Competitive Reload - QBOTF

This is my first time doing an actual offseason plan with a full draft and everything. I don’t pretend to be a scout, so I’m sure there will be some criticism, especially of my draft picks, particularly later in the draft where I’ll literally be throwing darts at a dartboard. But with that said, my philosophy is fairly straight forward here. I’m assuming that the “competitive rebuild” concept is in its final stages, which means this is the year to move on from Kirk in large part due to his asking price and a very deep QB class. Kwesi has done a pretty good job cleaning up the cap mess, and while we don’t have a ton of cap room this year, we don’t really need it as we have loads of cap space next year. We can make several big moves this year and start building some corner stone pieces now. We’ve also had 2 years to evaluate the staff. The roster turning this point is largely over; however, due to a poor 2022 draft and poor drafts at the end of Rick’s tenure, this roster is sadly still very top heavy.


Unlike Kwesi, I’m not going to play Mr. nice guy here. We didn’t fire Phillips, so he stays, but I am going to flex a bit and make it clear to KOC that the day to day play calling and offense responsibilities will go to Phillips. Keenan McCardel will also get a change in title to Senior Offensive assistant. He will retain his duties as WR coach, but there will be expectations to start grooming him for a potential role of OC either here or elsewhere as he as expressed a desire to grow. He will be calling plays during pre-season, handling at least one game start to finish, and will get some opportunities during the regular season as well during parts of games as well as a greater role in the offense. I will also expect Flores to name and groom a successor for a similar role on the defense. I’m building a sustainable organization, not a silo. Next man up applies to coaches as well. KOC has not shown the ability to run an offense and a team. We can revisit this at a later time, but for now, I want him to master the ability to run a team given that this is his primary responsibility. He can still be involved in the offense as much as he pleases, but play calling goes to Phillips, and I will want more input from Phillips in particular on how to fix our abysmal running game, and Phillips will be responsible for it on game day.


Back to the numbers, which is more my specialty. We’re at an effective cap space of $24,658,132 according to overthecap, which I assume accounts for our draft class, so here goes.


First up, the easy cuts:

Harrison Smith – I’ve enjoyed his time here, but I think it’s time. I’m going to designate this a post-June 1 cut. That cuts the dead money in half and push a little of that into 2025. He’s going to save 15,300,000 against the cap.


New cap: 39,958,132


Dean Lowry – I plan on getting a lot better on the line. He’s not part of this plan. This will be a straight cut and will save a little over 2M if I’m reading the chart right. If we’re really tight on space, I can do this post June 1, but I’m still not a fan of kicking the can down the road anymore than I have to.


New cap: 42,040,485

I now have plenty of money to work with here. This will allow me to do what I want this year and I haven’t even touched next season which currently has more than 140M. It won’t last though. Good drafting should fill a few starting holes this year and hopefully give us a lot of “next man up” pieces for the inevitable injuries that will occur and potentially force us to trade or move on from other players.


Next up, bring back Hunter, and give him help. I’m drafting a QB, so giving Flores some talent on the line to work with is going to be my top priority here. We haven’t invested much in the line over the last couple seasons, and I’m not sure that’s going to happen in 2024 at least (depending on what happens in round 2). I do see that being a priority in 2025/26, but I’ve already made it clear that QBOTF is in the works, so this season isn’t going to be the year we likely get impact on the line unless Carter II really steps up. So I’m going to go out and pay for it in a big way. That’s fine, as we have the money in 2025/26 and start unloading these contracts in 2027. We can focus on developing our new QB toy and putting together a good defense to go with him. I’m guessing Hunter is going to want something pretty close to market setting. I’m not sure he’ll get it, but I plan on being the highest bidder for his services, and he wants to stay here, so I’m going to assume an absolute worst case scenario to keep him. I’d rather give him the worst case number than Cousins personally.


Uncle  already showed us how we can extend Hunter and do so without costing us a dime in 2024. I don’t think we need to go to that extreme, but we can keep him here without hurting us too much in 2024. I’ll use his numbers though for simplicity sake. Hunter is getting 4/100. I think he ultimately signs for less than this. I would simply match whatever he’s getting but possibly move some numbers around for cap reasons while making sure the guarantees work. 



In this scenario, we get a cap savings of 1.6 M this year. He is likely cut after the 2026 season or extended cheaply if he’s still playing reasonably well.


New cap: 43,640,485


I’m also focusing on a battery mate, and given Christian Wilkins familiarity with Flores, I’m hoping he is willing to take a bit less, but I’ll use Uncle’s number again.




