Kirk Cousins: Under Pressure

Narrative follows every player in the league. For Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins, the overriding negative narrative is that he is not a quarterback who handles pressure particularly well. Be it the pressure of bright lights on prime time television or the pressure of a 265-pound defensive end barreling down on him, Cousins has earned a reputation as a quarterback who crumbles when the going gets tough.

The narrative bears some truth in both senses. While Cousins is still a plenty capable starting quarterback — in fact, a verifiably good one — it is tough to make the case that he does not falter when the spotlight is on. For now, though, let us focus on Cousins’ play under the physical sense of pressure: incoming pass-rushers.

The pressure-related duality of Cousins is not a matter of subjectivity. Per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, Cousins has consistently shown a discrepancy between his play under pressure and play without pressure that is wider than league-average, almost robotically so. Year-in, year-out, Cousins is slightly below-average under pressure while residing comfortably, though not remarkably, above-average versus no pressure.



One way to frame the data is that Cousins is not necessarily bad under pressure; he is just much worse than without pressure. Cousins hovered below-average (even if barely) versus pressure in three of five seasons and is on-average worse than league-average over his five years as a starter. A roughly minus-6% difference in DVOA is not damning, though.

His middling play versus pressure is not the lone issue. Rather, his non-pressure play is so consistent and quality that, by comparison, his play under pressure being average or slightly below feels especially damaging to his overall success. Cousins’ roughly minus-20% gap between his average difference of performance and the league’s average difference of performance is made up primarily by his plus-15% DVOA when operating without pressure, not his roughly minus-6% DVOA when operating under pressure.

That sentiment is also accentuated by Cousins’ lack of “wow” plays in general. There is no counterbalance of the extremes for his miscues. Cousins is always good for a solid seven- or eight-out-of-10 on a given play, but seldom does he provide those 10 out of 10 moments. On the other hand, some of Cousins’ misplays under pressure can be horrific.

Everyone reading this can all too clearly remember a handful of instances wherein Cousins looked like a deer in the headlights versus pressure and delivered a spectacularly catastrophic ball. And even if he does not do that all the time, those memories still stick out in our minds because of their overtness. Those plays are tough to forget whether you want to forget them or not.

Cousins’ performance against pressure is deeper than the numbers, too. It is not just that Cousins has a track record of being average or slightly below versus pressure, it is that the particular situations in which he can and can not handle pressure is as clear as any quarterback in the league.

In general, pressure plays can be binned into two categories: on-schedule with defenders closing in, or forced off-schedule. At least on film, Cousins is plenty capable in executing the former scenario, but the latter scenario leaves him completely lifeless. His issues under pressure are far more often a matter of creativity and mobility, not a matter of fortitude.

At this stage in his career, it feels as there is no fixing this lack of creativity and mobility, either. Sometimes younger players with these same issues can develop out of it to some degree as they mature. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is a good example. Sure, he is no Russell Wilson now, but Ryan was once a horrific performer under pressure who developed a better sense of how to problem-solve when there was no clear answer for him. That change happened for Ryan gradually throughout his young career.

If that were also going to happen for Cousins, it would have by now. But it hasn’t. This just is who Cousins is.

Again, that is not to invalidate Cousins’ overall qualities or his many positive traits, but rather to maintain focus on where and when we should expect Cousins to perform. He is a perfectly mediocre player under pressure, yet still good enough elsewhere to regularly propel his teams to nine-plus wins. Assuming the offensive line does not collapse or become riddled with injuries, Cousins should be able to guide the Vikings offense to another top-10ish finish through his quality non-pressure play.