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Final Vikings Offseason Projections (Please happen!)
Mar 8, 2024 13:37:18 GMT -6
Funkytown, Danchat, and 5 more like this
Post by tfundermann on Mar 8, 2024 13:37:18 GMT -6
We are nearly there! Just a few days until we know more of what the front office’s plan is for this team. We will know by Wednesday if Kirk is back or not with his contract expiring on the 13th. The team will either resign him by then or he will be gone. They will incur a 28.5m dead cap hit no matter what on the 13th if he is not extended by then. You are not bringing him back after that with that giant dead cap hit added to the new contract. With that being said, I am buying all of the ATL talk and change in demeanor by KOC by the end of the combine week. Kirk will not be back with the Vikings, and will either be in ATL or as a dark horse, Washington. Either way, I will be moving through this FA period under the assumption Kirk is gone and the team will do everything they can to get a top QB prospect in the draft.
STARTING CAP
To start with, the team has just over 37m in cap space after letting Kirk walk. We are also planning to let Davenport leave since he didn’t do anything anyways. This is not an insignificant number for the team. Considering they were 20m+ over the cap this time last year, having nearly 40m to spend is huge. The team is also sitting in a good spot for next year with a projected 160m in cap space assuming the cap grows to 280m next year. That is more than enough for the JJ extension, Darrisaw 5th year option/extension, and space for a couple big FA cap hits, while still leaving room for some FA work next year. Just like that this team goes from perennially tight against the cap to being one of the bigger cap space teams in the league (13th this offseason & projected top 5 right now for next year).
CUTS
First, let’s go through the basic cuts we all see happening. Dean Lowry is gone. Wasn’t good at all, and can save just over 2m in cap space by cutting him. The only other obvious one is Nick Mullens for me. He is a solid backup, but if we are truly going to draft a QB, we need more of a legit bridge guy that can teach the rookie and maybe even start the first few games of the year. I don’t see KOC wanting Mullens as that guy, and they won’t keep him and Hall with the new bridge QB and rookie. It’s a nice bonus that it saves nearly 1.9m in cap space cutting him.
This leaves us with just over 41m in cap space to use for extensions and new free agents. I am going to set aside 5m for the rookie class, and another 5m that they will keep in reserve for the season. It might be a little more or less than this for each of those things, but 10m is a nice round number so we will go with it. This puts us at 31m in usable space for the offseason. HERE WE GO!
RESTRUCTURES
There is really only 1 restructure I am considering, and that is Harrison Smith. This all comes down to what Harry wants. If he wants to ring chase, you let him do that. You can cut him and save 11.384m right away. You get the same savings if he retires, but I just don’t see him walking away yet. I am going into this thinking he will want to stay in Minnesota 1 more year. With that plan, lets rework his current deal to give him one last go as a Viking. Last year he redid his contract for a year to pay him $8m for 1 year. This deal will be for a bit less than that, but still let him make some money. I am going to convert his 2025 year to a void year, convert 4m of his nearly 15m salary this year to a signing bonus, then give him a 1.5m salary fully guaranteed. This means Harry gets a 1-year 5.5m fully guaranteed deal. This brings his cap hit down to just over 7.4m and saves 11m+ this year. It also lowers his cap hit from 22m in 2025 to just 6m (all of it dead money). This gives us 50m+ in cap space for extensions and free agents. Not a bad spot to be in.
EXTENSIONS
Let’s get a couple of the obvious extensions out of the way. First, I am bringing back Brandon Powell on a 1-year 1.5m deal. I’d be shocked if something like this doesn’t happen. From there, I want to extend Phillips to both lower his cap hit this year a little, but also keep him here for a couple years since he is a solid DT. He signed a 3-year 19.5m deal back in 2022 with the Vikings (6.5m AAV). This go around let’s give him a 2-year extension for 14.5m to give him a 3-year 21m deal with 2024 fully guaranteed and 2025 partially guaranteed at signing. Does give him a fairly substantial 9.667m cap hit in 2026, but he can be cut at that time to save 7.5m in cap space. That is what I would anticipate happening.
Next up, I want to get Cam Bynum locked up before he even sniffs FA next year. He is a pretty good safety, and thankfully isn’t so good he will command one of these mega deals at safety. It is a position I do not want to spend a crazy amount on. I view safety a lot like RB in there are always replacements available for decently cheap. That being said, it won’t be the same $4m AAV that Metellus took last year to keep Bynum. I think we are closer to the 7-8m AAV range for him. With that, let’s give him a 3-year 22.5m extension, tying him to the team through 2027. This puts him tied for 15th with Marcus Maye and Vonn Bell in AAV. That feels about right, and they both were 22.5m total value deals, with 13-14.5m in guarantees. This locks up Bynum and Metellus the next 2 years, and gets the safety cap spending under control (barely over 10m in 2025 if you exclude the Harry dead cap). The Vikings have been top 7 spenders at safety in 4 of the last 6 seasons, with the other 2 years still being in the top half of the league.
Finally, we have reached the big one. We need to get the JJ extension done. He will be the highest paid non-QB in league history, and he will have earned every dollar of it. The thing I am starting to buy into though is this will not be a 5-year extension. At best it will be 4 years, but I lean towards a 3-year extension that in effect is a 4-year total deal keeping him here through 2027. With that parameter set, let’s look at the Bosa deal to determine the AAV and guarantees we need to surpass. Bosa got a 5-year 170m deal (34m AAV) with 122.5m in total guarantees, of which 88m was fully guaranteed. That means 72% is guaranteed, and 52% fully guaranteed. We know we need to hit 35m in AAV, and it will be a 3-year extension. This gives us a total contract value of 105m, 72% guaranteed would be 75.6m, and 52% fully guaranteed puts us at just shy of 55m.
