Post by Purple Pain on May 8, 2024 10:31:05 GMT -6
Warren Ludford: Breaking Down Dallas Turner
Rest at the link above.^^^
Purple Insider: Dallas Turner pick is about calculating the reward
Matt Fries: Don't Let the Trade-Value Debate Distract From Dallas Turner's Elite Skills
RUN DEFENSE
PASS RUSH
COVERAGE
ATHLETICISM
As always, great read from Fries at the link above. Film study and analysis. ^^^
Dane Brugler, The Athletic
STRENGTHS: Built with explosive muscle fibers throughout his long, athletic frame … rushes with the get-off burst and body flexibility to dip/bend the corner … shows a variety of moves, including a deadly ghost move … above-average speed with an extra gear to close in pursuit or from the backside … flashes strong, firm hands for aggressive stabs (his nickname at Alabama was “Stab Club Dal”) … explosive at contact to work off blocks or drive blockers into the lap of the quarterback … sets a hard edge versus the run, using his length and explosive hands to nonchalantly shock and torque passive blockers from their spot … skillfully sees through blockers, and strength makes him a magnet for offensive holding calls … elite motor; his switch never turns off … has the athleticism to comfortably drop into coverage … voted a team captain in 2023, with Nick Saban saying Turner set a “high standard” with work ethic and care for doing the little things … welcomes hard coaching and “wants to be pushed,” according to high school DC Jason Taylor … set career bests in production in his third season.
WEAKNESSES: Average bulk and should continue growing into his frame … needs to continue strengthening his lower body … can do a better jo b setting up blockers to counter without thinking … snap anticipation can be more consistent (three offsides penalties in 2023) … aggressive nature can backfire and needs to be a better finisher in short areas (also had two personal fouls vs. LSU in 2023) … had several quiet tapes as a pass rusher (three or fewer pressures in nine of 14 starts in 2023).
SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Alabama, Turner played the SAM linebacker position in former coach Nick Saban’s hybrid 3-4 scheme, lining up in both a two- and three-point stance. He had a mentor-apprentice relationship with 2023 first-round pick Will Anderson Jr. (they’re also best friends) and filled his shoes admirably in 2023, earning consensus All-American honors with an SEC-best 11 sacks. As a pass rusher, Turner is quick off the ball to get underneath blocks or bury his hands into the chest of blockers to convert his speed to power. Despite lacking ideal bulk, he plays physically at the point of attack and is a strong run defender (aside from some missed tackles that need to be cleaned up) with an elite competitive motor. Overall, Turner is a long, explosive edge rusher with the body twitch, hand usage and play strength to leverage blocks and be disruptive in multiple ways. He has the freaky tools to be a potential impact player in the NFL who should continue to improve as his body and rush attack mature
STRENGTHS: Built with explosive muscle fibers throughout his long, athletic frame … rushes with the get-off burst and body flexibility to dip/bend the corner … shows a variety of moves, including a deadly ghost move … above-average speed with an extra gear to close in pursuit or from the backside … flashes strong, firm hands for aggressive stabs (his nickname at Alabama was “Stab Club Dal”) … explosive at contact to work off blocks or drive blockers into the lap of the quarterback … sets a hard edge versus the run, using his length and explosive hands to nonchalantly shock and torque passive blockers from their spot … skillfully sees through blockers, and strength makes him a magnet for offensive holding calls … elite motor; his switch never turns off … has the athleticism to comfortably drop into coverage … voted a team captain in 2023, with Nick Saban saying Turner set a “high standard” with work ethic and care for doing the little things … welcomes hard coaching and “wants to be pushed,” according to high school DC Jason Taylor … set career bests in production in his third season.
WEAKNESSES: Average bulk and should continue growing into his frame … needs to continue strengthening his lower body … can do a better jo b setting up blockers to counter without thinking … snap anticipation can be more consistent (three offsides penalties in 2023) … aggressive nature can backfire and needs to be a better finisher in short areas (also had two personal fouls vs. LSU in 2023) … had several quiet tapes as a pass rusher (three or fewer pressures in nine of 14 starts in 2023).
SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Alabama, Turner played the SAM linebacker position in former coach Nick Saban’s hybrid 3-4 scheme, lining up in both a two- and three-point stance. He had a mentor-apprentice relationship with 2023 first-round pick Will Anderson Jr. (they’re also best friends) and filled his shoes admirably in 2023, earning consensus All-American honors with an SEC-best 11 sacks. As a pass rusher, Turner is quick off the ball to get underneath blocks or bury his hands into the chest of blockers to convert his speed to power. Despite lacking ideal bulk, he plays physically at the point of attack and is a strong run defender (aside from some missed tackles that need to be cleaned up) with an elite competitive motor. Overall, Turner is a long, explosive edge rusher with the body twitch, hand usage and play strength to leverage blocks and be disruptive in multiple ways. He has the freaky tools to be a potential impact player in the NFL who should continue to improve as his body and rush attack mature
Rest at the link above.^^^
Purple Insider: Dallas Turner pick is about calculating the reward
The Vikings trading up to select the Alabama star rusher is not a decision that is backed by many folks who write about data in football. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell wrote a massive article on the history and risks of trading up and SumerSports’ Eric Eager pointed out that edge rushers picked in the range of Turner only have their fifth-year options picked up 53% of the time.
The draft value charts were not a fan of the move to pick Turner, particularly if you add in what it cost for the Vikings to get the 23rd overall pick. I suppose you can debate whether that’s fair since we know that they acquired No. 23 to give themselves a chance to land Drake Maye in a trade up — it wasn’t exactly for Turner.
Either way, sending No. 167 and two mid-round picks next year is a lot.
On the Purple Insider podcast, Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said that what he respected about Wolves president of basketball operations Tim Connelly was that he was willing to push the chips to the middle of the table on the Rudy Gobert trade despite criticism that the Wolves gave up too much. That decision has paid off in spades this year for Minnesota’s basketball club. We can pretty easily make the connection between going all-in for Gobert and the mentality that Adofo-Mensah was taking when moving up to get Turner.
Here’s where the right-here-right-now mentality of the coach cliche comes in. The Vikings must have felt that their situation under a microscope made the ultra-aggressive play more reasonable. There are a few factors we can bake into the analysis that apply specifically to this trade rather than the broad history of moving up.
One is that this was a very strange year in the draft. The only defensive player in the top 10 of Arif Hasan’s consensus big board was Turner. Not to mention three quarterbacks who were not top-10 consensus players were taken in the top 12 picks. The six overall top-12 QBs was a record — by a mile — and it pushed everyone else down the board.
It wasn’t by accident. Teams at the top were incredibly desperate to take QBs and none of them wanted to be like Washington when they took Chase Young and passed up on Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa.
You can’t exactly say that Turner was more like the 11th pick than the 17th but since the QB-needy teams weren’t even considering going with a defensive player in their spots then it seems like something we have to factor. If the Vikings traded a third, fourth and 167 for the 11th overall pick, the charts might be more friendly.
Turner ranked ninth on the consensus board. He was a highly productive player with 10.0 sacks and strong underlying numbers like QB pressures and pass-rush win rate. He is a fit for Brian Flores’ defense with his versatility. He scored in the 89th percentile by Relative Athletic Score — though that was due to being undersized. He was 99th, 96th, 90th, 99th and 97th in the drills that he participated in and has an 88th percentile wingspan.
If we look historically at top-15 consensus edge rushers since the Hasan started doing a consensus board in 2017, we find the following group:
2017 — Myles Garrett, Solomon Thomas, Hasaan Reddick, Derek Barnett
2018 — Bradley Chubb, Harold Landry
2019 — Nick Bosa, Josh Allen, Brian Burns, Montez Sweat
2020 — Chase Young
2021 — Kwity Paye
2022 — Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Travon Walker, Jermaine Johnson
2023 — Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, Myles Murphy
Included in this bunch are edge rushers that rank No. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 15, and 19 in average annual salary. It won’t be long before Hutchinson and Anderson join that list.
There are also some busts and mid players mixed in. That’s the risk. If he turns out to be as good as Kwity Paye, who had 8.5 sacks last year and ranked 39th among edge rushers by PFF, then they probably gave up too much. It’s a high bar. But the reward is absolutely massive.
Turner is set to make around $16 million over the four years that he’s on his rookie deal. Brian Burns makes $28 million per year. If Turner becomes a top-notch player, which his background and consensus board ranking would suggest is possible, the gap in cap savings between Turner and the top edge rushers is enormous. It’s not exactly the same level cap hack as a rookie QB contract but it’s getting closer as edge rusher prices go up. That has to matter in the equation.
