The Hardest Number to Predict
Feb 5, 2024 13:38:55 GMT -6
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Post by FSUVike on Feb 5, 2024 13:38:55 GMT -6
The White Stripes once pondered 'The Hardest Button to Button'. For me, the Hardest Number to Predict what Minnesota will do in the Draft is #42.
Before I can take a meaningful deep dive into who the Vikings might select with their 2nd Round Pick I have to make some predictions about the what the Roster will look like by late April.
This is what I'm predicting the Offseason goes like, not what I want them to do.
Cousins is getting extended at 3 years, 120 million, first two years guaranteed at 80 million with an out for the Vikings for low dead cap hit before the final year.
Hunter gets overpaid by a Team like the Chiefs or Bills.
Kwesi overpays for Chase Young and adds Andrew Van Ginkel for depth, regardless of whether they keep Wonnum or not.
1st Round Pick is Edge, either Dallas Turner or Jared Verse.
And now it gets harder to predict. I don't see a CB worth #42 that Minnesota would think is so much better than Booth or Evans or Blackmon coming out that they make the Pick. Unless they agree with me that TJ Tampa is a great fit AND he's still available.
The reality is that there are Corners available into the 4th Round that that profile as being better than Evans and Booth. So the depth of the Class and the amount of high Round Capital already spent could also factor in here.
Inside Linebacker is just not important enough in the Flores Defense to draft this high. And I think they bring Hicks back after a bounce back year. They can find a kid to groom behind him in the 4th or 5th.
So on Defense it's gotta be IDL. Murphy and Newton are long gone. Will Leonard Taylor last that long? T'Vondre Sweat doesn't make a lot of sense with Phillips. That's zero pass rush between 2 guys on plays where you only rush 4. Kris Jenkins? More pedigree than player.
For the IDL I'm settling on Darius Robinson as a 'tweener' that can play multiple positions that also has good pass rushing skills. Brandon Dorlus also. But I fear Robinson goes higher, and maybe even ends up going in the 1st Round.
The other option is to go Offense. As much as I eviscerated KOC for Addison, at least he worked out. But there's absolutely no Receiver prospect that will be available that can possibly justify picking another one here. Period. TE is not a need and doesn't have a guy you can't turn down here.
So it's Running Back, right? Nope. The pride of overpaying Mattison, the flash of Chandler and the depth of the RB Class takes this one off the Board. I don't have a 1st Round Grade on any rusher so there's not much chance some great prospect falls.
Which takes us to the Offensive Line. A Unit the entire flipping Organization seems to think is better than I do. They aren't giving up on Ingram. He went from execrable to less than average. Massive win for the FO! Kevin will predictably overvalue Risner's pass blocking over his terrible run blocking and convince KAM to keep him.
That leaves Center. Bradbury's extension has a deliberate out in it for this offseason. Did they worry about his back? Were they concerned that he wouldn't improve in pass protection?
This is the hardest part for me. Because I think Zach Frazier will likely be sitting right there for the taking. An immediate upgrade over Bradbury in the run game for sure and likely in pass protection.
Does Kevin see past his man crush on Garrett? Would Kwesi simply go BPA regardless of how much O'Connell likes Bradbury?
Or does Flores pound the table for an IDL chess piece that he can move around?
My prediction is that it's one of Brandon Dorlus, Kris Jenkins and Zach Frazier. Of the 3 Jenkins is the one I think doesn't contribute much as a Rookie. Good ceiling but hasn't really been consistent producing pressure so far.
The other popular pick here will be JJ McCarthy. Personally, I only do this if I already traded back some in the 1st to add another Day 2 selection. You can trade back and still get Latu if Turner and Verse are both gone. Or Byron Murphy/Jer'Zhan Newton at IDL. Which then puts Edge in play for #42 with risers like Adisa Isaac and Austin Booker in play. Or a guy like Chris Braswell that may have dinged his stock slightly at the Senior Bowl. Or Marshawn Kneeland.
My guess is Jenkins at #42 with Kwesi trusting pedigree and ceiling over production. But I'm not very confident with that prediction.
