Positions of Need ranked by Positional Value and the Roster
Feb 22, 2024 17:58:28 GMT -6
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Post by FSUVike on Feb 22, 2024 17:58:28 GMT -6
This is my best guess on which roles will be targeted where in the Draft based on the current and projected state of the Roster and Positional Value of each role. Along with percentage chances they are targeted on each day of the Draft.
My ranking is:
1. QB
2. Edge
3. IDL
4. CB
5. IOL
6. RB
7. ILB
8. WR
9. TE
10. S
1. QB. Obvious high Round Pick. 75-80% chance of a 1st or 2nd unless Cousins returns. We all know the names by now.
2. Edge. Obvious high Round Pick even if Hunter stays & regardless of Wonnum returning. 75-80% chance of a 1st or 2nd even if Hunter returns. We know the 1st Round names. 2nd Round targets include Adisa Isaac, Chris Braswell, possibly Bralen Trice. Maybe Darius Robinson if we're really lucky.
I also think there's a 60-65% chance they double down with a Day 3 pick.
3. IDL. Potential high Round Pick. Does Minnesota spend a Day 1 or Day 2 Pick on the Interior if Kwesi signs a Tier 1 FA? Phillips plus Wilkins/Madubuike/Reader/Stewart along with Roy and what else? Bullard is a candidate to return for the veteran minimum. Tonga hardly played the last third of the season behind guys like Day and Smith. Those two could stay as PS guys but I think Tonga and Lynch are out.
So I think a 3rd if acquired would be realistic even if a big FA is acquired to add rotational depth and to compete with Roy. Maybe a 4th on more of a run stuffer if Minnesota gets interior pass rushing before the Draft.
If the Vikings don't make a splash I think the 2nd is very realistic. Kris Jenkins, Leonard Taylor, T'Vondre Sweat and Ruke Orhorhoro. Day 3 guys are Maason Smith, Mekhi Wingo, DeWayne Carter & Khristian Boyd.
Frankly, I don't see much from Day 3 that is obviously better than Roy unless one of Smith or Wingo stays healthy and reaches their potential, which neither did at LSU.
50-60% Day 1 or Day 2. 40-50% chance on Day 3. 30-35% chance they double dip.
4. CB. Does KAM get a Tier 2 or Tier 3 FA? Even if he doesn't I'm not sold on a CB on Day 1 at all. Maybe if a trade back resulted in missing all potential targets at QB and Edge AND Byron Murphy isn't available or they aren't that high on him. 25-30% chance for Day 1.
Day 2 is more interesting. Would they seriously look at TJ Tampa if he's sitting there @ #42? I'm not so sure they would. They clearly want to give Blackmon a shot to Start. And I'm assuming Murphy is back. So any prospect drafted is competing with Evans and Booth for rotational snaps. Flores didn't play a ton of traditional 3 CB looks, opting instead for 3 Safeties since he's got multiple guys that in theory can cover the Slot.
Even if they acquire a 3rd I put the chances at around 25%. Day 3 is a different story as I definitely think they look for competition for Evans/Booth in either the 4th or 5th given that they have two picks in each of those Rounds. 70-80% chance of a pick there. Look for my personal Draft crush Cam Hart if he's still there. Nehemiah Pritchett. Max Melton. Caelen Carson. Chau Smith-Wade. Khyree Jackson, like Hart, will likely test his way into Day 2. The NFL loves them their 6'2, 200 pound CBs
5. IOL. I have this position group 5th because literally the entire bench behind the Starters are FAs. And Risner is no slam dunk to resign. This will be interesting. Dalton is part of why the Vikings can't run the ball a lick. Do they make a splash with Dotson or Hunt and flip Ingram to LG? Do they grab Jonah Jackson from Detroit? He's not as good in Pass Pro as Risner but he's a mauler in the run game. And he was hurt last year, so Kwesi will love him.
But I seriously doubt every depth guy comes back. Quessenberry would be at the top of my list. Cheaper than Udo and arguably better as a Swing Tackle. Brendel too. Reed can walk. Schlottmann has improved and could stay.
