Official Officiating Bias Breakdown

Reignman
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Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Nov 25, 2017 22:01:43 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Nov 25, 2017 22:01:43 GMT -6

If you guys want me to pull up something specific, let me know. I have all this data but sometimes I don't know what to post, or what would be interesting lol. I currently have player, down, distance, quarter, time, score, and referee data for every penalty since 2009 so it's just a matter of throwing together the right query. Like if you wanted to know every DPI penalty called on Xavier Rhodes by Clete Blakemans crew on 3rd down for the Packers in the 4th quarter with them trailing by more than 3 in October on Monday night with less than 8 minutes to go in the RZ, I can find out xD. Ofc that's a little specific so it probably won't return much, but you get the gist. D-linemen with the most offsides, neutral zone, or encroachment on 3rd and less than 5 would be interesting. Does Griffen lead the league? I could've swore he had at least 2, but guess not.

NYJ DB B.Skrine        2
NYJ DE L.Williams      2
LAC OLB M.Ingram       2
LAC DE J.Bosa          2
NYG DE J.Pierre-Paul   2

Vikings don't even have the most as a team.

LAC         4
NYJ         4
TAM         4
CLE         3
MIN         3 (Griffen, Robison, T.Johnson)
OAK         3
SEA         3
WAS         3

I'm also expanding my penalty DB as we speak so I'll have every penalty going back to 2000, and I'm going to add a formation/play category so I can find out just how many friggin blocks in the back or holding calls there are on punts. It's ridiculous. And if it's not too difficult, I'm hoping to include data on the play that was lost because of the penalty. Yards, TD, INT's, big plays etc, for curiosities sake.

Last Edit: Nov 25, 2017 22:02:00 GMT -6 by Reignman

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

Deleted Ghosted Member Posts: 0 Likes:	Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Nov 25, 2017 22:32:19 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2017 22:32:19 GMT -6 Vikings DPI on 3rd downs compared to league average.

Reignman
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Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Nov 26, 2017 16:22:24 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Nov 26, 2017 16:22:24 GMT -6

Nov 25, 2017 22:32:19 GMT -6 @aussie61 said:

Vikings DPI on 3rd downs compared to league average.

Here are the DPI + Defensive holds on 3rd/4th down.

2017 leaders:

SPOILER: Click to show

DEN CB B.Roby        4
NYJ CB M.Claiborne   4
CIN CB W.Jackson     3
SFF CB D.Johnson     3
SFF CB R.Robinson    3
DAL CB A.Brown       3
NYJ DB B.Skrine      2
SEA CB S.Griffin     2
DET CB D.Slay        2
HOU CB J.Joseph      2
NOS CB K.Crawley     2
NYJ CB D.Roberts     2
CHI DB M.Cooper      2
NYG DB J.Jenkins     2
PHI FS J.Mills       2
CLE ILB C.Kirksey    2
ATL CB R.Alford      2
ARZ CB P.Peterson    2
SEA CB R.Sherman     2
CIN CB J.Shaw        2
IND CB D.Butler      2
CHI LB D.Trevathan   2
NYG OLB B.Goodson    2
MIN Brock, Smith, Waynes, and Newman 1 each.

2017 team leaders:

SPOILER: Click to show

NYJ         9
CIN         9
SEA         6
CHI         6
SFF         6
DEN         5
IND         5
NYG         5
ATL         5
HOU         5
DAL         5
TAM         4
CLE         4
GRB         4
KAN         4
MIN         4 <-- league average 3.91
ARZ         4
BUF         4
PHI         4
NOS         4

Most since 2009 (active players):

SPOILER: Click to show

DEN CB B.Roby        8
ARZ CB P.Peterson    8
HOU CB J.Joseph      7
ATL CB R.Alford      7
ATL CB D.Trufant     7
MIN CB X.Rhodes      7 <-- there he is (Newman is next with 3, Waynes 2)
SEA CB R.Sherman     6
PIT CB W.Gay         5
LAR CB L.Joyner      5
NYJ CB M.Claiborne   4
DAL CB A.Brown       4
PHI FS J.Mills       4
IND CB D.Butler      4
DET CB N.Lawson      4
CIN CB A.Jones       4
CHI CB K.Fuller      4
NEP CB M.Butler      4

Team most since 2009:

SPOILER: Click to show

LAC         41
DEN         36
SEA         35
NEP         34
ARZ         33
LAR         33
PHI         32
CLE         31
OAK         31
NYJ         30
IND         30
ATL         30
DET         30
DAL         29
NOS         28
CIN         27
CHI         26
HOU         26
MIN         26 <-- league average 27.4
CAR         26

Last Edit: Nov 26, 2017 16:23:32 GMT -6 by Reignman

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

diehardtwinsfan
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Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Nov 27, 2017 5:02:41 GMT -6

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Post by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 27, 2017 5:02:41 GMT -6

Reignman, are you familiar with statistical process control? Seems like this could be a nice application that would clearly show if there's an officiating bias. I don't think it would work at a team level, but it should be able to show a process that is "out of control".

