Barr's Usage

@BaseballNorm with potential of salary cap staying flat or not jumping up next year, what players on Vikings could be cap casualties

Our friends at OverTheCap.com make the candidates easy to pick out. Whether they would actually cut them is unclear. Harrison Smith can be let go to create $10 million in cap space with no dead money. That one screams restructure. They could make around $8 million by letting go Anthony Barr but would have to eat an equal amount of dead space. Same with Kyle Rudolph, who would create $5 million but carry just over $4 million in dead space.

It will depend on how they all play. In 2017 we wouldn’t have expected Xavier Rhodes to be a bottom five cornerback just two years later. If Barr and Rudolph aren’t major contributors, they could be out.

Riley Reiff could make the Pro Bowl and won’t be coming back with Ezra Cleveland behind him and $11 million in space created by cutting him.

After that there are so many young players that options are limited. The side effect, however, of that many young players is that they’ll probably be able to afford to keep everyone they want even if the cap goes down or stays stagnant. They created a lot of 2021 money this offseason.

@big_dannn Will singing Barr be the ultimate “maybe we shouldn’t have done that” move during the Cousins era ? In that that money could of gone of been used else where to help improve the team. If so what moves would you have made for the team then and now

As much as I believe Mike Zimmer when he talks about Barr’s hidden value, linebackers just aren’t getting paid these types of big bucks unless they are elite in coverage. That makes it hard to justify what Barr was paid on his fifth-year option in 2018 and what he’s set to make over the next couple years. Last year wasn’t a problem since he only carried a $5.6 million cap hit but that goes up to $12.7 million this year and $15.5 million next year.

If they hadn’t talked him into returning rather than going to the Jets, they might have been able to add a guard and veteran corner with that space.

Eric Wilson’s success as a fill-in makes it tougher. Over 16 games, there would be a difference but whether that’s worth big money is questionable.

Still Barr isn’t the worst when it comes to cap space vs. production. Xavier Rhodes and Linval Joseph’s 2019 space combined for around $25 million and neither was anywhere near the player they were when they signed extensions.

Following the 34-20 win over the Detroit Lions, Eric Kendricks effusively praised Eric Wilson. “I don’t know that anyone’s playing at a higher level than Eric Wilson right now,” Kendricks said. “That man is a walking turnover.”

To date, Wilson has intercepted three passes, recovered two fumbles, and forced one himself. Not every entity agrees with Kendricks’ assessment, however. PFF, for example, has graded Wilson as the 25th-best off-ball linebacker in the game, smack in the middle of 50 qualifying players. Arif Hasan has also expressed concern, noting that Wilson is exceptionally poor in run defense.

This is an important thing to reconcile. With Anthony Barr on IR with a torn pectoral, this is Wilson’s chance to earn a starting job. If he can play well enough to render Barr expendable, the Vikings could save over $7M in cap space next year by cutting him, and around twice that in future years. But they shouldn’t cut or trade Barr just to save the money if Wilson’s play isn’t up to par.

Wilson has played 534 snaps on defense to date and created a turnover on only six of them. On the other 528, there are some issues in his play that must be corrected if Wilson is to be a long-term starter on the Minnesota Vikings’ defense.

In coverage, Wilson has played very well. He has allowed the sixth fewest yards per cover snap in the league, and the lowest passer rating when targeted (largely thanks to the three picks). His coverage grade from PFF is only a 63.8, which is good-not-great. Part of this is due to plays like this, where Wilson doesn’t earn 100% of the interception. He has the wherewithal to snatch the ball, but doesn’t necessarily beat anyone in coverage. He’s just in the right place at the right time.

To make matters worse, Wilson’s next best option is as a sub-package linebacker. That means he’d only take the field in situations that call for three linebackers. Those are typically against two-tight end and two-running back packages and involve vastly more run defense than pass defense. Many of the passing downs in those situations would include play-action, stressing his processing speed even further. If Wilson has a place on defense, it may be as a sub-package nickel linebacker for a team looking for more rotation at the position than the Vikings.

Wilson’s disruptions shouldn’t be discounted. The other two interceptions are very good plays in coverage that add to his long-term outlook. But if defenses can predictably abuse your backup linebacker, you shouldn’t make him the starting linebacker. Even if it saves you a buck or two.

A few weeks ago I stumbled across a game from the mid-1990s on YouTube involving the Pittsburgh Steelers and something caught my ear. Throughout the game the Monday Night Football booth — I believe Frank and Al and Dan — spent a great deal of the game obsessing over linebacker Levon Kirkland. If you remember Kirkland, you know why the broadcast would have celebrated every tackle. He was the middle linebacker for many terrific Steelers defenses under Bill Cowher and he was a physical marvel. Kirkland played a sideline-to-sideline position at 6-foot-1, 270 pounds. It was crazy to watch.

