What We Miss - Penix Jr.

I watched the game live but admittedly am not an all 22 watcher of any level of ball.

The defense did a great job and felt Flores esque just with talent! I can’t excuse his performance on talent discrepancy when he has a top 10 pick at WR, a second round tackle, a second round WR, and a 3rd round WR. The OL as a whole did get whooped but that happens sometimes. I do think Johnson being severely limited had a big impact in terms of what he brings UW and also how UM could then play defensively.

Coller has talked a lot recently about what a prospect’s elite skill/answer is. Penix’s would be his arm but if that is off what answers does he have? Not that every QB has to be dual threat necessarily. My biggest worry is his panicked decisions last night. It felt like he had at least 3 or 4 plays where he just threw the ball up/away and absolutely anything could have happened. Not making the comparison at all but gave the vibes Nick/Dobbs did with some of their “oh no” decision making. Thankfully only one was intercepted.

I don’t have the stats but have seen others point out his pressure numbers. Last night my worry was his pressure decisions.

It’s one game so it isn’t everything. But admittedly football seasons are short creating inherently small samples of games and only a select few are played against competition that could match them talent wise.

I had thought I had seen previously that he was going to the Senior Bowl. I wonder if the apparent rib injury has any impact on that.

Going into the game I think there was legitimate possibility that if he had another Texas like performance that the Vikings would’ve had to move up for him. I no longer think they would have to do so but in no way am I out on him.

I’ll trust Kwesi/KOC on the decision. I can be talked into any of the top 6. Heck the whipping boy of the 6 threw for 45 TDs and 3 INTs this season in a major conference in CFB, has no major injury history to my knowledge, and is a legitimate running threat.

Hard to tell what he will be in the NFL. He has a gum slinger mentality and trusts his WRs to make plays.

My knocks
Not as accurate as you think with his numbers. His WRs make some unbelievable adjustments to the ball

Throwing motion

Injury history and Age

I respect your analysis and view of the game first of all to make that clear and always look forward to your college prospect talk..

So your telling me Minter saved all this for the championship game? Had no film on it all year?

Harbaugh did the same thing to CJ last year and McCord this year... CJ did okay or so I hear. The question is whether Penix can grow from it. Stroud did obviously, but one does not equal the other and that's really up for scouts/front office to figure out. They are different prospects.

I'd be more concerned with how he handles a porous line, because that's a thing he might have to deal with in Minnesota or quite frankly wherever he ends up... and with his injury history that kind of scares me a bit if we use a first on him.

I do agree in that if we don't have to trade the farm for him, it's not as big of a deal. He's probably there at 11, and might be there lower so a trade down is a possibility (especially if we're high on him and McCarthy and both are there) knowing KAM or even a trade back into the first given a high 2nd round pick. So to me it comes down to who we draft. We could probably move up and get Daniels relatively cheap if he's not going 3 overall. Or we can stand pat/trade down and get one of Penix/McCarthy/Nix depending on who everyone is ultimately highest on and hope/pray/trust they can be developed. I'm admittedly skeptical on KOC at this point for that one, but I have no choice but to be all in if they go the QB route (and they should) with their pick in either round 1 or 2.

Burrow was older too but older top prospects is definitely an anomaly. I know these guys aren’t superstars(one better than the other) but look at our own division. Jordan Love and Justin Fields were both 24 this past season(Love technically turned 25 in November). So at comparable ages there are already guys with 3 or 4 years of NFL experience.

JJ McCarthy is almost a full 3 years younger than Nix and Penix. While I don’t think he’s as good of a QB as either right now, what could he be in 2-3 years? It’s a fair question. To be fair though, I expect Jayden Daniels to be fan target numero uno and he turned 23 a month ago already.

True words indeed. But I'm glad someone else mentioned CJ Stroud, because he was also dinged for being unable to beat Michigan. I'm not saying Penix is at the level of Stroud; if healthy, how do you think he compares?

The loss may keep him from rising. I think a lot of people fear something like the 2011 draft, when the pick of Cam Newton was followed by a short run on QBs with Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder. The overvaluing started after Newton...where does it start this year?

That understatement was kind of my point... One game does not write the book on Penix. If people looked at how Stroud did against Michigan, well... he probably doesn't go #2 overall. Now I'm not saying Stroud = Penix. I'm just pointing out that FSUVike has a point that the National Championship shouldn't wipe out his entire body of work. Stroud threw 2 picks in that in game and was pressured for a good chunk of it.

Harbaugh uses his pro knowledge in key college games that will be battles, and now that he's got some talent on that team, he's winning a lot of those games. I doubt that changes if he stays.

But he's not doing it with his QB play, it's his defense and running game FWIW. McCarthy didn't get going till the second half when the OSU was forced to sell out for the run (their RB ran for over 200 yards in that game).