Bosa got a 50m signing bonus, so let’s do the same for JJ, however, 10m of that will be converted from his nearly 20m salary this year. This leaves us needing another 15m in full guarantees (40m from signing bonus) and 35m in all guarantees. Let’s do a 15m salary in 2025 and make it fully guaranteed at signing. That gives us our full guarantee number, and we will add a bit more shortly. Total value now is 55m leaving us 50m in salaries and bonus in 2026 and 2027. Let’s do a 20m salary in 2026 and 2027. Then we will add a 5m roster bonus to each season. That gives us our 3-year 105m extension. We are sitting with 65m in total guarantees, so we need to go back and add a bit more. Based on what I have read and heard, the sticking point so far is guarantees in year 2 of the extension. Let’s solve that issue and give JJ that entire 20m salary in 2026 guaranteed at signing. This obviously pushes his full guarantees through the roof, but it does make things simple, and do we really anticipate JJ retiring or being bad enough to cut in just 2 years that it would be a problem? I sure don’t. Plus, a guaranteed salary does not prevent a trade, it does not get added to the trading teams cap at all, unless he is cut. This brings JJ’s total extension up to a 3-year 105m deal, with 85m in total guarantees, 75m of them fully guaranteed at signing, and an average annual value of 35m. All of this to make him the highest paid non-QB by AAV in the league. It also gives him 10m more in total guarantees than any other WR contract, and 23m more in full guarantees. His 4-year deal is still 125m total and a 31.25m AAV. That AAV would still be the highest for any WR ever, and right on par with Bosa’s 31.5m AAV over the 6-years of his full deal.
Gives JJ some higher cap hits in 2026 and 2027, but if we are going down the rookie QB path, we have the room for it, and I have no issues paying the best player at his position that kind of money. The best part of all of these extensions, in total the 4 extensions will add just .674m to the cap in 2024. NOW, they do add just over 40m in cap hits to the 2025 cap and 54 in 2026, but as I said at the beginning, this team had 160m in projected cap space next year. All of the cuts, restructures, and extensions still leaves them with over 115m in cap space right now for 2025, and 173m in 2026. They are doing just fine. The one glaring extension candidate I haven’t addressed yet is Danielle Hunter. I personally would bring him back if you can get him at 3-years 60-65m, however, I can easily see the team saying we are doing this rebuild thing by not bring back Kirk, we are also moving on from Hunter at his age and cap hits. For now, I am going to hold off on resigning him, however, if after I work through the FAs I have room to bring him back, I will.
FREE AGENTS
There are a couple specific positions I am looking for in free agency. The first and most important is the D Line. If Hunter walks or not, this team needs at least 1 solid EDGE and 1 pass rushing DT. I also want to look into upgrades along the iOL at both guard spots. I don’t think Ingram is BAD, but if I can upgrade his spot or the LG from Risner, I will. Finally, if there is an option that fits financially at CB I will do it. A WR3/4 wouldn’t hurt, a backup LB, and then a solid RB depth add are all things I will consider as well.
First up, let’s get our bridge QB for this year so we know we have someone that can lead the team if all else fails. The big 2 options are Sam Darnold and Gardner Minshew. I like Minshew better, but he is probably going to be a bit pricier than Darnold. I also think Darnold would be a really good mentor for a new rookie QB and can start a few games if needed. Let’s do Darnold, and according to PFF he only needs a 1-year 4.75m contract. Easy enough, and has no long-term commitments past this year.
Now we can move to the big fish. I am putting all my eggs in the Christian Wilkins basket if I am the Vikings. Do whatever you can to get him (within reason) to help add talent on that D Line. He obviously fits great with Flores system considering he was drafted by Flores originally. Him and Phillips make a pretty good 1-2 punch on the line in both the run game and pass rush. PFF is showing a 4-year 100m deal, which is def a bit pricey, but considering just how good Wilkins is, I am all for it. PFF says 67.5m guaranteed, so we will work from those numbers to fit in with other contracts. I am going to keep the cap hit in 2024 fairly normal so I don’t spread too much money into future years. I give him a 4-year 100m deal with 65m in guarantees of which 50m is fully guaranteed in the first 2 years. I am adding a void year at the end to help spread caps out a bit. This gives us 15, 20, 30, and 30m cap hits the next 4 years. The first 2 years are fully guaranteed, but if they cut Wilkins before his bonus is paid in 2026, it would leave 15m in dead cap, but save 15m against the cap. Can also restructure that 10m bonus in 2026 to save 6.67m and add just 3.33m to 2027 and 2028.
After these two moves, we still have 32m in total cap space, minus the 10m we are setting aside for rookies and the season. Still plenty of room for a couple FAs. We need to decide our plan at EDGE now. Looking at cap space, and just how expensive Wilkins is, we are going to move on from Hunter. I have a couple cheaper options we can add to give us some help on the EDGE, and we will put a focus on it in the draft.
A target that I like his mix of age and production is Jonathan Greenard from Houston. He is only 26 (will be 27 in May), and had 12.5 sacks this past year with 53 pressures (12% pressure rate on pure pass rush snaps). He is a solid run defender as well, and according to PFF should command a little less than 20m per year on a new contract. It is a slight risk with only 1 year of double-digit sacks, but in 32 starts (48 total games played) he has 23 sacks and 97 pressures. PFF projects a 4-year 72m deal with 42.5m in guarantees. Let’s do a 15m signing bonus, with 10m salaries this year and next, and a 5m bonus next year. That gives us 40m in the first 2 years with all of it practically guaranteed. We then can add 2 years at 15m each and a 1m roster bonus each year to get us to the 4-year 72m deal. His cap hit is 13.75m this year, and then 19-20m each of the final 3 years of the deal. As with Wilkins, you could convert the 5m bonus to a signing bonus next year and save 3.3m in cap space that you spread to 2026 and 2027.
