FSUVike's Offseason Plan #2-QBOTF

Why don’t we have a look at what all three of them say about a possible trade up for the Vikings to the No. 3 spot? With each model we’ll toss in the 2024 first-round pick, a 2024 second-round pick and an estimated 18th overall pick in 2025 and see how it comes out.

Jimmy Johnson model

MN 11th pick — 1250

MN 42nd pick — 480

MN estimated 2025 pick — 900

NE 3rd pick — 2200

Difference: Vikings overpay by 430 points, or the equal of the 47th overall pick

Rich Hill model

MN 11th pick — 358

MN 42nd pick — 142

MN estimated 2025 pick — 287

NE 3rd pick — 514

Difference: Vikings overpay by 273 points, or the equal of the 20th overall pick

Fitzgerald- Spielberger model

MN 11th pick — 1785

MN 42nd pick — 1106

MN estimated 2025 pick — 1535

NE 3rd pick — 2443

Difference: 1938, or the equal of the 8th overall pick.

It’s clear that the Rich Hill and Fitzgerald-Spielberger models view the price tag of an all-in trade up by the Vikings as giving up much more than Johnson’s chart. That could be because Johnson weighed the top draft picks heavier. That may be an “obsolete” view but there could be a common sense element that factored for the types of players teams usually acquire with trades up to the top i.e. quarterbacks.

Making a trade to the top with lots of competition and a quarterback in the mix guarantees that a deal to get from No. 11 to No. 3 will not be a technical “win” for the Vikings. Everyone’s price increased when San Francisco set the standard by trading three first-round picks and a third-rounder to Miami in 2021 to move up from No. 12 but even if draft charts hand out a serious L to the team making the big swing the W comes in a different form if that quarterback works out: Surplus value.

Next year there are 12 quarterbacks schedule to make $40 million per year or more and a contract extension for Detroit’s Jared Goff will add him to the list. Last year’s No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young will have four seasons of cap hits under $13 million. That’s an entire winning window of $27 million in surplus value versus a veteran quarterback. What can you get with $27 million? That’s Joey Bosa’s salary. That’s more than veteran cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Darius Slay made combined. That’s an entire interior offensive line.

Does that balance out giving up obscene amounts of draft capital? That depends on the acquisition and development of talent around the quarterback. The 49ers were able to survive Trey Lance falling short of expectations because they had a foundation from hitting on draft picks like Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa and George Kittle and were able to acquire Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey and Javon Hargrave via trade or free agency.

In the Vikings’ case, they have the start with Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson and Brian O’Neill on the offensive side and lots of work to be done defensively. With almost nothing in the pipeline on the defensive line and needs at linebacker and cornerback still, would it be too difficult to make up the gap left by dealing the picks? Possibly but the Vikings would have multiple years to develop players under defensive coordinator Brian Flores and in recent years offense has correlated much more to reaching the Super Bowl than defense, as shown by this chart by SumerSports’ Tej Seth.



If the quarterback works out, the Vikings could figure out the defensive part along the way, particularly with teams who are out of the running always selling off talent at the deadline.

Of course, the trouble comes if the QB doesn’t work out. Carolina is in trouble if Young fails after trading up last year. In the short term Chicago survived picking Mitch Trubisky (they only moved up one spot but still gave up several draft picks) but their roster eventually collapsed. The Jets took years to build their roster again after moving up for Sam Darnold. Some clubs recovered like Washington, who made the playoffs in 2015 after giving up the farm to take Robert Griffith III in 2012 and Arizona, whose pick (Josh Rosen) was so bad they took Kyler Murray No. 1 the next season.

The Vikings might not feel like they have time to miss, even if their offensive supporting cast is young. But if they are are afraid to take a chance they might miss an opportunity to take another quarterback anyway or end up in the same conundrum as the last six years with all the same roster issues without the surplus cap space to fix them.

Travis… I am growing more and more skeptical of trading up. Unlike San Francisco, I don’t think the Vikings will be as quick to “bounce back” from a miscalculation of their QB of choice in that scenario (presumably, Daniels or Maye if we believe the majority of mock drafts). I think that we should take the best QB we can without sacrificing a first round pick next year, how ever that is accomplished; we can always try again next year. If we lose future draft capital AND the 2024 QB pick is a bust? That will be the Wilfs worst nightmare. Which do you prefer? Trade up or stand pat/trade down, as long as there is a 2024 QB drafted that is a true shot at finding the franchise QB?

You’re right that the risk is enormous. Historically speaking it’s very difficult to make an argument for trading up if guys like Nix, McCarthy and/or Penix Jr. are actually first-round prospects. Which QBs are going to work out is the hardest thing in sports to predict. In 2020 the first five QBs all hit and then in 2021 only one of the five is going to sign a second contract with their team. In 2018 there were two superstars and they were the third and fifth QBs taken and then in 2019 only the first guy was good.

But if the Vikings only feel that one of the top three is worth it in this class then they have no other option and they’ll just have to throw caution to the wind and go for it (if there’s a trade-up opportunity).

Personally I’d trade up for Drake Maye and otherwise just roll with Nix at No. 11 if they like him.