said:

Thielen and Harris are outliers. The rest may contribute, but how many are genuine starters that will take the Vikings to the next level?

You're absolutely right. Thielen and Harris are outliers. Not many UDFAs make an impact like they have. Holton Hill might be the next player to do it. IMO Hill is trending in that direction.

Sept 9, 2020 0:33:42 GMT -6 Minniman said:

A team that has many late round draft picks, instead of a few earlier picks, will tend to sign more late round draft picks.

First off I'm talking about the Vikings late round picks and undrafted players since 2014. I have no idea how the other 31 teams deal with those such players or what the success rate is. I'm sure there are many varibles on this topic like how many players are signed on a roster pre-draft. Also, all teams manage their salary cap differently from year to year. Throw in COVID-19 this year and you can get some idea the complexity of getting some of these late round/undrafted players on your roster... Again, I'm only going by what the Vikings have done since 2014.

Sept 9, 2020 0:33:42 GMT -6 Minniman said:

Does that make the GM good at finding late round talent or bad at finding early round talent?

Ricky has found some late round talent and some undrafted gems since 2014. IMO he's done a good job for the most part in this area.

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 9, 2020 16:32:08 GMT -6 vikingpitbull likes this

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Post by Minniman on Sept 9, 2020 16:32:08 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2020 12:13:12 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Sept 9, 2020 0:33:42 GMT -6 Minniman said:

Thielen and Harris are outliers. The rest may contribute, but how many are genuine starters that will take the Vikings to the next level?

You're absolutely right. Thielen and Harris are outliers. Not many UDFAs make an impact like they have. Holton Hill might be the next player to do it. IMO Hill is trending in that direction.

How do UDFAs affect trading down for late draft picks? They are really out of the equation other than to indicate that Spielman used his vast number of late picks for some of the wrong players.

Sept 9, 2020 0:33:42 GMT -6 Minniman said:

A team that has many late round draft picks, instead of a few earlier picks, will tend to sign more late round draft picks.

First off I'm talking about the Vikings late round picks and undrafted players since 2014. I have no idea how the other 31 teams deal with those such players or what the success rate is. I'm sure there are many varibles on this topic like how many players are signed on a roster pre-draft. Also, all teams manage their salary cap differently from year to year. Throw in COVID-19 this year and you can get some idea the complexity of getting some of these late round/undrafted players on your roster... Again, I'm only going by what the Vikings have done since 2014.

Aussie posted average success rates for late round picks. They are not good.

Sept 9, 2020 0:33:42 GMT -6 Minniman said:

Does that make the GM good at finding late round talent or bad at finding early round talent?

Ricky has found some late round talent and some undrafted gems since 2014. IMO he's done a good job for the most part in this area.

Thielen came to the Vikings, Spielman did not come to Thielen.

You say late round talent, but how many of them have been to the Pro Bowl? How many are All Pro? How many are bone fide starters instead of gap fillers and minor role players that can be replaced by players on the waiver wire? Some make the team, but do they push the team to the next level?

The Vikings have been a mediocre team for years - just good enough for the playoffs but not good enough to make it to the big game. Perhaps if the Vikings had filled some of those key starting positions with early draft picks instead of late picks and cast offs, they would have done better.

Just making the team isn't good enough; players must be good enough to make the team better.

Last Edit: Sept 9, 2020 17:13:55 GMT -6 by Minniman

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HarryHits22
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 9, 2020 20:09:30 GMT -6 Danchat likes this

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Post by HarryHits22 on Sept 9, 2020 20:09:30 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2020 16:32:08 GMT -6 Minniman said:

Sept 9, 2020 12:13:12 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

You're absolutely right. Thielen and Harris are outliers. Not many UDFAs make an impact like they have. Holton Hill might be the next player to do it. IMO Hill is trending in that direction.

How do UDFAs affect trading down for late draft picks? They are really out of the equation other than to indicate that Spielman used his vast number of late picks for some of the wrong players.

First off I'm talking about the Vikings late round picks and undrafted players since 2014. I have no idea how the other 31 teams deal with those such players or what the success rate is. I'm sure there are many varibles on this topic like how many players are signed on a roster pre-draft. Also, all teams manage their salary cap differently from year to year. Throw in COVID-19 this year and you can get some idea the complexity of getting some of these late round/undrafted players on your roster... Again, I'm only going by what the Vikings have done since 2014.

Aussie posted average success rates for late round picks. They are not good.

Ricky has found some late round talent and some undrafted gems since 2014. IMO he's done a good job for the most part in this area.

Thielen came to the Vikings, Spielman did not come to Thielen.

You say late round talent, but how many of them have been to the Pro Bowl? How many are All Pro? How many are bone fide starters instead of gap fillers and minor role players that can be replaced by players on the waiver wire? Some make the team, but do they push the team to the next level?

The Vikings have been a mediocre team for years - just good enough for the playoffs but not good enough to make it to the big game. Perhaps if the Vikings had filled some of those key starting positions with early draft picks instead of late picks and cast offs, they would have done better.