After this we are sitting with about 19m in total space, 9-10m in usable space. I want to circle back to the OL and see if there is a guard I can sign and keep the cap hit low enough this year, even if I have to backload the contract with guarantees. The big options are Dotson, Hunt, and Zeitler. Second tier options are bringing back Risner, or going for a Jon Runyan from Green Bay. Dotson or Hunt would be ideal, but they do command a 4-year 70m deal. With Dotson resigning in LA, and recently grumblings saying the team would love to have Risner back, let’s stick with him and save that cap space for more depth. PFF Projects a 3-year 16.5m deal for Risner with 10m guaranteed. That is pretty easy to fit in the space we have. I am going to do a 3m signing bonus, 3m fully guaranteed salary in 2024, with 4 and 5m salaries in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Add in a 1m roster bonus for 2025 and 2026 gives us a 3-yr 17m deal. I also guarantee 2m of his salary in 2025 to bring our total guarantees up to 10m. Keeps his cap hits at just 4, 6, and 7m the next 3 years. Can cut him next year and save 2m in cap space, or in 2026 to save 6m.
We still have around 6-7m in usable space for the team. I have 2 options I am considering. First, would be signing another younger cheaper EDGE to continue to fill out our DL depth. Second, a vet CB to add to that room and help solidify it. I am going to go back to what I did in the first round of these projections. I like bringing in a young EDGE for cheap and letting Flores mold him. Give me AJ Epenesa. PFF projects a 3-year 20m deal, and that can easily fit into the cap we have left. A fairly simple deal giving him a 6m signing bonus, 2.5m salaries in 2024 and 2025, both fully guaranteed, and a 7m add on salary in 2026. With a couple roster bonuses, it gives him a 3-year 20m deal with 11m fully guaranteed, and 13m in total guarantees. Cap hits of 4.5m and 5.5m in 2024 and 2025 respectively, and that is cheap even if he is only a depth rotational guy. Can cut him after 2 years and save 8m against the cap with only 2m dead.
We still have around 2-3m in space before we would dip into the reserves. I do think I want to add a CB to the team, even if they are a cheaper vet that might not be a starter for long. The one I have seen as an option for the team before is Sean Murphy-Bunting, and according to PFF, he will only command a 1-year 4m deal. Dips into a 10m reserves a hair, but that was an overestimate on savings needed anyways. Let’s give him the 1-year 4m deal with all 4m hitting the cap this year.
All of that done, we added a dominate DT, two good EDGE guys, brought back Risner, and added a vet CB for depth, all for ~45m in cap hits this year. They do account for 57m in cap hits in 2025 and 67m in 2026. However, there are some outs for a couple of them after the 2025 season. We have a couple million to still play with if something came up, but overall, I feel pretty good about our free agency. The only major free agent we have right now for 2025 is Darrisaw, but he will get his 5th year option for sure and that will hit around 19-20m against the cap without an extension next year. That would give the Vikings around 60m in cap space to work with next year and no major free agents or extensions to do. They could also rework an O’Neill deal to save significant money, cut Josh Oliver to save 5m, Bradbury for nearly 4m, and CJ Ham for 2.6m. This team will have plenty of cap space next year and the year after (100m+ as things sit after these extensions).
The only real glaring needs on the team right now are QB, and probably CB. Can always use more EDGE guys, but at this point it is more a depth thing. CB we might need 2 or even 3 starters in 2025 if Murphy walks and none of Booth, Blackmon and Evans develop. Good thing is we will have the cap space for it and can always draft one high this year and/or next.
DRAFT TIME
Now we can move on to everyone’s favorite part of the offseason. The NFL Draft! My clear and obvious goal is to get the QBOTF and get him early. For me there are 4 guys I will take in the top of the first round. No chance to get Williams, and more than likely no chance to get Maye, unless Chris Simms is to be believed and he falls into our laps at 11. Daniels almost assuredly goes top 3 as well, and I don’t see Washington or the Patriots trading out of their pick if Daniels is available. This mean McCarthy is the target, and we will see how the top of the draft goes to determine if we need to trade up for him and how far. I am also assuming Kirk went to ATL so they are not of concern to draft a QB. Let’s get to it.
Right off the bat, PFF is having the Patriots pass on Daniels at 3 for Malik Nabers. With this happening I am calling the Cardinals and Chargers and offering the house to go up and get him. Based on reporting this past week, the Cardinals will not trade out of 4 and will take Marvin Harrison Jr. This means we have to work with the Chargers to get their 5th pick and take Daniels. Looking at the more modern Rich Hill trade value chart, the 5th pick is worth 468 points, and the 11th pick is worth 358 points. This means we need to come up with 110 pts (mid-2nd rounder) to make this move, and maybe even a hair more considering LA will know we are coming up to get a QB. The 42nd overall pick is worth 142 points and would probably easily get it done, however, I really would like to keep that pick since we don’t have another pick until #109. My initial thought is giving them next year’s first round pick, but at face value that is way too expensive. So what I would love to see done by Kwesi and group is giving up #11, #130, and our 2025 1st, for #5 and #69 from LA. From the points side of things, it is 539 from LAC, and 576 from Minnesota if we count the 2025 1st as 200 points. That is a surplus of 37 points the Vikings are giving up (equivalent of the 98th overall pick), but you have to pay that QB tax. It also gives us 3 picks in the top 70 picks compared to just 2, and we are guaranteed a top 3 QB in the draft.
