Rushing Success

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Reignman
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Posts: 44,244

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Fan Since: 1984

Rushing Success Nov 11, 2017 20:21:40 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Reignman on Nov 11, 2017 20:21:40 GMT -6

Nov 10, 2017 20:29:47 GMT -6 Funkytown said:

And more from skepticismissurvival:

In addition, on his 22 touches, he had just two first downs. He gave the ball to the Seahawks twice (1 fumble, 1 safety). He also ran the ball 21 times but had just two "successful" runs (defined as 45% of the yards needed on first down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down).

Nov 11, 2017 13:15:24 GMT -6 Reignman said:

             1ST DOWN         2ND DOWN         3RD DOWN         TOTAL         NEGATIVE
          SUC ATT   PCT    SUC ATT   PCT    SUC ATT   PCT    SUC ATT   PCT      RUNS
McKinnon   15  35  42.9%     9  25  36.0%     2   9  22.2%    26  69  37.7%   10  14.5%
Murray     13  53  24.5%     7  23  30.4%     2   2 100.0%    22  78  28.2%   15  19.2%
Cook       16  44  36.4%    15  28  53.6%     2   2 100.0%    33  74  44.6%    5   6.8%
Keenum      0   3   0.0%     3   4  75.0%     2   3  66.7%     5  10  50.0%    4  40.0%
Diggs       0   2   0.0%     0   1   0.0%     0   0   0.0%     0   3   0.0%    2  66.7%
Ham         1   2  50.0%     0   0   0.0%     0   0   0.0%     1   2  50.0%    0   0.0%
Bradford    0   1   0.0%     0   1   0.0%     0   0   0.0%     0   2   0.0%    2 100.0%
Thielen     0   0   0.0%     1   1 100.0%     0   0   0.0%     1   1 100.0%    0   0.0%
TOTAL      45 140  32.1%    35  83  42.2%     8  16  50.0%    88 239  36.8%   38  15.9%

I'm just going to carry this stuff over to it's own topic because I may or may not have plans to share a bunch of rushing goodies.

I also think we might have to redefine what a successful run means for the following reasons. Here are the league averages based on this guys 45/60/100 criteria.

req     down   league avg
 45% on 1st      35.1%
 60% on 2nd      45.3%
100% on 3rd/4th  52.1%

45% seems like a reasonable gain on 1st down, but when you look at the results, only 35.1% of 1st down runs end up being considered "successful" at that rate. It jumps up to 44.9%, and makes it more consistent with the other downs if we require just 40% of the yards to gain on 1st down. So that's what I'm going to roll with from now on, 40/60/100.

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

Reignman
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Posts: 44,244

Likes: 30,158
Fan Since: 1984

Rushing Success Nov 11, 2017 20:42:23 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Reignman on Nov 11, 2017 20:42:23 GMT -6

Highest percent of successful runs on each down. A successful run defined as gaining 40% of the yards to gain on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down and 100% on 3rd down. So if you gain 4 yards on 1st and 10 it's a succesful run. Gain 3 yards on 2nd and 5 it's successful, and picking up a first down on 3rd/4th down.

2016

Team Offense:

