Danchat's Offseason Guide - 2024
Feb 7, 2024 14:12:14 GMT -6
Funkytown, wavedog, and 15 more like this
Post by Danchat on Feb 7, 2024 14:12:14 GMT -6
Welcome back to my annual Offseason Guide article, where I whip up a hypothetical Vikings offseason that involves axing Vikings, signing copious amounts of free agents, and attempting to fix issues that have been made by management. Let's do a quick review of how the previous articles have went:
I've tried every strategy there is at this point, so I'm going to avoid the extreme plans this time around. I also found it fascinating to see what I opted to do with Kirk and Hunter every year, and the free agents... yeah, I've been demanding we add a guard and a corner every year. And guess what? We'll be doing that again this year!
This year's plan is somewhat on the "retooling" side of things, but is really more on the side of adding young talent since there aren't a whole lot of veterans to shed in the first place. Here is our starting point:
$28M of cap room and there will be ways to increase that, as always. Let's begin:
Releases / Cuts
SS Harrison Smith – Saves $11.38M, leaves $7.83M dead
Smith has been one of my favorite Vikings to watch in my 16 or so years of watching the team, but his time is up. Smith’s effectiveness plummeted to that of an average safety in 2023, and with Flores’ ability to get so much from Metellus and Bynum, it’s better to trust Smith’s spot to a younger safety. I hope Smith can go on and finish his career like Eric Weddle (winning a Super Bowl at age 36 as a starting safety).
DE Dean Lowry – Saves $4.48M, leaves $0M dead
This was a bad move from the beginning, which was something I saw coming a mile away the moment he was signed. A past-his-prime DE who got benched the previous year who can’t stop the run or rush the passer, who is surprised he couldn’t do either here? Thankfully there is no dead money left on his deal, so this is an easy move.
Restructures
None! There is no need for any restructures with the way I’ve outfitted the roster, so there is no need to push money down the road. This keeps the cap open for more spending next year.
Extensions
WR Justin Jefferson – 4 years, $136M total, $70M guaranteed ($34M per year) (saves about $9M of 2024 cap)
As I've done in past years, here is a hypothetical way to structure the deal:
Similar to last year’s plan, I am giving Jefferson the money he wants – not quite the APY of the “highest non-QB in football”, but the guaranteed money is up there with the big names. I suspect Jefferson will sign a shorter deal (3/4 years) so that he can get another big money deal at the end / or near the end of this one. I know some are leery of paying a WR this kind of money, but he’s the best WR in the game and in his prime, I will pay up for that unless another team offers a ridiculous haul in a trade.
DL Harrison Phillips – 2 years, $18M total, $7M guaranteed (saves about $3M of 2024 cap)
Phillips overachieved his initial deal and is worthy of reupping at a reasonable rate. He’s a great run stuffer and a leader in the locker room, but his inability to provide any kind of pressure is why he won’t be earning any more than this. This lowers his 2024 cap and locks him in to 2025 and an option for 2026.
Re-signing internal free agents
ED Danielle Hunter – 3 years, $75M total, $50M guaranteed
I went back and forth on this contract, but after looking at the estimates that Spotrac, OverTheCap, and PFF were giving me, I am bringing back Hunter at $25M a year with two years guaranteed. For the rate he played at under Flores, he is worth that money for his age 30 and 31 seasons. He is the dynamo that powers the defense and if it’s down to bringing back either him or Kirk, to me the answer is easy – it’s Hunter. More depth is coming at edge, as running it back with just him and a bunch of filler (like Wonnum) would not be a wise plan. This deal would very likely be restructured in 2025 to lower his cap hit down.
T David Quessenberry and T Oli Udoh – veteran minimum
These two have filled in quite well for Darrisaw and O’Neill when needed the past two years, and I will opt to bring them back. Udoh’s injury shouldn’t affect his 2024 status.
WR Brandon Powell – veteran minimum
When he did get on the field, Powell showed burst and got open consistently and didn’t drop passes like Osborn did. I have will have compete with Nailor and others for the #3 WR position.
TE Johnny Mundt – veteran minimum
After seemingly being replaced by Josh Oliver, Mundt ended up being the starting TE once Hock went down and surprisingly played decently well after a rough 2022 season. It’s enough for me to bring him back, as Hockenson will surely not be ready for at least a month into the 2024 season.
G Blake Brandel and NT Khyiris Tonga (RFAs)
I will retain these two for depth as I do not anticipate they will be claimed. Brandel will face competition as I thought his play in Ingram’s stead left a lot to be desired. Tonga was mothballed after having a big year (relatively) in 2022. Both are not guarantees to be on the 2024 opening day roster.
