What The Mock Drafts Say - Vikings 2020

It's interesting to see what our draft could look like while trading up like this.  My two favorite trade ups would be Wills or Lamb so you get my approval!  Plus, I think it really makes sense to trade up for one of the top tier guys, period, than to stay put and get two good but not any of the "best" prospects at whatever position.  Then trade down from 25 like you did since there is so much 2nd round talent in this draft.  

If we didn't trade up for Lamb, Mims at #25 or Pittman at #58 are my next best possible outcomes (I've been banging the table for the WR's I like, so talented, and like you said a potent #2 is more important than most people think) but I see you have Pittman going to SF at #31!  I was high on Dante Pettis and SF took him so maybe they will just take my favorite WR's now lol.  Granted Pettis hasn't shown good work ethic and is quickly falling out of favor but I digress

I get the need tiers, I just see talent at WR and OT and think "get the most talented players" and if we traded up for Wills and drafted Mims at #25, still get Ojemudia and a physically gifted DE for Patterson to mold, I feel like we'd be looking good!  Even if we would be a little more thin in some areas without trading back at #25.  Do you think your mock is ideal for us or was that more of a "I'm gonna run with this report that we may want Lamb and see how it goes" kind of thing?

And oh yeah, Welcome to the board!

If we move up for an OL, I hope it's for Tristan Wirfs (if he doesn't go #4 to NYG) because at the very least, he's a perfect guard option for year one and then could kick him out to replace Reiff in 2021 like how Miami handled Laremy Tunsil.

But as for ideal, it is a mock that I really liked how things ended up falling for us. It was a mix of running with the rumor and trying to get the most value and give the biggest upgrades at each position across the board.

To be fair, they really haven't had any opportunity to given Gettleman doesn't like to trade. Outside of Quenton Nelson at 6 when they took Barkley at 2 and MAYBE Justin Pugh who went five picks after their pick in 2013, there haven't been any OL of Gettleman's preference (hog mollies) that would realistically go where they were drafting in the first. They did take Will Hernandez at 34 a couple years ago, which is just two picks out of the first, so he still addressed it fairly early, but this is the first year that he has that opportunity without reaching, which is why Wirfs has been a trending pick as of late. Local beat writers said DG and crew loved Wirfs back in January and then the Simmons hype happened which kind of hid that Wirfs love but it's coming back now. So it'll be interesting to see what they actually do. 

Also...and this is just purely my speculation on which I could be totally wrong....I think the Vikings feel set at DT. I think they plan to use Stephen, Watts, etc. I also believe the "trade up for Lamb" and "desperate" for a WR are smoke screens.

Also, I want to push back on this "Kubiak loves 2 WR)

2019: Only one receiver with more than 75 targets
2012: Only one receiver with more than 75 targets. Second leading receiver was a TE
2011: Leading targets were to a TE and a RB
2010: 2 receivers with over 75 targets, but Walters only barely cleared it and was still out targeted by Foster
2009: Only one receiver with more than 75 targets
2008: 3 with targets over 75: a WR, TE, WR. Johnson, Daniels, Walters
2007: 3 again: Walter, Daniels, Johnson
2006: 2: Johnson and Eric Moulds (but just barely)

I'm not seeing this necessity for two receivers. And I'm certainly not seeing the need to find one at 11. Andre Johnson was a beast and Walters was fine. With Thielen in the fold, I don't think we need someone like CeeDee Lamb to equal Johnson/Walters. This is a coordinator that will spread out targets.

To push back on this, Kubiak doesn't always use his receivers as pure threats for numbers, but also as a way to open up the field for the running back - it keeps the defense honest and from stacking the box.

And if you look at his best teams and the three teams he's been a part of to win a Super Bowl (2 as the OC, 1 as the HC), both his WR1 and WR2 had 1000+ yards that season. On average, during his time as an OC in Denver from 1995-2005, HC in Houston from 2006-2013, and then OC/HC again in Denver from 2014-2016, his WR1 averaged 1233 yards per season and his WR2 averaged 887 yards per season (and that's with a few seasons if injuries cutting players annual numbers short).

It's also a little disingenuous to say that 2019 only had one receiver with more than 75 targets as Thielen missed 6 games last season so targets were split between receivers due to availability, not purely due to scheme preference. Same goes with Walters in Houston - when he wasn't injured and played all 16 games, he had 75+ targets in each of those seasons (106, 95, and 80). And if you go back to his time as OC in Denver, the WR2 had at least 81 targets in all ten seasons with the exception of one when WR2 Ed McCaffrey was injured early on in the season and so his replacement finished with 76. And in those ten seasons, the WR1 and WR2 each had 100+ targets four times.

He likes to have that WR2 because he runs so few sets with 3 or more receivers (just under 16% of our snaps last year featured more than 2 WRs on the field) - that's why he's valued the WR2 role more because they feature them more heavily than other offensive schemes. I'm not saying we HAVE to move up to 11 to take a wideout, I'm just saying I think it's both more likely than some people think and it makes sense given Kubiak's history and offensive scheme.


Also, re: the rumors bit, I haven't seen anything saying they're "desperate". I've seen two local writers leak they are looking to move up for Lamb and then the national rumor shortly thereafter was that the Vikings don't feel they need to address WR until round three or later, and given how quickly that one came out after the Lamb rumor and that it was counter to the Lamb rumor, it makes me wonder if it's Spielman throwing smoke to cover up the Lamb rumor or disguise the fact they want to address it early (even if it isn't move all the way up for Lamb).

He had Elway for 4 out of the 10 years there and only one of those years was one with WR1/WR2 and 100+ targets. So he still did it without Elway (looking at you Jake Plummer and Brian Griese). 

And I literally had just said we don't HAVE to move up to 11 to get a star WR, but that Kubiak prefers to have a solid WR2 and so it's a possibility come next weekend. Not that he "needs" a star WR as his WR2 or even that we will for sure, just that he likes to have a solid WR2 and values it since they run so many 2WR sets and so it's merely an option that people aren't considering enough IMO.

But I suppose we'll just have to agree to disagree and leave it at that since we clearly don't see eye-to-eye on it.

I think talking about Lamb as getting a WR2 is under selling Lamb. Yes Thielen is great, but Lamb is an extremely high upside WR1 that likely takes that title sooner rather than later but can act as an elite WR2 in the mean time. It just makes a lot of sense if you're only running 2 WR's a good amount of the time to have two strong receivers.

I think a lot of the "wait till later" crowd when it comes to WR doesn't realize you'd be putting a Van Jefferson or Tyler Johnson out there in a major role, guys I like, but who have questions if they can even make an impact, let alone handle such a big job.

Waiting for WR makes sense for the teams who run 3 WR's a majority of the time and you're looking to upgrade your 3rd guy, then it's not such a big deal to put raw guys / projects like Aiyuk or K.J. Hamler out there but it'd be a terrible idea for us.