Post by Jor-El on Apr 25, 2024 12:28:50 GMT -6
If NE now wants McCarthy, why would they take a deal from us that drops them out of likely range to draft him? If they trade for the 11 (and more) from us, they then need to see if they can trade back up, to 9 at least. Nah, they would take a deal with the Giants instead of us.
To get to 3, Minnesota needs to get a higher pick than 11 to offer to NE. That means we trade with Atlanta. What can we offer them to make that swap? Someone may dream they would swap #8 for #11 for a 4th rounder or a 2025 3rd but I doubt it. Maybe both of those would do it, but it depends who else wants the pick. There's a tendency to think Denver and Vegas (and/or New Orleans, Seattle, the Rams) are just going to sit back to split up the leftover QBs, but maybe not.
Anyway, I think KAM will need to give NE a package that's ready to go to get the guy they want, not some later picks they could use to move back up. In other words, send them a top 10 pick. Best case for KAM:
1. Send #11 plus more 2024 picks and our 2025 3rd to Atlanta or Tennessee to get a pick ahead of Chicago (9).
2. Send #7/8 and #23 to NE for #3.
IDK if those will be enough in either case. I expect one of the deals to require our 2025 1st. I theorized earlier that our 2026 1st could also come into play tonight. We would not be the first team to trade away 3 years of 1st-round picks to move up for a QB.
I actually think there's only a 60% chance of picking a QB tonight. We're "underfunded" to move up, there is a mob of teams interested in QB, and KAM hasn't shown skill in working the draft well. If we're stuck at 11 and the top 4 QBs are gone, I think they go to other players. O'Connell's "QB Killer" speech was to get fans ready for the possibility he will veto a "pick a QB, any QB" approach. He'll spend a year with Darnold if he can't get a QB that he really believes in, and if Darnold flops we'll pick higher in '25.
... and neither is this Chris guy.