(ERFAs S Theo Jackson and TE Nick Muse are retained)
Players Being Let Go
QB Kirk Cousins
Several novels’ worth of text has been etched on this website, so I will spare you a long story. Shortening it, bringing back Cousins only makes sense if the roster around him is ready to win a Super Bowl right now. We are not at that point, and with the way the roster is constructed (top-heavy on offense), it is logical to shift more money to adding defensive talent and fixing the trenches. I appreciate his level of play for the time he's been with the franchise, but it is logical (for both sides) to end the relationship here.
ED Marcus Davenport
The Vikings flushed $11.3M down the toilet by signing Davenport, as his season was ruined by an injury and a setback. Not only that, but it’s been heavily rumored that Davenport gave up on the team and did not make an effort to return at the end of the season. There is almost zero chance the Vikings bring him back.
ILB Jordan Hicks
I respect what Hicks was able to do in 2023, turning in another great year in run defense and recovering from a leg-threatening injury so fast. Unfortunately for him, his age is getting up there and he’s still a liability in coverage. There will be other younger options on the market to pair Pace Jr. with, though I wouldn’t criticize bringing him back on a cheap deal.
G Dalton Risner
Risner’s play is like a double-edged sword; he’s fantastic in pass protection, but consistently fails to create openings in the run game. While his addition was a boon to the team’s pass protection, it is imperative to fix the run game. We cannot rob Peter to pay Paul, even if Paul is the head coach’s far preferred option.
HB Cam Akers
I’ve seen discourse that many want Akers back on the 2024 roster, and I just don’t see it. The Rams gave up on him one week into the 2023 season… one week! They preferred going with unknowns at HB (Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers) than him, and while Akers did show a bit more burst than Mattison, it is apparent he is a below average running back… who will be returning from a second busted Achilles. No thanks.
QB Josh Dobbs
I was open to Dobbs returning as a backup QB even after he was benched, but seeing Mullens operate the offense at a much higher level alongside O’Connell’s inability to take advantage of Dobbs’ God-given skills, it doesn’t make sense to bring him back. Still, on the right offense he is the perfect “pick me up” backup QB who can steal a game or two… but also trainwreck a game just as easily.
DL Jonathan Bullard / DL Sheldon Day / DL James Lynch
Finding a run-stopping only 3-4 DE like these guys isn’t hard to do, and any can be brought back at the veteran minimum if needed.
WR KJ Osborn
Osborn was given a golden opportunity in 2023 with Thielen’s release – he was handed the #2 WR spot and was in a position to produce, even with Addison breathing down his neck. While the rookie exploded and did eventually begin to play more snaps, Osborn had a chance in the 7 weeks Jefferson was out to produce and prove himself. He did not, as he was one of the NFL’s least efficient WRs and his drop rate skyrocketed to 13%. His career arc has been bizarre, ranging from 0 catches his rookie year followed by a fabulous second year, a mildly disappointing third year, and a flat-out bad fourth year. While I suspect the drops are an aberration, his inability to separate is not.
ED DJ Wonnum
One of the more controversial Vikings players based upon his sack total versus the efficiency numbers, I’ve always been bearish on him. I will let him hit the FA market and watch another team overpay him (I bet he gets $8-10M a year). I will be adding several edge rushers in his place who should provide pressure at a much higher rate.
K Greg Joseph
I wouldn’t rule out bringing him back on the vet minimum after a decent 2023 campaign, but I am looking to upgrade the position.
Trades
No trades! We don’t have many tradeable assets outside of the premier assets, and this roster isn’t in position to be moving draft capital for veterans.
Cap Space: $53.2M
Free Agent Signings
Salary estimates come from Spotrac, OverTheCap, and PFF projections
G Robert Hunt – 4 years, $60M total, $35M guaranteed
I thought long and hard about which free agents to sign, and I really wanted to land one of the big fish, but the likes of Justin Madubuike, Josh Allen, and Christian Wilkins are likely to be franchise-tagged or whisked away by a team with more cap space. Instead, I’ve decided to focus on adding one major piece to the offense – a stud guard. Hunt been a great blocker in both the passing game and running game and is in the prime of his career, and the goal is to have him solid the interior of the OL so the run game can at least thrive running to the left. Penalties are a concern as he had 28 his first 3 seasons, but just 2 last year.
