FSUVike's Offseason Plan #2-QBOTF
Jan 29, 2024 14:24:07 GMT -6
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Funkytown, Jor-El, and 3 more like this
Post by FSUVike on Jan 29, 2024 14:24:07 GMT -6
Plan #2. The Vikings don't retain Cousins and go All In to 'get their guy'.
As with the last exercise, I want to see what the ceiling is for Minnesota in a given scenario. In that first exercise I looked at what extending Couins and Hunter would look like when paired with the expected JJ extension.
That offseason centered around landing a true Tier 1 Free Agent, which turned out to be Christian Wilkins. Even combined with drafting an immediate Starter at Edge in the 1st and an IOL Starter in the 2nd, I was hard pressed to envision a ceiling higher than a loss in the NFCCG as the best case scenario. Why? Because the CB Room is amongst the least talented in the NFL.
In this exercise Kwesi succeeds where he failed last year: he moves way up to get the coveted QBOTF.
I can't imagine a scenario where the Bears trade with the Vikings that doesn't include something ludicrous like sending them Jefferson. And I'm not trading up to #3 for Jayden Daniels. He's barely a Top 12 prospect to me.
So the target is the Washington Commanders at #2 to acquire Drake Maye. Despite the Offensive Collapse he orchestrated last night in San Francisco, Ben Johnson will be named the Head Coach of the Commanders in the next few days. I'm not sure why he'd want the job if it doesn't come with the opportunity to draft a Franchise QB. But for the sake of this exercise, Washington's new GM, perhaps under a hex from 'Slick' Rick Spielman, sees too many holes on his Roster and takes Kwesi's call.
The cost is prohibitive: Minnesota's 1st & 2nd Round Picks this year, the 1st & 2nd in 2025 and the 1st in 2026. Throwing in the 2025 2nd sounds excessive, but that's the dreaded 'QB Tax' that it takes to get Washington to bite.
Even with Cousins' 28.5 mill in dead cap space and a Hunter and JJ extension Uncle still projects the Vikings to have 47.9 million to spend. Why did I extend Danielle? Continuity. He will likely be past his prime when the next window opens to truly contend, but I'm not leaving the cupboard bare on Defense with so little Draft Capital for the next few years.
So let's go shopping. First up is the only Tier 1 FA, Justin Madubuike, arguably the 3rd best Player on the field for either Team in the AFCCG. He's just entering his prime at age 26. Which means he can be a central piece of a Contender is 2026. 4 years at 92 million.
After the signing bonus and guarantee parts are sorted out Kwesi still has just under 27 million (he needs to save 5 for the Draft and 5 for in-season moves).
Let's bring back Hicks, Risner, Wonnum and Powell. I still have enough money to get Andrew Van Ginkel to play the Davenport role and reunite with Flores. He's about a year younger than Hunter, so probably simply depth when the window opens again. But he provides consistent production.
My final payout goes to Sean Murphy-Bunting. I'm hoping for a bounce back year. He's going to be 27 going into next season. He's got the size that the rest of the CB Unit lacks and provides more upside than Joejuan Williams while hopefully allowing one of Blackmon/Booth/Evans plus a Rookie to yield 1 League Average CB2.
In the Draft I'm targeting both Lines. At #108 I look for Ty Davis or Braden Fiske or Nazir Stackhouse or Darius Robinson for IDL. They do different things. Stackhouse is a pure NT that will eventually replace Phillips if he develops. Fiske is more of a pass rushing specialist. Robinson is more of a 5T that can also kick out to Edge and provides Flores with another piece to move around. Davis is the better rounded between run stopping and pass rushing. Several of them will be available.
With my late 4th I'm taking Drake Nugent, Michigan Center. The aggregator has him much lower than both PFN (127) and PFF (134). Michigan runs O'Connell's preferred run blocking scheme to a T. If I can snag any of Nugent (C), Zinter (OG), Keegan (OG) or Henderson (OT but projects to Guard), it's a no-brainer for me. I might even let Bradbury walk and roll with Schlottmann & Nugent until Drake is fully ready.
In the 5th I can add fiesty CBs like Kamal Hadden or Cam Hart. And hyper productive RBs like Cory Schrader from Missouri or Tyrone Tracy from Purdue. Or I could look at bigger ILB prospects to groom under Hicks like Trevin Wallace, Tyrice Knight, Tommy Eichenberg or Curtis Jacobs.
This is also the range where Keegan and Henderson can be tabbed. Or I could look at a WR4 prospect to supplant Nailor.
And it's possible one of the guys I've listed is still on the board with the higher of the 6th Round picks.