Still, competition on the interior is needed. Both for Ingram and whomever is inked in FA. And Bradbury has an even easier out in his deal after '25. And has missed multiple games two years in a row now.
Day 1 is 0%. JPJ, Fataunu and Barton are the only IOL worth a 1st and the Vikings frankly have far more pressing needs unless Risner walks and Kwesi does nothing to replace him.
Day 2 starts to get interesting. Zach Frazier could replace Bradbury instantly and should be available at #42. Van Pran should be available in the 3rd if the Vikings get an extra pick in a trade down.
At Guard you have options as well. Bebe, Haynes, Puni. I think it's unlikely, though. 20-25% is the odds I give for IOL on Day 2.
Day 3 seems more likely to me. Beaux Limmer potentially at Center. Maybe Drake Nugent if the Vikings take McCarthy. Why not pair JJ with his collegiate Center? At OG Christian Mahogany is a possibility, though I think he goes in the 3rd. But Mason McCormick is an option. There are some OTs that won't have the measurables at the Combine that will need to kick inside. Like LaDarius Henderson from Michigan. There will be plenty others.
Overall I'd say 80-85% chance an Interior Offensive Linemen is taken on Day 3 if for no other reason than to restock the depth. And a 35-40% chance Kwesi double dips.
6. RB. This one is interesting. They completely whiffed on their 7th Rounder last year. Coller said last night that Mattison was strictly in an OZB scheme at BSU. I thought he was more of an IZB and Gap guy but I was wrong. No wonder he doesn't fit the scheme.
On that same podcast Brandon Thorn from Trench Warfare advised Matt that Minnesota should be more multiple in their run schemes as that has become a major trend around the League. So more Gap and not just Zone, be it Inside or Outside. That changed my thinking from just finding another bruiser to pair with Chandler, whom I believe is versatile enough for any scheme. I see having another versatile guy like Ty as more likely than a legit Thunder to pair with his Lightning.
Day 1 and Day 2 is 0% for me. Even if they acquire a 3rd. I think it's far more likely they get another veteran to pair with Ty or do the stupid thing and try Mattison again. If they did it would be in the 3rd for someone like Trey Benson, but I just don't see it.
Day 3 I'd peg at around 75-80%. More so with their 2 5ths or 2 6ths than either of the 4ths. Audric Estime, Ray Davis, Marshawn Loyd, etc. Not so sure they go with a smaller scatback ala Vidal or a pass catcher like Laube. A more rounded Back to be ready if the vet they pair with Chandler or Ty gets hurt is a better bet. But I do think with all the Day 3 Picks one gets selected.
7. ILB. This is 0% on Day 1 & Day 2. 0. For several reasons. Metellus functions as a hybrid Safety/Linebacker and he never comes off the field. Flores uses a lot of 1 ILB looks on obvious passing downs. Whether it's because he's got 6 DBs out there or an extra pass rusher.
But also because there are no true game changing ILBs in this Draft that could potentially fall to Day 2 because of positional value. None that would justify the pick.
I do see Kwesi looking for a developmental kid on Day 3. Like 75-80% in the 5th or 6th. Even if they bring Hicks back at near the veteran minimum. There are a lot of run stuffing ILBs that are over 235 lbs that can be had in 5th & 6th. None of them are likely to have the same knack for blitzing that Hicks has, but that can be developed while the prospect plays Special Teams.
Names to watch are Tommy Eichenberg, Tevin Wallace, Tyrice Knight, JD Bertrand, Ty'Ron Hopper, Marist Liufau and Edefuan Ulofoshio.
8. WR. I can see this getting completely ignored. I really can. Why? I see Kevin wanting to keep Powell and being fine with letting Osborn walk. But he's not going to feel comfortable with Nailor being available and capable of coming in and producing if someone gets hurt.
That's where I see WR being a target in FA. Like a Westbrook-Ikhine or Kendrick Bourne or Mecole Hardman. Powell is really more of a WR4, but that's OK since Hock will soak up a ton of targets once he returns. Having another WR4 type, especially ones who are willing blockers like Bourne or MVS makes too much sense and shouldn't cost much at all.