ILB Frankie Luvu – 3 years, $30M total
Luvu is the exact type of linebacker that Flores covets – he has the bigger size (6’3” 236 lbs) to pair with the smaller Ivan Pace and is a threatening pass rusher (43 pressures, 12.5 sacks the past two years). He’s a force to be reckoned with in the run game, and is also passable in coverage (9 deflections the past 2 years). The one concern is missed tackles, but the 28 year old has been a top notch ILB the past couple years and it’s possible his play could take another step forward under Flores.
CB Adoree’ Jackson – 3 years, $21M
The CB position has been overdrafted by this team for years now, and we can’t afford to blow another 1st/2nd rounder on the position despite not having anything close to a #1 CB on the roster. Instead I’ll take a gamble on Jackson. This contract will essentially function as a one year deal with two option years, as Jackson will be given a chance to rebound from a horrible 2023 campaign. His previous seasons in New York in 2021/22 were fantastic, allowing just 680 yards in coverage over 1400 total snaps. While he’s undersized (5’11” 185 lbs), he’s consistently been better on the outside rather than in the slot, so this experiment would allow Murphy to handle the slot more often.
OLB Andrew Van Ginkel – 2 years, $13M
A former Flores draft pick in Miami, Van Ginkel just had an incredible year with a 91.1 PFF grade and a whopping 53 pressures and 6 sacks despite being a rotational player half the season. He will already be 29 by the team the year starts, which I anticipate will limit his total contract and he’s a fit only in 3-4 defenses. He will fill the DJ Wonnum spot nicely.
QB Jacoby Brissett – 2 years, $13M
It goes without saying that with Kirk gone, the Vikings need a bridge QB or at least a top notch backup. Brissett can fill that role and mesh with O’Connell’s offense he was one of their top targets before acquiring Dobbs. Brissett has settled down into being a pocket passer and the strong-armed backup had some disappointing tenures in Indy and Miami, but most recently played quite well in Cleveland (better than Watson and Mayfield's last year!), earning a 82.6 PFF rating and cracking 7.0 Y/A. He showed chemistry with Amari Cooper and has the arm to threaten defenses downfield, and has the mobility to run for a first down while not at the cost of always thinking about running. While I’m unsure if Brissett can hold off a rookie for an entire year, he fits this offense the most out of the top options on the market.
S CJ Gardner-Johnson – 1 year, $5.5M
I just couldn’t help myself! While the Vikings could be totally fine without this addition, I have the cap space and I love the upside CJGJ has. Injuries ruined his 2023 season with the Lions, but when healthy CJGJ operates as a safety/slot CB/LB and his been consistently good in coverage. While Metellus fills this role currently, CJGJ is the better CB while Metellus is the better LB. So my proposition here is that Metellus moves from third safety to SS while CJGJ is the default slot CB, then on plays when a third LB is needed Metellus moves there and CJGJ takes the SS role. This will not only bolster the S depth, but also the CB role as now Blackmon or Murphy don’t have to be every-down players. But I wouldn’t blame Flores if he wants to try Theo Jackson in this role and save the team $5.5M.
NFL Draft
As usual, I need to give a disclaimer here about the draft portion. At the current moment I do not have a great grasp on which prospects will go in which ranges, and in a couple months' time this will likely look wrong, but I'm going to do it anyways because I love mock drafts. This time around I’m using the Pro Football Network mock draft simulator.
IMPORTANT: The takeaway should be the positions I draft, not the players themselves.
Pick 1-17: ED Jared Verse (traded down from #11 and acquired pick 2-49)
Adding another edge rusher to pair with Hunter is tantamount to getting this defense to another level. Whether it be Dallas Turner, Laiatu Latu (if medically cleared), or Verse, I would gladly take any of them after moving down to acquire more capital.
Pick 1-32: QB JJ McCarthy (traded up from #42 for 2025 3rd and 2024 5th picks)
I can justify moving up for a QB at a price of this magnitude, but not one requiring multiple first round picks. There is no need to panic and take a QB because they must, as this draft class has plenty of justifiable options. I like McCarthy’s tools but he needs time to develop, and I think O’Connell can mold him into what he wants him to be. Moving up for the 5th year option at the price of a 2025 3rd is worth it in my opinion (I anticipate we get a comp 3rd for Cousins in 2025).
Pick 2-49: NT T’Vondre Sweat
Let’s keep filling up those trenches! Sweat is a beastly nose tackle around 360 pounds who isn’t just a one dimensional run stuffer. While his sack totals leave much to be desired, he pushes interior OL around and creates opportunities for the other pass rushers to notch a sack. I considered signing a nose tackle like DJ Reader in free agency, but why not attempt to develop the next version of him under Flores’ tutelage?