Without even thinking about how freaking long ago Kirkland was in the league (he’s currently 52 years old), I opened up Pro Football Focus and typed in his name because I had a suspicion that he might have been overrated. Of course, PFF’s data doesn’t come anywhere close to involving Kirkland, so I went to his Pro-Football Reference page. Kirkland had a handful of sacks each year but nothing to write home about (career high 5.0 sacks) and maybe more interceptions than you expect from a 270-pound dude. He had a couple of Pro Bowl appearances. Football Reference’s “Approximate Value” stat has him as a pretty solid player but well below the Ray Lewises and Brian Urlachers of the world. All of this was pretty unsatisfying in trying to get my answer.

It came to my mind: Is there any way for me to know exactly how good Levon Kirkland was? Considering the amount of data we have now, it felt oddly frustrating to be without enough information to have anything definitive. And I’m sure as heck not taking Dierdorf’s word for it. I’m not trusting the Pro Bowl voters either. Or tackle numbers. All I know is that this big fella was a really important player to Cowher because he played nearly every defensive snap from 1992 to 2000.

All of this brought me back to the Minnesota Vikings. Kirkland reminded me a lot of Anthony Barr.

I wondered if Barr played in the 1990s, would the Monday Night Football broadcast would have fawned over him? Would have looked at him as less of a debate topic and more of a great pillar of Mike Zimmer’s defenses? If rather than shrugging our shoulders at some of his Pro Bowl selections, we would have used those as proof of his excellence? If we would have argued that the Football Men believe he’s great so those are the facts and that’s that.

Instead, throughout Barr’s career there’s been a persistent push and pull of Zimmer attempting to explain Barr’s value to the world and the world wondering if that’s really the case because we have a decent amount of information to suggest he’s just…pretty good.

In 2019, PFF ranked him 30th of 57 every-down linebackers (not including edge-rushing 3-4 outside linebackers). In 2018, 24th. In 2017, 15th. In 2016, 54th. In 2015 he was second. So aside from the wild swing from 2015 to 2016, he’s been consistently in the pretty good range.

But Zimmer has always argued that he’s absolutely necessary to the defense and the team signed him to a contract in 2019 that was among the elites of the position.

And Zimmer’s breakdowns of the value of things PFF doesn’t grade are always very specific. They aren’t vague platitudes about gritty linebackers. I asked him last week about what was missing with Barr out for the majority of 2020 and he gave a thoughtful answer.

“I think he was missed everywhere,” Zimmer said. “He missed 14 ½ games or something like that. He’s tremendously smart. We always have a lot of packages for him, things that he can do differently where a lot of players can’t do that. But not only that, he’s a terrific leader and guys respect him in the locker room. The coaches respect him in the way he goes about his business. He’s a guy that can communicate to me in kind of where things are or if I need to adjust things or change things up a little bit as well. He’s a really important part of our football team.”

Still with locker room value, respect, communication and such — we’re left wondering if these things are worth keeping him on a deal that carried the third highest cap hit in 2020.

There’s actually a lot to like on his PFF stat sheet, by the way. His career pressure rate is very good for the position and his career coverage numbers aren’t problematic for a linebacker who is asked to take on difficult assignments. If you take the average grades for his tackling, run defense, coverage and pass rush, they all come out to be…pretty good.

One factor is that PFF only grades the plays in which a player is involved, not the ones that he isn’t involved. That means that tackles for loss, sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles and pass breakups are going to get weighted heavily into a yearly grade. Barr’s collection of those things peaked in 2015. He had his career high in pressures, sacks and forced fumbles that year. That set a standard of expectation.

From that perspective, a single season is a small sample. We see baseball hitters fluctuate batting averages over 162 games, imagine how much a linebacker’s splash plays can go up and down over 16 contests. But that first impression dies hard.

This is the part where we say: “All of that shows he’s been a valuable contributor but it’s hard to justify the deal he signed in 2019 if he doesn’t make the splash plays like 2015.”

It feels unfortunate that we will someday put that sentiment on the gravestone of Anthony Barr’s time in Minnesota. Maybe in 1995 we wouldn’t have known the complete structure of his deal or understood cap management enough to question it. Frank and Al and Dan would have talked about the contract as proof that he was one of the league’s best. They wouldn’t have said, “Well look he’s allowed a 107.5 QB rating into his coverage and coverage is most valuable so…”

For a minute there watching Kirkland track down Fred Taylor, I thought: As much as we gain through statistical analysis, sometimes we lose something by feeling like we definitely know the answers.

Anyway, about this year. While we talk about make-or-break seasons for different Vikings players/coaches/management, Barr’s situation feels already broken. He re-worked his contract to reduce his cap hit to just over $6 million in order to stay in Minnesota but he’ll hit free agency after this season. At OTAs he talked for the first time since the beginning of the 2020 season and there was a very last-hurrah feeling to his comments.