SPOILER: Click to show

RK  TEAM                     ATT   YDS   AVG  TD   1ST DOWN    2ND DOWN    3RD/4TH     TOTAL  (RK)
 1. New Orleans              403  1740  4.32  17   51.8% ( 3)  56.0% ( 1)  63.0% ( 4)  54.59% ( 1)
 2. Dallas                   499  2383  4.78  24   52.4% ( 2)  53.5% ( 2)  60.0% ( 7)  53.51% ( 2)
 3. Buffalo                  492  2630  5.35  29   53.6% ( 1)  51.6% ( 6)  55.4% (12)  53.25% ( 3)
 4. Tennessee                475  2199  4.63  16   48.9% ( 7)  53.5% ( 2)  58.5% ( 9)  51.79% ( 4)
 5. Philadelphia             440  1802  4.10  16   51.1% ( 4)  49.3% (11)  44.4% (24)  49.55% ( 5)
 6. Cincinnati               446  1769  3.97  17   44.9% (18)  52.3% ( 5)  56.5% (10)  48.65% ( 6)
 7. Washington               379  1696  4.47  17   42.7% (22)  52.6% ( 4)  68.4% ( 1)  48.28% ( 7)
 8. Pittsburgh               409  1763  4.31  13   48.2% ( 8)  49.0% (12)  44.4% (24)  48.17% ( 8)
 9. Chicago                  380  1733  4.56  10   50.7% ( 5)  43.7% (16)  48.4% (20)  48.16% ( 9)
10. Arizona                  399  1736  4.35  20   47.2% ( 9)  42.9% (17)  63.6% ( 2)  47.12% (10)
11. Indianapolis             410  1616  3.94  13   45.1% (17)  48.6% (13)  50.9% (17)  47.07% (11)
12. Green Bay                374  1705  4.56  11   43.9% (20)  50.9% ( 8)  52.1% (16)  47.06% (12)
12. San Francisco            459  2019  4.40  15   50.7% ( 5)  36.8% (30)  61.2% ( 5)  47.06% (12)
14. Atlanta                  421  1928  4.58  20   47.2% ( 9)  44.3% (15)  52.5% (15)  46.79% (14)
15. N.Y. Jets                419  1789  4.27  10   39.5% (28)  51.4% ( 7)  60.4% ( 6)  46.06% (15)
16. Carolina                 453  1815  4.01  16   45.6% (12)  40.8% (25)  54.5% (13)  45.03% (16)
16. Oakland                  433  1926  4.45  17   46.2% (11)  42.8% (19)  47.1% (22)  45.03% (16)
18. New England              482  1872  3.88  19   45.2% (16)  42.9% (17)  50.0% (18)  45.02% (18)
19. Baltimore                367  1463  3.99  10   45.6% (12)  35.5% (31)  60.0% ( 7)  43.87% (19)
20. Jacksonville             392  1631  4.16   8   44.3% (19)  41.6% (24)  47.1% (22)  43.62% (20)
21. L.A. Chargers            398  1510  3.79  10   38.8% (30)  47.8% (14)  63.6% ( 2)  43.47% (21)
22. Houston                  457  1861  4.07   9   45.4% (15)  38.5% (28)  49.2% (19)  43.33% (22)
23. Kansas City              412  1749  4.25  15   41.6% (25)  41.8% (23)  52.6% (14)  43.20% (23)
24. Tampa Bay                452  1619  3.58   8   39.2% (29)  50.3% (10)  42.9% (28)  43.14% (24)
25. Seattle                  404  1588  3.93  13   43.7% (21)  42.2% (21)  42.9% (28)  43.07% (25)
26. Detroit                  349  1308  3.75   9   41.7% (24)  40.2% (26)  55.6% (11)  42.69% (26)
27. Cleveland                350  1712  4.89  13   45.5% (14)  35.4% (32)  43.5% (26)  42.00% (27)
28. Miami                    405  1829  4.52  14   42.0% (23)  42.1% (22)  37.9% (32)  41.73% (28)
29. L.A. Rams                375  1252  3.34   9   40.6% (27)  38.3% (29)  47.2% (21)  40.53% (29)
30. Minnesota                380  1199  3.16   9   40.9% (26)  38.8% (27)  41.7% (31)  40.26% (30)
31. Denver                   411  1484  3.61  11   37.9% (31)  42.7% (20)  41.8% (30)  40.15% (31)
32. N.Y. Giants              397  1406  3.54   6   32.5% (32)  50.4% ( 9)  43.2% (27)  39.29% (32)

Team Defense:

SPOILER: Click to show

RK  TEAM                     ATT   YDS   AVG  TD   1ST DOWN    2ND DOWN    3RD/4TH     TOTAL  (RK)
 1. N.Y. Jets                429  1575  3.67  11   36.8% ( 3)  37.4% ( 2)  42.6% ( 5)  37.80% ( 1)
 2. L.A. Rams                424  1660  3.92  12   35.7% ( 1)  37.2% ( 1)  60.9% (29)  38.90% ( 2)
 3. Baltimore                385  1425  3.70  10   39.4% ( 4)  42.9% (12)  39.0% ( 2)  40.50% ( 3)
 4. Jacksonville             447  1701  3.81  18   40.2% ( 7)  37.9% ( 4)  56.0% (22)  41.20% ( 4)
 5. Carolina                 374  1462  3.91  11   35.8% ( 2)  45.9% (17)  66.7% (32)  42.00% ( 5)
 6. Tennessee                356  1414  3.97  10   43.5% (11)  43.5% (13)  37.5% ( 1)  42.70% ( 6)
 7. Philadelphia             391  1649  4.22  10   41.9% ( 8)  39.7% ( 6)  59.0% (25)  43.00% ( 7)
 8. N.Y. Giants              397  1417  3.57  10   43.7% (12)  39.9% ( 7)  51.2% (15)  43.10% ( 8)
 9. L.A. Chargers            410  1567  3.82  20   44.5% (13)  39.0% ( 5)  50.0% (10)  43.40% ( 9)
10. Pittsburgh               369  1600  4.34  15   39.8% ( 5)  40.7% ( 9)  66.0% (31)  43.60% (10)
11. Arizona                  424  1523  3.59  16   46.0% (19)  40.3% ( 8)  52.3% (17)  44.60% (11)
11. New Orleans              397  1626  4.10  19   45.0% (14)  42.0% (11)  51.4% (16)  44.60% (11)
13. Chicago                  444  1948  4.39  18   43.0% (10)  47.6% (22)  46.2% ( 6)  44.80% (13)
14. Green Bay                376  1523  4.05  11   45.5% (16)  37.8% ( 3)  60.5% (27)  44.90% (14)
14. Seattle                  441  1488  3.37  16   42.0% ( 9)  45.5% (16)  55.2% (21)  44.90% (14)
16. Cincinnati               413  1811  4.38  12   45.8% (17)  44.6% (14)  46.8% ( 8)  45.50% (16)
17. Houston                  397  1595  4.02  13   47.8% (25)  41.9% (10)  46.2% ( 6)  45.60% (17)
18. Buffalo                  468  2130  4.55  21   47.3% (24)  48.2% (24)  39.0% ( 2)  46.60% (18)
18. New England              369  1417  3.84   6   45.8% (17)  44.9% (15)  59.4% (26)  46.60% (18)
20. Minnesota                404  1711  4.24   9   45.0% (14)  46.9% (19)  56.1% (23)  46.80% (20)
21. Denver                   482  2089  4.33  15   46.2% (20)  46.1% (18)  60.8% (28)  47.70% (21)
21. Oakland                  421  1882  4.47  18   46.9% (22)  48.3% (25)  50.0% (10)  47.70% (21)
23. Dallas                   341  1327  3.89   9   39.9% ( 6)  55.6% (30)  62.2% (30)  47.80% (23)
24. San Francisco            547  2647  4.84  25   46.4% (21)  47.3% (20)  58.2% (24)  47.90% (24)
25. Miami                    464  2239  4.83  12   48.1% (26)  47.4% (21)  50.0% (10)  48.10% (25)
26. Cleveland                497  2277  4.58  18   47.0% (23)  50.0% (26)  50.0% (10)  48.30% (26)
27. Atlanta                  369  1675  4.54  15   51.4% (30)  48.1% (23)  52.9% (19)  50.40% (27)
28. Indianapolis             410  1921  4.69  12   49.4% (28)  55.6% (30)  41.9% ( 4)  51.00% (28)
29. Tampa Bay                427  1875  4.39  15   51.5% (31)  50.7% (29)  50.0% (10)  51.10% (29)
30. Kansas City              437  1943  4.45  10   51.3% (29)  50.6% (28)  52.8% (18)  51.30% (30)
31. Detroit                  389  1701  4.37   8   49.0% (27)  55.6% (30)  54.0% (20)  51.90% (31)
32. Washington               423  1914  4.52  19   54.0% (32)  50.0% (26)  48.8% ( 9)  52.20% (32)

Top Individual Rushers: (minimum 100 attempts)