Pick 4-129: C Beaux Limmer
I opted to keep Bradbury as he’s on an affordable deal, but I think it’s imperative to develop a potential replacement behind him. I’ve heard good things about Limmer so far in the draft process.
Pick 5-164: ED Austin Booker
I’m unfamiliar with most of the names at this point in the draft, but I liked Booker’s profile. He was a one-year starter at Kansas who had 12 TFL and 8 sacks, and has a 6’6” 240 lbs body to work with. I’d like to have another developmental edge to compete with Andre Carter II.
Pick 6-178: HB Ray Davis
I wasn’t looking to go a third straight year spending a Day 3 pick on a HB, but Davis was the best guy available, and I didn’t add a true competitor to Ty Chandler. Davis has been around college football a long time but has been fairly productive when healthy.
Pick 6-#: Traded for a 2025 5th
I wanted to recoup some 2025 draft capital, so I did just that.
Pick 7-252: DE Marcus Harris (traded down from 7-224 for 2 7ths)
This is the point where you take the next Ivan Pace Jr/Andre Carter II with these late 7th rounders. Harris had a strong senior year but is in a tweener spot at 6’2” 270 lbs. I’ll have him put on weight and try out being a 3-4 DE.
Pick 7-255: CB Andru Phillips
He’s far higher on my draft board than this, so I’ll pull the trigger on a borderline CB prospect. While he’s yet another undersized CB on the roster, Phillips will likely start on the PS and potentially could work his way into becoming a slot CB – similar to how another Kentucky CB in Carrington Valentine became a starter this year despite being a late pick.
Post-Draft Signings
WR Mack Hollins – vet minimum
I suspect O’Connell wants to add a strong blocking WR to the team as he toyed with N’Keal Harry. Hollins is a quality blocker and had a great 2022 season with a 57/640/4 line, but then faded into obscurity in Atlanta’s offense. He’s also a quality redzone threat with his 6’4” size.
DE Neville Gallimore – 2 years, $7M
The former third round pick had a disappointing tenure in Dallas as a 3 tech, and I will attempt to move him to 3-4 DE as his 6’2” 302 lbs size fits into that archetype. He’s been able to provide a bit of pressure, which is more than what our past DEs have been able to. I would still give Jaquelin Roy every chance to pass him up, however.
HB Ty Johnson – vet minimum
I’ve opted to hand the HB job back to Ty Chandler and will keep Mattison around because of his contract. Johnson is a decent runner with a good career 4.4 YPC, can operate as a passing down back, and is a good enough pass blocker. This can make him a weapon on third downs to both protect and also be a threat to catch passes for first downs.
K Brandon McManus - 2 years, $5M
I've found my upgrade at kicker. McManus is more accurate than Joseph and has similar range.
Other players I considered signing:
NT DJ Reader is a beast, but is 30 years old and coming off surgery. Landing a complete DL like him would be ideal, but I can’t justify the move with his age and pricetag where it is.
OLB Kyle Van Noy is another perfect fit for Flores’ scheme and was hyper-productive with the Ravens, creating pressures at a far higher rate than DJ Wonnum. While already 34 years old, he’d make for a great rotational OLB but I like Van Ginkel’s fit better.
OLB Yetur Gross-Matos is a 2nd round bust from the Panthers, but I still think he has untapped upside. However, the better fits in Flores’ scheme alongside gambling on an abject bust isn’t wise.
C Coleman Shelton would be an upgrade from Bradbury as he was part of McVay’s revamped run game, but I anticipate the Rams are going to pay up to get their OL back together. They could franchise tag another option in G Kevin Dotson.
I thought about an extension for FS Camryn Bynum, but it would actually decrease our current cap number, so I’d prefer to wait for the 2025 offseason to work on that. I don’t think his pricetag will dramatically increase in that time.
*Alternative Options I considered
Add a HB in lieu of adding Gardner-Johnson
Take a different DT than Sweat, like Darius Robinson or one of the other IDL prospects
Finally, here's what the roster ends up looking like:
And so that concludes another Offseason Guide. The roster is in a curious spot with $46.8M dead, but long-term cap flexibility has been achieved. Young talent has been ended, and the defense finally has a path to becoming a top 10 unit, at least in the future. The downgrade at QB will limit the team's upside, but will McCarthy take over in 2025? Or heck, if the roster clicks and looks ready to go for it in 2025, there is cap space to go land another starting QB if we want deja vu all over again... so I suppose the key term here is "flexibility".