I'm purposely targeting roles where it has traditionally been easier to find contributors in the 4th & 5th versus premium roles. So no Edges, no QBs, no TEs (not a perceived need to me), no OTs. IDL, IOL, ILB, RB2, WR4. These are my targets. And you can get legit depth at those positions in this Draft.
So now the Vikings have their QBOTF in Drake Maye, who starts on Day 1. Mullens and Hall back him up.
Maye is behind an O-Line with continuity but also better depth if you can grab 1 or 2 of the Michigan kids. A 1,000+ yard Back in college is insurance for Chandler/Mattison. The Offense will take a step back as Maye learns and grows, but it should still be at least average in Scoring and potentially better at TOP if a drafted O-Lineman beats out a Starter (here's looking at you, Garrett). Powell provides stability at WR3 while Nailor hopefully gets pushed down the depth chart since he can't stay healthy.
And the Defense is inarguably better. No OC can find a way to double both Hunter & Madubuike. Van Ginkel and Wonnum provide reliable depth. There's a Rookie challenging Tonga & Roy for snaps. A big kid with upside learning behind Hicks.
Alas, just as in my first exercise, I just can't fix the Corners. Murphy is a CB2 at best and likely just a Nickel CB. Murphy-Bunting is a CB2 if he has a rebound year. And that's a big if. But you do have a Rookie with the same type of upside that Evans once had. And Blackmon.
And the Safeties remain a strength on this Defense even without Harrison Smith. Plus Flores cooking up more Breaking Bad in his offseason Lab to drive OCs crazy.
The ceiling in Year 1 of Drake Maye, QBOTF, is contending for the final Playoff spot. In 2025 there's more money to spend and the ceiling becomes NFC North.
But in 2026 the Vikings need to be legit Superbowl Contenders. And I'm not seeing it even if Maye is exactly who I project him to be. Why? Without 1sts in 2025 & 2026 coupled with no 2nd in 2025 Kwesi has to either find a Hunter-esque hit in the 3rd or 4th Rounds or buy his pass rush from the Edge in Free Agency. Either way it's a risky process as Hunter will likely be declining, Van Ginkel will have aged into depth only, and now you're needing Carter II to produce or spend big money on a guy that likely is either injury prone or has another reason for not getting resigned by his Team.
And Minnesota still has bad Corners. I think it's more likely that they could find an aging veteran that provides stability ala Stephon Gilmore. But the Vikings will still be vulnerable against the best WRs, which is what you face in the Playoffs.
So that's it. Mortgage the future, actually hit on your QBOTF. And don't win it all before you lose the benefit of the Rookie Contract. All while having to spend big in Free Agency to keep a sustained pass rush and adequate to above average Corner play.
The only way this works is if the Vikings somehow become awesome at developing Players drafted outside of the Top 100. Or they hit on a high percentage of their Free Agents. I've seen no evidence this organization can do either thing. And now JJ will be eying a move to a legit Contender.
So no, I don't endorse this scenario at all. Too many holes. That will likely lead to them wasting a Rookie QB Contract.
For sh*ts & Giggles, here's the Minnesota Vikings 2024 Roster:
QB: Drake Maye, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall
RB: Ty Chandler, Rookie (Cory Schrader or Tyrone Tracy), Alexander Mattison
WR: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Brandon Powell, Rookie (Malik Washington or Luke McCaffrey)
TE:.TJ Hockenson, Josh Oliver, Johnny Mundt, Nick Muse
O-Line: Christian Darrisaw, Dalton Risner, Garrett Bradbury, Ed Ingram, Brian O’Neill, Blake Brandel, Oli Udoh, Austin Schlottmann, Rookie (Drake Nugent or Zak Zinter or Trevor Keegan or LaDarius Henderson)
Edge: Danielle Hunter, Andrew Van Ginkel, DJ Wonnum, Patrick Jones II, Andre Carter II
IDL: Justin Madubuike, Harrison Phillips, Jaquelin Roy, Rookie (Ty Watts or Braden Fiske or Nazir Stackhouse), Khyiris Tonga
ILB: Ivan Pace, Jr., Jordan Hicks, Troy Dye (Special Teams Ace), Rookie (Tommy Eichenberg or Trevin Wallace)
CB: Byron Murphy II, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Mekhi Blackmon, Rookie (Kamal Hadden or Cam Hart), Andrew Booth Jr, Akayleb Evans
S: Cam Bynum, Josh Metellus, Theo Jackson, Lewis Cine, Jay Ward
That's what I've come up with. You can snag Snead to be CB1 instead and maybe have enough for say Bryce Huff for situational pass rushing, but now you're back to having zero consistent pressure from the Interior. Any way you slice it there's just too many holes.
