NFC North Preview - Depth Chart Comparison
Jul 12, 2024 21:22:58 GMT -6
Funkytown, Oracle Bone Diviner, and 2 more like this
Post by Danchat on Jul 12, 2024 21:22:58 GMT -6
The NFC North has gone from a relatively weak division to one of the strongest in no time at all - so let's take some time to analyze all of the rosters and compare them. I'll be using my usual PFF depth charts to do so, if you aren't familiar with them, the cliffnotes are that they show the overall PFF grades for the players' previous three seasons, with more emphasis on 2023. The lineups are projected starters for 2024, I used some articles from The Athletic to source them for the other NFC North teams. Now, without any further ado:
Let's go over the strengths and weaknesses for every team.
Offenses
Bears
Strength: WRs and upside
Chicago has top 5 upside with the offensive talent they have - DJ Moore put up the 6th most yards in the NFL and Kmet caught 70 passes even with Fields passing to them, if Caleb Williams reaches even part of his potential the passing game will be lethal. Keenan Allen is into his 30s but was still great last year, though injuries are a concern. Odunze is WR1 in several other WR classes (like 2023) and is a luxury piece in a loaded WR room. And for as average Kmet is, he still caught 70 passes and went over 700 yards.
Weakness: OL and run game
Despite their mostly positive PFF grades, the Bears OL had several clunkers last year, and injuries to the interior in 2023 was part of that. Coleman is the one new addition at center, while RG Davis is reportedly competing for a starting job despite landing a 3/$30M deal a year ago. Meanwhile, the Bears spent money on D'Andre Swift, who despite the counting numbers was one of the least efficient runners in the NFL as the Eagles' elite OL disguised his flaws. Herbert and Johnson are likely better runners than him.
Packers
Strength: Youth & Upside
The Packers showed immense upside after cratering in the first half of 2023, and if Love picks back up from where he left off in the playoffs then this offense will be a powerhouse. They have a wide range of weapons who are capable starters but don't have a superstar like the other NFC North teams - 4 WRs and 2 TEs showed promise at some point in 2023. And they always seem to find a way to put together a competent OL, despite a couple question marks this year. Josh Jacobs was the league leading rusher in 2022 and isn't at the age drop-off point yet.
Weakness: Injuries & Regression
There aren't any glaring weaknesses here, but there are plenty of names who could be considered injury-prone. Watson has had a hard time getting on the field, while Reed had issues staying healthy. Musgrave missed a big chunk of the year while Kraft has missed the whole 2024 offseason with an injury. It's also worth noting that Josh Jacobs was not good last year, and it's not a sure thing he rebounds back to his 2022 form. The Packers had problems running the ball when Aaron Jones wasn't playing last year, given AJ Dillon's ineffectiveness (which is hopefully remedied by the Lloyd pick).
Lions
Strength: OL + OC
The Lions offense was not a fluke last year, and given Ben Johnson's surprising return, I don't see any reason for them to regress. Their OL has no weaknesses and powers the run game with the thunder and lightning combo of Montgomery & Gibbs, while the passing game relies on two top-tier talents in St. Brown and LaPorta. Jared Goff has been put into near-perfect situation (for the second time in his career) where he can operate Johnson's system that plays to his strengths.
Weakness: Depth at WR/TE
The only weakness I see for Detroit is a gaping hole at WR - Jameson Williams hasn't produced and is being hyped up as a WR2 despite his inability to consistently get open and catch passes. Kalif Raymond is a solid returner and a capable deep threat, but he is likely to be a below average player if given too much volume. The next best receiving TE on the team behind LaPorta is of practice squad-caliber. Given Detroit lost the NFC Championship primarily due to two drops from their WR2 Josh Reynolds on two 4th downs, I thought they would try to improve the roster at that spot.
Vikings
Strength: Weapons / Intermediate passing
It is incredibly hard to cover the combo of Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson when they are all running routes. Add in O'Connell's ability to design passing plays, and this is a formula that enabled even Nick Mullens to put up big passing numbers. The run game should improve with Aaron Jones being a massive upgrade from Mattison, given his 100+ yard game streak that he finished the year on. The tackle combo is one of the best in the game and many of the league's best edge rushers are limited when they face them.
Weakness: QB / interior OL
There's no denying that Sam Darnold is a massive drop-off from Kirk Cousins, and it's hard to believe that Darnold's penchant for tossing picks and fumbling the ball is going to disappear given all three of his interior OL are poor (or unproven) pass protectors. Bridge QBs don't last for a reason. The run game is still a big concern given the coaching staff's inability to design run plays that mesh with the OL's and RB's strengths, and O'Connell's penchant for abandaning the run very quickly may not work like it had in 2022-23 when the passing game was more reliable. It's also not a given that Hockenson returns to 100% when he hits the field, as for many players it takes until Year 2 until they return to their prior form.
