FSUVike's Offseason Plan #3-Holdin' the Line
Feb 21, 2024 16:19:52 GMT -6
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Funkytown, kmillard, and 4 more like this
Post by FSUVike on Feb 21, 2024 16:19:52 GMT -6
Here we go again!
For this exercise the Vikings do not extend Kirk Cousins or Danielle Hunter. The Free Agent acquisitions do not include any Tier 1 players.
Why? Because Kwesi hasn't shown a propensity to do that, though he hasn't really had the cap space to make a big splash while also addressing other areas of need. And Minnesota will have a TON of cap space next year.
This will be a FA Class headlined by Jacoby Brissett, Andrew Van Ginkel, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Azeez Al-Shaair, Dorance Armstrong (or AJ Epenesa), and Javon Kinlaw (or Maurice Hurst).
There's a theme here, younger players coming off their first deal that didn't live up to expectations (Kinlaw, Espenesa), battled injuries (Kinlaw, Hurst), or are somewhat scheme dependent (Al-Shaair, Van Ginkel, Armstrong).
Brissett is the classic Bridge QB. Van Ginkel reunites with Flores as a chess piece he can move around the Line who is coming off his best season. He's the same age as Hunter, so he doesn't fit the younger player profile, but he's cheap and a known commodity for Brian.
Murphy-Bunting has been discussed in other posters offseason plans. He's JAG. But he's bigger than any CB currently on the Roster.
Al-Shaair is a run stuffer that can't cover. He's not the blitzer Hicks was though. Kinlaw disappointed after being a high selection for the 9ers. Mostly due to health. So yet another of Kwesi's injury value signings. Or they could go with a situational interior pass rusher in Hurst that also can't stay healthy.
Armstrong intrigues me. He played all over the Line for Dallas. Another movable chess piece for Flores. Epenesa is more strictly an Edge but he's actually a little bigger than Armstrong so I can see him as someone Brian can groom. PFF thinks he's got some upside on stunts and twists, which Flores is known for.
Returning are Dalton Risner, DJ Wonnum and Brandon Powell. Plus RFA/EFRA guys like Brendel, Tonga and Theo Jackson as well as retaining Quessenberry for swing Tackle and Dye for Special Teams.
Now I hit the Draft without having to reach because I don't have a glaring hole on my Roster. Brissett is absolutely better than Mullens or Dobbs. And there are enough pieces for Flores to keep the Defense somewhat competitive. Which is really how I would describe the overall Roster, Somewhat Competitive. Turnovers, conservative Playcalling and Injuries hurt Minnesota after Cousins went down. But they were really only blown out once. And while losing Hunter hurts there are enough added pieces to help Flores try to recreate last year's success. Without counting on anyone from the Draft.
Now on to said Draft. I ran dozens of permutations on PFF and PFN. Generally, Jared Verse, Byron Murphy, Terrion Arnold, Quinyon Mitchell, Laitu Latu and JJ McCarthy were always available at #11 on PFF. McCarthy is occasionally gone on PFN.
I think that's highly realistic as Maik Nabors, Rome Odunze, MHJ, Joe Alt and Olu Fashanu plus QB1-3 are almost always gone and Dallas Turner always is on PFN. Dallas Turner is almost always gone on PFN and vice versa on PFF so I left him off due to the variance between the two sites.
I decided to get greedy. While it's well-known that I am very high on this QB Class, I'm also a big fan of the Draft overall. The Bears GM Poles is on record saying this was the Draft he wanted as many picks in as he could get. I'm assuming he meant the Top 100.
Unfortunately, I don't have a 3rd Round Pick. With 6 Players at #11 I'd be thrilled to get, it makes sense to trade back a bit. There are still really good Tackle prospects available that Minnesota doesn't need. Some good Receivers too. And Brock Bowers. Indianapolis and Jacksonville are potential partners that both PFN and PFF believe would be interested. And the Rams.
But I want McCarthy so I move back to #15. And he promptly goes to Denver at #12. Damn. A mistake? Not in my mind. I have a late 1st Round Grade on JJ. Positional Value dictates that he gets bumped up to a mid-1st Round Grade. Either a slight overpay and only a single Day 2 Pick if I sit still and take him at #11, or I take the chance. And if I miss I still have 3-4 other Players I covet.
