It Is Worse Than You Think
Aug 16, 2024 7:45:23 GMT -6
Funkytown, Oracle Bone Diviner, and 2 more like this
Post by whoskmoon on Aug 16, 2024 7:45:23 GMT -6
After a fantastic rookie QB preseason debut, the Vikings lost the highest drafted QB in franchise history, causing fan moral to plummet and many to think the season is over before it even begins. JJ McCarthy is most likely out for the year, and even if he somehow comes back at some point this season, he is unlikely to move above 3rd on the depth chart and see no, if any meaningful playtime. Things are looking really bad for the 2024 season, and barring a miraculous jump in production from Sam Darnold, hope is very hard to come by in Purple Nation. Unfortunately, the bad doesn't end with just this season and this injury will have a huge impact on the 2025 season as well. Due to the timing of when the injury occurred, the Vikings are faced with a difficult choice next year and McCarthy is facing a challenge that no other rookie QB has faced.
Season ending injuries in training camp do occur, but aren't very common among QBs. This makes sense since the defense is not allowed to hit QBs in camp, making the only injuries possible ones that occur in limited reps in the preseason or from non-contact injuries. That is why the list of starting or rookie QBs missing the season after an injury in camp is incredibly short. In fact, McCarthy is the first rookie 1st round QB in the common draft era (since 1967) to have a season ending injury. That means McCarthy's path forward is unprecedented and we have no historical context on what missing an entire season of practices, as well as half of training camp, will do to the development of a rookie QB. It could be that he comes back to OTAs next year and the year of sitting in the film room, and watching from the sidelines similar to how fans watch the games puts him ahead of where he was when the injury occurred, or it could be that not throwing a pass in live action for 9 months and a meaningful pass since January the year prior, becomes an insurmountable obstacle that ruins a promising young QBs career. With McCarthy's obvious work ethic, it is unlikely he doesn't get something out of his extra time studying film and absorbing the playbook, but it is also unlikely that having so much time in-between live action snaps wouldn’t have a large impact on how quickly he is able to read defenses and make decisions, as well as just his accuracy throwing the ball in general.
So how much will this impact McCarthy’s physical abilities? There are no rookies to compare McCarthy's situation too, but we do have some veterans who lost entire seasons and at least part of the preseason. Vikings fans are very familiar with Bridgewater’s injury prior to the 2016 season after two fantastic preseason games (maybe Vikings fans need to start hoping their QBs play like garbage in preseason?) and we all know how Bridgewater’s career ended up after that time away from the game. The other QB that comes to mind with this injury timing is Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill actually hurt his knee towards the end of the 2016, and reinjured it during a non-contact play during the 2017 preseason. The Dolphins used a 1st round pick to trade for one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL…sorry, they didn’t panic and just signed a veteran QB who was available and Tannehill missed all of 2017. Fast forward to 2018 and while Tannehill wasn’t terrible, he did end up dropping from 230.4 yards per game to 179.9, his previous lowest yard per game average was 205.9. A huge drop in production that might have been from a shift in talent and play calling, but was more likely the result of his play considering his backup averaged 242.4 yards per game. Something was off with Tannehill from the start that season, and the culprit was likely his time sitting on the sidelines in 2017. There is some good we can get out of the Tannehill story though, following that 2018 season Tannehill ended up having a great half a season in Tennessee, and seemed to recover nicely until age finally caught up with him. It took him a season to knock off the rust, but he did do it. The same is true for Michael Vick who needed a year after his two seasons out of the league before he was better than ever. DeShaun Watson on the other hand has yet to recover from his time away from football.
We can find more good news looking at rookies who missed a good chunk of the season due to season ending injuries. Joe Burrow missed the final 6 weeks of the season and ended up going to the Super Bowl in his second season. Deshaun Watson was knocked out week 7 with a season ending injury, and was fantastic in his 2nd year. There is a big difference between 6+ games in the regular season and only half a training camp and no regular season games though.
There also the examples of Brady who got knocked out for the season week 1 and Manning who missed all of 2011 and came back great, but they had already been playing for years and are two of the best all-time. Not great comparisons, but positive comeback stories nonetheless.
Knowing how historically missing an entire season(s) has hurt veteran QBs, let alone rookies, that leaves the Vikings with a difficult choice next year. At the time of McCarthy’s injury, KOC did not feel McCarthy was a better QB than Sam Darnold and it is unlikely McCarthy will be able to do anything on the field, in practice or in games, to change that prior to the draft and free agency next year. Yes, KOC likes what he saw so far, but it wasn’t good enough to earn a start week 1, and is he willing to gamble a season on McCarthy making a massive leap next year? Without the Vikings surprising everyone and making the playoffs this year in a tough division and with one of the most difficult schedules in decades, he and Kwesi will be on the hotseat in 2025, and KOC will have no idea what he has in his 10th overall pick. That means the Vikings will likely use some valuable assets, most likely just cap space, but possibly trading picks in 2026 too, on a veteran QB to hedge their bets with McCarthy. Maybe that means bringing back Darnold if he is just okay for the Vikings, but more likely it is a veteran like a Russel Wilson or Justin Fields. There is also the possibility the Vikings are drafting in the top 3 next year and are forced to consider drafting another QB. Likely they trade down in that situation with how few picks they have, but knowing that they have no idea what McCarthy will be, is that the right decision?