What say you?
As with the last exercise, I want to see what the ceiling is for Minnesota in a given scenario. In that first exercise I looked at what extending Couins and Hunter would look like when paired with the expected JJ extension.
That offseason centered around landing a true Tier 1 Free Agent, which turned out to be Christian Wilkins. Even combined with drafting an immediate Starter at Edge in the 1st and an IOL Starter in the 2nd, I was hard pressed to envision a ceiling higher than a loss in the NFCCG as the best case scenario. Why? Because the CB Room is amongst the least talented in the NFL.
In this exercise Kwesi succeeds where he failed last year: he moves way up to get the coveted QBOTF.
I can't imagine a scenario where the Bears trade with the Vikings that doesn't include something ludicrous like sending them Jefferson. And I'm not trading up to #3 for Jayden Daniels. He's barely a Top 12 prospect to me.
So the target is the Washington Commanders at #2 to acquire Drake Maye. Despite the Offensive Collapse he orchestrated last night in San Francisco, Ben Johnson will be named the Head Coach of the Commanders in the next few days. I'm not sure why he'd want the job if it doesn't come with the opportunity to draft a Franchise QB. But for the sake of this exercise, Washington's new GM, perhaps under a hex from 'Slick' Rick Spielman, sees too many holes on his Roster and takes Kwesi's call.
The cost is prohibitive: Minnesota's 1st & 2nd Round Picks this year, the 1st & 2nd in 2025 and the 1st in 2026. Throwing in the 2025 2nd sounds excessive, but that's the dreaded 'QB Tax' that it takes to get Washington to bite.
Even with Cousins' 28.5 mill in dead cap space and a Hunter and JJ extension Uncle still projects the Vikings to have 47.9 million to spend. Why did I extend Danielle? Continuity. He will likely be past his prime when the next window opens to truly contend, but I'm not leaving the cupboard bare on Defense with so little Draft Capital for the next few years.
So let's go shopping. First up is the only Tier 1 FA, Justin Madubuike, arguably the 3rd best Player on the field for either Team in the AFCCG. He's just entering his prime at age 26. Which means he can be a central piece of a Contender is 2026. 4 years at 92 million.
After the signing bonus and guarantee parts are sorted out Kwesi still has just under 27 million (he needs to save 5 for the Draft and 5 for in-season moves).
Let's bring back Hicks, Risner, Wonnum and Powell. I still have enough money to get Andrew Van Ginkel to play the Davenport role and reunite with Flores. He's about a year younger than Hunter, so probably simply depth when the window opens again. But he provides consistent production.
My final payout goes to Sean Murphy-Bunting. I'm hoping for a bounce back year. He's going to be 27 going into next season. He's got the size that the rest of the CB Unit lacks and provides more upside than Joejuan Williams while hopefully allowing one of Blackmon/Booth/Evans plus a Rookie to yield 1 League Average CB2.
In the Draft I'm targeting both Lines. At #108 I look for Ty Davis or Braden Fiske or Nazir Stackhouse or Darius Robinson for IDL. They do different things. Stackhouse is a pure NT that will eventually replace Phillips if he develops. Fiske is more of a pass rushing specialist. Robinson is more of a 5T that can also kick out to Edge and provides Flores with another piece to move around. Davis is the better rounded between run stopping and pass rushing. Several of them will be available.
With my late 4th I'm taking Drake Nugent, Michigan Center. The aggregator has him much lower than both PFN (127) and PFF (134). Michigan runs O'Connell's preferred run blocking scheme to a T. If I can snag any of Nugent (C), Zinter (OG), Keegan (OG) or Henderson (OT but projects to Guard), it's a no-brainer for me. I might even let Bradbury walk and roll with Schlottmann & Nugent until Drake is fully ready.
In the 5th I can add fiesty CBs like Kamal Hadden or Cam Hart. And hyper productive RBs like Cory Schrader from Missouri or Tyrone Tracy from Purdue. Or I could look at bigger ILB prospects to groom under Hicks like Trevin Wallace, Tyrice Knight, Tommy Eichenberg or Curtis Jacobs.
This is also the range where Keegan and Henderson can be tabbed. Or I could look at a WR4 prospect to supplant Nailor.
And it's possible one of the guys I've listed is still on the board with the higher of the 6th Round picks.
I'm purposely targeting roles where it has traditionally been easier to find contributors in the 4th & 5th versus premium roles. So no Edges, no QBs, no TEs (not a perceived need to me), no OTs. IDL, IOL, ILB, RB2, WR4. These are my targets. And you can get legit depth at those positions in this Draft.