What do you think? Let me know what you might tweak and I hope you enjoyed the article!
I've tried every strategy there is at this point, so I'm going to avoid the extreme plans this time around. I also found it fascinating to see what I opted to do with Kirk and Hunter every year, and the free agents... yeah, I've been demanding we add a guard and a corner every year. And guess what? We'll be doing that again this year!
This year's plan is somewhat on the "retooling" side of things, but is really more on the side of adding young talent since there aren't a whole lot of veterans to shed in the first place. Here is our starting point:
$28M of cap room and there will be ways to increase that, as always. Let's begin:
Releases / Cuts
SS Harrison Smith – Saves $11.38M, leaves $7.83M dead
Smith has been one of my favorite Vikings to watch in my 16 or so years of watching the team, but his time is up. Smith’s effectiveness plummeted to that of an average safety in 2023, and with Flores’ ability to get so much from Metellus and Bynum, it’s better to trust Smith’s spot to a younger safety. I hope Smith can go on and finish his career like Eric Weddle (winning a Super Bowl at age 36 as a starting safety).
DE Dean Lowry – Saves $4.48M, leaves $0M dead
This was a bad move from the beginning, which was something I saw coming a mile away the moment he was signed. A past-his-prime DE who got benched the previous year who can’t stop the run or rush the passer, who is surprised he couldn’t do either here? Thankfully there is no dead money left on his deal, so this is an easy move.
Restructures
None! There is no need for any restructures with the way I’ve outfitted the roster, so there is no need to push money down the road. This keeps the cap open for more spending next year.
Extensions
WR Justin Jefferson – 4 years, $136M total, $70M guaranteed ($34M per year) (saves about $9M of 2024 cap)
As I've done in past years, here is a hypothetical way to structure the deal:
Similar to last year’s plan, I am giving Jefferson the money he wants – not quite the APY of the “highest non-QB in football”, but the guaranteed money is up there with the big names. I suspect Jefferson will sign a shorter deal (3/4 years) so that he can get another big money deal at the end / or near the end of this one. I know some are leery of paying a WR this kind of money, but he’s the best WR in the game and in his prime, I will pay up for that unless another team offers a ridiculous haul in a trade.
DL Harrison Phillips – 2 years, $18M total, $7M guaranteed (saves about $3M of 2024 cap)
Phillips overachieved his initial deal and is worthy of reupping at a reasonable rate. He’s a great run stuffer and a leader in the locker room, but his inability to provide any kind of pressure is why he won’t be earning any more than this. This lowers his 2024 cap and locks him in to 2025 and an option for 2026.
Re-signing internal free agents
ED Danielle Hunter – 3 years, $75M total, $50M guaranteed
I went back and forth on this contract, but after looking at the estimates that Spotrac, OverTheCap, and PFF were giving me, I am bringing back Hunter at $25M a year with two years guaranteed. For the rate he played at under Flores, he is worth that money for his age 30 and 31 seasons. He is the dynamo that powers the defense and if it’s down to bringing back either him or Kirk, to me the answer is easy – it’s Hunter. More depth is coming at edge, as running it back with just him and a bunch of filler (like Wonnum) would not be a wise plan. This deal would very likely be restructured in 2025 to lower his cap hit down.
T David Quessenberry and T Oli Udoh – veteran minimum
These two have filled in quite well for Darrisaw and O’Neill when needed the past two years, and I will opt to bring them back. Udoh’s injury shouldn’t affect his 2024 status.
WR Brandon Powell – veteran minimum
When he did get on the field, Powell showed burst and got open consistently and didn’t drop passes like Osborn did. I have will have compete with Nailor and others for the #3 WR position.
TE Johnny Mundt – veteran minimum
After seemingly being replaced by Josh Oliver, Mundt ended up being the starting TE once Hock went down and surprisingly played decently well after a rough 2022 season. It’s enough for me to bring him back, as Hockenson will surely not be ready for at least a month into the 2024 season.
G Blake Brandel and NT Khyiris Tonga (RFAs)
I will retain these two for depth as I do not anticipate they will be claimed. Brandel will face competition as I thought his play in Ingram’s stead left a lot to be desired. Tonga was mothballed after having a big year (relatively) in 2022. Both are not guarantees to be on the 2024 opening day roster.
