Post by Uncle on Nov 20, 2024 15:09:13 GMT -6
We've almost reached the end of the 2024 College Football Regular Season which concludes during Thanksgiving week in what I dub, "Rivalry Week", and while some conferences already have their Conference Championship match set (for example, the AAC Conference Championship is locked-in as #19 Army will take on #20 Tulane), many other conferences will go down to the wire and Week 13 will go a long way's in determining who's in and who's out. One of those conferences is the BIG XII, which has four teams at the top and two massive games on-deck this weekend during the mid-afternoon slate...
...and before you get to stuffing your face on Thanksgiving next week, why don't you get a head start this weekend by vegging-out in front of the TV and watching some great College Football action because it's "Couch Potato Week 2.0"!
Just to recap, here is my personal list of criteria that a College weekend must meet in order to be considered a "Couch Potato Week":
- At least 3 matchups where both teams are ranked in the Top 25 (#5 Indiana @ #2 Ohio St, #14 BYU @ #21 Arizona St, and #19 Army @ #6 Notre Dame)
- Anticipated matchups at all three time slots (Noon ET start time features Indiana/Oho St, 3:30PM ET start time features BYU/ASU and 7:00PM ET start time features Army/Notre Dame)
- Anticipated matchups must include multiple Conferences (BIG10, BIG XII and SEC with the Ole Miss/Florida game)
- At least 1 matchup with significant Playoff implications for both teams (Indiana/Ohio St and Army/Notre Dame have big CFP implications)
Don't believe me? Well, if you just type in "College Football couch potato" into Google, their new AI functionality at the top returns this:
...but before we dive into this weekend's "smorgasbord" of action, let's take a look at the current state of the Playoff picture, courtesy of ESPN (link):
The biggest thing that sticks out is Boise St getting a 1st Rd BYE into the quarterfinals. That's because of BYU"s home loss to Kansas in Week 12 and the Playoff Committee ranking the Broncos - which look to be Mountain West Conf Champions - higher than the BIG XII Champion which the Committee still has as BYU (more on that below as the BIG XII has a massive weekend coming up). While BYU has an impressive road in at SMU, their lone loss was at home to a sub-.500 team, and the Committee punished them for it, while Boise St's lone loss was a road loss to the top-ranked Oregon Ducks, which only won on a last-second FG.
I do think that the Committee keeping BYU at #14 is important for #5 Indiana, which has a showdown with #2 Ohio St this weekend because it does suggest that the Hoosiers might be able to "afford" the loss to the Buckeyes this weekend, as long as it's not a massive blowout, and they won't fall too far down the rankings and could stll conceivably get an at-large bid around that #12 position. It also helps Indiana that Boise St is continuing to win games and will presumedly stay in the Top 10 because if Boise St did lose another, but won the Mountain West Championship and was the highest-ranked Group of Five Champion and they were ranked outside the Top 12, they could conceivably get in and keep whomever was ranked at #12 - possibly Indiana - out of the Playoff...
...but Week 13 has some massive games for determing who will be playing in the Conference Championship games (and also the CFP) - specifically the BIG10 and BIG XII - and with the forecast turning a touch colder across a good portion of the Northern part of the country, it's the perfect time to sit back...get the grill goin' (if you can anyway)...open a few cold one's...and enjoy a great Fall Saturday of College Football...
Saturday, November 23 - Early Afternoon Games
#5 Indiana @ #2 Ohio St - Noon ET (FOX); spread is Ohio St -13.5
Here's one sign that the 2024 College Regular Season has been a "treat" to College Football fans: this is the 5th time during the Regular Season that we're getting a matchup that involve both teams being ranked in the Top 5. Here were the other four:
Week 5: #2 Georgia @ #4 Alabama
Week 7: #2 Ohio St @ #2 Oregon
Week 8: #5 Georgia @ #1 Texas
Week 10: #4 Ohio St @ #3 Penn St
For reference, last season we only had one matchup of Top 5 teams in the Regular Season and that occurred during "Rivalry Week" (#2 Ohio St @ #3 Michigan).