We have to look at the Vikings specifically as a landing spot for this move. This year’s roster is not ready to win a Super Bowl but nobody should be drafting rookies to be the “final piece” to a Super Bowl team anyway. Usually it’s 2-3 years out. In the case of the Vikings roster, we can see everything lining up for their “window” to really open in 2025.
For teams that have successfully picked QBs in the draft, Year 2 or 3 is when they have usually taken the leap forward. We saw this from the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, Bills with Josh Allen, Bengals with Joe Burrow, the Eagles with Jalen Hurts, the Ravens with Lamar Jackson etc.
Yes, you have to hit on the quarterback but everyone knows that. If that QB is ready to roll, then it’s go time with the rest of the roster.
It has been noted that the Vikings have $100 million in cap space to work with next year. It’s important that their cap space number isn’t inflated because they have no talent. Assuming Justin Jefferson signs an extension, the only players set to be free agents next year that are currently starters are Aaron Jones, Byron Murphy Jr., Harrison Smith, Harrison Phillips and Cam Bynum.
With most of the Vikings’ positions filled with young players or players in their prime, they can use their cap space to sign more starters in free agency where needed and fill out the depth. We have to remember that the Wilf ownership has not been afraid to push money down the road when they are in win-now mode as we saw from 2018 and 2019 (and unfortunately too many years after that as well).
Drafting third and fourth rounders in 2025 could eventually matter. Will it matter in 2025 and 2026 when they are looking for the roster to peak? Hard to say. It is worth noting that the Vikings have not picked a difference-making third or fourth-rounder since 2015.
So specifically within the context of this draft, this team, this player, this position, the trade up for Turner looks different than your usual “we love that guy” trade up.
What are the odds that it pays off big time? Well, just like those fourth downs, the difference between it paying off and failing are probably close. But it’s not just a matter of works vs. doesn’t work. The Vikings took the path that is more likely to lead to something special. The “works” side of the equation comes with huge payoff. The “doesn’t work” comes with some penalty but hardly insurmountable.
There are different ways to interpret the math. Adofo-Mensah described it as “taking off the Clark Kent glasses” despite his appreciation for spreadsheets and calculators. But on one side of the spreadsheet the calculation comes out with the Vikings landing a cornerstone player that helps them compete for a Super Bowl. In their mind that was worth the other side of the pie chart that may be a bit larger.
The draft value charts were not a fan of the move to pick Turner, particularly if you add in what it cost for the Vikings to get the 23rd overall pick. I suppose you can debate whether that’s fair since we know that they acquired No. 23 to give themselves a chance to land Drake Maye in a trade up — it wasn’t exactly for Turner.
Either way, sending No. 167 and two mid-round picks next year is a lot.
On the Purple Insider podcast, Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said that what he respected about Wolves president of basketball operations Tim Connelly was that he was willing to push the chips to the middle of the table on the Rudy Gobert trade despite criticism that the Wolves gave up too much. That decision has paid off in spades this year for Minnesota’s basketball club. We can pretty easily make the connection between going all-in for Gobert and the mentality that Adofo-Mensah was taking when moving up to get Turner.
Here’s where the right-here-right-now mentality of the coach cliche comes in. The Vikings must have felt that their situation under a microscope made the ultra-aggressive play more reasonable. There are a few factors we can bake into the analysis that apply specifically to this trade rather than the broad history of moving up.
One is that this was a very strange year in the draft. The only defensive player in the top 10 of Arif Hasan’s consensus big board was Turner. Not to mention three quarterbacks who were not top-10 consensus players were taken in the top 12 picks. The six overall top-12 QBs was a record — by a mile — and it pushed everyone else down the board.
It wasn’t by accident. Teams at the top were incredibly desperate to take QBs and none of them wanted to be like Washington when they took Chase Young and passed up on Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa.
You can’t exactly say that Turner was more like the 11th pick than the 17th but since the QB-needy teams weren’t even considering going with a defensive player in their spots then it seems like something we have to factor. If the Vikings traded a third, fourth and 167 for the 11th overall pick, the charts might be more friendly.
Turner ranked ninth on the consensus board. He was a highly productive player with 10.0 sacks and strong underlying numbers like QB pressures and pass-rush win rate. He is a fit for Brian Flores’ defense with his versatility. He scored in the 89th percentile by Relative Athletic Score — though that was due to being undersized. He was 99th, 96th, 90th, 99th and 97th in the drills that he participated in and has an 88th percentile wingspan.