Players Available versus Positions of Need helps narrow down who Minnesota might pick with #42, but it's still far from easy to guess who they will select. Who are the guys and what are the positions you believe will be in play?
Before I can take a meaningful deep dive into who the Vikings might select with their 2nd Round Pick I have to make some predictions about the what the Roster will look like by late April.
This is what I'm predicting the Offseason goes like, not what I want them to do.
Cousins is getting extended at 3 years, 120 million, first two years guaranteed at 80 million with an out for the Vikings for low dead cap hit before the final year.
Hunter gets overpaid by a Team like the Chiefs or Bills.
Kwesi overpays for Chase Young and adds Andrew Van Ginkel for depth, regardless of whether they keep Wonnum or not.
1st Round Pick is Edge, either Dallas Turner or Jared Verse.
And now it gets harder to predict. I don't see a CB worth #42 that Minnesota would think is so much better than Booth or Evans or Blackmon coming out that they make the Pick. Unless they agree with me that TJ Tampa is a great fit AND he's still available.
The reality is that there are Corners available into the 4th Round that that profile as being better than Evans and Booth. So the depth of the Class and the amount of high Round Capital already spent could also factor in here.
Inside Linebacker is just not important enough in the Flores Defense to draft this high. And I think they bring Hicks back after a bounce back year. They can find a kid to groom behind him in the 4th or 5th.
So on Defense it's gotta be IDL. Murphy and Newton are long gone. Will Leonard Taylor last that long? T'Vondre Sweat doesn't make a lot of sense with Phillips. That's zero pass rush between 2 guys on plays where you only rush 4. Kris Jenkins? More pedigree than player.
For the IDL I'm settling on Darius Robinson as a 'tweener' that can play multiple positions that also has good pass rushing skills. Brandon Dorlus also. But I fear Robinson goes higher, and maybe even ends up going in the 1st Round.
The other option is to go Offense. As much as I eviscerated KOC for Addison, at least he worked out. But there's absolutely no Receiver prospect that will be available that can possibly justify picking another one here. Period. TE is not a need and doesn't have a guy you can't turn down here.
So it's Running Back, right? Nope. The pride of overpaying Mattison, the flash of Chandler and the depth of the RB Class takes this one off the Board. I don't have a 1st Round Grade on any rusher so there's not much chance some great prospect falls.
Which takes us to the Offensive Line. A Unit the entire flipping Organization seems to think is better than I do. They aren't giving up on Ingram. He went from execrable to less than average. Massive win for the FO! Kevin will predictably overvalue Risner's pass blocking over his terrible run blocking and convince KAM to keep him.
That leaves Center. Bradbury's extension has a deliberate out in it for this offseason. Did they worry about his back? Were they concerned that he wouldn't improve in pass protection?
This is the hardest part for me. Because I think Zach Frazier will likely be sitting right there for the taking. An immediate upgrade over Bradbury in the run game for sure and likely in pass protection.
Does Kevin see past his man crush on Garrett? Would Kwesi simply go BPA regardless of how much O'Connell likes Bradbury?
Or does Flores pound the table for an IDL chess piece that he can move around?
My prediction is that it's one of Brandon Dorlus, Kris Jenkins and Zach Frazier. Of the 3 Jenkins is the one I think doesn't contribute much as a Rookie. Good ceiling but hasn't really been consistent producing pressure so far.
The other popular pick here will be JJ McCarthy. Personally, I only do this if I already traded back some in the 1st to add another Day 2 selection. You can trade back and still get Latu if Turner and Verse are both gone. Or Byron Murphy/Jer'Zhan Newton at IDL. Which then puts Edge in play for #42 with risers like Adisa Isaac and Austin Booker in play. Or a guy like Chris Braswell that may have dinged his stock slightly at the Senior Bowl. Or Marshawn Kneeland.
My guess is Jenkins at #42 with Kwesi trusting pedigree and ceiling over production. But I'm not very confident with that prediction.
Players Available versus Positions of Need helps narrow down who Minnesota might pick with #42, but it's still far from easy to guess who they will select. Who are the guys and what are the positions you believe will be in play?
... and neither is this Chris guy.