This matchup is a de facto BIG10 Conference Championship elimination game since the winner will very likely get a spot in the BIG10 Conference Championship vs Oregon (which have 1 game left; a home game vs Washington next week, which they are unlikely to lose), while the loser to has to hope they won't tumble down the rankings and out of the CFP Top 12 so they stay in-line for an at-large bid. I mentioned this previously, but BYU not falling too far down is a good sign for Indiana that if they lose, they likely won't get bumped too far down, especially since their loss will be a road loss to a Top 5 ranked team. Still, Indiana has yet to face a ranked team this season and obviously this will be their toughest test and provide clear evidence how "real" their 10-0 record is and how much of a threat they will be in the Playoffs, should they make it. Yes, Ohio St is loaded with NFL talent, but they haven't been as dominating as past Buckeye teams: outside of that narrow Oregon loss in Eugene, the Buckeyes nearly lost to Nebraska at home, too. Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke is going to need to have the best game of his life if the Hoosiers are to essentially play in a "home" BIG10 Conference Championship game in Indianapolis. I'm shocked that FOX kept this game at Noon and didn't push it down to primetime. Two prospects Vikings fans need to keep an eye on in this one is Indiana DT CJ West (transfer in from Kent St); he's only 6'1" and 317 lbs and likely a Day 3 candidate, but he plays big in the middle of that Hoosier DL and has proved he can play at in a Power Conference. The other Hoosier defender behind West to watch is LB Jailin Walker, a transfer from James Madison (followed Indiana HC Curt Cignetti) who is #63 on Feldman's 2024 "Freaks List" - he has a bunch of speed and already has 6 PD (passed defended) this season, which displays his coverage abilities. If the Vikings dump Asamoah this coming offseason, someone like Walker would be a nice get on Day 3 in the 2025 Draft to develop behind Cashman/Pace.
#9 Ole Miss @ Florida - Noon ET (ABC); spread is Ole Miss -10.5
After the Rebels' big win over Georgia two weeks ago, many Ole Miss fans probably breathed a sigh of relief and thought their spot in the CFP was secure, regardless if they made it to the SEC Championship or not. Guess again Lane Kiffin. Yes, the Gators are not the formidable team they once were and many fans had them buried after a bad start this season (I was expecting them to can HC Billy Napier midway through the season), but the Gators have fought hard for Napier after the bad start and find themselves back to .500 at 5-5 and just 1 win away from being bowl eligible after knocking off LSU last week. While they will have another chance for that 6th win next week during "Rivalry Week" vs in-state nemisis FSU (a game the Gators will be favored in), what better way to become bowl eligible than to knock Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss out of the CFP? If the Rebels bring their "A" game and play as-focused as they were vs Georgia a few weeks ago, this should be able to win this one, but if not, then I wouldn't be surprised to see the Gator fans storming "The Swamp" and Kiffin trying to come up with yet another list of excuses as to why he can't ever seem to get over the hump.
Saturday, November 23 - Late Afternoon Games
#4 Penn St @ Minnesota - 3:30PM ET (CBS); spread is Penn St -12.5
Much like the Ole Miss/Florida game, this is another one where a highly ranked team is going on the road to face an unranked Conference opponent who does have the capability to pull out an upset. The Golden Gophers have had a roller coaster of a season: losing early to UNC, Iowa & Michigan and then bouncing back with wins over ranked Conference teams in Illinois and USC. They are 6-4 and are already bowl eligible, but they need a bit of momentum heading into 2025 as they get ready for the Transfer Portal season to begin (immediately after the Regular Season is when players will start declaring themselves) and a statement win over a Top 5 team would really make PJ Fleck's program all that more attractive to those Portal players, so there is some motivation from Minnesota's standpoint. The Nittany Lions probably won't be playing in the BIG10 Championship and are basically on "cruise control" into the CFP so I'm not sure just how focused they will be for their last 2 games and if they aren't careful, the Golden Gophers could jump up and shock the world and send them right out of the CFP.
