TRADE!!! - Vikes have two first-rounders (11 & 23)
May 1, 2024 10:59:28 GMT -6
kmillard, VikingsVictorious, and 1 more like this
Post by Uncle on May 1, 2024 10:59:28 GMT -6
Bill Barnwell of ESPN - one of their better writers - put out an article today, 5/1/24, where he tried to answer the question of whether teams should trade up in the NFL Draft and what the numbers/data suggest based on historical data - link.
It's a relatively long and detailed article and I won't post the entire thing here (click the link to read the entire thing), and here are the overall conclusions reached based on his analysis:
- Trading up for a QB is "Ok", even if the Trade Value Charts say otherwise
- Outside of QB, trading up for premium positions (EDGE, WR, OT) is also "Ok"
- Price matters; ie, don't "overpay", especially the later in the Draft you get
- Don't trade up when the roster is "thin" and needs to restock & get younger
- Don't sacrifice future picks for lesser picks in the current year's draft
He then applies those principles and had this to say about the Viking's 2024 1st Rd decisions to trade up for both McCarthy & Turner which I pasted below. Overall, Barnwell is "Ok" with the slight trade-up for McCarthy (given point #1 above), and even though Turner is a premium position player (for point #2), he really doesn't like the value the Vikings gave up (point #3) and thinks the Viking's roster wasn't/isn't in good-enough shape to pull off that much of a "luxury" trade (point #4).
It's a relatively long and detailed article and I won't post the entire thing here (click the link to read the entire thing), and here are the overall conclusions reached based on his analysis:
- Trading up for a QB is "Ok", even if the Trade Value Charts say otherwise
- Outside of QB, trading up for premium positions (EDGE, WR, OT) is also "Ok"
- Price matters; ie, don't "overpay", especially the later in the Draft you get
- Don't trade up when the roster is "thin" and needs to restock & get younger
- Don't sacrifice future picks for lesser picks in the current year's draft
He then applies those principles and had this to say about the Viking's 2024 1st Rd decisions to trade up for both McCarthy & Turner which I pasted below. Overall, Barnwell is "Ok" with the slight trade-up for McCarthy (given point #1 above), and even though Turner is a premium position player (for point #2), he really doesn't like the value the Vikings gave up (point #3) and thinks the Viking's roster wasn't/isn't in good-enough shape to pull off that much of a "luxury" trade (point #4).
While the Vikings landed a second first-round pick in March in the hopes of trading into the top three, the fact they weren't able to do so means they essentially lit draft capital on fire when it wasn't necessary. They ended up making a modest move from No. 11 to No. 10 to land quarterback J.J. McCarthy, a deal I will take no issue with, especially given the upside of quarterbacks and the likelihood the Broncos and Raiders were considering moving up themselves.
What happened afterward only became an even bigger mess when Minnesota moved up again in Round 1 to land Turner. Although I'm sure Minnesota wasn't expecting the edge rusher to be available at No. 17, the price it had to pay to jump from No. 42 to No. 23 and then from No. 23 to No. 17 became extravagant.
In the end, the Vikings sent their second-, fifth- and sixth-round picks in 2024 and their second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2025 to add Turner. By the Stuart chart, this deal is a nightmare. They paid more than double what the No. 17 pick typically returns. They gave up something close to the equivalent of the No. 1 pick in a typical draft to land Turner by the Stuart chart.
The deal was much more reasonable by the Johnson chart, which painted this as a 25% premium, but don't be fooled. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has made myriad trades over his two previous drafts as Vikings general manager. Many of those trades looked like mistakes by the Johnson chart and victories by the more analytically inclined models, including Stuart's. Unless you think Adofo-Mensah and his front office suddenly recalculated all of their draft pick models and decided that Day 2 and Day 3 picks were all dramatically overvalued (and they're not), this was a huge mistake.
Adofo-Mensah is smart and framed this correctly for his fan base. "Obviously, I'm a spreadsheet guy myself," the general manager said, "but sometimes, you've got to step out from there, take your Clark Kent glasses off, have a championship mindset and swing for a great player." If Turner turns out to be a superstar, Vikings fans will be satisfied, even if the process that led the team there isn't thrilling.
