How will KO use Darnold, and how will Darnold perform?

Geno Smith got a 3 year/75 million dollar deal. Somebody is going to pay him 20 million or more a season easy if they want him starting.

He was paid like a high-end backup, and that is how he is playing.

BTW, all the people saying no to Russell Wilson prior to this season, how you feeling about that take now?

I stand by thinking that Wilson wasn't a fit for KOC's offense, and I didn't expect him to look this good in Pittsburgh. I'd like to watch a game of theirs to see how exactly he is doing, but it was a great signing to get him for the veteran minimum. I understand preferring the younger option with some upside compared to an older option who was on the decline. And I am unsure about whether Wilson is the right guy to have in the locker room ahead of McCarthy given what happened in Denver.

Todays game was a good indicator of why he has been a back up Quarterback most of his career. He makes poor decisions, waits too long before he tries to look for checkdowns and makes way too many mistakes in the red zone.
I believe the talent of our offense makes him look better than he is and our defence keeps us in games by compensating for his mistakes.
Hopefully he improves but I think the house of cards may collapse. We will get into playoffs but will have fought time getting thru Philadelphia, San Francisco or Detroit.

This was a disgraceful performance and, i agree, will give other teams pause before considering any long-term contract offers.

I mean...come on. You have all this talent surrounding you and you not only NOT throw a single TD passes but throw 3 picks?



He's lucky Jones wasn't any better this game.

12-7 final is a high-scoring....BASEBALL GAME. Gross.

I don't think every game has to be some grand statement or evaluation of Darnold and his ability to get a contract in the offseason. I think the book on Sam is out and there's not a whole lot of mystery left to uncover. He will get paid by someone next offseason. Probably not 40 mil plus but he will get some decent money from someone

On the heels of Darnold's worst game of the 2024 season and seemingly regressing with each passing game, how does this current 2024 season compare to his career before Minnesota?

Courtesy of ProFootball Reference, here are Darnold's career stats:



While Darnold is having his best statistical year of his career pretty much across the board in all categories, I highlighted two categories in which he's having the worst season of his career: INT% and SACK%.

First, Darnold's 10 INT's is tied for the most in the NFL and his 3.8 INT% is the worst of his career and 4th worst in the entire NFL this year - only Will Levis, Jordan Love & Bryce Young are throwing INT's at a higher clip than Darnold.

But why? Is there something that we can glean from looking at the 10 INT's Darnold has thrown? Here's a table that lists all 10 of Darnold's INT's and I



INT's When in Scoring Position
The first thing to point out is that Darnold turning it over when the Vikings were at least in FG range was not just isolated to the JAX game; in fact, 6 of Darnold's 10 INT's came when the Vikings were in scoring position (at the opponent's 35 yd line or better), and 4 of those 6 instances came within the Redzone (opponent's 20 yd line or better). While the Vikings ultimately won each game when Darnold threw an INT while in scoring position, it's still not something you want to see and will cost us as the calendar turns to December and January and the games/situations get tougher. 

Turning it Over in Tight Games
The other alarming thing I noticed was the recent trend of throwing an INT while the score is still a one-possession game. In Week's 1-5, Darnold's INT's were all when the Vikings were up by double-digits, so they didn't really "sting" as bad. But starting in Week 6, every INT he's thrown was when the Vikings were in a one-possession ballgame, and while only one of them occurred in the 4th quarter, it's still concerning that Darnold is loose with the football in close games - that doesn't bode well for the postseason when everything is magnified.  

Sending Signals to Defense?
The other thing I found interesting is how often Darnold was in Shotgun formation - on 9 of his 10 INT's, Darnold was in the Shotgun formation. These days, the QB is in Shotgun formation over 80% of the time during pass attempts and Darnold is certainly no exception, but the issue becomes more concerning if we're also not running an equal number of rushing attempts out of the Shotgun. I haven't been able to find stats on how often we run/pass out of Shotgun vs Under Center, but just looking at highlight clips, it does seem that most of the time we run while Darnold is Under Center and throw while he's in Shotgun - the exception being play-action. That creates a problem because you are basically tipping a signal to the defense when you line up in Shotgun that it's going to be a pass, and opposing DC's and players can adjust pre-snap accordingly and possibly "sit" on routes in-anticipatoin of the ball going their way. 

While I'm not fan of Chris Collingsworth, he did have a good point during the last SNF game between the Lions/Texans when he compared Jared Goff's ability to "trick" the defense into thinking the called play was a run, when it ended up being a pass. Goff (and OC Ben Johnson) achieve this by basically mirroring the presnap formation of running/passing plays, so there's no "signs" of what type of play it is (ie, a passing play initially looks like a running play from how everyone is lined-up). 

So when Darnold breaks the huddle and lines up in Shotgun formation, there's a very high liklihood that the play is going to be a pass and the DC will adjust. O'Connell needs to counter or cover this up by calling more running plays out of Shotgun formation and keep the defense guessing the type of play that is coming. And perhaps more INT's can be avoided in the future by simply running plays out of similar formations so DB's are sitting on routes (much like the 1st INT to Jefferson in Week 10 when the DB was draped all over him, possibly anticipating a pass when Darnold lined up in Shotgun). 

Conclusion: O'Connell can Help
During a recent Locked On Vikings podcast following the Week 10 game at Jacksonville, Luke Braun mentioned that O'Connell could be playing "too aggressive" on offense at times, which is leading to some of these turnovers vs taking what the defense is giving him. Overall, O'Connell's strategy seems to be keeping his foot on the gas and calling an aggressive offense, regardless of the situation. But lately as there's been more film for DC's to digest of how the Vikings offense is performing, that strategy isn't working quite as well with Darnold turning it over during tight games and while the Vikings are in scoring position. 

If O'Connell can know when to dial-it-back and call a play that allows the Vikings to move the ball without putting it harm's way, combined with calling more running plays in Shotgun formation to keep defense off-balance when O'Connell calls a pass play from the same look, it just might cutdown on the costly INT's and lead more to Sam "progressing" vs "regressing".