Vikings Offensive and Defensive Stats: Week 4

I think the Jets are going to be alright offensively. Rodgers looked healthy enough and against lesser run defenses Hall is going to go nuts. Too many people are panicking about them because they ran into the 49ers.


Yeah, well, at least tomorrow we get a real test unlike last week.

Headed in to week 3, the Vikings continue to play well despite playing a top five offensive and defensive team. This week’s opponent is also off to a good start, but have yet to be really tested by playing a quality opponent. Let’s see how these two teams matchup.

Just like last week, we start off with PFF Grades:

2024 Vikings


2024 Houston


PFF continues it’s love affair with Kevin O’Connell’s teams, with mostly above average or better grades. They are not quite as kind to Houston, but this is still a quality team across the board according to PFF. Just like last week, based on these grades the Vikings should attack Houston by running the football as that appears to be Houston’s biggest weakness and would help hide the Viking’s biggest weakness, its pass blocking.

Next up the drive stats:
Offensive Drive Stats


Defensive Drive Stats


The good news? The Vikings will not continue to turn the ball over 21% of their drives. The highest turnover % of the past 5 years was 19% (the Vikings last season), and most seasons the average highest turnover rate is 17%. That means this number should even out, even though the turnovers on offense appear to be a trend for this team under KOC.

The bad news? The turnover rate on defense is also likely unsustainable. Fortunately, even if the Vikings give up an extra FG and have one fewer turnover per game, they are still a top 5 defense, and conversely on offense if they have one less turnover and one more FG, they jump up into the top 3 in scoring on offense.

More bad news, the Vikings are punting too much and that number doesn’t seem like a fluke like the turnover number does. Hopefully the Vikings getting healthy at the pass catching positions and playing a softer part of the schedule can fix that.

Houston’s defense is off to a good start even with Indianapolis scoring in bunches week 1, and their offense is scoring slightly more than the Vikings, even if they aren’t moving the ball as well.

Finally, EPA for week 2:

*https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/nfl-epa-tiers/

Week 2 the Viking’s offense dropped significantly in EPA…while playing a top 3 defense. They are still significantly better than Houston on both defense and offense.

Final verdict? Every number indicates we win, and I will go with 24-17 Vikings.
What do you all think?

Your perception meets reality there. The Vikings have had an average of an 8.3 point lead every time they have had the ball on offense.

Week 4 has come and gone and the Vikings continue winning despite a very difficult schedule.  Let's look at how they compare to this week's opponent, the Aaron Rodger's lead Jets.

On to the stats:

Offensive Drive Stats



Offensively, the Vikings are scoring the most points per drive they have scored since...1998*.  That is the good news, the bad new is that they are only 15th in yards per drive this season which means they are benefitting a lot from good field position to get those points.  More bad news is that they continue to be near the top of the league in turnover rate, with only the Broncos, Colts, Titans and surprising the Eagles and Chiefs ahead of them.  Going back to the good news about the offense, their TD % is 5th in the league and there isn't a team anywhere close to their point differential, which just continues to climb.  Being up by at least two scores on average might have something to do with that low yardage total too. 

Looking at the Jets, they clearly do not turn the ball over very much, but they do punt a lot, and struggle to move the football significantly more than we do.  
 
Defensive Drive stats



Defensively we also see the team doing very well in points per drive and much less so in yards per drive.  They are living off of turnovers, but unlike the Packers who are the only team with a higher turnover rate defensively, they haven't really played a bunch of turnover happy teams.  Not to go off on a tangent, but the Packers have played the 1st, 3rd, 4th and 6th most turnover happy offenses this year, skewing their numbers quite a bit.

Back to this week's opponent, the Jets defense looks pretty good on paper, but they have faced only one good offense this year, and gave up 45 yards per drive and 3.5 points per drive.  Their other three opponents, 31st, 30th, and 28th best offenses, they played pretty good, but I think we are a little better than the Titans, Broncos and Patriots offenses.  Just a little. 

PFF


PFF continues to hate on our pass rush, and I think we saw a bit why last week when the Vikings struggled to get pressure without blitzing.  Not to sound like a broken record, but for the 3rd week in a row it appears we should attack the opponent on the ground and short passing attack. Their monstrous coverage grade might be a bit inflated based on them not playing a viable starting QB for the past 3 weeks, but Darnold could struggle against a very good secondary.

EPA
O
Our defensive EPA continues to go up, while the offense continues to slide back towards the middle of the pack.  Considering their opponents, it is tough to argue that their SB contender tier is a fluke.
The same can't be said about the Jets, who's playoff contention tier is likely due to one of the easiest schedules in the league this year so far.  

That's it for week, and the numbers are predicting a big win for the Vikings.  I will go with 24-0, Vikings.