Post by Purple Pain on Oct 4, 2024 9:41:13 GMT -6
and someone remind me how things went after that 5-0 start in 2016, I'll wait. 
SkolSmith: Everyone Needs To Cool It With the 2016 Comparisons
The Minnesota Vikings are 4-0 for the first time since the 2016 season. It has been a surprising start. The Vikings have beaten three playoff teams from last season behind Sam Darnold’s arm and a tenacious defense. This Sunday, they head to London to play the New York Jets and their old foe, Aaron Rodgers, before getting a much-needed bye week.
It’s easy to draw comparisons to the 2016 team that started 5-0 before falling apart over the final 11 games of the season, missing the playoffs with an 8-8 record. As they did in 2016, Minnesota has a former first-round quarterback playing way better than expected, and the defense has been flying around, making plays. Because of that and the innate nature of being a Vikings fan, it’s easy to think, It didn’t work out then. Why would it work out now?
However, this 2024 version is better built for the rest of the schedule than the 2016 team.
Let’s start with the most important position. Two days after Minnesota’s third preseason game in 2016, third-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffered a catastrophic knee injury. General manager Rick Spielman felt the Vikings were in a championship window. He didn’t have a viable backup, so he traded a first- and fourth-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for Sam Bradford.
Bradford performed admirably in 2016, considering the situation. But because the Vikings brought him in immediately before the season started, the Vikings couldn’t build on Bradford’s game. They asked him to be a game manager, and he threw six touchdowns and had no interceptions in four starts before the Week 6 bye (Shaun Hill started the opener). However, Bradford regressed after the bye. He only threw eight touchdowns and four interceptions over the next nine games.
Bradford alone wasn’t at fault for the sputtering offense. The unit eclipsed 100 yards rushing once during the 5-0 start and didn’t hit that mark again until the season’s final game. That was partially due to injuries to Adrian Peterson and tackles Matt Kalil and Andre Smith. The Vikings brought in left tackle Jake Long, the first-overall pick in the 2008 draft, to fill in. However, Long also went down with an injury, and they lost him for the season. Minnesota’s lack of continuity on the offensive line predictably led to worse results.
The 2016 Vikings had a plus-56 point differential after five games. Similarly, this year’s team is plus-57 through four games. However, they got there much differently.
The 2016 team scored two defensive touchdowns in their season opener against the Tennessee Titans and had two additional punt return touchdowns from Marcus Sherels through five games. Defensive and special teams scores change games, but teams can’t rely on them to score throughout a season. They can help squeak out a win every once in a while. It’s a recipe for disaster when the offense is in a rut for over half the season and the defensive and special teams predictably stop scoring.
Minnesota’s turnover differential was also unsustainable in 2016. They were plus-11 through five games and only gave the ball up once. Protecting the football is essential in the NFL. However, even the best teams suffer from bad turnover luck. The Vikings would turn the ball over 15 times over the final 11 games of the season. That isn’t a terrible number, but they only forced 10 turnovers over the 10 games following their bye before forcing five in their meaningless Week 17 game against the Chicago Bears.
In addition to the instability across the roster and the scoring and turnover margins, the Vikings also dealt with coaching instability. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner resigned after Minnesota lost 20-10 to the Bears on Halloween Night. The Vikings had fallen to 5-2, and Turner quit two days later. Tight ends coach Pat Shurmur replaced him, but the offense had to pivot again.
In case that wasn’t enough, head coach Mike Zimmer suffered an eye injury that reportedly happened when a laminated play sheet cut it. He missed a Thursday night matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, a game the Vikings would lose 17-15.
The 2016 season was bizarre and almost impossible to replicate, but the 2024 Vikings have more going for them than the improbability that they’ll experience another season like 2016. Darnold isn’t just filling in at quarterback, he’s excelling, leading the league in passing touchdowns and quarterback rating...
It’s easy to draw comparisons to the 2016 team that started 5-0 before falling apart over the final 11 games of the season, missing the playoffs with an 8-8 record. As they did in 2016, Minnesota has a former first-round quarterback playing way better than expected, and the defense has been flying around, making plays. Because of that and the innate nature of being a Vikings fan, it’s easy to think, It didn’t work out then. Why would it work out now?
However, this 2024 version is better built for the rest of the schedule than the 2016 team.
Let’s start with the most important position. Two days after Minnesota’s third preseason game in 2016, third-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffered a catastrophic knee injury. General manager Rick Spielman felt the Vikings were in a championship window. He didn’t have a viable backup, so he traded a first- and fourth-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for Sam Bradford.
Bradford performed admirably in 2016, considering the situation. But because the Vikings brought him in immediately before the season started, the Vikings couldn’t build on Bradford’s game. They asked him to be a game manager, and he threw six touchdowns and had no interceptions in four starts before the Week 6 bye (Shaun Hill started the opener). However, Bradford regressed after the bye. He only threw eight touchdowns and four interceptions over the next nine games.
Bradford alone wasn’t at fault for the sputtering offense. The unit eclipsed 100 yards rushing once during the 5-0 start and didn’t hit that mark again until the season’s final game. That was partially due to injuries to Adrian Peterson and tackles Matt Kalil and Andre Smith. The Vikings brought in left tackle Jake Long, the first-overall pick in the 2008 draft, to fill in. However, Long also went down with an injury, and they lost him for the season. Minnesota’s lack of continuity on the offensive line predictably led to worse results.
The 2016 Vikings had a plus-56 point differential after five games. Similarly, this year’s team is plus-57 through four games. However, they got there much differently.
The 2016 team scored two defensive touchdowns in their season opener against the Tennessee Titans and had two additional punt return touchdowns from Marcus Sherels through five games. Defensive and special teams scores change games, but teams can’t rely on them to score throughout a season. They can help squeak out a win every once in a while. It’s a recipe for disaster when the offense is in a rut for over half the season and the defensive and special teams predictably stop scoring.
Minnesota’s turnover differential was also unsustainable in 2016. They were plus-11 through five games and only gave the ball up once. Protecting the football is essential in the NFL. However, even the best teams suffer from bad turnover luck. The Vikings would turn the ball over 15 times over the final 11 games of the season. That isn’t a terrible number, but they only forced 10 turnovers over the 10 games following their bye before forcing five in their meaningless Week 17 game against the Chicago Bears.
In addition to the instability across the roster and the scoring and turnover margins, the Vikings also dealt with coaching instability. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner resigned after Minnesota lost 20-10 to the Bears on Halloween Night. The Vikings had fallen to 5-2, and Turner quit two days later. Tight ends coach Pat Shurmur replaced him, but the offense had to pivot again.
In case that wasn’t enough, head coach Mike Zimmer suffered an eye injury that reportedly happened when a laminated play sheet cut it. He missed a Thursday night matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, a game the Vikings would lose 17-15.
The 2016 season was bizarre and almost impossible to replicate, but the 2024 Vikings have more going for them than the improbability that they’ll experience another season like 2016. Darnold isn’t just filling in at quarterback, he’s excelling, leading the league in passing touchdowns and quarterback rating...
... and neither is this Chris guy.