What We Miss - Penix Jr.

I posted a while back some history on trade-ups for qb's and the odds you hit a superstar are about 1 in 10.   Speaking as someone who gambles those are bad odds.  You want to wager on stuff that's at least 50-50 or better.  Taking an Ix Brother (nice meme) at 11 or even 23 has a higher % chance of working out imho, in part because while I'll concede that Maye has high level physical traits, I don't see his ceiling or potential as that much higher than the Ix Bros.   So it becomes a numbers question - does spending 11 or 23 for a guy with say a 40% chance of panning out play better than spending 11,23, next year's 1 and some more stuff for a guy with maybe a 50% chance of panning out?   By panning out I mean becoming an average NFL starter, I'll leave the superstar dreaming to others (not you).  I like Penix because to me he puts the most pro-ready stuff on tape of any of these guys including Williams.  But I get there are issues, they all have issues.

But in terms of trading, if you approach it analytically as our g.m. allegedly does you wouldn't make a longshot dice roll when something that makes more sense by the numbers is there, not to mention how in strictly gambling terms that less expensive play also leaves you with more draft capital in hand that can produce more swings at various positions.  There is no way I can see KAM evaluating this situation by the numbers and coming to the conclusion that paying some king's ransom for Drake Maye is a smart play.

But all that said, they still might do it because I have no idea who's really driving the bus over at TCO and this team under the Wilfs has consistently made dumb football moves, missed good opportunities, and hired the wrong people.   So my expectations are as always, very low. 

Let's just say if they make this move which I personally think is a bad gamble, they are gambling their careers.  Drake Maye better be way more than I personally think he's going to be, because otherwise KAM/KOC will be polishing their resumes in a couple of years.  Of course, there is the caveat that ownership hates firing anyone and pretty much wants a set it and forget franchise, so they might not care.  We might live with KAM/KOC for a decade of floundering or more just like we did with Rick and Mike.   Sad times in Vikingville will be the inevitable result.  Or maybe Drake Maye is the second coming of Joe Montana, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady.  Who knows.

But I digress... the draft countdown clock is just under 33 hours, the excitement is building and it will be fun regardless.