(ERFAs S Theo Jackson and TE Nick Muse are retained)
Players Being Let Go
QB Kirk Cousins
Several novels’ worth of text has been etched on this website, so I will spare you a long story. Shortening it, bringing back Cousins only makes sense if the roster around him is ready to win a Super Bowl right now. We are not at that point, and with the way the roster is constructed (top-heavy on offense), it is logical to shift more money to adding defensive talent and fixing the trenches. I appreciate his level of play for the time he's been with the franchise, but it is logical (for both sides) to end the relationship here.
ED Marcus Davenport
The Vikings flushed $11.3M down the toilet by signing Davenport, as his season was ruined by an injury and a setback. Not only that, but it’s been heavily rumored that Davenport gave up on the team and did not make an effort to return at the end of the season. There is almost zero chance the Vikings bring him back.
ILB Jordan Hicks
I respect what Hicks was able to do in 2023, turning in another great year in run defense and recovering from a leg-threatening injury so fast. Unfortunately for him, his age is getting up there and he’s still a liability in coverage. There will be other younger options on the market to pair Pace Jr. with, though I wouldn’t criticize bringing him back on a cheap deal.
G Dalton Risner
Risner’s play is like a double-edged sword; he’s fantastic in pass protection, but consistently fails to create openings in the run game. While his addition was a boon to the team’s pass protection, it is imperative to fix the run game. We cannot rob Peter to pay Paul, even if Paul is the head coach’s far preferred option.
HB Cam Akers
I’ve seen discourse that many want Akers back on the 2024 roster, and I just don’t see it. The Rams gave up on him one week into the 2023 season… one week! They preferred going with unknowns at HB (Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers) than him, and while Akers did show a bit more burst than Mattison, it is apparent he is a below average running back… who will be returning from a second busted Achilles. No thanks.
QB Josh Dobbs
I was open to Dobbs returning as a backup QB even after he was benched, but seeing Mullens operate the offense at a much higher level alongside O’Connell’s inability to take advantage of Dobbs’ God-given skills, it doesn’t make sense to bring him back. Still, on the right offense he is the perfect “pick me up” backup QB who can steal a game or two… but also trainwreck a game just as easily.
DL Jonathan Bullard / DL Sheldon Day / DL James Lynch
Finding a run-stopping only 3-4 DE like these guys isn’t hard to do, and any can be brought back at the veteran minimum if needed.
WR KJ Osborn
Osborn was given a golden opportunity in 2023 with Thielen’s release – he was handed the #2 WR spot and was in a position to produce, even with Addison breathing down his neck. While the rookie exploded and did eventually begin to play more snaps, Osborn had a chance in the 7 weeks Jefferson was out to produce and prove himself. He did not, as he was one of the NFL’s least efficient WRs and his drop rate skyrocketed to 13%. His career arc has been bizarre, ranging from 0 catches his rookie year followed by a fabulous second year, a mildly disappointing third year, and a flat-out bad fourth year. While I suspect the drops are an aberration, his inability to separate is not.
ED DJ Wonnum
One of the more controversial Vikings players based upon his sack total versus the efficiency numbers, I’ve always been bearish on him. I will let him hit the FA market and watch another team overpay him (I bet he gets $8-10M a year). I will be adding several edge rushers in his place who should provide pressure at a much higher rate.
K Greg Joseph
I wouldn’t rule out bringing him back on the vet minimum after a decent 2023 campaign, but I am looking to upgrade the position.
Trades
No trades! We don’t have many tradeable assets outside of the premier assets, and this roster isn’t in position to be moving draft capital for veterans.
Cap Space: $53.2M
Free Agent Signings
Salary estimates come from Spotrac, OverTheCap, and PFF projections
G Robert Hunt – 4 years, $60M total, $35M guaranteed
I thought long and hard about which free agents to sign, and I really wanted to land one of the big fish, but the likes of Justin Madubuike, Josh Allen, and Christian Wilkins are likely to be franchise-tagged or whisked away by a team with more cap space. Instead, I’ve decided to focus on adding one major piece to the offense – a stud guard. Hunt been a great blocker in both the passing game and running game and is in the prime of his career, and the goal is to have him solid the interior of the OL so the run game can at least thrive running to the left. Penalties are a concern as he had 28 his first 3 seasons, but just 2 last year.
ILB Frankie Luvu – 3 years, $30M total
Luvu is the exact type of linebacker that Flores covets – he has the bigger size (6’3” 236 lbs) to pair with the smaller Ivan Pace and is a threatening pass rusher (43 pressures, 12.5 sacks the past two years). He’s a force to be reckoned with in the run game, and is also passable in coverage (9 deflections the past 2 years). The one concern is missed tackles, but the 28 year old has been a top notch ILB the past couple years and it’s possible his play could take another step forward under Flores.