New cap: 37,390,485

I have one more big move I want to make, but this time I’m focusing on the offensive line. I cannot replace both Bradburry and Risner. I’m going to assume Ingram gets one more year as he did improve a bit. I certainly heard his name being cursed a lot less as the season went on. I may replace Bradburry in the draft depending on how things fall, but he’s also cheap and could be replaced in 2025. I do want my new QB to have every opportunity to succeed, and the better the line play around him, the happier I will be. I could bring back Risner, but the run game sucks too, so I think we need to get at least one expensive upgrade here. I don’t like the money we’re spending here, but we’re letting Kirk go and drafting a rookie, so I want to do more to give the rookie a chance.

I'll steal Danchat 's move here and poach Robert Hunt from Miami. He grades well against the pass and run and has gotten better each year. As it was, he was the 6th overall guard this year grading mid 70s for both pass and run. That’s not quite elite, but it’s pretty good. Dan thinks we can get him for 4/60 with 35 guaranteed. That means I can do that without taking too much off of the cap as that’s 15 per season. I’ll give him a 16 M signing bonus taking 4M this year along with another 4M in base pay for 2024 as a part of that deal. 20M of that is guaranteed this season, and he has an 8M hit this year as well.

New cap: 29,390,485

Lower cost FA Moves:

My last free agent on the defensive line will be more of a value move. I now have two guys that will give defenses fits. My next signing won’t be as expensive, but I want a guy who can win one on one matchups a lot and someone I can sub in for Phillips on more obvious passing situations.


I’m going to target Denico Autry. He’s older but can still get at the QB getting double digit sacks in 2023. He would be in for obvious passing downs. I’m looking for flexibility here, and I think I can get him for 2/12 with a 6M cap hit.



Next up, some smaller moves. I need a bridge QB for certain. Ryan Tannehill is a guy that likely can run KOC’s offense, so that’s going to be my choice here. I’m going to use spotrac’s numbers where listed since they are 1 year deals. I have him coming here for 5M.


I also need a kicker, and I’m tired of Joseph. I want accuracy first and foremost, and I’m willing to go out and get one of the better ones out there. I’m signing Ka’imi Fairbairn. He signed a 4/17 deal in his last go around. I’m guessing it will cost a bit more to get him this time. I’ll go with a 4/18 deal with a 4M signing bonus and 2M in base salary this year. His cap hit will be 3M.

I’ll also go ahead and retain Udoh (1M) and Powell (1.6M). I will also tender offers to both Brandel and Tonga. I don’t have estimates for them, but they will be cheap.


Cheap FA costs total: 14M (not counting RFA moves)


New cap: 15,390,485



As it stands right now, I haven’t addressed corner or linebacker on defense. I’m probably dumpster diving this season for these roles. I could see bringing Hicks back on a cheap deal or something similar to what Dan did in these areas as I believe the Over the cap affective space has accounted for our draft class. With LB, I’m somewhat operating under the idea that Flores is a LB whisperer and that he can make a lot of guys look good, so I’m hoping he can help with the dumpster diving or realistically do a better job finding a name than what I will do picking, as most of my draft picks are going to look more like the monkey/dart board method, especially in the later rounds. If it hasn’t, then I’ve probably spent about all I can spend, though I do have a few post draft cuts in mind depending on who I get and when.



So now for draft day… I had to tweak my draft settings on PFF, because Jayden Daniels fell to me at 11 on my first mock, and I just don’t think that happens. If he did, I take him and run. Truthfully, I would probably quietly find out about interest in Jefferson or Darrisaw from teams like AZ, but that assumes that Daniels is there at that point, and I’m also getting much more than their 2024 first. I’d want at least the 2025 first. In reality, I doubt I get that, so my assumption is that I’m not moving up. It’s prohibitively expensive, and honestly, I kind of like someone a bit lower. At 11, I’m on the clock, but I think I can move down and NO is interested… We’ll see if I was smart or not:




I’m definitely taking a risk…






And it paid off… My guy is there.

FSUVike  isn’t going to like me here, but I think Nix is the best fit here. I realize he wasn’t asked to make a lot of the mid range throws, but he made them when asked to do so and made them well, so I don’t think his problem will be talent. He graded well in other categories and doesn’t have the injury history Penix does. So I’m going to take the risk on sample size and go with the Oregon QB.



And now on to round 2, as I’m on the clock with number 42. I have a couple of juicy picks here and I get to pick again. I’m all about fixing the running game, so I’m putting Bradburry on notice and selecting Frazier. At 45, Tampa is still there and I take him as well.





In Round 4, NO was interested in my pick, but we could not agree on compensation, as I was willing to swap picks, but I wanted their 4th next year, so no deal. 