#14 BYU @ #21 Arizona St - 3:30PM ET (ESPN); spread is Arizona St -3
The Cougars were living dangerously for a while and it all caught up with them in Week 12 when the Jayhawks beat them in Provo, and with their undefeated season evaporated, their BIG XII Conference Champion & CFP chances are hanging on by a thread as they travel to Tempe to take on "Sparky" and the red-hot Sun Devils and just like the Indiana/Ohio matchup, this one will probably determine who gets to play in the Conference Championship. Although this isn't exactly an outright elimination game (there are tie-breaker scenarios in the Cougar's favor even if they end up with 2 losses), for all intents and purposes, it is. The Sun Devils have won 5 of their last 6 games due to the improvement of their QB, Sam Leavitt. The only loss in that stretch was a game that Leavitt missed due to injury. Between Leavitt and RB Cam Skattebo - one of the best RB's in the nation behind Ashton Jeanty - BYU is going to have their hands full on the road.
#16 Colorado @ Kansas - 3:30PM ET (FOX); spread is Colorado -2.5
Why would a 4-6 team only be 2.5 underdogs to an 8-2 ranked team? It's because the Jayhawks are suddenly playing really good football again and have pulled off massive upsets against Conference ranked teams the last two weeks - vs Iowa St and then last week @ BYU - and have thrown the BIG XII into a bit of chaos. Their 4-6 record is also a bit deceiving: only one of its six losses came by more than six points. Coach Prime has answered the question of whether he would have the Buffaloes ready down the stretch to compete for a Conference Championship and a shot at the CFP and while Shedeur and Travis Hunter should be able to score rather easily against the Jayhawk defense, it's the Jayhawk offense which has suddenly come alive under QB Jaylon Daniels. The Jayhawks need to win both of their last 2 games to become bowl eligible this season so they are going to throw caution to the wind in this one and give it everything they have to spoil Coach Prime's run at the CFP.
Saturday, November 23 - Evening Games
#19 Army @ #6 Notre Dame - 7PM ET (NBC, Peacock); spread is Notre Dame -14.5 - game to be played at Yankee Stadium
Primetime...Yankee Stadium...undefeated Army vs Notre Dame...Playoff spots on the line...it's probably the biggest game Army has had in decades. If they beat Notre Dame and then beat a ranked Tulane team in the AAC Championship, they would very likely leapfrog Boise St in terms of being the highest-ranked Group of Five Champion and secure a spot in the CFP. There's even a world in which both Boise St AND Army get in if both teams win their remaining games because Boise St is already ranked in the Top 12 and they could get an at-large bid over a 2/3-loss Power 4 team. As far as Notre Dame is concerned, one more loss and they are likely out of the CFP, thanks to that embarrassing loss at home to Northern Illinois. If they get by the Black Knights, they still have to travel to LA to face-off against rival USC next week to ensure their spot. To Notre Dame's credit, they've played really good football since that early-season loss and have NFL talent at all three levels of their defense so Army is going to have a real tough time trying to run the ball effectively against them. Notre Dame's earlier game with a then undefeated Navy team got out-of-hand early and Army can't afford to go down by more double-digits so they need to start hot in the Bronx to have a chance.
#22 Iowa St @ Utah - 7:30PM ET (FOX); spread is Iowa St -7.5
Both BYU and Colorado control their destinies in the BIG XII and if both end up winning their matchups earlier in the day, then the Cyclones might not have too much to play for. But if either the Cougars or Buffaloes fall, that opens the door for Iowa St to get back into the the BIG XII Championship picture, and there's even a world where all 4 teams (BYU, Colorado, Arizona St & Iowa St) all have 2 Conference losses, which would lead to tie-breaker chaos. All the Cyclones would need to do is go on the road and beat Utah in Salt Lake City - a task that's easier said than done. The Utes have lost 6 in a row and ultimately couldn't hang with Colorado last week in Boulder, but like Kansas, they still have a shot to get to 6 wins and become bowl eligible to not make this season a complete throwaway so they will probably give it all they have. If the Utes pull it off, then the Cyclones can kiss their shot at the BIG XII Championship and CFP goodbye.
