QB options for 2024?

mngopher35
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QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 9:09:11 GMT -6 kmillard and VFL like this

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Post by mngopher35 on Jan 25, 2024 9:09:11 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2024 8:39:18 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan said:

Jan 24, 2024 8:27:22 GMT -6 mngopher35 said:

So if Cousins best seasons here from a leading the team/offense standpoint are his worst statistically in multiple ways, his top 5 stats on 3rd downs leads to a bottom 7 conversion rate, and players like Dak/Purdy lead the league this year in basic QB stats... You see the problem right? The stats you are using are about as meaningless as ONLY looking at QB wins. The reality is you need to use full context and that is where it often falls off for Cousins and why most people inside and out of this fan base see him the way they do. Everyone knows he can put up stats with great weapons but he often fails at the situational aspect. The only season he ever seemed to have success in those key moments was 2022 which again funny enough was his worst QB rating and we had a bottom of the league defense but still won 13 games (best in his career). That's the power of situational QB play that gets missed when looking at stats and can lead to more wins, even with bad defenses.

Jan 24, 2024 9:45:51 GMT -6 Raptorman said:

Right, it's all about the QB and wins. The same list. With a little something added. But yeah, it's all about the QB, 3rd down percentages.

Player	        Age	Year	Rank	Cmp	Att	Inc	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	TD%	Int%	Rate	PD	DPPG 
Patrick Mahomes	24	2019	1	319	484	165	65.9	4031	26	 5	5.4	1.0	105.3	294	18.4
Aaron Rodgers	27	2010	2	312	475	163	65.7	3922	28	11	5.9	2.3	101.2	240	15.0
Tom Brady	27	2004	3	288	474	186	60.8	3692	28	14	5.9	3.0	92.6	250	15.6
Tom Brady	39	2016	4	291	432	141	67.4	3554	28	 2	6.5	0.5	112.2	250	15.6
Kirk Cousins	34	2022	5	424	643	219	65.9	4547	29	14	4.5	2.2	92.5	427	26.7
Tom Brady	41	2018	6	375	570	195	65.8	4355	29	11	5.1	1.9	97.7	325	20.3
Peyton Manning	30	2006	7	362	557	195	65	4397	31	 9	5.6	1.6	101	360	22.5
Kirk Cousins	33	2021	8	372	561	189	66.3	4221	33	 7	5.9	1.2	103.1	426	26.6
Tom Brady	43	2020	9	401	610	209	65.7	4633	40	12	6.6	2.0	102.2	355	22.2
Drew Brees	32	2011	10	468	657	189	71.2	5476	46	14	7.0	2.1	110.6	341	21.3

I think you both have great points here. We've seen Kirk fold (and to be fair we've seen him step it up on occasion too, just not as much as we'd like with a clear exception in 2022). I also think the running game comes into play as well, and it's not like Kirk has had a consistently stellar one at that. That's one of the things I hate about this because total offense matters. I care about TD drives, not that the QB passed it in as an example. Defense definitely matters. Kirk had one when he started, but didn't exactly have an offense tailored to his strengths or an OC that bothered to design an offense around the tools he had. By the time Kirk got something that resembled that, the D was trash. I also think you're missing something else big. Less 3rd downs or a lot less 3rd and longs which is something that in all honesty is not Kirk's fault for the most part. Because when your average yards to go is longer on 3rd down, you'll convert less of them, and I don't care if you're Pat Mahomes or Peyton Manning in his prime. That's how it works.

I'll also note this. I saw plenty of check downs by guys like Mahomes, Goff, Allen, etc. last weekend. They do it too. Sometimes it worked. Sometimes it didn't.

This really isn't an either/or situation. It's a complex situation. I may be on team move on, but I do agree that it's not that Kirk sucks or something stupid like that.

Ya the point isn't that Kirk sucks, it's that basic stats comparing him to all time greats are missing massive amounts of context lol. The running game with Keenum was actually without Cook and averaged less per carry (3.9 ypc) than every year since. I agree that total offense is what matters and TD's no matter how they come matters more than who it is from. I think in 2019 with Stefanski we had a good OC, still top 8 defense in terms of ppd (5th in total points against) and the run game averaged 4.5 per carry. In the playoffs the defense held the Saints to 20 points then the 49ers to 27 (despite over half of their scores being less than 50 net yards and none over 61 due to our inability to move the ball). So imo it is fair to judge that year and his performance in the biggest game lead the offense to one drive over 10 yards until the 4th when it was basically over. I don't really blame him for the lack of winning other years with the issues but again even just singling out where our offense with elite weapons has been it is 13-14th range averaged out which isn't very good (8th in ppd with keenum and no rbs). I definitely think the fit aspect you mention is key and that is why Kirk isn't considered on of the elite or even top 10 type guys most of the time. He needs a closer to perfect situation than others and when he is forced to make plays off script he just struggles or takes the easy one even if it is unlikely to help the team.