The Chargers take the deal and we are now cooking with gas! I run the card up for Jayden Daniels and we usher this team into the future and hopefully on the right path to a Super Bowl!
We get back on the clock at 42 overall, and we have 2 options staring right at me. Chop Robinson of Penn State and Darius Robinson of Mizzou. I know we put some money at the EDGE spot in FA, but you can never have too many pass rushers, and both would fit perfectly with Flores and this defense. I am torn between the 2 options. Chop is more of your typical EDGE that will be on the outside the whole time and go right after the QB. Robinson on the other hand has a lot more versatility and is a bit beefier in the upper 200s instead of mid 200s like Chop. At this point I have to go with what the board says and take the higher ranked player. We take Chop and our DL is looking pretty strong for this upcoming season.
Back on the clock at 69 thanks to our trade with the Chargers, and there is a player that I would run to the podium to take if this happened. WR is not the biggest need in the world, but if you can add the guy who just broke the 40-yard dash record to JJ and Addison, with Daniels and his cannon of an arm, watch out. I do have to admit T’Vondre Sweat the 6’4” 360lb DT from Texas is enticing. He is a big mountain of a man, and would fit right in there with Phillips and Wilkins outside of him to form a massive wall in the run game. Throw in Chop, Epenesa and Greenard on the outside and this DL will be dominate and a lot of fun to watch each Sunday. Either of these Texas players would be a great get in the 3rd round and add to this team in a big way. I thought I was going to take Worthy the second I saw he was available, but talking through it, Sweat is really starting to appeal to me. AHHHHHHHH!
This is exactly why I would never want to be an actual NFL GM. Having to make decisions like this would kill me. I cannot believe I am doing this, but I am passing on Worthy and taking Sweat. This might not be the most popular idea, but something about that giant wall on the DL really appeals to me. The Vikings have not had that since probably the Williams Wall or MAYBE the 2017 team. This also means the rest of this draft and most of next year can be spent on CB, WR, and OL.
Back on the clock at 109, we want to look at the OL and CB. The top player on the board is a CB in Max Melton out of Rutgers. I do have trade interest from the Rams at pick 153, which is a bit of a drop. However, I think we can get a future mid round pick from them for this drop. If I can get a 4th rounder from them in 2025, and then maybe a 6th or 7th this year, that is worth it to me with no one on the board screaming at me. I offer the 109 for 153, 217 and their 4th rounder in 2025. They take it!
Just like that we are at pick 145 and here is what the board looks like.
A couple DL that I like, but we have already gone way too heavy on that position with FA and our first few picks. Josh Newton would help with our CB depth, and seems to be a solid man coverage guy according to PFF. With my scouting knowledge being about 0 at this stage of the draft, I go with Newton and trust PFF knows something.
We are on the clock again at 153 and then 157. Here is what the board is looking like.
We could still use some LB depth even with Pace and Asamoah. Bertrand fits that bill. I take him at 153. Then at 157 the first player to catch my eye is Drake Nugent the C out of Michigan. Adding depth and competition for Bradbury is not a bad thing in my book. A 3-year starter for an NFL head coach is the type of risk I am willing to take at 157. He is ours.
Back up at 166, no WRs in the top 10 of the board, but there are a couple RBs. I think Chandler can be the bell cow back for the team in 2024, but some depth behind him would not be a bad idea. Dillon Johnson out of Washington is sitting there. According to PFF he isn’t an elite athlete at the position, but is a solid pass protector and pass catcher. That would be a good compliment to Chandler who has his woes on 3rd down. Let’s do it.
At pick 179 I get trade interest from the Patriots to trade back 3 spots to 182. They only have pick 229 left beyond that so I see if they will give me their final 2 picks for 179. They take it and we are back on the clock 3 picks later. A CB is available I have see taken much higher in other drafts so we take him here. Kamal Hadden come on down you are the next Minnesota Viking.
For the final 3 picks of our draft we have 217, 227 and 229. I have no idea who is who and who will be good at this stage of the draft. I am just going to stick to positional needs and the board to take the players. At 217 Tanor Bortolini a C (has played all over the OL in college) is the pick. A good swing iOL sounds good to me. At pick 227 Omar Brown a S from Nebraska is the top player available, and we all know how well this team has drafted that position the last 2 years so let’s grab another one. Finally, our last pick of the 2024 draft at #229 overall. I can’t do a draft like this and not take at least 1 Iowa guy. Ryan Wright had a rough year punting in 2023, so bring on Tory Taylor and the leg from down under.
Whew, what a draft. 11 players drafted including our QBOTF and a couple studs on the DL. PFF likes the draft overall despite thinking 5 is a reach for Daniels and taking a center in the 5th and punter in the 7th is bad business. If this all goes well this draft could turn the teams fortunes around in 1 year. Your DL is now a huge strength, and Daniels paired up with JJ, TJ and Addison could be magic on the field. I am not joking when I say I have no idea which side of the ball would be more exciting to watch on Sundays. Flores with all of these chess pieces on the DL will be a lot of fun to watch, and KOC designing up planned QB runs to setup huge play action shots to JJ and Addison has me ready for September!