...and before you get to stuffing your face on Thanksgiving next week, why don't you get a head start this weekend by vegging-out in front of the TV and watching some great College Football action because it's "Couch Potato Week 2.0"!
Just to recap, here is my personal list of criteria that a College weekend must meet in order to be considered a "Couch Potato Week":
- At least 3 matchups where both teams are ranked in the Top 25 (#5 Indiana @ #2 Ohio St, #14 BYU @ #21 Arizona St, and #19 Army @ #6 Notre Dame)
- Anticipated matchups at all three time slots (Noon ET start time features Indiana/Oho St, 3:30PM ET start time features BYU/ASU and 7:00PM ET start time features Army/Notre Dame)
- Anticipated matchups must include multiple Conferences (BIG10, BIG XII and SEC with the Ole Miss/Florida game)
- At least 1 matchup with significant Playoff implications for both teams (Indiana/Ohio St and Army/Notre Dame have big CFP implications)
Don't believe me? Well, if you just type in "College Football couch potato" into Google, their new AI functionality at the top returns this:
...but before we dive into this weekend's "smorgasbord" of action, let's take a look at the current state of the Playoff picture, courtesy of ESPN (link):
The biggest thing that sticks out is Boise St getting a 1st Rd BYE into the quarterfinals. That's because of BYU"s home loss to Kansas in Week 12 and the Playoff Committee ranking the Broncos - which look to be Mountain West Conf Champions - higher than the BIG XII Champion which the Committee still has as BYU (more on that below as the BIG XII has a massive weekend coming up). While BYU has an impressive road in at SMU, their lone loss was at home to a sub-.500 team, and the Committee punished them for it, while Boise St's lone loss was a road loss to the top-ranked Oregon Ducks, which only won on a last-second FG.
I do think that the Committee keeping BYU at #14 is important for #5 Indiana, which has a showdown with #2 Ohio St this weekend because it does suggest that the Hoosiers might be able to "afford" the loss to the Buckeyes this weekend, as long as it's not a massive blowout, and they won't fall too far down the rankings and could stll conceivably get an at-large bid around that #12 position. It also helps Indiana that Boise St is continuing to win games and will presumedly stay in the Top 10 because if Boise St did lose another, but won the Mountain West Championship and was the highest-ranked Group of Five Champion and they were ranked outside the Top 12, they could conceivably get in and keep whomever was ranked at #12 - possibly Indiana - out of the Playoff...
...but Week 13 has some massive games for determing who will be playing in the Conference Championship games (and also the CFP) - specifically the BIG10 and BIG XII - and with the forecast turning a touch colder across a good portion of the Northern part of the country, it's the perfect time to sit back...get the grill goin' (if you can anyway)...open a few cold one's...and enjoy a great Fall Saturday of College Football...
Saturday, November 23 - Early Afternoon Games
#5 Indiana @ #2 Ohio St - Noon ET (FOX); spread is Ohio St -13.5
Here's one sign that the 2024 College Regular Season has been a "treat" to College Football fans: this is the 5th time during the Regular Season that we're getting a matchup that involve both teams being ranked in the Top 5. Here were the other four:
Week 5: #2 Georgia @ #4 Alabama
Week 7: #2 Ohio St @ #2 Oregon
Week 8: #5 Georgia @ #1 Texas
Week 10: #4 Ohio St @ #3 Penn St
For reference, last season we only had one matchup of Top 5 teams in the Regular Season and that occurred during "Rivalry Week" (#2 Ohio St @ #3 Michigan).
