What will it cost to move up to # 3
Feb 26, 2024 15:38:47 GMT -6
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Uncle, mngopher35, and 1 more like this
Post by ukvikings on Feb 26, 2024 15:38:47 GMT -6
When determining the value of significant trades into the Top 10 involving future draft capital, it's always best to look at past precedent because that is often the starting point for GM's.
In this instance, the best comparison in recent history is probably San Francisco's trade from #12 to #3 in 2021 when they ultimately selected Trey Lance. That trade occurred well before the 2021 Draft, on 3/26/21:
SF received:
2021 Pick #3 (Rd 1)
MIA received:
2021 Pick #12 (Rd 1)
2022 1st Rd pick (ended up being #29)
2022 3rd Rd pick (ended up being #102 - comp pick)
2023 1st Rd pick (ended up being #29)
So it was two future 1st Rd picks and a 3rd Rd pick the following year in exchange for the #3 overall pick and one of the top QB's in the 2021 Draft class.
NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah had this to say a few days ago about the cost for the Vikings trading to that #3 spot (link):
If you are looking at — if they wanted to trade up, if we put them into that formula we were talking about to get up to number three, you’re talking about the 11th pick, the first round pick in ’25 and a first round pick in ’26. That would be the cost for them to get up to number 3 if you are the Minnesota Vikings if they wanted to get one of the top three guys.
Knowing that the likely compensation would be not having a 1st Rd pick in 2025 and 2026, would you move up to #3 overall for a chance at one of the top QB's in the 2024 Draft - likely either Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels?
I would try to fill in with some second rounders and third rounders instead of that third first rounder if possible. But if I’m Kwesi I probably pull the trigger on the 3 firsts.
Here are my reasons:
-I think it’s likely you have to trade up to even get QB4 this year. While the cost would obviously be less than going to 3, it would still involve premium assets.
-I’m of the opinion Kwesi has to obtain a QBOTF this off-season. You can’t sign a Brissett type QB with no QBOTF. We would more or less essentially be the Falcons from last year. An awful team to be a fan of.
-let’s value the 3 firsts with comparables this year. Pick 11, let’s say we pick 9th next year, and say 17 in year 3. This year if you gave me pick 9, 11, and 17- Dallas Turner, Byron Murphy, and Quinyon Mitchell. Would I rather have a conceivable QBOTF or those 3 guys? I take the shot at QBOTF but it’s close either way imo
-I would wait till after FA and Fields trade before making the trade. Not sure how the QB market looks a month from now nor do we know if these guys slip from bad interviews/pro days/combine/etc.