Post by Mondry on Apr 22, 2018 15:28:34 GMT -6
I'm going to try a different style here with the RBs compared to my WR thread to make it easier on me and less time-consuming. Essentially, I'm bullet-pointing their top 5 qualities and up to 3 weaknesses and then a small paragraph with my thoughts.
#1 - Saquon Barkley
#1 - Saquon Barkley
- Physical metrics
- Extremely high ceiling as a 3 down back
- Great Pass catcher in a league that expects more and more out of backs in the passing game
- Home run threat on any given play
- Improved his pass blocking over time
- Can lose yardage trying to hit a home run instead of settling for the 3-4 yard gain.
- Still not perfect in pass protection
- Wings it from time to time instead of following the play / his blocks
Personally, I think Barkley is way over-hyped and overrated as he's not the perfect prospect he's made out to be. Obviously, he's still my #1 RB in a super stacked RB class, so clearly I think very highly of him, but people tend to get carried away about this kind of prospect especially this time of year. In 2007, the same thing happened for Adrian Peterson and people said things like "no one else even comes close to Peterson" though Marshawn Lynch had a very similar career production wise and IMO was the better runner in the postseason. Peterson had questions about ball security that most people just ignored because of his other gifts and sure enough he fumbled multiple times in the playoffs. I see a few guys who could be the Marshawn Lynch to Barkley in this draft.
#2 - Nick Chubb
Before he tore everything in his knee outside of the ACL, I absolutely would have put him #1 over Barkley. People forget how much of a freak Chubb is in his own right, and I'm sure people have downgraded him because of the injury, but he looked great last season so I'm comfortable enough listing him #2. I don't believe he's damaged goods at this point. Even though Barkley has the physical advantage after Chubb's nasty injury, Chubb makes up for it by just being crisper and more efficient than Barkley with better vision, maturity, and understanding the play design and blocking.
#3 Derrius Guice
Guice is just a solid back that does everything pretty well and his game should translate well to the pros. I really don't have that much else to say about him, which is weird, but in a good way.
#4 Sony Michel
If Michel had Guice's ball security he'd get bumped up to #2 behind Barkley; that's how impressed by this kid's game I am, but he's fumbled in some big games which gives me flashbacks to Peterson in the NFCCG against the Saints and how important that can be.
If he can fix, or even just improve his ball security, I think he could be better than Frank Gore, and I LOVE Frank Gore's game.
#5 Kerryon Johnson
Johnson's physical metrics are right in that sweet spot of a guy who's big enough to take defenders head-on but also has enough wiggle to avoid them as well. Combined with his stiff arm, power, and toughness he's one of those guys who usually takes more than one defender to bring down.
#6 Royce Freeman
Freeman is a guy who I think is pretty underrated. He had the 3rd best 3-cone drill and the 3rd best 20- yard shuttle which to me are the most important combine drills for a running back as they mostly have to do with agility, change of direction, acceleration / burst, etc. and it translates on the field in his tape. Given where I expect Freeman to get drafted, I think someone will be getting a steal.
#7 Ronald Jones II
I feel bad putting a running back this good at #7, but that's how incredible this class is. In fact, I think any of the first 5 guys would basically be the #1 back in last year;s draft. Jones had himself a nice little year at USC, and I think he can keep that momentum going in the NFL. ELITE ball security tends to be underrated, and this guy rarely puts it on the turf, so for a team with a great defense that doesn't want their offense to hurt them with turnovers but can keep the chains moving in the right direction, Jones would be a good fit.
#8 Rashaad Penny
If Penny can improve his pass blocking, he has the size and pass-catching ability to be a 3-down all-purpose back. Needs to take better care of the football.
I'm going to jump into some 3rd down / scat backs who just don't have the size to be a featured back but should be weapons a good offensive coordinator can take advantage of to create mismatches. There are still plenty of good 2-down backs if I wanted to keep going in that direction, so beyond this point the rankings don't really mean anything. Even if I started it over and did a 3rd down back list, some guys like Saquon Barkley would just appear again.
#9 Justin Jackson
At 199 pounds soaking wet Jackson is small, but his game film, combine, and ability looks eerily similar to Jamaal Charles. When I watch the film I'm blown away; this dude is a bad a$$ college running back, and if he had a slightly bigger frame and was doing this at like 215-220 he'd be WAY up this list. He's a guy I will be rooting for to succeed cause he's just so fun to watch. Don't be surprised if this dude comes out of nowhere like an Alvin Kamara, remember Mondry told you about him!
#10 Chase Edmunds
Edmunds has a very similar body type and game to Duke Johnson of the Cleveland Browns who's been a solid 3rd down back for them in a pretty dysfunctional franchise / offense. If Edmunds' frame can handle another 10 pounds without slowing down he'd be around Jerrick McKinnon's weight.
#11 Akrum Wadley
Most likely a 3rd down back in the NFL but has the tools to excel in that role like a James White.
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With such a stacked class and losing Jerick McKinnon, I would love to see the Vikings pick up really any one of these guys, and there should be some good talent left in the 4th and 5th round.