This matchup is a de facto BIG10 Conference Championship elimination game since the winner will very likely get a spot in the BIG10 Conference Championship vs Oregon (which have 1 game left; a home game vs Washington next week, which they are unlikely to lose), while the loser to has to hope they won't tumble down the rankings and out of the CFP Top 12 so they stay in-line for an at-large bid. I mentioned this previously, but BYU not falling too far down is a good sign for Indiana that if they lose, they likely won't get bumped too far down, especially since their loss will be a road loss to a Top 5 ranked team. Still, Indiana has yet to face a ranked team this season and obviously this will be their toughest test and provide clear evidence how "real" their 10-0 record is and how much of a threat they will be in the Playoffs, should they make it. Yes, Ohio St is loaded with NFL talent, but they haven't been as dominating as past Buckeye teams: outside of that narrow Oregon loss in Eugene, the Buckeyes nearly lost to Nebraska at home, too. Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke is going to need to have the best game of his life if the Hoosiers are to essentially play in a "home" BIG10 Conference Championship game in Indianapolis. I'm shocked that FOX kept this game at Noon and didn't push it down to primetime. Two prospects Vikings fans need to keep an eye on in this one is Indiana DT CJ West (transfer in from Kent St); he's only 6'1" and 317 lbs and likely a Day 3 candidate, but he plays big in the middle of that Hoosier DL and has proved he can play at in a Power Conference. The other Hoosier defender behind West to watch is LB Jailin Walker, a transfer from James Madison (followed Indiana HC Curt Cignetti) who is #63 on Feldman's 2024 "Freaks List" - he has a bunch of speed and already has 6 PD (passed defended) this season, which displays his coverage abilities. If the Vikings dump Asamoah this coming offseason, someone like Walker would be a nice get on Day 3 in the 2025 Draft to develop behind Cashman/Pace.
#9 Ole Miss @ Florida - Noon ET (ABC); spread is Ole Miss -10.5
After the Rebels' big win over Georgia two weeks ago, many Ole Miss fans probably breathed a sigh of relief and thought their spot in the CFP was secure, regardless if they made it to the SEC Championship or not. Guess again Lane Kiffin. Yes, the Gators are not the formidable team they once were and many fans had them buried after a bad start this season (I was expecting them to can HC Billy Napier midway through the season), but the Gators have fought hard for Napier after the bad start and find themselves back to .500 at 5-5 and just 1 win away from being bowl eligible after knocking off LSU last week. While they will have another chance for that 6th win next week during "Rivalry Week" vs in-state nemisis FSU (a game the Gators will be favored in), what better way to become bowl eligible than to knock Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss out of the CFP? If the Rebels bring their "A" game and play as-focused as they were vs Georgia a few weeks ago, this should be able to win this one, but if not, then I wouldn't be surprised to see the Gator fans storming "The Swamp" and Kiffin trying to come up with yet another list of excuses as to why he can't ever seem to get over the hump.
Saturday, November 23 - Late Afternoon Games
#4 Penn St @ Minnesota - 3:30PM ET (CBS); spread is Penn St -12.5
Much like the Ole Miss/Florida game, this is another one where a highly ranked team is going on the road to face an unranked Conference opponent who does have the capability to pull out an upset. The Golden Gophers have had a roller coaster of a season: losing early to UNC, Iowa & Michigan and then bouncing back with wins over ranked Conference teams in Illinois and USC. They are 6-4 and are already bowl eligible, but they need a bit of momentum heading into 2025 as they get ready for the Transfer Portal season to begin (immediately after the Regular Season is when players will start declaring themselves) and a statement win over a Top 5 team would really make PJ Fleck's program all that more attractive to those Portal players, so there is some motivation from Minnesota's standpoint. The Nittany Lions probably won't be playing in the BIG10 Championship and are basically on "cruise control" into the CFP so I'm not sure just how focused they will be for their last 2 games and if they aren't careful, the Golden Gophers could jump up and shock the world and send them right out of the CFP.