It's 0% on Day 1 and 5% on Day 2 only because I don't trust Kevin.
But I do think they potentially look to Day 3 for someone to challenge for Nailor's spot. Or at the very least challenge the Trishton Jackson's of the world. I'm thinking in the 6th. Someone like De'Corian Clark or Isaiah Williams. Maybe Luke McCaffrey in the 5th.
I can easily see Minnesota double and triple dipping on the Lines and skipping WR altogether so I'm going to say 30-40%.
9. TE. 0% on Day 1 & 2. But don't be surprised by a Day 3 selection. Mundt likely returns and gets the majority of Hock's targets. O'Connell will talk big again about Oliver and proceed to call one chip and release target for him per game. But while I do think they like Muse, they need less of a project in case Mundt goes down. And it doesn't make a ton of sense to Roster a veteran just until TJ comes back.
On Day 3 they could target a kid like Dallin Holker in the late 5th or 6th. Or Theo Jackson with the early 5th if he's still there. Definitely the local product Brevyn Spann-Ford in the late 5th or possibly the 6th. These kids offer more as pass catchers than blockers and that's OK because that is needed. I suspect TJ misses at least 6 games. You can't have all your eggs in the Johnny Mundt basket.
Another funky option is Jaheim Bell. He's too small to be an in-line TE. But he could be an H-Back/Fullback/TE hybrid that can even line up outside at times. FSU deployed him all over the field. And he had success as a Swiss Army Knife at the Senior Bowl. He's Combine measurables will kill his Draft stock, IMO. Might be worth a look in the 6th.
I actually go 60-65% for a Day 3 pick here.
10. S. 0% on Days 1 & 2. Potentially even Day 3. Even if Smith retires there's still Bynum, Metellus, Jackson and Ward. And technically Cine. I can see adding a Special Teams kid with some upside in the 7th. Maybe with the second of the two 6th Rounders. Kenny Logan or Dadrion Taylor-Demerson are possibilities. I personally like Kitan Oladapo but I think he goes in the 5th if he tests well.
What are your thoughts? Which positions do you think are higher potential targets in the Draft and why? Or throw some names out there of prospects I didn't mention. I've done 300 mocks and watched dozens of hours of reviews, but I would never claim to know all the prospects.
My ranking is:
1. QB
2. Edge
3. IDL
4. CB
5. IOL
6. RB
7. ILB
8. WR
9. TE
10. S
1. QB. Obvious high Round Pick. 75-80% chance of a 1st or 2nd unless Cousins returns. We all know the names by now.
2. Edge. Obvious high Round Pick even if Hunter stays & regardless of Wonnum returning. 75-80% chance of a 1st or 2nd even if Hunter returns. We know the 1st Round names. 2nd Round targets include Adisa Isaac, Chris Braswell, possibly Bralen Trice. Maybe Darius Robinson if we're really lucky.
I also think there's a 60-65% chance they double down with a Day 3 pick.
3. IDL. Potential high Round Pick. Does Minnesota spend a Day 1 or Day 2 Pick on the Interior if Kwesi signs a Tier 1 FA? Phillips plus Wilkins/Madubuike/Reader/Stewart along with Roy and what else? Bullard is a candidate to return for the veteran minimum. Tonga hardly played the last third of the season behind guys like Day and Smith. Those two could stay as PS guys but I think Tonga and Lynch are out.
So I think a 3rd if acquired would be realistic even if a big FA is acquired to add rotational depth and to compete with Roy. Maybe a 4th on more of a run stuffer if Minnesota gets interior pass rushing before the Draft.
If the Vikings don't make a splash I think the 2nd is very realistic. Kris Jenkins, Leonard Taylor, T'Vondre Sweat and Ruke Orhorhoro. Day 3 guys are Maason Smith, Mekhi Wingo, DeWayne Carter & Khristian Boyd.
Frankly, I don't see much from Day 3 that is obviously better than Roy unless one of Smith or Wingo stays healthy and reaches their potential, which neither did at LSU.
50-60% Day 1 or Day 2. 40-50% chance on Day 3. 30-35% chance they double dip.