Defenses
Bears
Strength: Star power + coaching
I don't think PFF gives Montez Sweat and Jaylon Johnson enough credit. Sweat turned the team's pass rush around after being acquired in a trade and Johnson made the leap to being a top 5 CB. Add in Matt Eberflus' track record of getting more out of less the past couple years, and it could be a formula for a top 10 unit.
Weakness: Secondary + pass rush outside of Sweat
The Bears barely got by with Stevenson/Gordon/Terrell Smith at CB last year and don't have a clear winner between them, and didn't add a veteran to compete with this group. Byard's play began to fall off last year as he enters his 30, as it's more likely his best days are behind him. They also didn't add any significant names to the DE or DT rooms, whereas I was afraid they might pounce on Danielle Hunter. For these reasons, I could see some passing attacks finding success against the Bears.
Packers
Strength: Pass Rush & Upside
Green Bay featured 4 players with 48 or more pressures (Gary,Clark, Smith, Wyatt), and could add another name to that list if 2023 1st rounder Van Ness takes a step forward. Plenty of young names like Wyatt, Van Ness, Brooks, Walker, and Slaton have upside to continue improving. And they even landed my favorite ILB of the class in Cooper, so like their offense, their defense is young and the arrow is pointing up. Signing SS Xavier McKinney to a big-money deal should help the leaky run defense.
Weakness: Run defense & CB2
The Packers got plowed in the run game with teams racking up 2,181 yards against them at 4.4 yards per carry. They're bringing back the same front seven minus De'Vondre Campbell so it will be up to internal players to fill these holes. CB2 also went unaddressed over the offseason, as they hope Eric Stokes can live up to his first round billing despite flopping so far, and the depth at that position isn't great. Given Alexander missing about half the snaps last year, they may be due for an acqusition there.
Lions
Stength: Playmakers
On paper, this defense is frightening. Their one big weakness was CB, and so GM Brad Holmes spammed the fix button by trading for Davis and then spending a 1st and 2nd on Arnold and Rakestraw. That's on top of having Branch, Robertson, and Moseley there. They paired NT Reader with McNeill which should make the run defense even better, and signed a worthy DE to pair with Hutchinson in Davenport... if he stays healthy. Melifonwu came out of nowhere to have a fantastic year and was an instant playmaker. And I didn't even mention that Terrion Arnold had no business falling to them and has legitimate CB1 potential. The sky is the limit for this unit.
Weakness: Injuries
You might think "isn't it linebackers?" but I think PFF is inaccurate on their grades for a lot of linebackers in the NFL. Anzalone and Barnes were not bad players last year, and having a couple pedestrian LBs when your DL and secondary are great isn't a big deal. Instead, it's injuries - Carlton Davis always seems to be hurt, Reader is coming off a serious injury, and Davenport is made of glass. Outside of that it's hard to see any weaknesses here - even despite how flimsy their defense got in the second half of 2023.
Vikings
Strength: Coaching and versatility
This defense should have been way worse than it was given the talent it had, yet Brian Flores made the most of what he was given and proved he is a top tier DC. Now he has more tools to work with with three dangerous edge rushers in addition to three starting safeties and one of the better ILB combos in the game. Already having a top 10 run defense, if the pass rush can come along and rely less on blitzes to generate pressure, it will be another great year for Flores.
Weakness: CB and interior pass rush
Cornerback has been a problem for years, and while there is more depth than years past, the starters are still easily below average. Murphy is miscast as a top corner but is still by far the best player on the unit, and Shaq Griffin wasn't good enough to start in Houston or Carolina. Evans was abysmal down the stretch of 2023, so it's up to Mekhi Blackmon to step up. Booth Jr is unlikely to help. The interior pass rush is probably the worst in the NFL (again), but it's not a huge deal given Flores' ability to use every other position to rush the passer. But it's notable that both the Lions and Packers have two iDLs who are way better than any DL on the Vikings' roster and that counts for something.
Rankings:
Tier 1: Lions
Tier 2: Packers
Tier 3: Bears / Vikings
I think the Lions easily have the best roster in the division. They retained their best players and loaded up on talent over the offseason, and their biggest move was keeping Ben Johnson.
It's also clear that the Packers are #2. They have tons of upside given the amount of young talent and the difference between their first and second halves in 2023 were night-and-day. Matt LaFleur hasn't had an off year yet.
The Vikings and Bears are close, but they came at this from two different approaches. The Bears tanked and by a roundabout way got their QB of the future, whereas the Vikings continued to try winning games and retooled rather than rebuilt. They landed QB5 of the draft, and then the Bears took a potential WR1 and the Vikings took a potential #1 edge rusher.
