More Either/Or

Have I ever mentioned to everyone here about the time that Uncle and @jor-El sort of saved my life? Over an argument about some ok-ish Receiver Rick inked from the Steelers that I thought would really help the Offense. Damn, that was like nearly 10 years ago!

So everyone here will understand that sometimes I let 'er rip on these two because our back and forth literally helped me through a scary night in the ER with a severe case of pneumonia.

You're both WAAAAY to into the weeds on this whole 'What QB fits the Shanahan/McVay/O'Connell System' schtick.

I am on record time and time again with my opinion that Kevin William O'Connell is in over his head. He's not a good playcaller. And I'm not sure he's a good Game Day Head Coach.

What isn't he? A clone of his mentors. Go back and watch the Superbowl. Kyle Shanahan runs the ball a lot more than O'Connell. Especially off Tackle. He throws the ball to his FB. And a ton to his RB.

He doesn't just use motion to help his QB diagnose Defenses. He calls Jet Sweeps. Calls every screen type under the sun. Smoke, tunnel, bubble. And even more.

Shanahan also hands the ball off a bunch from Shotgun. And calls way more TE and FB chip block and release plays. You all know. The ones KOC calls at the beginning of the game for a 1st Down to Oliver or Mundt and then never calls the rest of the game.

Is McVay any different? He is in terms of switching from an Outside/Wide Zone Blocking scheme to Inside Zone Blocking this year. Which absolutely unlocked the Rans running game. Because LA somehow had the foresight to figure out that Kevin Dotson could be inked and would excel in that system.

But McVay still attacks Defenses horizontally, just like Shanahan. Stretching opponents out from sideline to sideline in order to create stress leading to open Pass Catchers in the Intermediate Range is a core tenet of what both men do.

And that is manifestly, unquestionably NOT what Kevin O'Connell runs. He may employ the same Wide Receiver Routes. But he's never shown any kind of proclivity whatsoever to consistently attack Defenses horizontally. Ever. Two freaking years in. No Jet Sweeps. His Screens are generic. And suck. He hates running off-Tackle. Hates it.

Want more? O'Connell clearly isn't a fan of throwing a lot of passes to the RB. Or ever to the FB. He'll dial up a chip block and release once a game just to show it. Bootlegs and Waggles don't exist in his dojo.

Kevin O'Connell calls much more of an Air Coryell system from under Center than he runs a Shanahan/McVay concepts in terms of where he wants to attack you. In his mind why not? He designed an Offense that led Cooper Kupp to achieve a rare Triple Crown. And enabled McVay to task Matt Stafford with just throwing the ball to Kupp over and over and over again on a Superbowl winning drive after the Rams lost Beckham and had nowhere else to go.

He's Elite at designing a passing game centered on throwing the ball to an Elite Wide Receiver who has a good combination of ancillary weapons around him. Justin Jefferson and Cooper Kupp aren't even the same type of Receiver. But KOC has obviously shown he knows how to adjust his system to maximize a different kind of Elite Wide Receiver.

And he showed this year that he knows how switch gears. Jordan Addison is a lot more like Kupp than JJ. Again, all three win in different ways. But they all win. Addison less against Man Coverage than the other two. But he still can beat Coverage.

Sooooooo what I challenge all of us here and on the DN and everywhere else is to STOP asking ourselves what Quarterback in this Class fits the Shanahan/McVay System and instead think about who might fit the O'Connell System.

Why does that player have to be a Pocket Passer ala Goff/Stafford/Cousins? Heck, Brock Purdy ain't afraid to run it. If he was the 9ers wouldn't have made the Superbowl.

From what we've seen so far, and what he's said, he wants a QB that can diagnose the Defense pre-snap and post-snap, hit his back foot in rhythm, and throw the ball with timing and precision. But wait, there's more! Kevin also wants someone who can process reads quickly and take what the Defense gives him if the primary read isn't open.

That second part is where too many folks are getting hung up on O'Connell needing a statue in the pocket to succeed. When JJ isn't open and his QB buys some time with his legs before he finds Hock or TJ that's a bad thing? No.

I will admit there was a time during the last season where I thought Kevin would look at that as a negative. But I've watched a whole lot more tape and listened to a lot of really smart people since then.

Kwesi and Kevin are looking for the best fit for what the Vikings do, not Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay. And O'Connell could definitely be looking for a more diverse skillset than he's ever possessed or coached before.

That would be Mike Wallace, whom Rick traded for early in the 2015 offseason for a 5th Rd pick. The 2014 WR room consisted of Greg Jennings, C Patterson, Jarius Wright, Charles Johnson and a young Adam Thielen (who wouldn't start making bigtime catches until the following season in 2016), and this was before Rick struck gold in the 2015 Draft with Diggs in the 5th Rd.