4. CB. Does KAM get a Tier 2 or Tier 3 FA? Even if he doesn't I'm not sold on a CB on Day 1 at all. Maybe if a trade back resulted in missing all potential targets at QB and Edge AND Byron Murphy isn't available or they aren't that high on him. 25-30% chance for Day 1.
Day 2 is more interesting. Would they seriously look at TJ Tampa if he's sitting there @ #42? I'm not so sure they would. They clearly want to give Blackmon a shot to Start. And I'm assuming Murphy is back. So any prospect drafted is competing with Evans and Booth for rotational snaps. Flores didn't play a ton of traditional 3 CB looks, opting instead for 3 Safeties since he's got multiple guys that in theory can cover the Slot.
Even if they acquire a 3rd I put the chances at around 25%. Day 3 is a different story as I definitely think they look for competition for Evans/Booth in either the 4th or 5th given that they have two picks in each of those Rounds. 70-80% chance of a pick there. Look for my personal Draft crush Cam Hart if he's still there. Nehemiah Pritchett. Max Melton. Caelen Carson. Chau Smith-Wade. Khyree Jackson, like Hart, will likely test his way into Day 2. The NFL loves them their 6'2, 200 pound CBs
5. IOL. I have this position group 5th because literally the entire bench behind the Starters are FAs. And Risner is no slam dunk to resign. This will be interesting. Dalton is part of why the Vikings can't run the ball a lick. Do they make a splash with Dotson or Hunt and flip Ingram to LG? Do they grab Jonah Jackson from Detroit? He's not as good in Pass Pro as Risner but he's a mauler in the run game. And he was hurt last year, so Kwesi will love him.
But I seriously doubt every depth guy comes back. Quessenberry would be at the top of my list. Cheaper than Udo and arguably better as a Swing Tackle. Brendel too. Reed can walk. Schlottmann has improved and could stay.
Still, competition on the interior is needed. Both for Ingram and whomever is inked in FA. And Bradbury has an even easier out in his deal after '25. And has missed multiple games two years in a row now.
Day 1 is 0%. JPJ, Fataunu and Barton are the only IOL worth a 1st and the Vikings frankly have far more pressing needs unless Risner walks and Kwesi does nothing to replace him.
Day 2 starts to get interesting. Zach Frazier could replace Bradbury instantly and should be available at #42. Van Pran should be available in the 3rd if the Vikings get an extra pick in a trade down.
At Guard you have options as well. Bebe, Haynes, Puni. I think it's unlikely, though. 20-25% is the odds I give for IOL on Day 2.
Day 3 seems more likely to me. Beaux Limmer potentially at Center. Maybe Drake Nugent if the Vikings take McCarthy. Why not pair JJ with his collegiate Center? At OG Christian Mahogany is a possibility, though I think he goes in the 3rd. But Mason McCormick is an option. There are some OTs that won't have the measurables at the Combine that will need to kick inside. Like LaDarius Henderson from Michigan. There will be plenty others.
Overall I'd say 80-85% chance an Interior Offensive Linemen is taken on Day 3 if for no other reason than to restock the depth. And a 35-40% chance Kwesi double dips.
6. RB. This one is interesting. They completely whiffed on their 7th Rounder last year. Coller said last night that Mattison was strictly in an OZB scheme at BSU. I thought he was more of an IZB and Gap guy but I was wrong. No wonder he doesn't fit the scheme.
On that same podcast Brandon Thorn from Trench Warfare advised Matt that Minnesota should be more multiple in their run schemes as that has become a major trend around the League. So more Gap and not just Zone, be it Inside or Outside. That changed my thinking from just finding another bruiser to pair with Chandler, whom I believe is versatile enough for any scheme. I see having another versatile guy like Ty as more likely than a legit Thunder to pair with his Lightning.
Day 1 and Day 2 is 0% for me. Even if they acquire a 3rd. I think it's far more likely they get another veteran to pair with Ty or do the stupid thing and try Mattison again. If they did it would be in the 3rd for someone like Trey Benson, but I just don't see it.