CB Adoree’ Jackson – 3 years, $21M
The CB position has been overdrafted by this team for years now, and we can’t afford to blow another 1st/2nd rounder on the position despite not having anything close to a #1 CB on the roster. Instead I’ll take a gamble on Jackson. This contract will essentially function as a one year deal with two option years, as Jackson will be given a chance to rebound from a horrible 2023 campaign. His previous seasons in New York in 2021/22 were fantastic, allowing just 680 yards in coverage over 1400 total snaps. While he’s undersized (5’11” 185 lbs), he’s consistently been better on the outside rather than in the slot, so this experiment would allow Murphy to handle the slot more often.
OLB Andrew Van Ginkel – 2 years, $13M
A former Flores draft pick in Miami, Van Ginkel just had an incredible year with a 91.1 PFF grade and a whopping 53 pressures and 6 sacks despite being a rotational player half the season. He will already be 29 by the team the year starts, which I anticipate will limit his total contract and he’s a fit only in 3-4 defenses. He will fill the DJ Wonnum spot nicely.
QB Jacoby Brissett – 2 years, $13M
It goes without saying that with Kirk gone, the Vikings need a bridge QB or at least a top notch backup. Brissett can fill that role and mesh with O’Connell’s offense he was one of their top targets before acquiring Dobbs. Brissett has settled down into being a pocket passer and the strong-armed backup had some disappointing tenures in Indy and Miami, but most recently played quite well in Cleveland (better than Watson and Mayfield's last year!), earning a 82.6 PFF rating and cracking 7.0 Y/A. He showed chemistry with Amari Cooper and has the arm to threaten defenses downfield, and has the mobility to run for a first down while not at the cost of always thinking about running. While I’m unsure if Brissett can hold off a rookie for an entire year, he fits this offense the most out of the top options on the market.
S CJ Gardner-Johnson – 1 year, $5.5M
I just couldn’t help myself! While the Vikings could be totally fine without this addition, I have the cap space and I love the upside CJGJ has. Injuries ruined his 2023 season with the Lions, but when healthy CJGJ operates as a safety/slot CB/LB and his been consistently good in coverage. While Metellus fills this role currently, CJGJ is the better CB while Metellus is the better LB. So my proposition here is that Metellus moves from third safety to SS while CJGJ is the default slot CB, then on plays when a third LB is needed Metellus moves there and CJGJ takes the SS role. This will not only bolster the S depth, but also the CB role as now Blackmon or Murphy don’t have to be every-down players. But I wouldn’t blame Flores if he wants to try Theo Jackson in this role and save the team $5.5M.
NFL Draft
As usual, I need to give a disclaimer here about the draft portion. At the current moment I do not have a great grasp on which prospects will go in which ranges, and in a couple months' time this will likely look wrong, but I'm going to do it anyways because I love mock drafts. This time around I’m using the Pro Football Network mock draft simulator.
IMPORTANT: The takeaway should be the positions I draft, not the players themselves.
Pick 1-17: ED Jared Verse (traded down from #11 and acquired pick 2-49)
Adding another edge rusher to pair with Hunter is tantamount to getting this defense to another level. Whether it be Dallas Turner, Laiatu Latu (if medically cleared), or Verse, I would gladly take any of them after moving down to acquire more capital.
Pick 1-32: QB JJ McCarthy (traded up from #42 for 2025 3rd and 2024 5th picks)
I can justify moving up for a QB at a price of this magnitude, but not one requiring multiple first round picks. There is no need to panic and take a QB because they must, as this draft class has plenty of justifiable options. I like McCarthy’s tools but he needs time to develop, and I think O’Connell can mold him into what he wants him to be. Moving up for the 5th year option at the price of a 2025 3rd is worth it in my opinion (I anticipate we get a comp 3rd for Cousins in 2025).
Pick 2-49: NT T’Vondre Sweat
Let’s keep filling up those trenches! Sweat is a beastly nose tackle around 360 pounds who isn’t just a one dimensional run stuffer. While his sack totals leave much to be desired, he pushes interior OL around and creates opportunities for the other pass rushers to notch a sack. I considered signing a nose tackle like DJ Reader in free agency, but why not attempt to develop the next version of him under Flores’ tutelage?
