We are going to suck in 2024

Hold on a minute: is Caleb Williams really this QB prospect you're describing, who is so good we will never see his like again? He's a great prospect, not saying otherwise. But Trevor Lawrence was rated more highly, and more anticipated as a prospect - just 3 years earlier. By my count, there have been 6 "once in a lifetime" QB prospects in the past 15 drafts: Matt Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, and Trevor Lawrence. They were all rated at least as highly as Williams. One every 2.5 years, which is a pretty short "lifetime". 5 others were picked #1 overall even though they may not have been ranked as highly (Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Bryce Young), and that doesn't count guys like CJ Stroud, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagaviloa, and that other guy you mentioned, Pat Mahomes, who were rated and picked lower but worked out alright.

Williams is not worth what you're proposing. He has some worrisome characteristics (like his ego) and Chicago might mess him up like they do most great prospects. It seems like he will be a good NFL QB - but he will not be the last great one to come out and definitely not assured of dominating our division unchallenged for the next 20 years.

How many times has a QB been considered "best in class," picked number one and wound up being a tremendous bust. I'm pretty sure there have been one or two....


It's called "desperation." It is of tremendous benefit when teams picking just outside the top ten, like at pick 11, get a top ten talent because the dumb kids have spent their capital on . KAM, don't be a dumb kid.

You have a lot of assumptions here.

First, is it true that Williams "being selected at #1 isn't even being questioned"? I've read people who prefer a different QB or even non-QB (like Harrison Jr.). Those are in the minority, but you are suggesting he is universally-acclaimed with no doubters. He hasn't even held a Pro Day and didn't let his height get measured at the Combine. The grades I see for him are nowhere near what Trevor Lawrence was rated; I can find a number of pre-draft grades for Sam Darnold that greatly exceed Williams' by same evaluator (e.g., Lance Zeirlein). I would love for some of the really good evaluators on this board (ahem, Uncle , FSUVike , whoskmoon , Danchat , many others I am forgetting) to comment on whether Williams is assured of all-time-greatness.

Second, in saying, "So if there is that much talent and his being selected at #1...", you are declaring that "Quantity Equals Quality". I can't buy that. Do all elite NFL QBs come out of drafts with many other highly-drafted QBs? No. John Elway, Peyton Manning, and Pat Mahomes were in drafts with only 2 QBs in the top 10. (Many of the best weren't even high picks, but that's another debate.)

As for, "4 QBs taken in the top 10 which I believe is unprecedented in league history" - no, very rare but it happened once before, in 2018. Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen were picked in the top 10. Has Mayfield turned the Browns into a dynasty, with their rivals in the AFC North still regretting they let them draft him?

It's also very speculative to assert there will be 4 taken in the top 10. A lot can happen between now and April 25. I think 3 (Williams, Daniels, Maye) are highly likely to go that high, but McCarthy or any other going that high seems 50-50 to me. I think it's a lot more likely 3 will go fast and 1 or 2 will go to the teams drafting 11-14 (Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, Saints). There have been a number of drafts with 3 QBs in the top 10:

2023: 3 QBs in top 10 - Young, Stroud, Richardson
2021: 3 QBs in top 10 - Lawrence, Wilson, Lance - then Fields 11 and Jones 15
2018: 4 QBs in top 10 - Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen
2012: 3 QBs in top 10 - Luck, Griffen, Tannenhill
2011: 3 QBs in top 10 - Newton, Locker, Gabbert - then Ponder 12
1999: 3 QBs in top 10 - Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith - then Culpepper 11, McNown 12
1971: 3 QBs in top 10 - Plunkett, Manning, Pastorini

I would say 3 of the #1 overall picks in those drafts turned out to be the best QB selected that year: Lawrence, Luck, and Newton. But what if Williams is the 2024 version of Tim Couch, Baker Mayfield, or Jim Plunkett? (I'll leave Bryce Young out of the equation for now.) That's a 50% chance, and where are the HOFers in those high-quantity drafts? None yet, unless Newton or Luck get voted in soon.

Sorry to beat this to death, but I do not see Caleb Williams as so great that we should do ANYTHING NECESSARY to keep him away from the Bears and get him wearing purple.

I'm not one of the resident experts but I have a take nonetheless... I don't think he's some generational talent. People see him scrambling around like crazy (he actually reminds me a little bit of Tarkenton) and think 'Oh, it's the next Patrick Mahomes!' The ability to run in circles for 45 seconds on a busted play is not what makes Patrick Mahomes who he is. He might *long* to be Patrick Mahomes after watching how he plays, might be trying to model his game on the guy. Below is what I wrote up after watching several games worth of his video. Didn't mention it but he's also a little on the short side as prospects go but imho, when you can run around and escape pressure this isn't as much of an issue.

Caleb Williams USC Jr QB 6-1 215
Good arm, sometimes overthrows deep targets. Doesn't lead receivers. Moves well in the pocket, has good awareness of where the rush is coming from, at times mad escapability--watch 3:41 mark of the video below. This can go bad at times, see 4:40 of same. Throws sidearm and off platform too much, is not as effective on these throws but seems enamored of making them frequently. Plays hero ball sometimes. More accurate on short/intermediate routes, can throw with touch as well. Shows ability to get rid of the ball on busted plays, knows when to slide. Locks on his first read most of the time but does look to other targets sometimes, especially when flushed. Takes too long to throw which won't work in the NFL. A ton of physical ability but I don't see elite processing speed or ability to run a 2 minute drill effectively (see end of the video). A likely mid-tier NFL starter. Attitude/entitlement is a question mark/red flag. His dad might be an issue for whoever drafts him as well.

I know the Vikings will find a way to lure me back in and have be interested every Sunday. It will be nice to go into a season without any expectations really. Now, I'm excited to see who they pick at QB in the draft (if they do pick a QB).

Before that it was Todd Bowles and a first year OC Jeremy Bates. Sam Darnold was drafted by a very bad team and later traded to another one.