Here is Kevin himself telling Colin Cowherd on 2/12/24 what he wants in a QB:

Accuracy...anticipation..."big field" vision (aka, processing & pocket presence)...does their brain process that information in a way that allows them to change their course of action fast enough? Can he sense pass rushers around him, while also feeling and manipulating the leverage of defenders in coverage?

Honestly, when you look at that definition, I would say the QB who fits that description the most out of the Top 6 QB prospects is Michael Penix, Jr...

Just take a look at this description from The Draft Network (link):

Penix Jr. does a good job reading defenses pre and post-snap. He is quick in reading the coverage and going through his progressions. Penix Jr. processes information well to find his open receivers. When kept clean, he will carve up a defense from the pocket. He is a functional athlete to makes plays with his legs and moves within the pocket. His pocket maneuverability is an underrated part of his game.

Penix Jr. is a difficult quarterback to blitz. His football IQ and instincts allow him to see the field and burn the defense for not having enough bodies in coverage. Once he identifies it pre-snap, he knows where to go with the football and what plays to audible into.

Daniel Jeremiah had an interesting comp for Penix in late Oct 2023 (link):
If Kwesi isn't successful with acquiring one of the Top 4 QB's (Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy), then I could see them targeting Penix, either in the late 1st or early 2nd.

Goodness, you must be giving us too much credit for helping with that situation, not sure I knew that. Glad you got through it, friend.


Mike Wallace, there's a guy I had forgotten. Didn't Rick try to sign him as a FA, get turned down by Wallace, and then get him here on a trade later? Rick was hot for the idea of having a speedster at WR for a while IIRC. I think he was overly concerned with speed for a while, then overcorrected with the Treadwell pick.


The way I see this is that KOC is not going to mind if his QB can move around or add some plays. But he doesn't want a QB who only succeeds by running, which is what Dobbs turned out to be. (The Dobbs acquisition has confused all of us more than almost anything else K/K have done.) I doubt we're going to guess who KOC wants, unless we can sit in on interviews.
It may just be non-predictive because it tells more about the OL and other team components. But do you have the same stat for these QBs in the NFL? Even though Josh Allen is "successful", I think he takes a lot of sacks. But that's just an impression, not a stat.

I don't think so. The offenses, coaching and quality of team around the QB varied, but the one constant was the better the QB, the worse their grade under pressure.


Allen is fantastic under pressure in the NFL and in fact 4 of those 5 QBs who were horrible under pressure according to PFF in college have been fantastic in the pros and were all in the top 7 this year.

JJ McCarthy @ #5, costing #42 and the 2025 2nd (as proposed by PFN).

OR

Byron Murphy @ #11 and Bo Nix @ #30, costing #42, one of this year's 5th Round picks and the 2025 3rd Round Pick (as proposed by The Athletic).

Interesting. Murphy, like Turner/Verse/Latu starts from Day 1 and helps provide more pass rush. In either scenario I would bite the bullet and extend Hunter to maintain production on the Defensive Line since Kirk is gone.

I would expect Nix to start in the latter third of the season. I wouldn't expect McCarthy to see the field at all his Rookie season. And the Vikings emerge from the 2024 Draft with zero surefire Starters at Edge, IDL, CB, or IOL if McCarthy is the option selected.

JJ has the higher ceiling. But now I only have a 1st & 3rd to add young Starters to the core around him in the 2025 Draft.

Let's assume the drafted Players in '24 and '25 hit for the sake of comparing these moves. It's essentially McCarthy and 2 Starters (the 1st & 3rd Round Picks from '25) vs. Nix and 3 Starters (the 1st Round Pick in '24 and the 1st & 2nd Round Picks in '25).

That 3rd in '25 in the McCarthy scenario will obviously not be the same caliber of Player as the 2nd in '25 in the Nix scenario.

Tough call for me. I just don't think Nix has a high enough ceiling compared to a couple of the prospects available in '25. So for me it's moving up to #5 for McCarthy and absolutely accepting the fact that the Vikings window will not open until 2026.

But I honestly don't like this option either. McCarthy is not close to the same level of prospect that Mahomes was. Patrick threw for over 4,000 yards two years in a row. I just don't see him being worth that kind of move up.

Yeah, even if you're high on McCarthy, moving up to #5 for him is just too rich. He's not that great of a QB prospect, and you're moving up for the #4 QB prospect of the class... I get spending #11 on him, but moving 2 2nds just to get him? No thanks.