#14 BYU @ #21 Arizona St - 3:30PM ET (ESPN); spread is Arizona St -3
The Cougars were living dangerously for a while and it all caught up with them in Week 12 when the Jayhawks beat them in Provo, and with their undefeated season evaporated, their BIG XII Conference Champion & CFP chances are hanging on by a thread as they travel to Tempe to take on "Sparky" and the red-hot Sun Devils and just like the Indiana/Ohio matchup, this one will probably determine who gets to play in the Conference Championship. Although this isn't exactly an outright elimination game (there are tie-breaker scenarios in the Cougar's favor even if they end up with 2 losses), for all intents and purposes, it is. The Sun Devils have won 5 of their last 6 games due to the improvement of their QB, Sam Leavitt. The only loss in that stretch was a game that Leavitt missed due to injury. Between Leavitt and RB Cam Skattebo - one of the best RB's in the nation behind Ashton Jeanty - BYU is going to have their hands full on the road.
#16 Colorado @ Kansas - 3:30PM ET (FOX); spread is Colorado -2.5
Why would a 4-6 team only be 2.5 underdogs to an 8-2 ranked team? It's because the Jayhawks are suddenly playing really good football again and have pulled off massive upsets against Conference ranked teams the last two weeks - vs Iowa St and then last week @ BYU - and have thrown the BIG XII into a bit of chaos. Their 4-6 record is also a bit deceiving: only one of its six losses came by more than six points. Coach Prime has answered the question of whether he would have the Buffaloes ready down the stretch to compete for a Conference Championship and a shot at the CFP and while Shedeur and Travis Hunter should be able to score rather easily against the Jayhawk defense, it's the Jayhawk offense which has suddenly come alive under QB Jaylon Daniels. The Jayhawks need to win both of their last 2 games to become bowl eligible this season so they are going to throw caution to the wind in this one and give it everything they have to spoil Coach Prime's run at the CFP.
Saturday, November 23 - Evening Games
#19 Army @ #6 Notre Dame - 7PM ET (NBC, Peacock); spread is Notre Dame -14.5 - game to be played at Yankee Stadium
Primetime...Yankee Stadium...undefeated Army vs Notre Dame...Playoff spots on the line...it's probably the biggest game Army has had in decades. If they beat Notre Dame and then beat a ranked Tulane team in the AAC Championship, they would very likely leapfrog Boise St in terms of being the highest-ranked Group of Five Champion and secure a spot in the CFP. There's even a world in which both Boise St AND Army get in if both teams win their remaining games because Boise St is already ranked in the Top 12 and they could get an at-large bid over a 2/3-loss Power 4 team. As far as Notre Dame is concerned, one more loss and they are likely out of the CFP, thanks to that embarrassing loss at home to Northern Illinois. If they get by the Black Knights, they still have to travel to LA to face-off against rival USC next week to ensure their spot. To Notre Dame's credit, they've played really good football since that early-season loss and have NFL talent at all three levels of their defense so Army is going to have a real tough time trying to run the ball effectively against them. Notre Dame's earlier game with a then undefeated Navy team got out-of-hand early and Army can't afford to go down by more double-digits so they need to start hot in the Bronx to have a chance.
#22 Iowa St @ Utah - 7:30PM ET (FOX); spread is Iowa St -7.5
Both BYU and Colorado control their destinies in the BIG XII and if both end up winning their matchups earlier in the day, then the Cyclones might not have too much to play for. But if either the Cougars or Buffaloes fall, that opens the door for Iowa St to get back into the the BIG XII Championship picture, and there's even a world where all 4 teams (BYU, Colorado, Arizona St & Iowa St) all have 2 Conference losses, which would lead to tie-breaker chaos. All the Cyclones would need to do is go on the road and beat Utah in Salt Lake City - a task that's easier said than done. The Utes have lost 6 in a row and ultimately couldn't hang with Colorado last week in Boulder, but like Kansas, they still have a shot to get to 6 wins and become bowl eligible to not make this season a complete throwaway so they will probably give it all they have. If the Utes pull it off, then the Cyclones can kiss their shot at the BIG XII Championship and CFP goodbye.
... and neither is this Chris guy.