I would take the Bears' offense over the Vikes, and the Vikings defense over the Bears'. As for who is better, it may come down to which rookie QB is better on the year. And for as much as I like McCarthy, I would bet on Williams. Though I am not sold on their offensive coaching staff.
Alright, that's enough from me. What do you think about the other NFC North teams?
Let's go over the strengths and weaknesses for every team.
Offenses
Bears
Strength: WRs and upside
Chicago has top 5 upside with the offensive talent they have - DJ Moore put up the 6th most yards in the NFL and Kmet caught 70 passes even with Fields passing to them, if Caleb Williams reaches even part of his potential the passing game will be lethal. Keenan Allen is into his 30s but was still great last year, though injuries are a concern. Odunze is WR1 in several other WR classes (like 2023) and is a luxury piece in a loaded WR room. And for as average Kmet is, he still caught 70 passes and went over 700 yards.
Weakness: OL and run game
Despite their mostly positive PFF grades, the Bears OL had several clunkers last year, and injuries to the interior in 2023 was part of that. Coleman is the one new addition at center, while RG Davis is reportedly competing for a starting job despite landing a 3/$30M deal a year ago. Meanwhile, the Bears spent money on D'Andre Swift, who despite the counting numbers was one of the least efficient runners in the NFL as the Eagles' elite OL disguised his flaws. Herbert and Johnson are likely better runners than him.
Packers
Strength: Youth & Upside
The Packers showed immense upside after cratering in the first half of 2023, and if Love picks back up from where he left off in the playoffs then this offense will be a powerhouse. They have a wide range of weapons who are capable starters but don't have a superstar like the other NFC North teams - 4 WRs and 2 TEs showed promise at some point in 2023. And they always seem to find a way to put together a competent OL, despite a couple question marks this year. Josh Jacobs was the league leading rusher in 2022 and isn't at the age drop-off point yet.
Weakness: Injuries & Regression
There aren't any glaring weaknesses here, but there are plenty of names who could be considered injury-prone. Watson has had a hard time getting on the field, while Reed had issues staying healthy. Musgrave missed a big chunk of the year while Kraft has missed the whole 2024 offseason with an injury. It's also worth noting that Josh Jacobs was not good last year, and it's not a sure thing he rebounds back to his 2022 form. The Packers had problems running the ball when Aaron Jones wasn't playing last year, given AJ Dillon's ineffectiveness (which is hopefully remedied by the Lloyd pick).
Lions
Strength: OL + OC
The Lions offense was not a fluke last year, and given Ben Johnson's surprising return, I don't see any reason for them to regress. Their OL has no weaknesses and powers the run game with the thunder and lightning combo of Montgomery & Gibbs, while the passing game relies on two top-tier talents in St. Brown and LaPorta. Jared Goff has been put into near-perfect situation (for the second time in his career) where he can operate Johnson's system that plays to his strengths.
Weakness: Depth at WR/TE
The only weakness I see for Detroit is a gaping hole at WR - Jameson Williams hasn't produced and is being hyped up as a WR2 despite his inability to consistently get open and catch passes. Kalif Raymond is a solid returner and a capable deep threat, but he is likely to be a below average player if given too much volume. The next best receiving TE on the team behind LaPorta is of practice squad-caliber. Given Detroit lost the NFC Championship primarily due to two drops from their WR2 Josh Reynolds on two 4th downs, I thought they would try to improve the roster at that spot.
Vikings
Strength: Weapons / Intermediate passing
It is incredibly hard to cover the combo of Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson when they are all running routes. Add in O'Connell's ability to design passing plays, and this is a formula that enabled even Nick Mullens to put up big passing numbers. The run game should improve with Aaron Jones being a massive upgrade from Mattison, given his 100+ yard game streak that he finished the year on. The tackle combo is one of the best in the game and many of the league's best edge rushers are limited when they face them.
Weakness: QB / interior OL
There's no denying that Sam Darnold is a massive drop-off from Kirk Cousins, and it's hard to believe that Darnold's penchant for tossing picks and fumbling the ball is going to disappear given all three of his interior OL are poor (or unproven) pass protectors. Bridge QBs don't last for a reason. The run game is still a big concern given the coaching staff's inability to design run plays that mesh with the OL's and RB's strengths, and O'Connell's penchant for abandaning the run very quickly may not work like it had in 2022-23 when the passing game was more reliable. It's also not a given that Hockenson returns to 100% when he hits the field, as for many players it takes until Year 2 until they return to their prior form.
Defenses
Bears
Strength: Star power + coaching
I don't think PFF gives Montez Sweat and Jaylon Johnson enough credit. Sweat turned the team's pass rush around after being acquired in a trade and Johnson made the leap to being a top 5 CB. Add in Matt Eberflus' track record of getting more out of less the past couple years, and it could be a formula for a top 10 unit.