SPOILER: Click to show

RK  TEAM                     ATT   YDS   AVG  TD   1ST DOWN    2ND DOWN    3RD/4TH     TOTAL  (RK)
 1. BUF Mike Gillislee       101   577  5.71   8   63.6% ( 1)  71.4% ( 1)  72.2% ( 2)  67.33% ( 1)
 2. NOS Mark Ingram          205  1043  5.09   6   57.0% ( 4)  57.1% ( 6)  57.1% (14)  57.07% ( 2)
 3. DAL Ezekiel Elliott      322  1630  5.06  15   54.9% ( 5)  55.3% ( 7)  58.3% (11)  55.28% ( 3)
 4. NYJ Bilal Powell         131   714  5.45   3   52.3% ( 8)  57.5% ( 5)  57.7% (13)  54.96% ( 4)
 5. TEN Derrick Henry        110   490  4.45   5   58.3% ( 2)  51.9% (12)  50.0% (22)  54.55% ( 5)
 6. NOS Tim Hightower        133   548  4.12   4   48.1% (15)  59.6% ( 3)  66.7% ( 4)  53.38% ( 6)
 7. PIT Le'Veon Bell         261  1268  4.86   7   54.5% ( 6)  52.6% ( 8)  47.8% (30)  53.26% ( 7)
 8. PHI Ryan Mathews         155   661  4.26   8   57.1% ( 3)  40.0% (31)  50.0% (22)  50.97% ( 8)
 9. KAN Spencer Ware         214   922  4.31   3   49.1% (11)  50.7% (14)  55.6% (18)  50.47% ( 9)
10. TEN DeMarco Murray       293  1287  4.39   9   46.8% (20)  50.9% (13)  68.0% ( 3)  50.17% (10)
11. BUF LeSean McCoy         234  1267  5.41  13   50.7% ( 9)  48.6% (16)  42.9% (32)  49.57% (11)
12. ATL Devonta Freeman      227  1079  4.75  11   49.0% (12)  48.4% (18)  57.1% (14)  49.34% (12)
13. TAM Jacquizz Rodgers     129   560  4.34   2   41.1% (31)  60.0% ( 2)  54.5% (19)  48.84% (13)
14. ARZ David Johnson        293  1239  4.23  16   48.8% (14)  46.1% (24)  60.9% ( 8)  48.81% (14)
14. CHI Jordan Howard        252  1315  5.22   6   49.0% (12)  48.2% (19)  50.0% (22)  48.81% (14)
16. GRB Christine Michael    148   583  3.94   7   43.8% (26)  59.6% ( 3)  37.5% (38)  48.65% (16)
17. IND Frank Gore           263  1026  3.90   4   44.9% (25)  52.6% ( 8)  50.0% (22)  47.91% (17)
18. OAK Latavius Murray      195   788  4.04  12   45.3% (23)  47.8% (20)  59.1% (10)  47.69% (18)
19. SFF Carlos Hyde          217   988  4.55   6   54.0% ( 7)  36.5% (38)  57.9% (12)  47.47% (19)
20. WAS Robert Kelley        168   704  4.19   6   45.3% (23)  46.3% (21)  60.0% ( 9)  46.43% (20)
21. MIN Matt Asiata          121   402  3.32   6   46.2% (21)  48.6% (16)  42.1% (34)  46.28% (21)
22. HOU Alfred Blue          100   420  4.20   1   46.9% (19)  43.2% (28)  57.1% (14)  46.00% (22)
23. JAX Chris Ivory          117   439  3.75   3   50.6% (10)  32.4% (40)  50.0% (22)  45.30% (23)
24. NYG Paul Perkins         112   456  4.07   0   36.7% (38)  52.6% ( 8)  50.0% (22)  43.75% (24)
25. CIN Jeremy Hill          222   839  3.78   9   41.2% (30)  46.2% (23)  53.8% (20)  43.69% (25)
26. ATL Tevin Coleman        118   520  4.41   8   47.0% (18)  38.1% (34)  40.0% (35)  43.22% (26)
27. DEN Devontae Booker      174   612  3.52   4   42.4% (27)  46.3% (21)  33.3% (39)  43.10% (27)
28. HOU Lamar Miller         268  1073  4.00   5   47.5% (17)  37.4% (35)  40.0% (35)  42.91% (28)
28. LAC Melvin Gordon        254   997  3.93  10   37.1% (37)  50.0% (15)  66.7% ( 4)  42.91% (28)
30. MIA Jay Ajayi            259  1267  4.89   8   42.2% (28)  43.6% (27)  45.5% (31)  42.86% (30)
31. CAR Jonathan Stewart     218   825  3.78   9   40.0% (33)  43.0% (29)  64.3% ( 7)  42.66% (31)
32. NEP LeGarrette Blount    298  1159  3.89  18   41.7% (29)  41.2% (30)  53.8% (20)  42.62% (32)
33. BAL Terrance West        193   774  4.01   5   48.0% (16)  25.0% (42)  50.0% (22)  41.45% (33)
34. TAM Doug Martin          144   421  2.92   3   35.9% (39)  52.4% (11)  40.0% (35)  40.97% (34)
35. CLE Isaiah Crowell       198   952  4.81   7   45.8% (22)  27.1% (41)  75.0% ( 1)  40.40% (35)
36. NYJ Matt Forte           218   813  3.73   7   35.7% (40)  44.2% (26)  66.7% ( 4)  40.37% (36)
37. LAR Todd Gurley          278   885  3.18   6   40.0% (33)  36.8% (36)  57.1% (14)  40.29% (37)
38. SEA Thomas Rawls         109   349  3.20   3   40.0% (33)  36.8% (36)  50.0% (22)  39.45% (38)
39. DEN C.J. Anderson        110   437  3.97   4   37.5% (36)  39.5% (33)  31.3% (41)  37.27% (39)
40. MIN Jerick McKinnon      159   539  3.39   2   40.9% (32)  32.8% (39)  20.0% (42)  37.11% (40)
41. JAX T.J. Yeldon          130   465  3.58   1   34.8% (41)  40.0% (31)  33.3% (39)  36.92% (41)
42. NYG Rashad Jennings      180   587  3.26   3   31.4% (42)  44.4% (25)  42.9% (32)  36.67% (42)

