QB Situations in 2024
I did a QB Situations thread last year that gained a lot of traction, so let's run it back for this offseason, seeing how March is not that far away! Here is my tier list:
As before, any QB whose contract is up is assumed to hit the FA market, even if that isn't the likely outcome.
Going by each tier:
Vikings - Cousins is a FA and could have a big market to appeal to, but the Achilles injury complicates things.
Patriots - Mac Jones' good rookie season seems so far away, as he imploded this year, getting benched 3 times mid-game. Bailey Zappe has had a couple decent games in his career, but he probably competes for a backup job on another team. Rookie QB seems very likely here.
Commies - Sam Howell flopped after a promising start to the year, throwing 12 picks in their final 8 games, of which they lost every one. Jacoby Brissett is a FA and could be a bridge QB/top backup. Rookie QB seems likely here too.
Falcons - Atlanta geared up for a potential divisional title as they were finally freed from Matt Ryan's contract and build up the defense, just for the offense to implode. Ridder proved to be overmatched as a passer and not good enough of a runner to compensate, while Heinicke played below his career numbers. One of the two will likely backup a veteran QB addition (Cousins?).
Bucs - Baker Mayfield is a free agent after a surprisingly strong campaign. Now fully healthy, he is likely landing a multi-year deal unless the Bucs slap the franchise tag on him. I could see a Geno Smith type of contract for him, but anything more would be pricey for his talent level.
--Strongly Needs--
Steelers - Kenny Pickett was a disaster, but didn't get a full chance with the new OC in town before getting hurt. With even Mason Rudolph outplaying him, you would think the Steelers need to contemplate giving up on him. However, with as conservative as the franchise is, they may give him one more year.
Raiders - Vegas could opt to stay with 4th rounder Aidan O'Connell another year and bank on his progression, but I think he caps out as a high-end backup and they should search for a true franchise QB, but not force themselves into doing it this offseason.
Broncos - Once Denver cuts Wilson, they'll be eating so much dead cap that they might opt to stay with Jarrett Stidham for the 2024 season, a guy the Broncos did everything they could to land on Day 1 of free agency in March 2023. They should develop a young QB behind him in the meanwhile, as going out to sign a veteran like Cousins or Mayfield will clog their cap even further.
--50/50--
The Bears are on the fence deciding whether to take Caleb Williams at #1 or trade down and get another haul and stick with Fields. Personally I'd go Williams and trade Fields for a decent return as I don't think he will ever be a good enough passer to make the Bears offense a great unit.
--Held Back Financially--
Saints - Derek Carr had a middling season but frankly isn't worth the $37.5M per year pricetag, as his play has barely been better than Andy Dalton's with this offense in 2022. They can move on affordably over the 2025 offseason.
Browns - The Watson megadeal is going to sting next year as they have 3 straight seasons of ludicrously large $64M cap hits that they will be forced to kick down the road. Given how even an old and gray Joe Flacco has played better, this could be a Super Bowl contender with better QB play. Alas, they are in a mire of their own making.
Giants - Everyone knew the Giants blundered when they gave Daniel Jones a 4/$160M deal, but then he unexpectedly had the worst season of his career, then suffered an ACL tear. Thankfully the guaranteed money is light after 2024 so they're stuck with him for only one more season. You have to wonder which version of Jones shows up next year - the terrible one or the decent at best one? And will he lose his edge as a runner due to the ACL tear?
--Should consider a rookie--
Jets - They'll run Rodgers back in 2024 and hope for the best, but they should be making contingency plans after Wilson, Boyle, and Siemian played like garbage for them. It'd be nice to have a good backup and a potential successor.
Seahawks - Geno Smith took a step back even though they added more talent surrounding him. With the defense getting built up with several big acquisitions in the previous offseason, it is my opinion that the best way forward is to upgrade the QB position. They had 2 1sts but went CB/WR, and have went back-to-back seasons spending a 2nd on a HB. It's time to invest in a QB.
The other teams is pretty much locked into their QBs. You could make a case for Arizona, but Kyler Murray's contract is too loaded to move before 2025. The Lions and Rams spent 3rd/4th round picks on a QB behind their veterans in 2022, so that should keep them off the "consider a rookie" tier.
QB Options:
Starters
Kirk Cousins - Let's not start another debate here. He's far and away the best option out there.
Baker Mayfield - I don't trust him, but he proved this year that he is worthy of starting. Overpaying him will be a blunder.
Jimmy Garoppolo - The Raiders will cut him, presumably. It is very hard to project his market after flopping in Vegas, though he wasn't terrible by any measure. I would guess he ends up getting a low-end starter deal ($10M?).
Bridge QBs / Top Backups
Ryan Tannehill - Could start but he's at that point now where being a backup makes sense.
Jacoby Brissett - Played surprisingly well for Cleveland in 2022 and the few chances he got in 2023 he looked way better than Howell.
Tyrod Taylor - His numbers are better than expected in 5 starts this year, far better than what Daniel Jones was playing at. Even as a scrambling QB at age 35 he can still play.
Sam Darnold - Teams fawn over highly drafted guys like him and he could get another shot. The 49ers reportedly are expecting to lose him on the FA market.
Gardner Minshew - He helped keep the Colts offense going in more of a manager role compared to his Jaguars days as a high volume passer. He's an underrated option as a really good backup.
Backup QB Options
(ordered by 2023 Salary)
Marcus Mariota
Drew Lock
Jameis Winston
Tyler Huntley
Joe Flacco
Josh Dobbs (not getting a Geno Smith deal, eh?)