Just making the team isn't good enough; players must be good enough to make the team better.

Using the metric for what Aussie's article uses to determine if a player is a success or not, Christian Ponder was a successful draft pick. However, Anthony Harris wouldn't qualify as a successful player yet. Me thinks the numbers are a bit skewed.

But hey, lets just use those skewed numbers for fun, and see if the Viking draft trades were mathematically sound. We'll take the 2019 draft as an example, as Spielman added quite a few draft picks in the 3rd round from moving down that year, which has largely been the catalyst for this discussion. So let's break this down.

Using Aussie's article for reference, lets just use one position, we'll go with OL because it's fairly linear (if we used the DL success rate, the Vikings would actually gain odds by trading a 3rd or 2nd round pick straight up for a 4th round pick). Also we're going to be generous and pretend Alexander Mattison was a 4th round pick instead of a 3rd round pick, considering he was drafted at the bottom of the round. With that established, we had one pick in the 3rd round of 2019.

1 3rd round pick = 40% of hitting

We traded that pick for a "4th", 5th, two 6ths and a 7th.

1 4th round pick = 29% of hitting

1 5th round pick = 16%

2 6th round picks = 16% each

1 7th round pick = 9%

If we didn't trade down, we would have had a 40% chance to hit on one player. By trading down and adding 5 picks, we gain a 62% chance of hitting on at least one of the 5 picks, with the bonus of potentially hitting on multiple picks. From an analytical perspective, Spielman's draft strategy is sound, the numbers support trading down and having more "lottery tickets" to hit on. Of course, the draft isn't a science, so to some degree it depends on the evaluators in charge. But even the best evaluators miss far more often than they hit after the first 50 or so picks. Spielman trades down in the 3rd round to accumulate picks because the trade value those picks hold is a lot higher than the difference between player 80 and 100 on his board.

I'm not suggesting that Spielman and the Vikings are elite drafters due to this strategy, I'm simply saying that the strategy itself is incredibly sound, and any failure's are more attributed to Spielman and his scout's ability to evaluate and the team's ability to develop players.

Last Edit: Sept 9, 2020 20:12:36 GMT -6 by HarryHits22

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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 9, 2020 20:35:48 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by legendsofthenorth on Sept 9, 2020 20:35:48 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2020 20:09:30 GMT -6 HarryHits22 said:

Sept 9, 2020 16:32:08 GMT -6 Minniman said:

How do UDFAs affect trading down for late draft picks? They are really out of the equation other than to indicate that Spielman used his vast number of late picks for some of the wrong players.

Aussie posted average success rates for late round picks. They are not good.

Thielen came to the Vikings, Spielman did not come to Thielen.

You say late round talent, but how many of them have been to the Pro Bowl? How many are All Pro? How many are bone fide starters instead of gap fillers and minor role players that can be replaced by players on the waiver wire? Some make the team, but do they push the team to the next level?

The Vikings have been a mediocre team for years - just good enough for the playoffs but not good enough to make it to the big game. Perhaps if the Vikings had filled some of those key starting positions with early draft picks instead of late picks and cast offs, they would have done better.

Just making the team isn't good enough; players must be good enough to make the team better.

Using the metric for what Aussie's article uses to determine if a player is a success or not, Christian Ponder was a successful draft pick. However, Anthony Harris wouldn't qualify as a successful player yet. Me thinks the numbers are a bit skewed.

But hey, lets just use those skewed numbers for fun, and see if the Viking draft trades were mathematically sound. We'll take the 2019 draft as an example, as Spielman added quite a few draft picks in the 3rd round from moving down that year, which has largely been the catalyst for this discussion. So let's break this down.

Using Aussie's article for reference, lets just use one position, we'll go with OL because it's fairly linear (if we used the DL success rate, the Vikings would actually gain odds by trading a 3rd or 2nd round pick straight up for a 4th round pick). Also we're going to be generous and pretend Alexander Mattison was a 4th round pick instead of a 3rd round pick, considering he was drafted at the bottom of the round. With that established, we had one pick in the 3rd round of 2019.

1 3rd round pick = 40% of hitting

We traded that pick for a "4th", 5th, two 6ths and a 7th.

1 4th round pick = 29% of hitting

1 5th round pick = 16%

2 6th round picks = 16% each

1 7th round pick = 9%

If we didn't trade down, we would have had a 40% chance to hit on one player. By trading down and adding 5 picks, we gain a 62% chance of hitting on at least one of the 5 picks, with the bonus of potentially hitting on multiple picks. From an analytical perspective, Spielman's draft strategy is sound, the numbers support trading down and having more "lottery tickets" to hit on. Of course, the draft isn't a science, so to some degree it depends on the evaluators in charge. But even the best evaluators miss far more often than they hit after the first 50 or so picks. Spielman trades down in the 3rd round to accumulate picks because the trade value those picks hold is a lot higher than the difference between player 80 and 100 on his board.