I need a RB… Irving is the best on the board. Someone else can yell at me about scheme fit.


Back again in round 4, I have my eyes on someone else, but he’s still pretty far down. I have trade interest and decide to trade back and pick up some ammo next year. It's only a 6th, and I move out of the 4th round, but the guy I wanted to was pretty far down. I should have probably screen grabbed who was there, but I forgot... I was definitely laser focused on a player.



So let's see if it worked as I'm picking at the top of round 5.



It does… I’m going to handcuff Nix with a new QB…


Welcome to Minnesota Mr. Travis. And since I’m picking again.. this is where I’m starting to struggle a bit more. I do need to do a bit more with my defense. I could use another LB and Cedric Gray is also 2 spots below Jordan Jefferson. Part of me wants to draft Jefferson just because I want another JJ on this team. But ultimately, I’m not sure who to evaluate here, but we need LB help, there are a couple decent sized ones on the board that I’m hoping can be molded, so I went with Bertrand (note I did not grab a screenshot here on accident). I’d probably go with who Flores really wanted here, but he’s not standing over my shoulder. This is a dart throw based completely on need and measurables.



Round 5, and I still have two picks. I’m taking Christian’s brother out of respect here. He may turn into nothing, but I trust he knows a thing or two about what it takes to be a pro. This is an appropriate place to pick him, and we’re going to need some depth at WR. I might be wrong here and the answer might be more defense, but I’ve spent a lot of money on defense and I’ve got Carter II sitting in the wings. I have no depth beyond Powell and an often injured Nailor.


For my second pick in round 5, this is what is left:





We were weak in the red zone, and at this point I’m grasping at straws. Theo Johnson is a big bodied TE that could haul in contested catches. He wasn’t good with yards after catch, though he was much better as a Sophomore as a Junior. I don’t know the back story there, so I’m hoping this was an injury, and I like the idea of a big RZ target like Rudolph, especially with Hock likely to miss some of the season.


I’m picking at the top of round 6 here. This is what’s on the board:



There’s no trade interest, and one of FSU’s favorite RBs is still here. Honestly, I’m sick of our RB performance. We signed a big name FA on the line and drafted another center. I know I drafted an RB in the 4th, but I think I’m going to take another one here as I can potentially cut someone to save some cap money after the draft. I still may bring another UDFA in here. KOC is going to have some guys to play with.


Now on to round 7… there was a name I wanted here.. literally a name… I mean who wouldn’t draft a line backer named Steele Chambers, but he got drafted before my pick, plus he’s a Buckeye. Ultimately, I grabbed one of Uncle’s sleepers. There were a few sleepers in our threads that weren’t in PFF’s database, such as Jalyx Hunt, who looks like a good UDFA target, but I was pretty happy, and PFF agreed giving me an overall A. Speaking of UDFAs, I’m also still grabbing another RB. Someone may hit the practice squad or get cut, but I'm getting younger here and I am getting better. Getting a second round pick to move down a few spots was huge, though I probably committed a mortal sin by drafting a corner. I can’t speak to how likely the draft would fall in real life. I had to re-run this a couple times because Daniells fell to 11 more than once. Obviously, I would take him there, but since I don’t think that would happen, I quit and restarted and adjusted the parameters. I’m not sure how realistic it would be trading with QB needy New Orleans, but in theory, I’d know who they were drafting. Denver is the real concern there anyway, and the question is if they overdraft on Nix or Penix. We would know more based on Wilson’s status by the draft and could gage that better. And as a small added bonus, I’m walking away with a 6th rounder next year.


I didn't address the JJ extension. I could in theory extend him and lower his cap hit a bit, or extend him and keep it relatively the same. I'm hoping this shows him the commitment to winning, and that whatever he signs for, while expensive, won't be a bank breaker so to speak, and that JJ will be willing to leave a small amount of surplus value on the table. After the draft, he should see that he's going to have some tools around him. Flores got some big names in FA, but he didn't get much help in this draft. He may get some UDFA help, and I could see some additional names coming through when post draft cuts come. 2025 would definitely be a defense prioritization draft with our top picks. 

These were my grades:




This does give me the flexibility to consider some post draft moves.


Post draft cuts:


Mullens 1,855,000


One or both of Gaskins (985k) and Nwangwu (1,055,000)

Bradburry (2,513,882 savings) is definitely on the bubble at this point, though he has a sizeable dead cap hit that might make him worth keeping.


Hall is on the bubble at this point, but his cost savings is replaced with someone else. He's likely on the practice squad and if he's poached, he's poached.