If we look historically at top-15 consensus edge rushers since the Hasan started doing a consensus board in 2017, we find the following group:
2017 — Myles Garrett, Solomon Thomas, Hasaan Reddick, Derek Barnett
2018 — Bradley Chubb, Harold Landry
2019 — Nick Bosa, Josh Allen, Brian Burns, Montez Sweat
2020 — Chase Young
2021 — Kwity Paye
2022 — Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Travon Walker, Jermaine Johnson
2023 — Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, Myles Murphy
Included in this bunch are edge rushers that rank No. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 15, and 19 in average annual salary. It won’t be long before Hutchinson and Anderson join that list.
There are also some busts and mid players mixed in. That’s the risk. If he turns out to be as good as Kwity Paye, who had 8.5 sacks last year and ranked 39th among edge rushers by PFF, then they probably gave up too much. It’s a high bar. But the reward is absolutely massive.
Turner is set to make around $16 million over the four years that he’s on his rookie deal. Brian Burns makes $28 million per year. If Turner becomes a top-notch player, which his background and consensus board ranking would suggest is possible, the gap in cap savings between Turner and the top edge rushers is enormous. It’s not exactly the same level cap hack as a rookie QB contract but it’s getting closer as edge rusher prices go up. That has to matter in the equation.
We have to look at the Vikings specifically as a landing spot for this move. This year’s roster is not ready to win a Super Bowl but nobody should be drafting rookies to be the “final piece” to a Super Bowl team anyway. Usually it’s 2-3 years out. In the case of the Vikings roster, we can see everything lining up for their “window” to really open in 2025.
For teams that have successfully picked QBs in the draft, Year 2 or 3 is when they have usually taken the leap forward. We saw this from the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, Bills with Josh Allen, Bengals with Joe Burrow, the Eagles with Jalen Hurts, the Ravens with Lamar Jackson etc.
Yes, you have to hit on the quarterback but everyone knows that. If that QB is ready to roll, then it’s go time with the rest of the roster.
It has been noted that the Vikings have $100 million in cap space to work with next year. It’s important that their cap space number isn’t inflated because they have no talent. Assuming Justin Jefferson signs an extension, the only players set to be free agents next year that are currently starters are Aaron Jones, Byron Murphy Jr., Harrison Smith, Harrison Phillips and Cam Bynum.
With most of the Vikings’ positions filled with young players or players in their prime, they can use their cap space to sign more starters in free agency where needed and fill out the depth. We have to remember that the Wilf ownership has not been afraid to push money down the road when they are in win-now mode as we saw from 2018 and 2019 (and unfortunately too many years after that as well).
Drafting third and fourth rounders in 2025 could eventually matter. Will it matter in 2025 and 2026 when they are looking for the roster to peak? Hard to say. It is worth noting that the Vikings have not picked a difference-making third or fourth-rounder since 2015.
So specifically within the context of this draft, this team, this player, this position, the trade up for Turner looks different than your usual “we love that guy” trade up.
What are the odds that it pays off big time? Well, just like those fourth downs, the difference between it paying off and failing are probably close. But it’s not just a matter of works vs. doesn’t work. The Vikings took the path that is more likely to lead to something special. The “works” side of the equation comes with huge payoff. The “doesn’t work” comes with some penalty but hardly insurmountable.
There are different ways to interpret the math. Adofo-Mensah described it as “taking off the Clark Kent glasses” despite his appreciation for spreadsheets and calculators. But on one side of the spreadsheet the calculation comes out with the Vikings landing a cornerstone player that helps them compete for a Super Bowl. In their mind that was worth the other side of the pie chart that may be a bit larger.
Matt Fries: Don't Let the Trade-Value Debate Distract From Dallas Turner's Elite Skills
The Minnesota Vikings’ selection of Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner with the 17th-overall pick has generated a ton of discussion, but not necessarily about who Turner is as a player. Because of Minnesota’s trade-up to get him, most of the debate has been centered around the draft picks it cost the Vikings to take Turner.
Getting appropriate value for picks and making smart draft-day trades absolutely matters. From a process perspective, the Vikings almost certainly took a loss in spending the capital they did to move up for Turner. But if you had told anyone before the draft that Minnesota would come out of the first round with J.J. McCarthy and Dallas Turner, they would have likely called you insane. Everyone was projecting the Vikings to have to trade both of their picks to go up and get McCarthy. Meanwhile, Turner was projected to go off the board before Minnesota had a pick in most mock drafts.