I'm not suggesting that Spielman and the Vikings are elite drafters due to this strategy, I'm simply saying that the strategy itself is incredibly sound, and any failure's are more attributed to Spielman and his scout's ability to evaluate and the team's ability to develop players.

You are wrong on your math.

If you flip a coin what's the chance it lands heads. 50 % right?
Now flip it again. What's percentage? 50%
Not 100%

If you draft a player in the 6th round. What's the chances that player hits? 16%
If you draft another player in the 6th it's still 16%
Not 32%

If you say we drafting 2 players instead of 1 then you can claim there is a better chance but you can't add percentages because each player in each round has their own certain percentage.

That's where the logic is flawed.

vikingpwr
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 9, 2020 20:36:43 GMT -6

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Post by vikingpwr on Sept 9, 2020 20:36:43 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2020 16:32:08 GMT -6 Minniman said:

How do UDFAs affect trading down for late draft picks?

I don't believe they do. And all this time I thought we were discussing the development of late rounders and UDFAs the Vikings have acquired since 2014. Players on the current roster.........oh well, never mind.

Last Edit: Sept 9, 2020 20:37:42 GMT -6 by vikingpwr

HarryHits22
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Vikings Cuts 2020 Sept 9, 2020 20:55:07 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by HarryHits22 on Sept 9, 2020 20:55:07 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2020 20:35:48 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Sept 9, 2020 20:09:30 GMT -6 HarryHits22 said:

Using the metric for what Aussie's article uses to determine if a player is a success or not, Christian Ponder was a successful draft pick. However, Anthony Harris wouldn't qualify as a successful player yet. Me thinks the numbers are a bit skewed.

But hey, lets just use those skewed numbers for fun, and see if the Viking draft trades were mathematically sound. We'll take the 2019 draft as an example, as Spielman added quite a few draft picks in the 3rd round from moving down that year, which has largely been the catalyst for this discussion. So let's break this down.

Using Aussie's article for reference, lets just use one position, we'll go with OL because it's fairly linear (if we used the DL success rate, the Vikings would actually gain odds by trading a 3rd or 2nd round pick straight up for a 4th round pick). Also we're going to be generous and pretend Alexander Mattison was a 4th round pick instead of a 3rd round pick, considering he was drafted at the bottom of the round. With that established, we had one pick in the 3rd round of 2019.

1 3rd round pick = 40% of hitting

We traded that pick for a "4th", 5th, two 6ths and a 7th.

1 4th round pick = 29% of hitting

1 5th round pick = 16%

2 6th round picks = 16% each

1 7th round pick = 9%

If we didn't trade down, we would have had a 40% chance to hit on one player. By trading down and adding 5 picks, we gain a 62% chance of hitting on at least one of the 5 picks, with the bonus of potentially hitting on multiple picks. From an analytical perspective, Spielman's draft strategy is sound, the numbers support trading down and having more "lottery tickets" to hit on. Of course, the draft isn't a science, so to some degree it depends on the evaluators in charge. But even the best evaluators miss far more often than they hit after the first 50 or so picks. Spielman trades down in the 3rd round to accumulate picks because the trade value those picks hold is a lot higher than the difference between player 80 and 100 on his board.

I'm not suggesting that Spielman and the Vikings are elite drafters due to this strategy, I'm simply saying that the strategy itself is incredibly sound, and any failure's are more attributed to Spielman and his scout's ability to evaluate and the team's ability to develop players.

You are wrong on your math.

If you flip a coin what's the chance it lands heads. 50 % right?
Now flip it again. What's percentage? 50%
Not 100%

If you draft a player in the 6th round. What's the chances that player hits? 16%
If you draft another player in the 6th it's still 16%
Not 32%

If you say we drafting 2 players instead of 1 then you can claim there is a better chance but you can't add percentages because each player in each round has their own certain percentage.

That's where the logic is flawed.

Your math is right, but its not looking for the same thing my math is. If you flip a coin twice, each individual flip has 50% chance to land heads, but you have a 75% chance of hitting AT LEAST ONE heads between the two flips. There are 4 outcomes:

HH
HT
TH
TT

Only one of those instances does not include a heads, therefore you have a 3/4 (75%) to hit at least one heads.

We take that same logic to the draft. With the original 3rd round pick, we have a better individual chance to hit on a player than any of the 5 picks we traded for. But we can only hit on one player with that pick. So if we are able to hit on just one of the 5 picks we traded for, at worst the trades were a wash. But again like the coin, since we're looking for AT LEAST one hit, our odds actually increase due to having multiple picks versus one. We also gain a chance to hit on multiple picks, which is impossible without trading.

If you want the math, you actually calculate the odds of missing all 5 picks (0.71*0.84*0.84*0.84*0.91) and then you subtract that number from 1. Rounded up you get 0.62 or 62%

Last Edit: Sept 9, 2020 22:02:13 GMT -6 by HarryHits22