So now the Vikings have their QBOTF in Drake Maye, who starts on Day 1. Mullens and Hall back him up.
Maye is behind an O-Line with continuity but also better depth if you can grab 1 or 2 of the Michigan kids. A 1,000+ yard Back in college is insurance for Chandler/Mattison. The Offense will take a step back as Maye learns and grows, but it should still be at least average in Scoring and potentially better at TOP if a drafted O-Lineman beats out a Starter (here's looking at you, Garrett). Powell provides stability at WR3 while Nailor hopefully gets pushed down the depth chart since he can't stay healthy.
And the Defense is inarguably better. No OC can find a way to double both Hunter & Madubuike. Van Ginkel and Wonnum provide reliable depth. There's a Rookie challenging Tonga & Roy for snaps. A big kid with upside learning behind Hicks.
Alas, just as in my first exercise, I just can't fix the Corners. Murphy is a CB2 at best and likely just a Nickel CB. Murphy-Bunting is a CB2 if he has a rebound year. And that's a big if. But you do have a Rookie with the same type of upside that Evans once had. And Blackmon.
And the Safeties remain a strength on this Defense even without Harrison Smith. Plus Flores cooking up more Breaking Bad in his offseason Lab to drive OCs crazy.
The ceiling in Year 1 of Drake Maye, QBOTF, is contending for the final Playoff spot. In 2025 there's more money to spend and the ceiling becomes NFC North.
But in 2026 the Vikings need to be legit Superbowl Contenders. And I'm not seeing it even if Maye is exactly who I project him to be. Why? Without 1sts in 2025 & 2026 coupled with no 2nd in 2025 Kwesi has to either find a Hunter-esque hit in the 3rd or 4th Rounds or buy his pass rush from the Edge in Free Agency. Either way it's a risky process as Hunter will likely be declining, Van Ginkel will have aged into depth only, and now you're needing Carter II to produce or spend big money on a guy that likely is either injury prone or has another reason for not getting resigned by his Team.
And Minnesota still has bad Corners. I think it's more likely that they could find an aging veteran that provides stability ala Stephon Gilmore. But the Vikings will still be vulnerable against the best WRs, which is what you face in the Playoffs.
So that's it. Mortgage the future, actually hit on your QBOTF. And don't win it all before you lose the benefit of the Rookie Contract. All while having to spend big in Free Agency to keep a sustained pass rush and adequate to above average Corner play.
The only way this works is if the Vikings somehow become awesome at developing Players drafted outside of the Top 100. Or they hit on a high percentage of their Free Agents. I've seen no evidence this organization can do either thing. And now JJ will be eying a move to a legit Contender.
So no, I don't endorse this scenario at all. Too many holes. That will likely lead to them wasting a Rookie QB Contract.
For sh*ts & Giggles, here's the Minnesota Vikings 2024 Roster:
QB: Drake Maye, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall
RB: Ty Chandler, Rookie (Cory Schrader or Tyrone Tracy), Alexander Mattison
WR: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Brandon Powell, Rookie (Malik Washington or Luke McCaffrey)
TE:.TJ Hockenson, Josh Oliver, Johnny Mundt, Nick Muse
O-Line: Christian Darrisaw, Dalton Risner, Garrett Bradbury, Ed Ingram, Brian O’Neill, Blake Brandel, Oli Udoh, Austin Schlottmann, Rookie (Drake Nugent or Zak Zinter or Trevor Keegan or LaDarius Henderson)
Edge: Danielle Hunter, Andrew Van Ginkel, DJ Wonnum, Patrick Jones II, Andre Carter II
IDL: Justin Madubuike, Harrison Phillips, Jaquelin Roy, Rookie (Ty Watts or Braden Fiske or Nazir Stackhouse), Khyiris Tonga
ILB: Ivan Pace, Jr., Jordan Hicks, Troy Dye (Special Teams Ace), Rookie (Tommy Eichenberg or Trevin Wallace)
CB: Byron Murphy II, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Mekhi Blackmon, Rookie (Kamal Hadden or Cam Hart), Andrew Booth Jr, Akayleb Evans
S: Cam Bynum, Josh Metellus, Theo Jackson, Lewis Cine, Jay Ward
That's what I've come up with. You can snag Snead to be CB1 instead and maybe have enough for say Bryce Huff for situational pass rushing, but now you're back to having zero consistent pressure from the Interior. Any way you slice it there's just too many holes.
What say you?
... and neither is this Chris guy.