Post by PurpleFloyd on Mar 15, 2024 12:40:47 GMT -6
First, is it true that Williams "being selected at #1 isn't even being questioned"? I've read people who prefer a different QB or even non-QB (like Harrison Jr.). Those are in the minority, but you are suggesting he is universally-acclaimed with no doubters. He hasn't even held a Pro Day and didn't let his height get measured at the Combine. The grades I see for him are nowhere near what Trevor Lawrence was rated; I can find a number of pre-draft grades for Sam Darnold that greatly exceed Williams' by same evaluator (e.g., Lance Zeirlein). I would love for some of the really good evaluators on this board (ahem, Uncle , FSUVike , whoskmoon , Danchat , many others I am forgetting) to comment on whether Williams is assured of all-time-greatness.
Second, in saying, "So if there is that much talent and his being selected at #1...", you are declaring that "Quantity Equals Quality". I can't buy that. Do all elite NFL QBs come out of drafts with many other highly-drafted QBs? No. John Elway, Peyton Manning, and Pat Mahomes were in drafts with only 2 QBs in the top 10. (Many of the best weren't even high picks, but that's another debate.)
As for, "4 QBs taken in the top 10 which I believe is unprecedented in league history" - no, very rare but it happened once before, in 2018. Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen were picked in the top 10. Has Mayfield turned the Browns into a dynasty, with their rivals in the AFC North still regretting they let them draft him?
It's also very speculative to assert there will be 4 taken in the top 10. A lot can happen between now and April 25. I think 3 (Williams, Daniels, Maye) are highly likely to go that high, but McCarthy or any other going that high seems 50-50 to me. I think it's a lot more likely 3 will go fast and 1 or 2 will go to the teams drafting 11-14 (Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, Saints). There have been a number of drafts with 3 QBs in the top 10:
2023: 3 QBs in top 10 - Young, Stroud, Richardson
2021: 3 QBs in top 10 - Lawrence, Wilson, Lance - then Fields 11 and Jones 15
2018: 4 QBs in top 10 - Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen
2012: 3 QBs in top 10 - Luck, Griffen, Tannenhill
2011: 3 QBs in top 10 - Newton, Locker, Gabbert - then Ponder 12
1999: 3 QBs in top 10 - Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith - then Culpepper 11, McNown 12
1971: 3 QBs in top 10 - Plunkett, Manning, Pastorini
I would say 3 of the #1 overall picks in those drafts turned out to be the best QB selected that year: Lawrence, Luck, and Newton. But what if Williams is the 2024 version of Tim Couch, Baker Mayfield, or Jim Plunkett? (I'll leave Bryce Young out of the equation for now.) That's a 50% chance, and where are the HOFers in those high-quantity drafts? None yet, unless Newton or Luck get voted in soon.
Sorry to beat this to death, but I do not see Caleb Williams as so great that we should do ANYTHING NECESSARY to keep him away from the Bears and get him wearing purple.
I’m actually just poking a bit of fun at the whole process and your post was exactly what I was trying to drag out into the sunlight. 😉
2018 is the perfect parallel to this year and last year was close. Out of all of those picks only 2 of 7 look to be franchise type guys. And that’s probably pretty close to average which means in this draft it’s likely that there is 1 franchise guy and 3 teams that will be looking for a replacement in 3 years. So basically my position is that all of the euphoria we are going to have that we “finally have our guy” probably has about a 25% chance at best of actually happening.
As far as Williams what we SHOULD do is try to get that spot to control the draft and get the guy we want without a chance of someone outplaying us and grabbing them a spot before. Whether it’s him or anyone else there is only 1 guaranteed way to get him.
... and neither is this Chris guy.