WRAP UP
Overall, this would be a big offseason for the Vikings and has the ingredients to be franchise altering. I have no idea if Daniels will pan out, but if he does this offense and team are set up for years. Add in the ~40m in cap space next year and 100m+ in 2026 and the team is in a much healthier spot than they were just 2 years ago. Obviously not all of these draft picks and free agents will work out like we hope, but if just a few of them do we will be doing just fine. Let me know where I royally screwed up, or what you love below. That is truthfully my favorite part of these exercises is the varying opinions they bring out in people. We are nearly there! Buckle up and enjoy the FA ride. TF
STARTING CAP
To start with, the team has just over 37m in cap space after letting Kirk walk. We are also planning to let Davenport leave since he didn’t do anything anyways. This is not an insignificant number for the team. Considering they were 20m+ over the cap this time last year, having nearly 40m to spend is huge. The team is also sitting in a good spot for next year with a projected 160m in cap space assuming the cap grows to 280m next year. That is more than enough for the JJ extension, Darrisaw 5th year option/extension, and space for a couple big FA cap hits, while still leaving room for some FA work next year. Just like that this team goes from perennially tight against the cap to being one of the bigger cap space teams in the league (13th this offseason & projected top 5 right now for next year).
CUTS
First, let’s go through the basic cuts we all see happening. Dean Lowry is gone. Wasn’t good at all, and can save just over 2m in cap space by cutting him. The only other obvious one is Nick Mullens for me. He is a solid backup, but if we are truly going to draft a QB, we need more of a legit bridge guy that can teach the rookie and maybe even start the first few games of the year. I don’t see KOC wanting Mullens as that guy, and they won’t keep him and Hall with the new bridge QB and rookie. It’s a nice bonus that it saves nearly 1.9m in cap space cutting him.
This leaves us with just over 41m in cap space to use for extensions and new free agents. I am going to set aside 5m for the rookie class, and another 5m that they will keep in reserve for the season. It might be a little more or less than this for each of those things, but 10m is a nice round number so we will go with it. This puts us at 31m in usable space for the offseason. HERE WE GO!
RESTRUCTURES
There is really only 1 restructure I am considering, and that is Harrison Smith. This all comes down to what Harry wants. If he wants to ring chase, you let him do that. You can cut him and save 11.384m right away. You get the same savings if he retires, but I just don’t see him walking away yet. I am going into this thinking he will want to stay in Minnesota 1 more year. With that plan, lets rework his current deal to give him one last go as a Viking. Last year he redid his contract for a year to pay him $8m for 1 year. This deal will be for a bit less than that, but still let him make some money. I am going to convert his 2025 year to a void year, convert 4m of his nearly 15m salary this year to a signing bonus, then give him a 1.5m salary fully guaranteed. This means Harry gets a 1-year 5.5m fully guaranteed deal. This brings his cap hit down to just over 7.4m and saves 11m+ this year. It also lowers his cap hit from 22m in 2025 to just 6m (all of it dead money). This gives us 50m+ in cap space for extensions and free agents. Not a bad spot to be in.
EXTENSIONS
Let’s get a couple of the obvious extensions out of the way. First, I am bringing back Brandon Powell on a 1-year 1.5m deal. I’d be shocked if something like this doesn’t happen. From there, I want to extend Phillips to both lower his cap hit this year a little, but also keep him here for a couple years since he is a solid DT. He signed a 3-year 19.5m deal back in 2022 with the Vikings (6.5m AAV). This go around let’s give him a 2-year extension for 14.5m to give him a 3-year 21m deal with 2024 fully guaranteed and 2025 partially guaranteed at signing. Does give him a fairly substantial 9.667m cap hit in 2026, but he can be cut at that time to save 7.5m in cap space. That is what I would anticipate happening.
Next up, I want to get Cam Bynum locked up before he even sniffs FA next year. He is a pretty good safety, and thankfully isn’t so good he will command one of these mega deals at safety. It is a position I do not want to spend a crazy amount on. I view safety a lot like RB in there are always replacements available for decently cheap. That being said, it won’t be the same $4m AAV that Metellus took last year to keep Bynum. I think we are closer to the 7-8m AAV range for him. With that, let’s give him a 3-year 22.5m extension, tying him to the team through 2027. This puts him tied for 15th with Marcus Maye and Vonn Bell in AAV. That feels about right, and they both were 22.5m total value deals, with 13-14.5m in guarantees. This locks up Bynum and Metellus the next 2 years, and gets the safety cap spending under control (barely over 10m in 2025 if you exclude the Harry dead cap). The Vikings have been top 7 spenders at safety in 4 of the last 6 seasons, with the other 2 years still being in the top half of the league.
Finally, we have reached the big one. We need to get the JJ extension done. He will be the highest paid non-QB in league history, and he will have earned every dollar of it. The thing I am starting to buy into though is this will not be a 5-year extension. At best it will be 4 years, but I lean towards a 3-year extension that in effect is a 4-year total deal keeping him here through 2027. With that parameter set, let’s look at the Bosa deal to determine the AAV and guarantees we need to surpass. Bosa got a 5-year 170m deal (34m AAV) with 122.5m in total guarantees, of which 88m was fully guaranteed. That means 72% is guaranteed, and 52% fully guaranteed. We know we need to hit 35m in AAV, and it will be a 3-year extension. This gives us a total contract value of 105m, 72% guaranteed would be 75.6m, and 52% fully guaranteed puts us at just shy of 55m.