Many of you will hate that gamble. And that's fine. I personally don't believe this Roster is good enough as constructed to move up for a QBOTF or to stand pat and slightly reach on a kid who 100% needs to sit for all of the 2024 season.
So what's the plan at QB? Do I try and move back into the late 1st for Nix? Nope. I have higher grades on Carson Beck and Shadeur Sanders than I have on Nix. I like Penix more but the mechanics and injury history hurt.
But Michael was there at #42 in a couple of my mocks. Trading back in the 1st to #20 netted me two more Day 2 picks so I felt comfortable using #42 on Penix. He needs to clean up his footwork. Too square to the LOS too much, causing him to throw strictly with his arm with no torque coming from his lower half. But if he’s there at #42 I take the chance that KOC can clean up his lower half and take advantage of that bazooka arm.
My favorite mock on PFN was as follows:
#20. Jared Verse-Edge
#42. Michael Penix Jr.-QB
#56. Ruke Orhorhoro-IDL
#87. Austin Booker-Edge
#108. Cam Hart-CB
#155. Drake Nugent-C
#165. Isaiah Davis-RB
#178. Tyrice Knight-ILB
I also picked up a 2025 2nd somewhere along the way. Positionally, I don't see Verse sliding to #20. But I can probably get Laitu Latu there. He's more polished as a pass rusher, just not as athletic. Orhorhoro hasn't been playing football for all that long. He's more of an upside kid to develop. Already good against the run but needs coaching up on developing more pass rush moves. Why not double down on Edge? Booker had a great Senior Bowl and will likely have a great Combine.
Verse (or Latu) starts opposite of Van Ginkel. Kinlaw starts next to Phillips. Orhorhoro rotates with Tonga and Roy, but I expect him to be a full time Starter by the end of the year.
Armstrong and Booker rotate in on obvious passing downs. Armstrong will play all over the Line in those situations. Verse is strong enough to kick inside. Van Ginkel, Kinlaw, Verse, Armstrong and Booker on 3rd & Long has real potential. And Booker replaces Van Ginkel in a year or two.
As for the rest of the Draft, folks should know by now that I'm obsessed with getting a bigger body to compete in the Corner Room. Cam Hart is almost 6'3 and 200 pounds. He can play Off Man and Zone. He has a good chance to supplant Evans in TC.
Nugent needs some time to develop in Pass Pro but he's a really good run blocker in the same system O'Connell runs.
Isaiah Davis is a bull with a little more wiggle than Mattison. I consider him a straight up replacement eventually for Alexander. Tyrice Knight has great instincts against the run. He'll start on Special Teams as he learns how to blitz.
If Penix is gone by #42 my favorite Draft on PFF so far is this:
#15. Jared Verse-Edge
#42. Darius Robinson-IDL/Edge
#46. Kris Jenkins-IDL
#109. Jarvis Brownlee Jr.-CB
#130. Cooper Bebe-IOL
#145. Trey Benson-RB
#157. Zak Zinter-IOL
#166. Cedric Gray-ILB
#179. De'Corian Clark-WR
#227. Brandon Coleman-T
Darius Robinson is a lot like Dorance Armstrong. He can play all over the Line. Except he's much bigger. Which gives Flores 2 chess pieces.
Kris Jenkins is an absolute freak athlete. But he needs to develop an actual pass rush plan and not just rely on his amazing power. He starts because he eats up the run.
Brownlee isn't a huge CB but I think he moves ahead of Evans quickly. I don't think Bebe has a snowballs chance of ending up where I picked him. He's rated way higher on PFN. But you can slot Christian Mahogany in here as another Guard with the ability to develop into a legitimate challenger to supplant Ingram or Risner.
Trey Benson is my RB1. A bit of a homerish take. But if he ends up a Viking I guarantee he's RB1 by the middle of his Rookie season.
