The Kwesi Approach-Free Agency Predictor

I'll probably have more names to add to this thread as I've been thinking about "Tier 2" free agents lately, too, but one name that I've been looking into is LB Josey Jewell (Broncos). I've primarily been focused on teams that have a bit of cap to manage this offseason and may not want to bring back some of their players for cap reasons.

Josey Jewell
Rd 4 selection by Denver in 2018 out of Iowa (which could mean Funkytown would be on board with this signing) with good height/weight (6'2", 236, pretty muc the same size as Hicks). Jewell is 29, but won't be 30 until Christmas Day so 2024 will effectively be his "age 29" season so he hasn't quite hit any "wall" yet. He was a rotational LB in '18/'19 before earning a starting role in '20 and has played well. He did have a pectoral injury that cost him the majority of the '21 and aside from a few hip/groin things that popped-up the last 2 seasons, there isn't too much injury concern as he's played in 29 out of 34 games the last 2 yrs. Signed a 2-yr, $11m deal w/ Denver in the '22 offseason that he's lived up to: as PFF noted, "Jewell may not be great in any one facet of linebacker play, but he’s good in all of them. And a well-rounded linebacker is an asset to any defense. Jewell covers well in zone, with good spatial awareness to get proper depth, and he has the ability to come forward and blitz up the middle on occasion" (link). With Denver already spending decent LB money on Alex Singleton and drafting Drew Sanders in 2023, I don't think they bring Jewell back which means he'll probably hit free agency. If last offseason is any indication, the ILB market is pretty "soft" with Tremaine Edunds the only ILB to get anything $10m+ AAV and he can probably expect something along the lines of what DET LB Alex Anzalone received last offseason (3 yrs, $18m, $6m AAV) which is relatively close to what Hicks signed for in 2022. Jewell also played a bunch under Vance Joseph who was the Broncos HC when Denver drafted him and whom Sean Payton hired back as his DC in 2023; Joseph's scheme is an aggressive 3-4 scheme that's not too far off from what Flores runs so I could see him being a fit under Flores, too.

The only issue I could see with him is that he's worn the "green dot" for Denver and with Pace the one in Minnesota wearing the "green dot" and receiving the sideline communications, it might not fit if he wants to continue to have that role w/ a new team. Outside of that though, he's a very good veteran ILB that still should have 2-3 yrs of solid play left that won't break the bank and should allow Kwesi & O'Connell to not have to chase ILB on Day 1 or Day 2 of the 2024 Draft. If anything, they'll probably need to spend a mid-to-late Day 3 pick for depth LB that will primarily play ST in Yr 1 and hopefully develop to get decent snaps by Yr 3. A combo of Pace/Jewell as the starters with Asamoah and a rookie Day 3 LB seems like a decent 4-man ILB rotation with some depth on the Practice Squad.

Would definitely be a good fit. Really strong in the box coverage which they didn't have last year

My only argument is do either of these guys make the running game any better than what Chandler and Mattison bring. I wouldn't spend any money on RB Free agents unless they are a major upgrade. RB would be a good position to attack in the draft in round 2 if they can improve their lines in FA.

So I guess the question is how much is the term "competitive rebuild" a marketing gimmick or the truth. If there's an ownership mandate to be competitive, then I have to think the DL has to be a priority. Kwesi has prioritized flexibility in his first two off seasons, and to be fair, he had no choice, but at some point he's going to have to do more than target value signings. You can make a case in waiting a year, but we have space now and a ton of space next year. Any big signing can be done for minimal hit next year, and moves with Smith, Hunter (if extended), and JJ could open up a decent amount of additional space if needed depending on how they're structured.

I'd probably prioritize a DT that can get after the QB and spend some big money on that, extend Hunter, and then target another FA option who could be had a bit cheaper and would see a lot of 1 on 1 action and likely benefit from that. I'd still probably draft one depending on my QB selection, and I'm definitely taking one high in 2025.

I just want to focus on predicting the kinds of guys Kwesi has targeted. I do believe he takes a big swing, but we've debated that endlessly in other threads.

For RB I like Dan's suggestions. But as Legends pointed out it is moot until Kwesi gets Kevin another guy that fits the IZB scheme. No RB in and of himself shy of Barry flipping Sanders can fix this issue. Bradbury and Rsiner inarguably do not fit an Inside Zone Blocking scheme. Period.

Kwesi surely has figured that out by now. It's likely why he built such an early out into Garrett's contract and had no qualms about unloading Cleveland early. Ezra also was a terrible fit for IZB.

So I actually think Minnesota stands pat at RB in FA. Gaskins stays around for injury relief. Heck, maybe he fair catches kickoffs. Kwesi doesn't want to look foolish for overpaying Mattison also.

Snagging a Center or Left Guard in either Free Agency or the Draft will happen before the Vikings spend more money on Running Backs. And there are a metric ton of highly productive RBs that should be available in the 4th.

So NO on RBs in FA please.

One guy I could see him going after is Sean Murphy-Bunting. They “reportedly” had interest in him last year as well. Should be relatively cheap as he signed a 1 year 3.5 mill deal last year and had an average year according to PFF. Has the draft pedigree Kwesi has targeted, still not yet 27, and would continue his volume play at the position he tried last year with more competition.

I get pretty leary of RBs on second contracts... Eckler will be 29 next season and averaged 3.5/attempt. That's not exactly an improvement over what we had. Now I don't know anything about who was blocking for him in LA, but that's not exactly a ringing endorsement knowing that the run blocking here was bad and our HC didn't exactly use RBs to their strength or the line to it's capabilities. I'd rather replace Bradburry with someone that fits what KOC wants to do with that money (or draft someone) and spend a late round pick on a RB as well as bring in a couple of UDFAs and let them compete. That 5M could be better spent I think.