Day 3 I'd peg at around 75-80%. More so with their 2 5ths or 2 6ths than either of the 4ths. Audric Estime, Ray Davis, Marshawn Loyd, etc. Not so sure they go with a smaller scatback ala Vidal or a pass catcher like Laube. A more rounded Back to be ready if the vet they pair with Chandler or Ty gets hurt is a better bet. But I do think with all the Day 3 Picks one gets selected.
7. ILB. This is 0% on Day 1 & Day 2. 0. For several reasons. Metellus functions as a hybrid Safety/Linebacker and he never comes off the field. Flores uses a lot of 1 ILB looks on obvious passing downs. Whether it's because he's got 6 DBs out there or an extra pass rusher.
But also because there are no true game changing ILBs in this Draft that could potentially fall to Day 2 because of positional value. None that would justify the pick.
I do see Kwesi looking for a developmental kid on Day 3. Like 75-80% in the 5th or 6th. Even if they bring Hicks back at near the veteran minimum. There are a lot of run stuffing ILBs that are over 235 lbs that can be had in 5th & 6th. None of them are likely to have the same knack for blitzing that Hicks has, but that can be developed while the prospect plays Special Teams.
Names to watch are Tommy Eichenberg, Tevin Wallace, Tyrice Knight, JD Bertrand, Ty'Ron Hopper, Marist Liufau and Edefuan Ulofoshio.
8. WR. I can see this getting completely ignored. I really can. Why? I see Kevin wanting to keep Powell and being fine with letting Osborn walk. But he's not going to feel comfortable with Nailor being available and capable of coming in and producing if someone gets hurt.
That's where I see WR being a target in FA. Like a Westbrook-Ikhine or Kendrick Bourne or Mecole Hardman. Powell is really more of a WR4, but that's OK since Hock will soak up a ton of targets once he returns. Having another WR4 type, especially ones who are willing blockers like Bourne or MVS makes too much sense and shouldn't cost much at all.
It's 0% on Day 1 and 5% on Day 2 only because I don't trust Kevin.
But I do think they potentially look to Day 3 for someone to challenge for Nailor's spot. Or at the very least challenge the Trishton Jackson's of the world. I'm thinking in the 6th. Someone like De'Corian Clark or Isaiah Williams. Maybe Luke McCaffrey in the 5th.
I can easily see Minnesota double and triple dipping on the Lines and skipping WR altogether so I'm going to say 30-40%.
9. TE. 0% on Day 1 & 2. But don't be surprised by a Day 3 selection. Mundt likely returns and gets the majority of Hock's targets. O'Connell will talk big again about Oliver and proceed to call one chip and release target for him per game. But while I do think they like Muse, they need less of a project in case Mundt goes down. And it doesn't make a ton of sense to Roster a veteran just until TJ comes back.
On Day 3 they could target a kid like Dallin Holker in the late 5th or 6th. Or Theo Jackson with the early 5th if he's still there. Definitely the local product Brevyn Spann-Ford in the late 5th or possibly the 6th. These kids offer more as pass catchers than blockers and that's OK because that is needed. I suspect TJ misses at least 6 games. You can't have all your eggs in the Johnny Mundt basket.
Another funky option is Jaheim Bell. He's too small to be an in-line TE. But he could be an H-Back/Fullback/TE hybrid that can even line up outside at times. FSU deployed him all over the field. And he had success as a Swiss Army Knife at the Senior Bowl. He's Combine measurables will kill his Draft stock, IMO. Might be worth a look in the 6th.
I actually go 60-65% for a Day 3 pick here.
10. S. 0% on Days 1 & 2. Potentially even Day 3. Even if Smith retires there's still Bynum, Metellus, Jackson and Ward. And technically Cine. I can see adding a Special Teams kid with some upside in the 7th. Maybe with the second of the two 6th Rounders. Kenny Logan or Dadrion Taylor-Demerson are possibilities. I personally like Kitan Oladapo but I think he goes in the 5th if he tests well.
What are your thoughts? Which positions do you think are higher potential targets in the Draft and why? Or throw some names out there of prospects I didn't mention. I've done 300 mocks and watched dozens of hours of reviews, but I would never claim to know all the prospects.