Bosa got a 50m signing bonus, so let’s do the same for JJ, however, 10m of that will be converted from his nearly 20m salary this year. This leaves us needing another 15m in full guarantees (40m from signing bonus) and 35m in all guarantees. Let’s do a 15m salary in 2025 and make it fully guaranteed at signing. That gives us our full guarantee number, and we will add a bit more shortly. Total value now is 55m leaving us 50m in salaries and bonus in 2026 and 2027. Let’s do a 20m salary in 2026 and 2027. Then we will add a 5m roster bonus to each season. That gives us our 3-year 105m extension. We are sitting with 65m in total guarantees, so we need to go back and add a bit more. Based on what I have read and heard, the sticking point so far is guarantees in year 2 of the extension. Let’s solve that issue and give JJ that entire 20m salary in 2026 guaranteed at signing. This obviously pushes his full guarantees through the roof, but it does make things simple, and do we really anticipate JJ retiring or being bad enough to cut in just 2 years that it would be a problem? I sure don’t. Plus, a guaranteed salary does not prevent a trade, it does not get added to the trading teams cap at all, unless he is cut. This brings JJ’s total extension up to a 3-year 105m deal, with 85m in total guarantees, 75m of them fully guaranteed at signing, and an average annual value of 35m. All of this to make him the highest paid non-QB by AAV in the league. It also gives him 10m more in total guarantees than any other WR contract, and 23m more in full guarantees. His 4-year deal is still 125m total and a 31.25m AAV. That AAV would still be the highest for any WR ever, and right on par with Bosa’s 31.5m AAV over the 6-years of his full deal.
Gives JJ some higher cap hits in 2026 and 2027, but if we are going down the rookie QB path, we have the room for it, and I have no issues paying the best player at his position that kind of money. The best part of all of these extensions, in total the 4 extensions will add just .674m to the cap in 2024. NOW, they do add just over 40m in cap hits to the 2025 cap and 54 in 2026, but as I said at the beginning, this team had 160m in projected cap space next year. All of the cuts, restructures, and extensions still leaves them with over 115m in cap space right now for 2025, and 173m in 2026. They are doing just fine. The one glaring extension candidate I haven’t addressed yet is Danielle Hunter. I personally would bring him back if you can get him at 3-years 60-65m, however, I can easily see the team saying we are doing this rebuild thing by not bring back Kirk, we are also moving on from Hunter at his age and cap hits. For now, I am going to hold off on resigning him, however, if after I work through the FAs I have room to bring him back, I will.
FREE AGENTS
There are a couple specific positions I am looking for in free agency. The first and most important is the D Line. If Hunter walks or not, this team needs at least 1 solid EDGE and 1 pass rushing DT. I also want to look into upgrades along the iOL at both guard spots. I don’t think Ingram is BAD, but if I can upgrade his spot or the LG from Risner, I will. Finally, if there is an option that fits financially at CB I will do it. A WR3/4 wouldn’t hurt, a backup LB, and then a solid RB depth add are all things I will consider as well.
First up, let’s get our bridge QB for this year so we know we have someone that can lead the team if all else fails. The big 2 options are Sam Darnold and Gardner Minshew. I like Minshew better, but he is probably going to be a bit pricier than Darnold. I also think Darnold would be a really good mentor for a new rookie QB and can start a few games if needed. Let’s do Darnold, and according to PFF he only needs a 1-year 4.75m contract. Easy enough, and has no long-term commitments past this year.
Now we can move to the big fish. I am putting all my eggs in the Christian Wilkins basket if I am the Vikings. Do whatever you can to get him (within reason) to help add talent on that D Line. He obviously fits great with Flores system considering he was drafted by Flores originally. Him and Phillips make a pretty good 1-2 punch on the line in both the run game and pass rush. PFF is showing a 4-year 100m deal, which is def a bit pricey, but considering just how good Wilkins is, I am all for it. PFF says 67.5m guaranteed, so we will work from those numbers to fit in with other contracts. I am going to keep the cap hit in 2024 fairly normal so I don’t spread too much money into future years. I give him a 4-year 100m deal with 65m in guarantees of which 50m is fully guaranteed in the first 2 years. I am adding a void year at the end to help spread caps out a bit. This gives us 15, 20, 30, and 30m cap hits the next 4 years. The first 2 years are fully guaranteed, but if they cut Wilkins before his bonus is paid in 2026, it would leave 15m in dead cap, but save 15m against the cap. Can also restructure that 10m bonus in 2026 to save 6.67m and add just 3.33m to 2027 and 2028.
After these two moves, we still have 32m in total cap space, minus the 10m we are setting aside for rookies and the season. Still plenty of room for a couple FAs. We need to decide our plan at EDGE now. Looking at cap space, and just how expensive Wilkins is, we are going to move on from Hunter. I have a couple cheaper options we can add to give us some help on the EDGE, and we will put a focus on it in the draft.
A target that I like his mix of age and production is Jonathan Greenard from Houston. He is only 26 (will be 27 in May), and had 12.5 sacks this past year with 53 pressures (12% pressure rate on pure pass rush snaps). He is a solid run defender as well, and according to PFF should command a little less than 20m per year on a new contract. It is a slight risk with only 1 year of double-digit sacks, but in 32 starts (48 total games played) he has 23 sacks and 97 pressures. PFF projects a 4-year 72m deal with 42.5m in guarantees. Let’s do a 15m signing bonus, with 10m salaries this year and next, and a 5m bonus next year. That gives us 40m in the first 2 years with all of it practically guaranteed. We then can add 2 years at 15m each and a 1m roster bonus each year to get us to the 4-year 72m deal. His cap hit is 13.75m this year, and then 19-20m each of the final 3 years of the deal. As with Wilkins, you could convert the 5m bonus to a signing bonus next year and save 3.3m in cap space that you spread to 2026 and 2027.