Reignman
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Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Nov 27, 2017 18:20:29 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by Reignman on Nov 27, 2017 18:20:29 GMT -6

Nov 27, 2017 5:02:41 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan said:

Reignman, are you familiar with statistical process control? Seems like this could be a nice application that would clearly show if there's an officiating bias. I don't think it would work at a team level, but it should be able to show a process that is "out of control".

Reignman IS the "statistical process control"

. But no, I'm not familiar with it.

Last Edit: Nov 27, 2017 18:20:52 GMT -6 by Reignman

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

diehardtwinsfan
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Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Nov 28, 2017 17:33:13 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 28, 2017 17:33:13 GMT -6

Nov 27, 2017 18:20:29 GMT -6 Reignman said:

Nov 27, 2017 5:02:41 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan said:

Reignman, are you familiar with statistical process control? Seems like this could be a nice application that would clearly show if there's an officiating bias. I don't think it would work at a team level, but it should be able to show a process that is "out of control".

Reignman IS the "statistical process control"

. But no, I'm not familiar with it.

It's used in manufacturing to determine when data points are truly random or if there's something that is not under control. Officiating SHOULD be unbiased, and with 8 + years of data, we should have a decent enough sample size in week to week data charting deviances from a mean (that should ultimately be close to a push in whatever scenario we setup). If there's bias in it, you'd find evidence in the chart.

Reignman
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Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Nov 28, 2017 22:13:11 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Nov 28, 2017 22:13:11 GMT -6

Well that should be simple enough. We just need to look the total penalties called (not accepted) over the past 8½ years to see which teams are getting called more often. Although 8½ years might not be long enough. Soon I'll have 18 years worth of data and then we can check again.

So here are all the teams ranked by their perceived bias. The higher their rank in any category, the more favorable the penalty ratio has been for them.

RK  TEAM AGAINST(RK)  BENEFIT(RK) DIFFERENCE
 1. IND    904  ( 2)   1089  ( 3)  -20.46%
 2. ATL    884  ( 1)   1063  (10)  -20.25%
 3. GRB    962  ( 7)   1126  ( 2)  -17.05%
 4. ARZ   1027  (20)   1185  ( 1)  -15.38%
 5. NYG    940  ( 4)   1080  ( 7)  -14.89%
 6. NEP    915  ( 3)   1045  (17)  -14.21%
 7. LAC    993  (13)   1083  ( 6)   -9.06%
 8. MIA    963  ( 8)   1046  (16)   -8.62%
 9. MIN    973  ( 9)   1052  (15)   -8.12%
10. WAS   1008  (15)   1089  ( 3)   -8.04%
11. PIT    982  (11)   1038  (18)   -5.70%
12. HOU   1021  (18)   1068  ( 8)   -4.60%
13. KAN   1012  (16)   1057  (13)   -4.45%
14. NOS    977  (10)   1018  (20)   -4.20%
15. JAX    943  ( 5)    961  (28)   -1.91%
16. PHI   1103  (25)   1085  ( 5)    1.63%
17. TEN   1080  (22)   1061  (11)    1.76%
18. CAR    955  ( 6)    935  (29)    2.09%
19. BAL   1082  (23)   1058  (12)    2.22%
20. CLE   1024  (19)   1000  (23)    2.34%
21. CIN   1012  (16)    977  (26)    3.46%
22. DET   1110  (28)   1055  (14)    4.95%
23. NYJ    988  (12)    930  (30)    5.87%
24. BUF   1076  (21)    991  (25)    7.90%
25. CHI   1004  (14)    918  (32)    8.57%
26. DEN   1107  (26)   1003  (22)    9.39%
27. LAR   1175  (30)   1064  ( 9)    9.45%
28. SFF   1108  (27)   1000  (23)    9.75%
29. TAM   1140  (29)   1009  (21)   11.49%
30. DAL   1082  (23)    923  (31)   14.70%
31. SEA   1185  (31)    977  (26)   17.55%
32. OAK   1289  (32)   1038  (18)   19.47%
avg       1032         1032

Does the league favor the Cardinals? They've been called for the 20th fewest (12th most) penalties which doesn't sound very good, but their opponents have been called for the most so that gives them an overall favorable bias. And according to this data, the Vikings are actually one of the leagues favored teams lol. Which makes me wonder if I got things backward, but nope, the Pukers are 3rd and the Raiders are last so that tells me I did things right for once.