The idea of a steal is probably overrated. However, now that Turner is on the team, his pre-draft projection, draft slot, or capital spent to get him doesn’t really matter. The cost is sunk, and now we should turn to who Turner is as a player and what he can contribute to the Vikings. I went to the tape to figure that out. I was able to watch Turner’s 2023 games against Texas, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia, and Michigan.
Getting appropriate value for picks and making smart draft-day trades absolutely matters. From a process perspective, the Vikings almost certainly took a loss in spending the capital they did to move up for Turner. But if you had told anyone before the draft that Minnesota would come out of the first round with J.J. McCarthy and Dallas Turner, they would have likely called you insane. Everyone was projecting the Vikings to have to trade both of their picks to go up and get McCarthy. Meanwhile, Turner was projected to go off the board before Minnesota had a pick in most mock drafts.
The idea of a steal is probably overrated. However, now that Turner is on the team, his pre-draft projection, draft slot, or capital spent to get him doesn’t really matter. The cost is sunk, and now we should turn to who Turner is as a player and what he can contribute to the Vikings. I went to the tape to figure that out. I was able to watch Turner’s 2023 games against Texas, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia, and Michigan.
RUN DEFENSE
PASS RUSH
COVERAGE
ATHLETICISM
CONCLUSION
Dallas Turner checks a lot of boxes that you want to see in a first-round pick. He’s a young, productive player with a great athletic profile, and Turner backs that profile up on tape.
Turner has heavy hands to create initial knockback and squeeze lanes as a run defender. He can read the RB well and has active hands to disengage from blocks and get in on plays. While he often wins initial contact, he lacks the functional strength to consistently hold his ground against stronger tackles and will get driven off of double teams. Hopefully, his strength will improve as he fills out his frame. Turner also has rare athleticism to make plays most edges can’t on outside runs.
As a pass rusher, Turner’s bread and butter is speed-to-power. His great burst off the line of scrimmage will lead to oversets, which he punishes with good leverage from his long arms and quickness with an inside move. In rare instances, opposing tackles with great technique can anchor and shut him down, which may happen more at the pro level than it does in college. When cornering the edge, he shows a variety of moves to disengage from blockers with good but not elite bend. Turner also effectively runs stunts and should be able to be used inside to terrorize guards on rush downs.
In coverage, Turner shows nice movement skills for an edge rusher and the ability to process reads in front of him at a high level, given his position. While no one will mistake him for Fred Warner, Turner is an adequate player for zone drops and some man coverage on RBs during exotic pressures. Turner also plays with a high motor that will serve him well when chasing down and making plays. He doesn’t loaf.
In all, Turner is a very good prospect who should have a Day 1 impact against both the run and pass as part of Minnesota’s edge-rush rotation.
Dallas Turner checks a lot of boxes that you want to see in a first-round pick. He’s a young, productive player with a great athletic profile, and Turner backs that profile up on tape.
Turner has heavy hands to create initial knockback and squeeze lanes as a run defender. He can read the RB well and has active hands to disengage from blocks and get in on plays. While he often wins initial contact, he lacks the functional strength to consistently hold his ground against stronger tackles and will get driven off of double teams. Hopefully, his strength will improve as he fills out his frame. Turner also has rare athleticism to make plays most edges can’t on outside runs.
As a pass rusher, Turner’s bread and butter is speed-to-power. His great burst off the line of scrimmage will lead to oversets, which he punishes with good leverage from his long arms and quickness with an inside move. In rare instances, opposing tackles with great technique can anchor and shut him down, which may happen more at the pro level than it does in college. When cornering the edge, he shows a variety of moves to disengage from blockers with good but not elite bend. Turner also effectively runs stunts and should be able to be used inside to terrorize guards on rush downs.
In coverage, Turner shows nice movement skills for an edge rusher and the ability to process reads in front of him at a high level, given his position. While no one will mistake him for Fred Warner, Turner is an adequate player for zone drops and some man coverage on RBs during exotic pressures. Turner also plays with a high motor that will serve him well when chasing down and making plays. He doesn’t loaf.
In all, Turner is a very good prospect who should have a Day 1 impact against both the run and pass as part of Minnesota’s edge-rush rotation.
As always, great read from Fries at the link above. Film study and analysis. ^^^