Enjoy the 2024 season, have hope that things work out this year and next, but anyone telling you there is a silver lining to this is blowing smoke up your butt. The difficult decisions to be made next year along with the damage done to McCarthy’s development are very real, and this is much, much worse than McCarthy sitting on the sidelines with the clipboard ready to go in if Sam goes down. How much worse is debatable, but there is no question it is bad. Fans need to cling to what they saw in camp and the first preseason game and hope McCarthy’s familiarity with the offense overcomes the rust that sitting for nearly an entire year brings. It could happen, but Vikings, so it won’t.
Season ending injuries in training camp do occur, but aren't very common among QBs. This makes sense since the defense is not allowed to hit QBs in camp, making the only injuries possible ones that occur in limited reps in the preseason or from non-contact injuries. That is why the list of starting or rookie QBs missing the season after an injury in camp is incredibly short. In fact, McCarthy is the first rookie 1st round QB in the common draft era (since 1967) to have a season ending injury. That means McCarthy's path forward is unprecedented and we have no historical context on what missing an entire season of practices, as well as half of training camp, will do to the development of a rookie QB. It could be that he comes back to OTAs next year and the year of sitting in the film room, and watching from the sidelines similar to how fans watch the games puts him ahead of where he was when the injury occurred, or it could be that not throwing a pass in live action for 9 months and a meaningful pass since January the year prior, becomes an insurmountable obstacle that ruins a promising young QBs career. With McCarthy's obvious work ethic, it is unlikely he doesn't get something out of his extra time studying film and absorbing the playbook, but it is also unlikely that having so much time in-between live action snaps wouldn’t have a large impact on how quickly he is able to read defenses and make decisions, as well as just his accuracy throwing the ball in general.
So how much will this impact McCarthy’s physical abilities? There are no rookies to compare McCarthy's situation too, but we do have some veterans who lost entire seasons and at least part of the preseason. Vikings fans are very familiar with Bridgewater’s injury prior to the 2016 season after two fantastic preseason games (maybe Vikings fans need to start hoping their QBs play like garbage in preseason?) and we all know how Bridgewater’s career ended up after that time away from the game. The other QB that comes to mind with this injury timing is Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill actually hurt his knee towards the end of the 2016, and reinjured it during a non-contact play during the 2017 preseason. The Dolphins used a 1st round pick to trade for one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL…sorry, they didn’t panic and just signed a veteran QB who was available and Tannehill missed all of 2017. Fast forward to 2018 and while Tannehill wasn’t terrible, he did end up dropping from 230.4 yards per game to 179.9, his previous lowest yard per game average was 205.9. A huge drop in production that might have been from a shift in talent and play calling, but was more likely the result of his play considering his backup averaged 242.4 yards per game. Something was off with Tannehill from the start that season, and the culprit was likely his time sitting on the sidelines in 2017. There is some good we can get out of the Tannehill story though, following that 2018 season Tannehill ended up having a great half a season in Tennessee, and seemed to recover nicely until age finally caught up with him. It took him a season to knock off the rust, but he did do it. The same is true for Michael Vick who needed a year after his two seasons out of the league before he was better than ever. DeShaun Watson on the other hand has yet to recover from his time away from football.
We can find more good news looking at rookies who missed a good chunk of the season due to season ending injuries. Joe Burrow missed the final 6 weeks of the season and ended up going to the Super Bowl in his second season. Deshaun Watson was knocked out week 7 with a season ending injury, and was fantastic in his 2nd year. There is a big difference between 6+ games in the regular season and only half a training camp and no regular season games though.
There also the examples of Brady who got knocked out for the season week 1 and Manning who missed all of 2011 and came back great, but they had already been playing for years and are two of the best all-time. Not great comparisons, but positive comeback stories nonetheless.
Knowing how historically missing an entire season(s) has hurt veteran QBs, let alone rookies, that leaves the Vikings with a difficult choice next year. At the time of McCarthy’s injury, KOC did not feel McCarthy was a better QB than Sam Darnold and it is unlikely McCarthy will be able to do anything on the field, in practice or in games, to change that prior to the draft and free agency next year. Yes, KOC likes what he saw so far, but it wasn’t good enough to earn a start week 1, and is he willing to gamble a season on McCarthy making a massive leap next year? Without the Vikings surprising everyone and making the playoffs this year in a tough division and with one of the most difficult schedules in decades, he and Kwesi will be on the hotseat in 2025, and KOC will have no idea what he has in his 10th overall pick. That means the Vikings will likely use some valuable assets, most likely just cap space, but possibly trading picks in 2026 too, on a veteran QB to hedge their bets with McCarthy. Maybe that means bringing back Darnold if he is just okay for the Vikings, but more likely it is a veteran like a Russel Wilson or Justin Fields. There is also the possibility the Vikings are drafting in the top 3 next year and are forced to consider drafting another QB. Likely they trade down in that situation with how few picks they have, but knowing that they have no idea what McCarthy will be, is that the right decision?
Enjoy the 2024 season, have hope that things work out this year and next, but anyone telling you there is a silver lining to this is blowing smoke up your butt. The difficult decisions to be made next year along with the damage done to McCarthy’s development are very real, and this is much, much worse than McCarthy sitting on the sidelines with the clipboard ready to go in if Sam goes down. How much worse is debatable, but there is no question it is bad. Fans need to cling to what they saw in camp and the first preseason game and hope McCarthy’s familiarity with the offense overcomes the rust that sitting for nearly an entire year brings. It could happen, but Vikings, so it won’t.
... and neither is this Chris guy.