Pick 4-129: C Beaux Limmer
I opted to keep Bradbury as he’s on an affordable deal, but I think it’s imperative to develop a potential replacement behind him. I’ve heard good things about Limmer so far in the draft process.
Pick 5-164: ED Austin Booker
I’m unfamiliar with most of the names at this point in the draft, but I liked Booker’s profile. He was a one-year starter at Kansas who had 12 TFL and 8 sacks, and has a 6’6” 240 lbs body to work with. I’d like to have another developmental edge to compete with Andre Carter II.
Pick 6-178: HB Ray Davis
I wasn’t looking to go a third straight year spending a Day 3 pick on a HB, but Davis was the best guy available, and I didn’t add a true competitor to Ty Chandler. Davis has been around college football a long time but has been fairly productive when healthy.
Pick 6-#: Traded for a 2025 5th
I wanted to recoup some 2025 draft capital, so I did just that.
Pick 7-252: DE Marcus Harris (traded down from 7-224 for 2 7ths)
This is the point where you take the next Ivan Pace Jr/Andre Carter II with these late 7th rounders. Harris had a strong senior year but is in a tweener spot at 6’2” 270 lbs. I’ll have him put on weight and try out being a 3-4 DE.
Pick 7-255: CB Andru Phillips
He’s far higher on my draft board than this, so I’ll pull the trigger on a borderline CB prospect. While he’s yet another undersized CB on the roster, Phillips will likely start on the PS and potentially could work his way into becoming a slot CB – similar to how another Kentucky CB in Carrington Valentine became a starter this year despite being a late pick.
Post-Draft Signings
WR Mack Hollins – vet minimum
I suspect O’Connell wants to add a strong blocking WR to the team as he toyed with N’Keal Harry. Hollins is a quality blocker and had a great 2022 season with a 57/640/4 line, but then faded into obscurity in Atlanta’s offense. He’s also a quality redzone threat with his 6’4” size.
DE Neville Gallimore – 2 years, $7M
The former third round pick had a disappointing tenure in Dallas as a 3 tech, and I will attempt to move him to 3-4 DE as his 6’2” 302 lbs size fits into that archetype. He’s been able to provide a bit of pressure, which is more than what our past DEs have been able to. I would still give Jaquelin Roy every chance to pass him up, however.
HB Ty Johnson – vet minimum
I’ve opted to hand the HB job back to Ty Chandler and will keep Mattison around because of his contract. Johnson is a decent runner with a good career 4.4 YPC, can operate as a passing down back, and is a good enough pass blocker. This can make him a weapon on third downs to both protect and also be a threat to catch passes for first downs.
K Brandon McManus - 2 years, $5M
I've found my upgrade at kicker. McManus is more accurate than Joseph and has similar range.
Other players I considered signing:
NT DJ Reader is a beast, but is 30 years old and coming off surgery. Landing a complete DL like him would be ideal, but I can’t justify the move with his age and pricetag where it is.
OLB Kyle Van Noy is another perfect fit for Flores’ scheme and was hyper-productive with the Ravens, creating pressures at a far higher rate than DJ Wonnum. While already 34 years old, he’d make for a great rotational OLB but I like Van Ginkel’s fit better.
OLB Yetur Gross-Matos is a 2nd round bust from the Panthers, but I still think he has untapped upside. However, the better fits in Flores’ scheme alongside gambling on an abject bust isn’t wise.
C Coleman Shelton would be an upgrade from Bradbury as he was part of McVay’s revamped run game, but I anticipate the Rams are going to pay up to get their OL back together. They could franchise tag another option in G Kevin Dotson.
I thought about an extension for FS Camryn Bynum, but it would actually decrease our current cap number, so I’d prefer to wait for the 2025 offseason to work on that. I don’t think his pricetag will dramatically increase in that time.
*Alternative Options I considered
Add a HB in lieu of adding Gardner-Johnson
Take a different DT than Sweat, like Darius Robinson or one of the other IDL prospects
Finally, here's what the roster ends up looking like:
And so that concludes another Offseason Guide. The roster is in a curious spot with $46.8M dead, but long-term cap flexibility has been achieved. Young talent has been ended, and the defense finally has a path to becoming a top 10 unit, at least in the future. The downgrade at QB will limit the team's upside, but will McCarthy take over in 2025? Or heck, if the roster clicks and looks ready to go for it in 2025, there is cap space to go land another starting QB if we want deja vu all over again... so I suppose the key term here is "flexibility".
What do you think? Let me know what you might tweak and I hope you enjoyed the article!
I believe PFF had it around what I gave him.
... and neither is this Chris guy.