2013 NFL Draft: Six Years Later

Quarterbacks

Conventional Wisdom: After a couple of years of highly touted classes, scouts were underwhelmed by the 2013 class. No Andrew Luck, no Robert Griffin. Several scouts claimed that there wasn't a single legitimate first-round quarterback available; that the teams that were in need of a quarterback (the Jaguars and Blaine Gabbert, Chip Kelly's brand new Eagles, the Brandon Weeden-led Browns…) were more or less out of luck. Without a clear top prospect available, consensus eventually settled on West Virginia's Geno Smith as the top name on the board. He was touted for his quick delivery, athleticism, arm strength, and competitive nature, but concerns about his accuracy and West Virginia's gimmicky spread offense -- imagine, using the shotgun all the time? -- had many scouts down on his potential.

After Smith, things entered a bit of a mush. USC's Matt Barkley opted not to come out early in the quarterback-heavy 2012 class, and started the next fall penciled in as the top overall pick. However, with a poor season and a shoulder injury, he tumbled down draft boards, with some saying he could fall to late in the third round. Syracuse's Ryan Nassib was the annual rifle-armed prospect who had scouts drooling, and ignoring warning signs like throwing the ball into coverage too often or sailing it away. His college head coach, Doug Marrone, was now head coach of quarterback-needy Buffalo, making it an obvious fit.

While those three were the most commonly mentioned names, a few others occasionally bubbled to the top. Florida State's EJ Manuel was a physically gifted player with some decision-making question marks; he was favorably compared to Blaine Gabbert. North Carolina State's Mike Glennon also got some pre-draft praise, and a small, but vocal, minority touted Arkansas' Tyler Wilson as possibly the best in the class overall.

Here at Football Outsiders, LCF v.2.0 was much more bullish on the class than scouts in general. Smith was the kind of passer that LCF loved -- a three-year starter with a high completion rate? Yes, please. With years of experience as a starter, Nassib and Manuel rated highly as well. Manuel was described as a "better college quarterback than you might realize." Oklahoma's Landry Jones was given the label of "Asterisk Part II," a reference to Russell Wilson's stellar LCF projection a year earlier for a player who was not expected to go in the first three rounds.

Highest Pick: Manuel, 16th overall to Buffalo.

Best Player: There's not a standout in the lot. Smith probably wins by default; he's the only player to have started more than one season from the class. Taken 39th overall by the Jets, Smith got the nod over Mark Sanchez as a rookie, thanks to Sanchez's shoulder injury. He had a -23.6% DVOA that year, but did lead the Jets to an 8-8 record. The Jets tumbled to 4-12 the next year, Smith fractured his jaw when his teammate punched him in the face, Ryan Fitzpatrick took over, and Smith has been a clipboard holder ever since. That's your star of the class. He is, at least, still employed, and considered an acceptable backup option.

Biggest Bust: The Bills did, as expected, take a quarterback. They didn't take Nassib, though -- instead, they went for Manuel, after trading down eight spots with St. Louis. Manuel ended up being the only first-round quarterback taken in a draft where zero first-round quarterbacks should have been taken. As a rookie, Manuel had a 4-6 record with a -19.9% DVOA, which was good enough to get him tabbed as the starter in 2014. That lasted just four games before he was pulled for Kyle Orton, and Manuel has never won a game as a starter since, getting only occasional spot starts since then. He spent 2018 out of football, and is currently fighting for a spot on Kansas City's roster. At least the Bills traded down for him, allowing them to grab Kiko Alonso in the second round.

Best Value: Calling any of these passers "valuable" is ridiculous. Bill Barnwell recently labeled this crop of passers as the worst in draft history, and he's not wrong.

If I had to pick one, I suppose Glennon came closest. Taken in the third round by Tampa Bay, Glennon took over from Josh Freeman a month into the season, finishing with a -7.7% DVOA and a 4-9 record as a starter. He turned that rookie year and good hype as a backup for Josh McCown and Jameis Winston into a massive contract with the Chicago Bears, where he lasted for just four games before getting benched for Mitchell Trubisky. He has the most passing touchdowns of anyone in the class, and is currently a backup in Oakland.

Defensive Linemen

Conventional Wisdom: Many scouts were still mixing up defensive linemen and edge rushers, but we were starting to see people consider the 3-4 linebacker and 4-3 defensive end as the same position. Baby steps. We're just going to look at actual interior linemen as we'd consider them today, here.

The experts generally agreed that the top three tackles, in order, were Florida's Sharrif Floyd, Utah's Star Lotulelei, and Missouri's Sheldon Richardson, with North Carolina's Sylvester Williams generally rounding out the players considered worthy of first-round selections. There was some disagreement as to where each player would succeed, however. Floyd was generally considered the top 4-3 tackle or 3-4 end prospect, with Lotulelei as the top nose tackle prospect in the draft. Lotulelei could hang in as a 4-3 tackle, but Richardson was considered the better prospect there.

The wild card was Datone Jones out of UCLA, as no one really knew exactly where his ideal position would be -- some considered him an obvious edge rushing prospect, with 13.5 sacks in four years, but others said that he was better as an interior rusher or a 3-4 end, rather than being the primary edge rushing talent. As such, it's hard to place him in either the DL or EDGE grouping in retrospect; Football Outsiders chose to leave him out of SackSEER, so that's what we'll work with.

Two players with the same last name and very different paths to the league turned heads in the next tier down, in Alabama's Jesse Williams and Missouri Southern's Brandon Williams. Jesse, from Australia, had little background in the game but proved a fast learner with ideal size. Brandon was the Division II national player of the year with impressive strength. Alongside them were players like Ohio State's Johnathan Hankins, Purdue's Kawann Short, and LSU's Bennie Logan.

Highest Pick: Richardson, 13th overall to the New York Jets.

Best Player: The pundits were right to put Richardson in the top grouping, but they got the order wrong -- he was a hit right off the bat, earning Defensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2013. Off-field issues caused him to wear out his welcome in New York, but he has continued to be a very good player for Seattle, Minnesota, and now Cleveland. Lotulelei has been a solid, if unspectacular, first for Carolina and now Buffalo. As for the third guy...

Biggest Bust: Floyd fell to 23rd overall, taken by Minnesota. He seemed to be on a good arc for his first three seasons -- inconsistent, for sure, but flashing great run defense and solid interior penetration on passing plays as well. Then the injuries piled up. After missing some time with foot and knee injuries in 2014 and 2015, Floyd played in just one game in 2016 before requiring a "clean-up" operation on his knee that was expected to cost him about a month. A month turned into a season-long stint on the IR, which turned into a career-ending nerve injury; he hasn't played since 2016.

If you group Jones with the defensive tackles, he could end up in this slot as well. He went 26th overall to Green Bay where he flopped as a 3-4 end, never being more than a rotational player. The Packers then moved him to outside linebacker, which worked a little better, but not much. Jones has just 10 career sacks and has been bouncing around the league since the Packers opted not to pick up his fifth-year option; he is currently a free agent.

Best Value: Brandon Williams went 94th overall to Baltimore and has developed into one of the top run-stuffing defensive tackles in all of football. He has started 74 games for the Ravens and is coming off arguably his best season, having been named to the Pro Bowl for the first time. He is a lynchpin of the Ravens' defense, with their run defense noticeably declining whenever he's sidelined.