“I kind of didn't want to go out like that – I didn’t want my last game being the one in which I got hurt and then missing an entire year,” Barr said when asked why he re-worked his contract. “I didn't want that to be my last memory as a Minnesota Viking, so that played a big factor in returning and taking the pay-cut to be back with this organization.”

Barr continued…

“I was able to reflect and realize I’m very blessed and still very fortunate to be in this situation that I am and to take advantage of the time because it is precious and it is fleeting. I’m much more appreciative, I guess, of my situation.”

There’s two things that come to mind here: First is that Barr has very much gone out of his way to remain a Viking. Years ago this would have been something fans would rave over rather than breaking down how they could have used his cap space. The other thing is: This year opens up the door to change the words on the gravestone of his Vikings career.

Maybe Barr won’t ever repeat his 2015 string of splash plays but if he’s central to a massive turnaround by the Vikings’ defense, it will point to how much he was indeed missed last year. As much as Eric Wilson admirably filled the void, the down-to-down effort and impact on the defense was not the same as when Barr is playing. So he’ll have the chance to have the final say on whether bringing him back in 2019 was a good move and whether Zimmer’s persistent table-standing for him is justified.

If he leads a good defense and helps bring the defense back to form, you’ll hear Al and Collinsworth obsessing over the importance of his return. He’ll probably make the Pro Bowl. Zimmer will talk about his intangibles. His PFF grade will probably be…pretty good.

And if this is it for Barr, it might actually be OK to occasionally let your guard down and not worry too much about his contract and appreciate that players like Kirkland and Barr often bring more than meets the grade.

One of the most obvious targets was Anthony Barr, who signed a five-year, $67.5 million contract before the 2018 season. With Barr due to make $12.9 million, Brzezinski pulled off his version of the Yurenecho double pike and restructured Barr’s contract to create $8.5 million in cap space.

But there was a catch.

The Vikings voided the final year of Barr’s deal, making him a free agent after the 2021 season. While Barr has his fans and critics, his newest contract is a calculated gamble that could have long-term ramifications.

By restructuring Barr’s contract, the Vikings were able to revamp their defense. While Rick Spielman tried a shotgun approach on Day 3 of the 2020 NFL Draft, he didn’t find any players who could make an immediate impact. Instead, they needed to be savvy in free agency and find players who could step into starting roles.

The problem was the Vikings didn’t have any money. According to the Star Tribune’s Ben Goessling, the team told prospective free agents that they could only afford to offer players the veteran minimum. This limited their options before Barr agreed to restructure his deal. With Barr’s cap number reduced, the Vikings were able to sign Patrick Peterson, Dalvin Tomlinson, and several other free agents who were part of a $45 million spending spree on defense.

Barr will benefit from having a better defense around him, and he’ll get to hit the market ahead of his age-30 season. One year may not seem like a big deal, but with teams focusing on getting younger and cheaper, Barr might not have as many options had he not restructured.

There’s also a chance that Barr’s play remains at the same level into his early 30s. A 2013 article by Bleacher Report’s Ty Schalter pointed out that linebackers don’t have the sudden drop-off in play that a running back or offensive lineman would. Because of the curve, Barr might be able to maintain his level of play well into his 30s, which means the Vikings now find themselves in a bidding war to retain his services.

That’s not to say they weren’t interested in keeping him around before. An interview with co-defensive coordinator Adam Zimmer last September revealed that Barr does more than we see on the field.

“No. 1, he is really good at getting everybody lined up on defense,” Zimmer said. “He calls the huddle. He gets everybody set. He helps [Eric] Kendricks immensely as far as setting the front, setting the pressure, and everything we do defensively.

“No. 2, he’s outstanding in coverage. I know some people might look at Pro Football Focus grades and stuff, but they really don’t know what we ask him to do, and he is always one of our highest-graded guys in terms of defense.”

This may seem odd for a player who has recorded one sack since signing his big contract, but Barr had a strong market for his services before re-signing with the Vikings in 2018. If other teams feel like Barr could provide the same value, there could be competition if he decides to cash in one more time.

In effect, Barr’s career is like Chad Greenway’s. Like Barr, Greenway was a leader on the Vikings’ defense throughout the 2000s but saw his career winding down with the turn of a new decade. The Vikings locked up Greenway on a five-year, $41 million contract in 2011, but Greenway signed a series of restructured deals until he retired at 33.

That will make things difficult if Barr overperforms this fall. With most of the Vikings’ defense signed to one-year deals and Danielle Hunter’s contract status up in the air, they could have several tough decisions to make. While the Vikings would certainly make an effort to keep Barr, letting him leave after this year makes that more expensive than it would have been if they let him play out his contract.

With Chazz Surratt the only prospective option to take over for Barr next season, the Vikings may feel it’s necessary to sign Barr next offseason. That’s where the gamble comes into play. If Barr does just enough, the Vikings should easily be able to re-sign Barr and keep a core piece of their defense. If he overperforms, the Vikings could have a big hole to fill next spring. It’s a risk worth taking to bolster the defense this offseason.