Zinter suffered a horrendous injury in the Ohio State game. So here's a bit of a gamble. But he would have gone much higher if he hadn't got hurt. Cedric Gray is rated much higher by PFN than PFF. I agree. So slot Tevin Wallace or Tommy Eichenberg in there as another bigger ILB to groom to take over for Shaair if Azeez doesn't get better at blitzing. Clark is a small school sleeper. Coleman is a dart throw to potentially become a swing Tackle.
You can easily sub out Brownlee or an OG for Jordan Travis or Michael Pratt if you're sweating bullets about rolling with Brissett and no QBOTF to try and sell to the fan base.
I'm less concerned about that. This is my not-so-subtle announcement that the Minnesota Vikings are in full rebuild mode. If Jefferson complains than he can play out his Rookie Contract and I'll tag his ass twice. This isn't the NBA. Justin wants to be an All Time Great more than he truly cares about winning a Superbowl, IMO. He's already proven that he can ball out with lesser QBs than Brissett or Tannehill or whomever Kwesi gets to be a bridge. He recently said as much. He'll sign when Kwesi offers more guaranteed money. Don't kid yourselves that anything else is holding things up.
And I'm targeting '25 to get my QBOTF. Confident in my plan because my Free Agent signings and enough Draft Picks contribute to a Team that stays in the hunt for the final Wildcard spot longer than most think. Which gets me and my coach extended before the 2025 Offseason. An Offseason where I can legitimately go after 1 or 2 Tier 1 Free Agents.
This Plan is simple: Reinforce the Lines. In Free Agency, but without overpaying, and in the Draft. In either mock I get an Edge that Starts from Day 1, be it Verse or Latu. And extra insurance, be it Booker or Robinson. Or Kneeland. Or Murphy. The point is that there are options on Day 2 if you have an extra pick.
In both plans I grab a DT with massive upside to develop to improve the IDL. You can add Leonard Taylor as another option in the 2nd that has many of the same traits.
And I got legitimate competition for the IOL. While keeping it intact for the sake of continuity. Plus competition for Evans/Booth, Chandler/Mattison and a future starting ILB if my FA swing doesn't pan out.
If you Build the Lines the QBOTF will come. Maybe not in 2024. But he will arrive eventually. Or I get fired. Also not a bad thing.
For this exercise the Vikings do not extend Kirk Cousins or Danielle Hunter. The Free Agent acquisitions do not include any Tier 1 players.
Why? Because Kwesi hasn't shown a propensity to do that, though he hasn't really had the cap space to make a big splash while also addressing other areas of need. And Minnesota will have a TON of cap space next year.
This will be a FA Class headlined by Jacoby Brissett, Andrew Van Ginkel, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Azeez Al-Shaair, Dorance Armstrong (or AJ Epenesa), and Javon Kinlaw (or Maurice Hurst).
There's a theme here, younger players coming off their first deal that didn't live up to expectations (Kinlaw, Espenesa), battled injuries (Kinlaw, Hurst), or are somewhat scheme dependent (Al-Shaair, Van Ginkel, Armstrong).
Brissett is the classic Bridge QB. Van Ginkel reunites with Flores as a chess piece he can move around the Line who is coming off his best season. He's the same age as Hunter, so he doesn't fit the younger player profile, but he's cheap and a known commodity for Brian.
Murphy-Bunting has been discussed in other posters offseason plans. He's JAG. But he's bigger than any CB currently on the Roster.
Al-Shaair is a run stuffer that can't cover. He's not the blitzer Hicks was though. Kinlaw disappointed after being a high selection for the 9ers. Mostly due to health. So yet another of Kwesi's injury value signings. Or they could go with a situational interior pass rusher in Hurst that also can't stay healthy.
Armstrong intrigues me. He played all over the Line for Dallas. Another movable chess piece for Flores. Epenesa is more strictly an Edge but he's actually a little bigger than Armstrong so I can see him as someone Brian can groom. PFF thinks he's got some upside on stunts and twists, which Flores is known for.
Returning are Dalton Risner, DJ Wonnum and Brandon Powell. Plus RFA/EFRA guys like Brendel, Tonga and Theo Jackson as well as retaining Quessenberry for swing Tackle and Dye for Special Teams.
