Do The Vikings Play Down to Their Competition?
Nov 2, 2017 8:08:36 GMT -6
Funkytown and Oracle Bone Diviner like this
Post by Reignman on Nov 2, 2017 8:08:36 GMT -6
Lets get to the bottom of it.
Overall:
At Home:
On The Road:
Conclusion, I think there's some evidence that we play down a little bit when we should win, ESPECIALLY on the road (not so much at home), and there's overwhelming evidence that we play up when we should lose no matter the location.
Overall we've been favored 122 times and dogs 123 times since 2002 and we're 124-123-1 during that time. At home that's 85 favored, 45 dogs with a 80-45-0 record. On the road it's 37 favored 86 dogs, with a 44-78-1 record. So we seem to disappoint more at home than on the road.
Overall:
Overall record (since 1990):
Record when our record is better than our opponent going into the game (since 1990):
Record when our record is worse than our opponent (since 1990):
Record when we're 6+ point favorites (since 2002):
Record when the spread is between -2.5 and +2.5 (since 2002):
Record when we're 6+ point underdogs (since 2002):
W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 235 204 1 .535 1.14
NFL avg 6539 6570 17 .499 -0.04
Record when our record is better than our opponent going into the game (since 1990):
W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 108 66 0 .621 3.38 Some evidence that we play down
NFL avg 2715 1641 7 .623 4.27
Record when our record is worse than our opponent (since 1990):
W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 52 72 1 .420 -1.82 We play up to our competition in this category
NFL avg 1655 2751 6 .376 -4.31
Record when we're 6+ point favorites (since 2002):
W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 26 7 0 .788 9.61 We're not playing down in this category
NFL avg 929 276 3 .770 9.48
Record when the spread is between -2.5 and +2.5 (since 2002):
W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 22 20 0 .524 -0.43 Slightly below our overall numbers so perhaps playing down some
NFL avg 516 518 2 .499 0.02
Record when we're 6+ point underdogs (since 2002):
W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 10 29 0 .256 -7.18 More evidence that we play up when we're dogs
NFL avg 273 926 3 .228 -9.55
At Home:
Overall record (since 1990):
Record when our record is better than our opponent going into the game (since 1990):
Record when our record is worse than our opponent (since 1990):
Record when we're 6+ point favorites (since 2002):
Record when the spread is between -2.5 and +2.5 (since 2002):
Record when we're 6+ point underdogs (since 2002):
W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 145 76 0 .656 4.41 We're definitely playing up at home
NFL avg 3772 2781 9 .576 2.58
Record when our record is better than our opponent going into the game (since 1990):
W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 64 20 0 .762 7.11 Again a better record than league avg but a lower winning margin
NFL avg 1476 617 3 .705 7.23
Record when our record is worse than our opponent (since 1990):
W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 33 30 0 .524 2.03 We seem to do better as underdogs
NFL avg 1037 1253 4 .453 -1.57
Record when we're 6+ point favorites (since 2002):
W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 22 3 0 .880 11.36 We're better than the league at home
NFL avg 706 200 2 .779 9.71
Record when the spread is between -2.5 and +2.5 (since 2002):
W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 14 11 0 .560 0.32 We like to win but keep it close
NFL avg 265 248 1 .517 0.71
Record when we're 6+ point underdogs (since 2002):
W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 3 5 0 .375 -3.00 Not big dogs at home very often but not too shabby when we are
NFL avg 77 222 1 .258 -8.80
On The Road:
Overall record (since 1990):
Record when our record is better than our opponent going into the game (since 1990):
W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 90 128 1 .413 -2.17 Lose more often than league avg but by less
NFL avg 2767 3789 8 .422 -2.66
Record when our record is better than our opponent going into the game (since 1990):
W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 44 46 0 .489 -0.10 Ouch, definitely playing down on the road
NFL avg 1239 1024 4 .547 1.54
Record when our record is worse than our opponent (since 1990):W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 19 42 1 .315 -5.74 Playing up when we should lose though
NFL avg 618 1498 2 .292 -7.27
Record when we're 6+ point favorites (since 2002):W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 4 4 0 .500 4.13 Not favored by 6+ too often as the road team but we're awful when we are
NFL avg 223 76 1 .745 8.77
Record when the spread is between -2.5 and +2.5 (since 2002):W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 8 9 0 .471 -1.53 Yep definitely playing down on the road
NFL avg 251 270 1 .482 -0.67
Record when we're 6+ point underdogs (since 2002):W L T PCT PT/DIFF
Minnesota 7 24 0 .226 -8.26 Again, except when we're underdogs lol
NFL avg 196 704 2 .218 -9.80
Conclusion, I think there's some evidence that we play down a little bit when we should win, ESPECIALLY on the road (not so much at home), and there's overwhelming evidence that we play up when we should lose no matter the location.
Overall we've been favored 122 times and dogs 123 times since 2002 and we're 124-123-1 during that time. At home that's 85 favored, 45 dogs with a 80-45-0 record. On the road it's 37 favored 86 dogs, with a 44-78-1 record. So we seem to disappoint more at home than on the road.
. You could say that about every team that loses after being favored, the question is, who does it more often, and by how much. Rather than look at every single team which would only show some teams are better than others, which would be obvious, I just wanted to compare us to the league average.
... and neither is this Chris guy.