Weakness: Secondary + pass rush outside of Sweat
The Bears barely got by with Stevenson/Gordon/Terrell Smith at CB last year and don't have a clear winner between them, and didn't add a veteran to compete with this group. Byard's play began to fall off last year as he enters his 30, as it's more likely his best days are behind him. They also didn't add any significant names to the DE or DT rooms, whereas I was afraid they might pounce on Danielle Hunter. For these reasons, I could see some passing attacks finding success against the Bears.
Packers
Strength: Pass Rush & Upside
Green Bay featured 4 players with 48 or more pressures (Gary,Clark, Smith, Wyatt), and could add another name to that list if 2023 1st rounder Van Ness takes a step forward. Plenty of young names like Wyatt, Van Ness, Brooks, Walker, and Slaton have upside to continue improving. And they even landed my favorite ILB of the class in Cooper, so like their offense, their defense is young and the arrow is pointing up. Signing SS Xavier McKinney to a big-money deal should help the leaky run defense.
Weakness: Run defense & CB2
The Packers got plowed in the run game with teams racking up 2,181 yards against them at 4.4 yards per carry. They're bringing back the same front seven minus De'Vondre Campbell so it will be up to internal players to fill these holes. CB2 also went unaddressed over the offseason, as they hope Eric Stokes can live up to his first round billing despite flopping so far, and the depth at that position isn't great. Given Alexander missing about half the snaps last year, they may be due for an acqusition there.
Lions
Stength: Playmakers
On paper, this defense is frightening. Their one big weakness was CB, and so GM Brad Holmes spammed the fix button by trading for Davis and then spending a 1st and 2nd on Arnold and Rakestraw. That's on top of having Branch, Robertson, and Moseley there. They paired NT Reader with McNeill which should make the run defense even better, and signed a worthy DE to pair with Hutchinson in Davenport... if he stays healthy. Melifonwu came out of nowhere to have a fantastic year and was an instant playmaker. And I didn't even mention that Terrion Arnold had no business falling to them and has legitimate CB1 potential. The sky is the limit for this unit.
Weakness: Injuries
You might think "isn't it linebackers?" but I think PFF is inaccurate on their grades for a lot of linebackers in the NFL. Anzalone and Barnes were not bad players last year, and having a couple pedestrian LBs when your DL and secondary are great isn't a big deal. Instead, it's injuries - Carlton Davis always seems to be hurt, Reader is coming off a serious injury, and Davenport is made of glass. Outside of that it's hard to see any weaknesses here - even despite how flimsy their defense got in the second half of 2023.
Vikings
Strength: Coaching and versatility
This defense should have been way worse than it was given the talent it had, yet Brian Flores made the most of what he was given and proved he is a top tier DC. Now he has more tools to work with with three dangerous edge rushers in addition to three starting safeties and one of the better ILB combos in the game. Already having a top 10 run defense, if the pass rush can come along and rely less on blitzes to generate pressure, it will be another great year for Flores.
Weakness: CB and interior pass rush
Cornerback has been a problem for years, and while there is more depth than years past, the starters are still easily below average. Murphy is miscast as a top corner but is still by far the best player on the unit, and Shaq Griffin wasn't good enough to start in Houston or Carolina. Evans was abysmal down the stretch of 2023, so it's up to Mekhi Blackmon to step up. Booth Jr is unlikely to help. The interior pass rush is probably the worst in the NFL (again), but it's not a huge deal given Flores' ability to use every other position to rush the passer. But it's notable that both the Lions and Packers have two iDLs who are way better than any DL on the Vikings' roster and that counts for something.
Rankings:
Tier 1: Lions
Tier 2: Packers
Tier 3: Bears / Vikings
I think the Lions easily have the best roster in the division. They retained their best players and loaded up on talent over the offseason, and their biggest move was keeping Ben Johnson.
It's also clear that the Packers are #2. They have tons of upside given the amount of young talent and the difference between their first and second halves in 2023 were night-and-day. Matt LaFleur hasn't had an off year yet.
The Vikings and Bears are close, but they came at this from two different approaches. The Bears tanked and by a roundabout way got their QB of the future, whereas the Vikings continued to try winning games and retooled rather than rebuilt. They landed QB5 of the draft, and then the Bears took a potential WR1 and the Vikings took a potential #1 edge rusher.
I would take the Bears' offense over the Vikes, and the Vikings defense over the Bears'. As for who is better, it may come down to which rookie QB is better on the year. And for as much as I like McCarthy, I would bet on Williams. Though I am not sold on their offensive coaching staff.
Alright, that's enough from me. What do you think about the other NFC North teams?
... and neither is this Chris guy.