Now I hit the Draft without having to reach because I don't have a glaring hole on my Roster. Brissett is absolutely better than Mullens or Dobbs. And there are enough pieces for Flores to keep the Defense somewhat competitive. Which is really how I would describe the overall Roster, Somewhat Competitive. Turnovers, conservative Playcalling and Injuries hurt Minnesota after Cousins went down. But they were really only blown out once. And while losing Hunter hurts there are enough added pieces to help Flores try to recreate last year's success. Without counting on anyone from the Draft.
Now on to said Draft. I ran dozens of permutations on PFF and PFN. Generally, Jared Verse, Byron Murphy, Terrion Arnold, Quinyon Mitchell, Laitu Latu and JJ McCarthy were always available at #11 on PFF. McCarthy is occasionally gone on PFN.
I think that's highly realistic as Maik Nabors, Rome Odunze, MHJ, Joe Alt and Olu Fashanu plus QB1-3 are almost always gone and Dallas Turner always is on PFN. Dallas Turner is almost always gone on PFN and vice versa on PFF so I left him off due to the variance between the two sites.
I decided to get greedy. While it's well-known that I am very high on this QB Class, I'm also a big fan of the Draft overall. The Bears GM Poles is on record saying this was the Draft he wanted as many picks in as he could get. I'm assuming he meant the Top 100.
Unfortunately, I don't have a 3rd Round Pick. With 6 Players at #11 I'd be thrilled to get, it makes sense to trade back a bit. There are still really good Tackle prospects available that Minnesota doesn't need. Some good Receivers too. And Brock Bowers. Indianapolis and Jacksonville are potential partners that both PFN and PFF believe would be interested. And the Rams.
But I want McCarthy so I move back to #15. And he promptly goes to Denver at #12. Damn. A mistake? Not in my mind. I have a late 1st Round Grade on JJ. Positional Value dictates that he gets bumped up to a mid-1st Round Grade. Either a slight overpay and only a single Day 2 Pick if I sit still and take him at #11, or I take the chance. And if I miss I still have 3-4 other Players I covet.
Many of you will hate that gamble. And that's fine. I personally don't believe this Roster is good enough as constructed to move up for a QBOTF or to stand pat and slightly reach on a kid who 100% needs to sit for all of the 2024 season.
So what's the plan at QB? Do I try and move back into the late 1st for Nix? Nope. I have higher grades on Carson Beck and Shadeur Sanders than I have on Nix. I like Penix more but the mechanics and injury history hurt.
But Michael was there at #42 in a couple of my mocks. Trading back in the 1st to #20 netted me two more Day 2 picks so I felt comfortable using #42 on Penix. He needs to clean up his footwork. Too square to the LOS too much, causing him to throw strictly with his arm with no torque coming from his lower half. But if he’s there at #42 I take the chance that KOC can clean up his lower half and take advantage of that bazooka arm.
My favorite mock on PFN was as follows:
#20. Jared Verse-Edge
#42. Michael Penix Jr.-QB
#56. Ruke Orhorhoro-IDL
#87. Austin Booker-Edge
#108. Cam Hart-CB
#155. Drake Nugent-C
#165. Isaiah Davis-RB
#178. Tyrice Knight-ILB
I also picked up a 2025 2nd somewhere along the way. Positionally, I don't see Verse sliding to #20. But I can probably get Laitu Latu there. He's more polished as a pass rusher, just not as athletic. Orhorhoro hasn't been playing football for all that long. He's more of an upside kid to develop. Already good against the run but needs coaching up on developing more pass rush moves. Why not double down on Edge? Booker had a great Senior Bowl and will likely have a great Combine.
Verse (or Latu) starts opposite of Van Ginkel. Kinlaw starts next to Phillips. Orhorhoro rotates with Tonga and Roy, but I expect him to be a full time Starter by the end of the year.
Armstrong and Booker rotate in on obvious passing downs. Armstrong will play all over the Line in those situations. Verse is strong enough to kick inside. Van Ginkel, Kinlaw, Verse, Armstrong and Booker on 3rd & Long has real potential. And Booker replaces Van Ginkel in a year or two.