After this we are sitting with about 19m in total space, 9-10m in usable space. I want to circle back to the OL and see if there is a guard I can sign and keep the cap hit low enough this year, even if I have to backload the contract with guarantees. The big options are Dotson, Hunt, and Zeitler. Second tier options are bringing back Risner, or going for a Jon Runyan from Green Bay. Dotson or Hunt would be ideal, but they do command a 4-year 70m deal. With Dotson resigning in LA, and recently grumblings saying the team would love to have Risner back, let’s stick with him and save that cap space for more depth. PFF Projects a 3-year 16.5m deal for Risner with 10m guaranteed. That is pretty easy to fit in the space we have. I am going to do a 3m signing bonus, 3m fully guaranteed salary in 2024, with 4 and 5m salaries in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Add in a 1m roster bonus for 2025 and 2026 gives us a 3-yr 17m deal. I also guarantee 2m of his salary in 2025 to bring our total guarantees up to 10m. Keeps his cap hits at just 4, 6, and 7m the next 3 years. Can cut him next year and save 2m in cap space, or in 2026 to save 6m.
We still have around 6-7m in usable space for the team. I have 2 options I am considering. First, would be signing another younger cheaper EDGE to continue to fill out our DL depth. Second, a vet CB to add to that room and help solidify it. I am going to go back to what I did in the first round of these projections. I like bringing in a young EDGE for cheap and letting Flores mold him. Give me AJ Epenesa. PFF projects a 3-year 20m deal, and that can easily fit into the cap we have left. A fairly simple deal giving him a 6m signing bonus, 2.5m salaries in 2024 and 2025, both fully guaranteed, and a 7m add on salary in 2026. With a couple roster bonuses, it gives him a 3-year 20m deal with 11m fully guaranteed, and 13m in total guarantees. Cap hits of 4.5m and 5.5m in 2024 and 2025 respectively, and that is cheap even if he is only a depth rotational guy. Can cut him after 2 years and save 8m against the cap with only 2m dead.
We still have around 2-3m in space before we would dip into the reserves. I do think I want to add a CB to the team, even if they are a cheaper vet that might not be a starter for long. The one I have seen as an option for the team before is Sean Murphy-Bunting, and according to PFF, he will only command a 1-year 4m deal. Dips into a 10m reserves a hair, but that was an overestimate on savings needed anyways. Let’s give him the 1-year 4m deal with all 4m hitting the cap this year.
All of that done, we added a dominate DT, two good EDGE guys, brought back Risner, and added a vet CB for depth, all for ~45m in cap hits this year. They do account for 57m in cap hits in 2025 and 67m in 2026. However, there are some outs for a couple of them after the 2025 season. We have a couple million to still play with if something came up, but overall, I feel pretty good about our free agency. The only major free agent we have right now for 2025 is Darrisaw, but he will get his 5th year option for sure and that will hit around 19-20m against the cap without an extension next year. That would give the Vikings around 60m in cap space to work with next year and no major free agents or extensions to do. They could also rework an O’Neill deal to save significant money, cut Josh Oliver to save 5m, Bradbury for nearly 4m, and CJ Ham for 2.6m. This team will have plenty of cap space next year and the year after (100m+ as things sit after these extensions).
The only real glaring needs on the team right now are QB, and probably CB. Can always use more EDGE guys, but at this point it is more a depth thing. CB we might need 2 or even 3 starters in 2025 if Murphy walks and none of Booth, Blackmon and Evans develop. Good thing is we will have the cap space for it and can always draft one high this year and/or next.
DRAFT TIME
Now we can move on to everyone’s favorite part of the offseason. The NFL Draft! My clear and obvious goal is to get the QBOTF and get him early. For me there are 4 guys I will take in the top of the first round. No chance to get Williams, and more than likely no chance to get Maye, unless Chris Simms is to be believed and he falls into our laps at 11. Daniels almost assuredly goes top 3 as well, and I don’t see Washington or the Patriots trading out of their pick if Daniels is available. This mean McCarthy is the target, and we will see how the top of the draft goes to determine if we need to trade up for him and how far. I am also assuming Kirk went to ATL so they are not of concern to draft a QB. Let’s get to it.
Right off the bat, PFF is having the Patriots pass on Daniels at 3 for Malik Nabers. With this happening I am calling the Cardinals and Chargers and offering the house to go up and get him. Based on reporting this past week, the Cardinals will not trade out of 4 and will take Marvin Harrison Jr. This means we have to work with the Chargers to get their 5th pick and take Daniels. Looking at the more modern Rich Hill trade value chart, the 5th pick is worth 468 points, and the 11th pick is worth 358 points. This means we need to come up with 110 pts (mid-2nd rounder) to make this move, and maybe even a hair more considering LA will know we are coming up to get a QB. The 42nd overall pick is worth 142 points and would probably easily get it done, however, I really would like to keep that pick since we don’t have another pick until #109. My initial thought is giving them next year’s first round pick, but at face value that is way too expensive. So what I would love to see done by Kwesi and group is giving up #11, #130, and our 2025 1st, for #5 and #69 from LA. From the points side of things, it is 539 from LAC, and 576 from Minnesota if we count the 2025 1st as 200 points. That is a surplus of 37 points the Vikings are giving up (equivalent of the 98th overall pick), but you have to pay that QB tax. It also gives us 3 picks in the top 70 picks compared to just 2, and we are guaranteed a top 3 QB in the draft.
The Chargers take the deal and we are now cooking with gas! I run the card up for Jayden Daniels and we usher this team into the future and hopefully on the right path to a Super Bowl!