Carson Wentz
Mason Rudolph
Now then, let's hear your thoughts on what happens this offseason!
As before, any QB whose contract is up is assumed to hit the FA market, even if that isn't the likely outcome.
Going by each tier:
Vikings - Cousins is a FA and could have a big market to appeal to, but the Achilles injury complicates things.
Patriots - Mac Jones' good rookie season seems so far away, as he imploded this year, getting benched 3 times mid-game. Bailey Zappe has had a couple decent games in his career, but he probably competes for a backup job on another team. Rookie QB seems very likely here.
Commies - Sam Howell flopped after a promising start to the year, throwing 12 picks in their final 8 games, of which they lost every one. Jacoby Brissett is a FA and could be a bridge QB/top backup. Rookie QB seems likely here too.
Falcons - Atlanta geared up for a potential divisional title as they were finally freed from Matt Ryan's contract and build up the defense, just for the offense to implode. Ridder proved to be overmatched as a passer and not good enough of a runner to compensate, while Heinicke played below his career numbers. One of the two will likely backup a veteran QB addition (Cousins?).
Bucs - Baker Mayfield is a free agent after a surprisingly strong campaign. Now fully healthy, he is likely landing a multi-year deal unless the Bucs slap the franchise tag on him. I could see a Geno Smith type of contract for him, but anything more would be pricey for his talent level.
--Strongly Needs--
Steelers - Kenny Pickett was a disaster, but didn't get a full chance with the new OC in town before getting hurt. With even Mason Rudolph outplaying him, you would think the Steelers need to contemplate giving up on him. However, with as conservative as the franchise is, they may give him one more year.
Raiders - Vegas could opt to stay with 4th rounder Aidan O'Connell another year and bank on his progression, but I think he caps out as a high-end backup and they should search for a true franchise QB, but not force themselves into doing it this offseason.
Broncos - Once Denver cuts Wilson, they'll be eating so much dead cap that they might opt to stay with Jarrett Stidham for the 2024 season, a guy the Broncos did everything they could to land on Day 1 of free agency in March 2023. They should develop a young QB behind him in the meanwhile, as going out to sign a veteran like Cousins or Mayfield will clog their cap even further.
--50/50--
The Bears are on the fence deciding whether to take Caleb Williams at #1 or trade down and get another haul and stick with Fields. Personally I'd go Williams and trade Fields for a decent return as I don't think he will ever be a good enough passer to make the Bears offense a great unit.
--Held Back Financially--
Saints - Derek Carr had a middling season but frankly isn't worth the $37.5M per year pricetag, as his play has barely been better than Andy Dalton's with this offense in 2022. They can move on affordably over the 2025 offseason.
Browns - The Watson megadeal is going to sting next year as they have 3 straight seasons of ludicrously large $64M cap hits that they will be forced to kick down the road. Given how even an old and gray Joe Flacco has played better, this could be a Super Bowl contender with better QB play. Alas, they are in a mire of their own making.
Giants - Everyone knew the Giants blundered when they gave Daniel Jones a 4/$160M deal, but then he unexpectedly had the worst season of his career, then suffered an ACL tear. Thankfully the guaranteed money is light after 2024 so they're stuck with him for only one more season. You have to wonder which version of Jones shows up next year - the terrible one or the decent at best one? And will he lose his edge as a runner due to the ACL tear?
--Should consider a rookie--
Jets - They'll run Rodgers back in 2024 and hope for the best, but they should be making contingency plans after Wilson, Boyle, and Siemian played like garbage for them. It'd be nice to have a good backup and a potential successor.
Seahawks - Geno Smith took a step back even though they added more talent surrounding him. With the defense getting built up with several big acquisitions in the previous offseason, it is my opinion that the best way forward is to upgrade the QB position. They had 2 1sts but went CB/WR, and have went back-to-back seasons spending a 2nd on a HB. It's time to invest in a QB.
The other teams is pretty much locked into their QBs. You could make a case for Arizona, but Kyler Murray's contract is too loaded to move before 2025. The Lions and Rams spent 3rd/4th round picks on a QB behind their veterans in 2022, so that should keep them off the "consider a rookie" tier.
QB Options:
Starters
Kirk Cousins - Let's not start another debate here. He's far and away the best option out there.
Baker Mayfield - I don't trust him, but he proved this year that he is worthy of starting. Overpaying him will be a blunder.
Jimmy Garoppolo - The Raiders will cut him, presumably. It is very hard to project his market after flopping in Vegas, though he wasn't terrible by any measure. I would guess he ends up getting a low-end starter deal ($10M?).
Bridge QBs / Top Backups
Ryan Tannehill - Could start but he's at that point now where being a backup makes sense.
Jacoby Brissett - Played surprisingly well for Cleveland in 2022 and the few chances he got in 2023 he looked way better than Howell.
Tyrod Taylor - His numbers are better than expected in 5 starts this year, far better than what Daniel Jones was playing at. Even as a scrambling QB at age 35 he can still play.
Sam Darnold - Teams fawn over highly drafted guys like him and he could get another shot. The 49ers reportedly are expecting to lose him on the FA market.
Gardner Minshew - He helped keep the Colts offense going in more of a manager role compared to his Jaguars days as a high volume passer. He's an underrated option as a really good backup.
Backup QB Options
(ordered by 2023 Salary)
Marcus Mariota
Drew Lock
Jameis Winston
Tyler Huntley
Joe Flacco
Josh Dobbs (not getting a Geno Smith deal, eh?)
Carson Wentz
Mason Rudolph
Now then, let's hear your thoughts on what happens this offseason!