As for the rest of the Draft, folks should know by now that I'm obsessed with getting a bigger body to compete in the Corner Room. Cam Hart is almost 6'3 and 200 pounds. He can play Off Man and Zone. He has a good chance to supplant Evans in TC.
Nugent needs some time to develop in Pass Pro but he's a really good run blocker in the same system O'Connell runs.
Isaiah Davis is a bull with a little more wiggle than Mattison. I consider him a straight up replacement eventually for Alexander. Tyrice Knight has great instincts against the run. He'll start on Special Teams as he learns how to blitz.
If Penix is gone by #42 my favorite Draft on PFF so far is this:
#15. Jared Verse-Edge
#42. Darius Robinson-IDL/Edge
#46. Kris Jenkins-IDL
#109. Jarvis Brownlee Jr.-CB
#130. Cooper Bebe-IOL
#145. Trey Benson-RB
#157. Zak Zinter-IOL
#166. Cedric Gray-ILB
#179. De'Corian Clark-WR
#227. Brandon Coleman-T
Darius Robinson is a lot like Dorance Armstrong. He can play all over the Line. Except he's much bigger. Which gives Flores 2 chess pieces.
Kris Jenkins is an absolute freak athlete. But he needs to develop an actual pass rush plan and not just rely on his amazing power. He starts because he eats up the run.
Brownlee isn't a huge CB but I think he moves ahead of Evans quickly. I don't think Bebe has a snowballs chance of ending up where I picked him. He's rated way higher on PFN. But you can slot Christian Mahogany in here as another Guard with the ability to develop into a legitimate challenger to supplant Ingram or Risner.
Trey Benson is my RB1. A bit of a homerish take. But if he ends up a Viking I guarantee he's RB1 by the middle of his Rookie season.
Zinter suffered a horrendous injury in the Ohio State game. So here's a bit of a gamble. But he would have gone much higher if he hadn't got hurt. Cedric Gray is rated much higher by PFN than PFF. I agree. So slot Tevin Wallace or Tommy Eichenberg in there as another bigger ILB to groom to take over for Shaair if Azeez doesn't get better at blitzing. Clark is a small school sleeper. Coleman is a dart throw to potentially become a swing Tackle.
You can easily sub out Brownlee or an OG for Jordan Travis or Michael Pratt if you're sweating bullets about rolling with Brissett and no QBOTF to try and sell to the fan base.
I'm less concerned about that. This is my not-so-subtle announcement that the Minnesota Vikings are in full rebuild mode. If Jefferson complains than he can play out his Rookie Contract and I'll tag his ass twice. This isn't the NBA. Justin wants to be an All Time Great more than he truly cares about winning a Superbowl, IMO. He's already proven that he can ball out with lesser QBs than Brissett or Tannehill or whomever Kwesi gets to be a bridge. He recently said as much. He'll sign when Kwesi offers more guaranteed money. Don't kid yourselves that anything else is holding things up.
And I'm targeting '25 to get my QBOTF. Confident in my plan because my Free Agent signings and enough Draft Picks contribute to a Team that stays in the hunt for the final Wildcard spot longer than most think. Which gets me and my coach extended before the 2025 Offseason. An Offseason where I can legitimately go after 1 or 2 Tier 1 Free Agents.
This Plan is simple: Reinforce the Lines. In Free Agency, but without overpaying, and in the Draft. In either mock I get an Edge that Starts from Day 1, be it Verse or Latu. And extra insurance, be it Booker or Robinson. Or Kneeland. Or Murphy. The point is that there are options on Day 2 if you have an extra pick.
In both plans I grab a DT with massive upside to develop to improve the IDL. You can add Leonard Taylor as another option in the 2nd that has many of the same traits.
And I got legitimate competition for the IOL. While keeping it intact for the sake of continuity. Plus competition for Evans/Booth, Chandler/Mattison and a future starting ILB if my FA swing doesn't pan out.
If you Build the Lines the QBOTF will come. Maybe not in 2024. But he will arrive eventually. Or I get fired. Also not a bad thing.
... and neither is this Chris guy.