We get back on the clock at 42 overall, and we have 2 options staring right at me. Chop Robinson of Penn State and Darius Robinson of Mizzou. I know we put some money at the EDGE spot in FA, but you can never have too many pass rushers, and both would fit perfectly with Flores and this defense. I am torn between the 2 options. Chop is more of your typical EDGE that will be on the outside the whole time and go right after the QB. Robinson on the other hand has a lot more versatility and is a bit beefier in the upper 200s instead of mid 200s like Chop. At this point I have to go with what the board says and take the higher ranked player. We take Chop and our DL is looking pretty strong for this upcoming season.
Back on the clock at 69 thanks to our trade with the Chargers, and there is a player that I would run to the podium to take if this happened. WR is not the biggest need in the world, but if you can add the guy who just broke the 40-yard dash record to JJ and Addison, with Daniels and his cannon of an arm, watch out. I do have to admit T’Vondre Sweat the 6’4” 360lb DT from Texas is enticing. He is a big mountain of a man, and would fit right in there with Phillips and Wilkins outside of him to form a massive wall in the run game. Throw in Chop, Epenesa and Greenard on the outside and this DL will be dominate and a lot of fun to watch each Sunday. Either of these Texas players would be a great get in the 3rd round and add to this team in a big way. I thought I was going to take Worthy the second I saw he was available, but talking through it, Sweat is really starting to appeal to me. AHHHHHHHH!
This is exactly why I would never want to be an actual NFL GM. Having to make decisions like this would kill me. I cannot believe I am doing this, but I am passing on Worthy and taking Sweat. This might not be the most popular idea, but something about that giant wall on the DL really appeals to me. The Vikings have not had that since probably the Williams Wall or MAYBE the 2017 team. This also means the rest of this draft and most of next year can be spent on CB, WR, and OL.
Back on the clock at 109, we want to look at the OL and CB. The top player on the board is a CB in Max Melton out of Rutgers. I do have trade interest from the Rams at pick 153, which is a bit of a drop. However, I think we can get a future mid round pick from them for this drop. If I can get a 4th rounder from them in 2025, and then maybe a 6th or 7th this year, that is worth it to me with no one on the board screaming at me. I offer the 109 for 153, 217 and their 4th rounder in 2025. They take it!
Just like that we are at pick 145 and here is what the board looks like.
A couple DL that I like, but we have already gone way too heavy on that position with FA and our first few picks. Josh Newton would help with our CB depth, and seems to be a solid man coverage guy according to PFF. With my scouting knowledge being about 0 at this stage of the draft, I go with Newton and trust PFF knows something.
We are on the clock again at 153 and then 157. Here is what the board is looking like.
We could still use some LB depth even with Pace and Asamoah. Bertrand fits that bill. I take him at 153. Then at 157 the first player to catch my eye is Drake Nugent the C out of Michigan. Adding depth and competition for Bradbury is not a bad thing in my book. A 3-year starter for an NFL head coach is the type of risk I am willing to take at 157. He is ours.
Back up at 166, no WRs in the top 10 of the board, but there are a couple RBs. I think Chandler can be the bell cow back for the team in 2024, but some depth behind him would not be a bad idea. Dillon Johnson out of Washington is sitting there. According to PFF he isn’t an elite athlete at the position, but is a solid pass protector and pass catcher. That would be a good compliment to Chandler who has his woes on 3rd down. Let’s do it.
At pick 179 I get trade interest from the Patriots to trade back 3 spots to 182. They only have pick 229 left beyond that so I see if they will give me their final 2 picks for 179. They take it and we are back on the clock 3 picks later. A CB is available I have see taken much higher in other drafts so we take him here. Kamal Hadden come on down you are the next Minnesota Viking.
For the final 3 picks of our draft we have 217, 227 and 229. I have no idea who is who and who will be good at this stage of the draft. I am just going to stick to positional needs and the board to take the players. At 217 Tanor Bortolini a C (has played all over the OL in college) is the pick. A good swing iOL sounds good to me. At pick 227 Omar Brown a S from Nebraska is the top player available, and we all know how well this team has drafted that position the last 2 years so let’s grab another one. Finally, our last pick of the 2024 draft at #229 overall. I can’t do a draft like this and not take at least 1 Iowa guy. Ryan Wright had a rough year punting in 2023, so bring on Tory Taylor and the leg from down under.
Whew, what a draft. 11 players drafted including our QBOTF and a couple studs on the DL. PFF likes the draft overall despite thinking 5 is a reach for Daniels and taking a center in the 5th and punter in the 7th is bad business. If this all goes well this draft could turn the teams fortunes around in 1 year. Your DL is now a huge strength, and Daniels paired up with JJ, TJ and Addison could be magic on the field. I am not joking when I say I have no idea which side of the ball would be more exciting to watch on Sundays. Flores with all of these chess pieces on the DL will be a lot of fun to watch, and KOC designing up planned QB runs to setup huge play action shots to JJ and Addison has me ready for September!
WRAP UP
Overall, this would be a big offseason for the Vikings and has the ingredients to be franchise altering. I have no idea if Daniels will pan out, but if he does this offense and team are set up for years. Add in the ~40m in cap space next year and 100m+ in 2026 and the team is in a much healthier spot than they were just 2 years ago. Obviously not all of these draft picks and free agents will work out like we hope, but if just a few of them do we will be doing just fine. Let me know where I royally screwed up, or what you love below. That is truthfully my favorite part of these exercises is the varying opinions they bring out in people. We are nearly there! Buckle up and enjoy the FA ride. TF
... and neither is this Chris guy.