Last Edit: Nov 11, 2017 20:52:59 GMT -6 by Reignman

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

Shoutbox

Oracle Bone Diviner: I have an 8:30 start time every day. Oct 2, 2024 21:52:13 GMT -6

MichaelRay: Do you get a notification if someone replies to your post? Oct 3, 2024 12:45:04 GMT -6

Funkytown: Yes. It'll show up in your profile whenever someone quotes or likes one of your posts. Oct 3, 2024 17:55:59 GMT -6

NoresemanSam: I don't even have a start time unless I have an early plane to catch. Sunday's game? That's why God gave us DVRs. Oct 4, 2024 10:59:51 GMT -6

steve: Aaron Jones hurt? Oct 6, 2024 8:29:05 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Pick 6 for Week 6: purplepainforums.com/thread/8045/purple-pains-pick-6-week Oct 8, 2024 10:40:12 GMT -6

andhesloose28: I miss the quick quote button greatly or maybe im getting old and forgot how to do it..

Oct 8, 2024 13:47:40 GMT -6

Reignman: quick quote has been a bit buggy for whatever reason, no idea why, sometimes it works, sometimes not *shrug*

Oct 8, 2024 15:13:38 GMT -6

NoresemanSam: screen refresh on a desktop browser will sometimes wake up quick quote Oct 9, 2024 14:30:03 GMT -6

Reignman: actually I think quick quote is working all the time, except sometimes it's at the first post way up the screen for some reason, if you scroll up fast enough you'll find it xD Oct 13, 2024 18:48:34 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Pick 6 for Week 7: purplepainforums.com/thread/8064/purple-pains-pick-6-week Oct 15, 2024 9:51:37 GMT -6

purplepeopleeaters: Go Vikings beat the lions. Fan since Super Bowl IV, Jan, 1970. Oct 18, 2024 20:26:43 GMT -6

Maestro: Quick Quote should be working again ... code helper Chris over at proboards sent us a solution. *thumb_up*

Oct 21, 2024 3:59:10 GMT -6

Reignman: if you asked me, this Maestro guy isn't getting paid enough *whistle*

... and neither is this Chris guy. Oct 21, 2024 4:14:34 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Purple Pain's Pick 6 for Week 8: purplepainforums.com/thread/8083/purple-pains-pick-6-week Oct 22, 2024 9:46:41 GMT -6

ATXVike: whatever spence says is my prediction...that's the most realistic Oct 24, 2024 12:26:25 GMT -6

genolaweb: How about giving Josh Oliver a shot ay left tackle? Oct 26, 2024 9:17:43 GMT -6

NoresemanSam: Maestro is worth twice what he is getting paid. Oct 27, 2024 19:46:26 GMT -6

NoresemanSam: That was a joke. If I have to tell folks it was a joke, it probably wasn't a very good joke... (roflmao)

Oct 27, 2024 23:39:02 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Purple Pain's Pick 6 for Week 9: purplepainforums.com/thread/8109/purple-pains-pick-6-week Oct 29, 2024 9:33:03 GMT -6

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Rushing Success

Post by Reignman on Nov 11, 2017 20:21:40 GMT -6

Post by Reignman on Nov 11, 2017 20:42:23 GMT -6

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