Is this really the time for the Vikings to take that swing, though? They're coming off a 7-10 season, and their 13-4 year the season before was the mirage of all mirages, as they were outscored and ranked in the bottom quarter of the league by DVOA. The various Cousins restructures Adofo-Mensah inherited left the team in rough cap shape, which hasn't helped matters, and Minnesota's cap will be in better shape after Cousins' dead money comes off the books.
Does this team really need to consolidate its draft capital around one player? Adofo-Mensah's first draft in 2022 appears to have been a disaster, with fourth-round cornerback Akayleb Evans as the lone bright spot. Wide receiver Jordan Addison looks better from the 2023 class, but he was the only selection the Vikings had in the top 100 a year ago. Undrafted free agent Ivan Pace emerged as a standout at linebacker, but this isn't a team flooded with young talent.
Now, after McCarthy and Turner, they had no other top-100 picks in 2024 and are down their second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2025. They'll get a third-round compensatory pick for Kirk Cousins, but the decision to sign quarterback Sam Darnold appears to have canceled out the other third-rounder they expected to receive for edge rusher Danielle Hunter. That Cousins pick will also be no higher than the 97th selection. Even if McCarthy and Turner pan out, it's tough to believe Minnesota is going to build a great team around them.
What happened afterward only became an even bigger mess when Minnesota moved up again in Round 1 to land Turner. Although I'm sure Minnesota wasn't expecting the edge rusher to be available at No. 17, the price it had to pay to jump from No. 42 to No. 23 and then from No. 23 to No. 17 became extravagant.
In the end, the Vikings sent their second-, fifth- and sixth-round picks in 2024 and their second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2025 to add Turner. By the Stuart chart, this deal is a nightmare. They paid more than double what the No. 17 pick typically returns. They gave up something close to the equivalent of the No. 1 pick in a typical draft to land Turner by the Stuart chart.
The deal was much more reasonable by the Johnson chart, which painted this as a 25% premium, but don't be fooled. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has made myriad trades over his two previous drafts as Vikings general manager. Many of those trades looked like mistakes by the Johnson chart and victories by the more analytically inclined models, including Stuart's. Unless you think Adofo-Mensah and his front office suddenly recalculated all of their draft pick models and decided that Day 2 and Day 3 picks were all dramatically overvalued (and they're not), this was a huge mistake.
Adofo-Mensah is smart and framed this correctly for his fan base. "Obviously, I'm a spreadsheet guy myself," the general manager said, "but sometimes, you've got to step out from there, take your Clark Kent glasses off, have a championship mindset and swing for a great player." If Turner turns out to be a superstar, Vikings fans will be satisfied, even if the process that led the team there isn't thrilling.
Is this really the time for the Vikings to take that swing, though? They're coming off a 7-10 season, and their 13-4 year the season before was the mirage of all mirages, as they were outscored and ranked in the bottom quarter of the league by DVOA. The various Cousins restructures Adofo-Mensah inherited left the team in rough cap shape, which hasn't helped matters, and Minnesota's cap will be in better shape after Cousins' dead money comes off the books.
Does this team really need to consolidate its draft capital around one player? Adofo-Mensah's first draft in 2022 appears to have been a disaster, with fourth-round cornerback Akayleb Evans as the lone bright spot. Wide receiver Jordan Addison looks better from the 2023 class, but he was the only selection the Vikings had in the top 100 a year ago. Undrafted free agent Ivan Pace emerged as a standout at linebacker, but this isn't a team flooded with young talent.
Now, after McCarthy and Turner, they had no other top-100 picks in 2024 and are down their second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2025. They'll get a third-round compensatory pick for Kirk Cousins, but the decision to sign quarterback Sam Darnold appears to have canceled out the other third-rounder they expected to receive for edge rusher Danielle Hunter. That Cousins pick will also be no higher than the 97th selection. Even if McCarthy and Turner pan out, it's tough to believe Minnesota is going to build a great team around them.
... and neither is this Chris guy.