#2 - Nick Chubb
- Vison
- Decision Making
- Physical Metrics
- Balance
- Short area quickness
- Injuries - Tore his MCL, PCL, and LCL at the same time - also missed time with an ankle injuries
#3 Derrius Guice
- Power
- Hard Worker
- Balance
- Vision
- Ball Security - 1 fumble in 255 touches in 2017
- Can improve his hand catching technique to limit drops
- Doesn't have the greatest break away speed
- Acceleration is about average
Guice is just a solid back that does everything pretty well and his game should translate well to the pros. I really don't have that much else to say about him, which is weird, but in a good way.
#4 Sony Michel
- Every down back with a strong 3rd down game
- Best Pass Blocker in the class
- Balance
- Agility
- Home run threat
- Ball security - averages 1 fumble every 59 touches
If Michel had Guice's ball security he'd get bumped up to #2 behind Barkley; that's how impressed by this kid's game I am, but he's fumbled in some big games which gives me flashbacks to Peterson in the NFCCG against the Saints and how important that can be.
If he can fix, or even just improve his ball security, I think he could be better than Frank Gore, and I LOVE Frank Gore's game.
#5 Kerryon Johnson
- POWER
- Eludes / Overcomes contact
- Great Stiff Arm
- Ball security - 1 fumble per 201 touches
- Tough - Effective even while nursing injuries
- Flashes of good pass blocking but needs better consistency as a blocker
Johnson's physical metrics are right in that sweet spot of a guy who's big enough to take defenders head-on but also has enough wiggle to avoid them as well. Combined with his stiff arm, power, and toughness he's one of those guys who usually takes more than one defender to bring down.
#6 Royce Freeman
- Great burst and change of direction
- Leveon Bell like patience and setting up his blocks
- Decision Making
- Elusive
- Decent 3rd down game
- Career fumble rate of 1 in 114 touches - in 2017 it was 1 in 134 touches so hopefully heading in the right direction
- Struggles with pass protection against bigger targets
Freeman is a guy who I think is pretty underrated. He had the 3rd best 3-cone drill and the 3rd best 20- yard shuttle which to me are the most important combine drills for a running back as they mostly have to do with agility, change of direction, acceleration / burst, etc. and it translates on the field in his tape. Given where I expect Freeman to get drafted, I think someone will be getting a steal.
#7 Ronald Jones II
- Quickness
- Acceleration
- Rarely makes a negative play worse
- 1 fumble for every 311 touches
- Decent Pass Protector
- Patience - needs to let his blocks develop more
I feel bad putting a running back this good at #7, but that's how incredible this class is. In fact, I think any of the first 5 guys would basically be the #1 back in last year;s draft. Jones had himself a nice little year at USC, and I think he can keep that momentum going in the NFL. ELITE ball security tends to be underrated, and this guy rarely puts it on the turf, so for a team with a great defense that doesn't want their offense to hurt them with turnovers but can keep the chains moving in the right direction, Jones would be a good fit.
#8 Rashaad Penny
- Change of Direction
- Burst
- Vision
- Smart
- Good pass catcher
- Needs to improve his pass protection
- 1 Fumble for every 102 carries
If Penny can improve his pass blocking, he has the size and pass-catching ability to be a 3-down all-purpose back. Needs to take better care of the football.
I'm going to jump into some 3rd down / scat backs who just don't have the size to be a featured back but should be weapons a good offensive coordinator can take advantage of to create mismatches. There are still plenty of good 2-down backs if I wanted to keep going in that direction, so beyond this point the rankings don't really mean anything. Even if I started it over and did a 3rd down back list, some guys like Saquon Barkley would just appear again.
#9 Justin Jackson
- Takes advantage of contact
- 2nd best combine time in 3 cone and 20 yard shuttle
- Intelligent and Dynamic
- Tons of tools including a great stiff arm
- 1 fumble per 181 touches
- Size
At 199 pounds soaking wet Jackson is small, but his game film, combine, and ability looks eerily similar to Jamaal Charles. When I watch the film I'm blown away; this dude is a bad a$$ college running back, and if he had a slightly bigger frame and was doing this at like 215-220 he'd be WAY up this list. He's a guy I will be rooting for to succeed cause he's just so fun to watch. Don't be surprised if this dude comes out of nowhere like an Alvin Kamara, remember Mondry told you about him!
- 1st at the combine in 3 cone and 20 yard shuttle
- Strong burst / acceleration
- Sets up his blockers
- Good in pass protection
- 1 fumble per 150 touches
Edmunds has a very similar body type and game to Duke Johnson of the Cleveland Browns who's been a solid 3rd down back for them in a pretty dysfunctional franchise / offense. If Edmunds' frame can handle another 10 pounds without slowing down he'd be around Jerrick McKinnon's weight.
#11 Akrum Wadley
- Quick and Elusive
- Patient
- Functional Power
- Exceptional Pad Level
- Skilled Pass Catcher
Most likely a 3rd down back in the NFL but has the tools to excel in that role like a James White.
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With such a stacked class and losing Jerick McKinnon, I would love to see the Vikings pick up really any one of these guys, and there should be some good talent left in the 4th and 5th round.
... and neither is this Chris guy.