Is it a bias though, or are teams just more disciplined than others? I guess that would only matter in the against category. In the beneficial category you're playing a different team with a different bias each week, so that category should be roughly the same for each team. The difference between the top and bottom ranked team in the against category is 405, and beneficiary category its 267, which seems kinda high. Arizona opponents have been called for nearly 100 more penalties than #3 on the list. Puker opponets are quite high as well. Meanwhile the Bears and Cowboys opponents are a bit low.

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

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Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Nov 29, 2017 18:05:49 GMT -6

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Post by diehardtwinsfan on Nov 29, 2017 18:05:49 GMT -6

problem with team by team is that some teams are going to be better than other teams in that area. I think you need to be (for the most part) team agnostic and do this situation by situation. While I suspect that there are favored teams, I think it's highly more likely that there are favored situations. I'd also put it in a real control chart in a week by week situation... not year by year.

When we watched the Pitt game, the observation made was that the Vikings were universally penalized in the first half putting the game largely out or reach. After that, the Steelers got a few token calls. Year by year would obscure this more than week by week. Yes, we could do team by team, but reality is that some teams will be better than others. The real stat line there is the teams that ALWAYS (if they exist) seem to be on the favorable side.

Reignman
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Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Nov 29, 2017 21:47:20 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Nov 29, 2017 21:47:20 GMT -6

We can do that, all we gotta do is define a few things, like what a favored situation is, and what a token (or make up call) is. Teams who get the most automatic first downs, or lose a first down? TD's or INT's taken away? I don't quite have the data on when these penalties occur or on what plays, so I can't research that yet. Just down, distance, time of game, and current score.

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

Reignman
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Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Dec 5, 2017 0:24:36 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Dec 5, 2017 0:24:36 GMT -6

Going to post this here too to keep all my penalty spam in one area. Most/fewest penalties in a single game since 2009. That covers 4500 team games.

Most penalties called:

SPOILER: Click to show

YEAR WK TM     OPP CALLED ACCEPT YARDS
2016  8 OAK vs TAM    27    23    200
2013  3 NYJ vs BUF    22    20    168
2015  2 DAL vs PHI    21    18    142
2010 11 PIT vs OAK    20    14    163
2010  3 GRB vs CHI    20    18    152
2010  9 OAK vs KAN    19    15    140
2017  1 KAN vs NEP    19    15    139
2015 16 OAK vs LAC    19    15    121
2016  8 WAS vs CIN    19    15    106
2014 16 SFF vs LAC    19     9     92
13 teams tied with    18

Vikings most:
2009 10 MIN vs DET    14    13     91 (107th most)
2010  3 MIN vs DET    14    12    100
2011  3 MIN vs DET    14    10     79
2014 16 MIN vs MIA    14     8     74
2017  2 MIN vs PIT    14    11    131
2016  2 MIN vs GRB    14    13    137

Most penalties accepted:

SPOILER: Click to show

YEAR WK TM     OPP CALLED ACCEPT YARDS
2016  8 OAK vs TAM    27    23    200
2013  3 NYJ vs BUF    22    20    168
2015  2 DAL vs PHI    21    18    142
2010  3 GRB vs CHI    20    18    152
2016  2 DET vs TEN    18    17    138
2015  4 BUF vs NYG    18    17    135
2017 11 MIA vs TAM    17    17    123
2015  7 TAM vs WAS    18    16    142
2014  2 SFF vs CHI    18    16    118
2017  9 SEA vs WAS    17    16    138
2012  6 DET vs PHI    17    16    132
2015  2 OAK vs BAL    17    16    106
14 teams tied with          15

Vikings most:
2009 10 MIN vs DET    14    13     91 (60th most)
2016  2 MIN vs GRB    14    13    137

Most penalty yards:

SPOILER: Click to show

YEAR WK TM     OPP CALLED ACCEPT YARDS
2016  8 OAK vs TAM    27    23    200
2015 10 CLE vs PIT    16    12    188
2013 14 HOU vs JAX    15    14    177
2009 13 GRB vs BAL    12    11    175
2017 13 CIN vs PIT    14    13    173
2015  2 CHI vs ARZ    14    14    170
2013  3 NYJ vs BUF    22    20    168
2010 11 PIT vs OAK    20    14    163
2014  2 NEP vs MIN    18    15    163
2015  4 NYJ vs MIA    15    14    163
2014 10 CHI vs GRB    12    11    163
2010  3 GRB vs CHI    20    18    152
2014 16 NYG vs LAR    18    12    149

Vikings most:
2016  2 MIN vs GRB    14    13    137 (27th most)

Fewest penalties called:

SPOILER: Click to show

YEAR WK TM     OPP CALLED ACCEPT YARDS
49 teams tied with     1

Vikings fewest:
2012 3 MIN vs SFF    1    1    10
2016 8 MIN vs CHI    1    1    10

Fewest penalties accepted:

SPOILER: Click to show

YEAR WK TM     OPP CALLED ACCEPT YARDS
2011 16 GRB vs CHI     1     0      0
2011 19 NOS vs SFF     1     0      0
2013  9 GRB vs CHI     1     0      0
2015 11 CHI vs DEN     1     0      0
2016 17 BUF vs NYJ     1     0      0
2009 12 NEP vs NOS     2     0      0
2011  5 LAC vs DEN     2     0      0
82 teams tied with           1

Vikings fewest:
2012  3 MIN vs SFF     1     1     10
2013 10 MIN vs WAS     2     1      7
2016  8 MIN vs CHI     1     1     10

Fewest penalty yards:

SPOILER: Click to show

YEAR WK TM     OPP CALLED ACCEPT YARDS
2009 12 NEP vs NOS     2     0      0
2011  5 LAC vs DEN     2     0      0
2011 16 GRB vs CHI     1     0      0
2011 19 NOS vs SFF     1     0      0
2013  9 GRB vs CHI     1     0      0
2015 11 CHI vs DEN     1     0      0
2016 17 BUF vs NYJ     1     0      0
2017  4 NYG vs TAM     4     1      0
2013 13 NYG vs WAS     2     1      1
2017  6 CAR vs PHI     4     1      1
2013 15 NEP vs MIA     1     1      2
2011  1 KAN vs BUF     3     1      3
2012  4 HOU vs TEN     2     1      3
2013 16 TEN vs JAX     1     1      4
37 teams tied with                  5

Vikings fewest:
2013 10 MIN vs WAS     2     1      7 (55th fewest)

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

diehardtwinsfan Moderator Posts: 11,991 Likes: 7,528	Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Dec 5, 2017 17:44:45 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by diehardtwinsfan on Dec 5, 2017 17:44:45 GMT -6 Do you have week by week data in said situations? it would be pretty easy to do some basic runs with road vs home games and potentially current score.

vikecycle Franchise Player Posts: 3,273 Likes: 850	Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Dec 6, 2017 11:25:30 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by vikecycle on Dec 6, 2017 11:25:30 GMT -6 Please, for the love of Bud, stop crying about the refs. This is just ridiculous.
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Reignman
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Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Dec 8, 2017 1:43:45 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Dec 8, 2017 1:43:45 GMT -6

Dec 5, 2017 17:44:45 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan said:

Do you have week by week data in said situations? it would be pretty easy to do some basic runs with road vs home games and potentially current score.

That depends on what situations you mean, and how it relates to home/road? But yes I can do it. Give me the parameters.

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

Reignman
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Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Dec 8, 2017 1:45:33 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Dec 8, 2017 1:45:33 GMT -6

Dec 6, 2017 11:25:30 GMT -6 vikecycle said:

Please, for the love of Bud, stop crying about the refs.

This is just ridiculous.

What's ridiculous and where do you see crying? You're being paranoid. This is merely some data on penalties. No conclusions are being drawn.

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

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Official Officiating Bias Breakdown Dec 8, 2017 6:35:53 GMT -6 Reignman likes this

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Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2017 6:35:53 GMT -6

Dec 6, 2017 11:25:30 GMT -6 vikecycle said:

Please, for the love of Bud, stop crying about the refs.

This is just ridiculous.

Who's crying?
A lot of fans for every team think the refs screw them over.All that's happening here is some legitimate data analysis to test if the fans are right or wrong.