Ya every QB does it but the issue is the extent and when it is being done. The timing it happens in the game matters too, 4th down with 8 to go with the game on the line for example isn't something I remember seeing Mahomes throwing 2 yards to someone closely covered with the season on the line. The 3rd down aspect though again was simply to point out that there is an obvious lack of context if Cousins is top 5 in basic stats but the offense is closer to the bottom of the league in converting. It's why no one really cares if his basic stats match up with QB's that everyone knows are better because we all watched the context in which they came and when you dig in just a little you see it in the offensive results in multiple ways too.

I just want to move on because the only time it made sense to pay up for Cousins was making a real push like we tried 18/19. After that when the defense fell off it was never going to work and it certainly isn't all on Cousins. It's just that there are obvious reason much of his time here people had him more in the 11-15 range than elite. Basic stats ignore a lot of the story as to why.

Last Edit: Jan 25, 2024 9:11:35 GMT -6 by mngopher35

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QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 10:13:19 GMT -6

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Post by Raptorman on Jan 25, 2024 10:13:19 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2024 8:25:41 GMT -6 Uncle said:

...and all that context probably leads to what Raptorman noted: a 3rd Rd pick, at most.

It came as a logical conclusion based on the fact that everyone knows they are picking a QB at one, and everyone knows they are dumping Fields. They have no leverage. You get nothing when you have no leverage. They may get more if they trade him before the draft. But I would be surprised at this point if they even get a 3.

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QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 10:14:33 GMT -6

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Post by Purple Pain on Jan 25, 2024 10:14:33 GMT -6

The viewpoints of the Vikings’ decision-makers might also be affected by their contract statuses (Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell are entering their third seasons) and business priorities (ownership probably wants to make money).

And are the Vikings legitimately close to contention? Let’s analyze some of the relevant factors.

On-field production: Different metrics paint different pictures. The Vikings this season ranked 23rd in DVOA, a metric that accounts for strength of schedule, lowest in the NFC North. Before Cousins exited the Week 8 game against the Green Bay Packers with a torn Achilles, the Vikings offense ranked eighth in success rate, according to TruMedia, while their defense ranked 26th. Point differential (minus-17) placed the Vikings 17th, and that seems about right.

Young talent: If Jefferson and Darrisaw sign extensions, the team’s two impactful talents on rookie contracts will be Jordan Addison and Ivan Pace Jr. In this category for the Lions are Aidan Hutchinson, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Branch and Sam LaPorta. The Packers have Quay Walker, Devonte Wyatt, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Lukas Van Ness, Jayden Reed and multiple offensive linemen on rookie contracts for the near future. The Bears boast tackle Darnell Wright, cornerbacks Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon, and safety Jaquan Brisker.

Future salary-cap space: The Vikings have about $20 million in effective cap space, according to Over The Cap, which is a figure that projects how much cap space a team will have after signing at least 51 players and its projected rookie class. The Lions and Bears are expected to have more. All four NFC North teams have ample room in 2025, even if player extensions will affect that flexibility.

Available draft capital: Adofo-Mensah has cited draft selections in the first two rounds as the team’s most premium assets, but we’ll use the top 100 as a benchmark. The Packers have five top-100 selections in 2024. The Lions have four. The Bears have three (including pick Nos. 1 and 9). The Vikings have three.

Coaching retention: Minnesota is likely to be the only team in the division to have continuity with its coordinators. The Bears fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and hired Shane Waldron. The Packers fired defensive coordinator Joe Barry. Both Lions coordinators, Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson, could depart for head-coaching jobs. Few changes could affect teams as significantly as Johnson’s move.

Add in other ancillary layers, such as the potential that the Vikings lose edge rusher Danielle Hunter to free agency, and the climb toward contention in 2024 feels steep. But will that feeling, loaded with uncertainty, force a shift in the Vikings’ team-building approach? Unless ownership shifts its course, one it has charted for nearly two decades, the answer is probably no.

But that in itself doesn’t answer the subscriber’s question. Bringing back Cousins, as opposed to swinging aggressively in the draft or signing a shorter-term option, would be a move in the vein of risk mitigation. That’s not to say there’s no risk at all — risk is inherent in any decision. As the reader mentioned, Cousins is nearing age 36 and returning from a torn Achilles.

But he has produced consistently in past years. He has spent time in O’Connell’s offense. He has developed a relationship with Jefferson. And he is respected inside the locker room.

By extending Cousins, the Vikings would be recalling the past optimistically (we were close!) and gazing into the future hopefully (we’ll upgrade our defense, improve our run game, stay healthy and outwit our divisional opponents). Contending in 2024 without Cousins requires a similarly hopeful view (the QB we drafted, signed or traded for will perform immediately, and everything else will go wonderfully!).

The main difference, of course, lies in what the decision will mean beyond 2024. Sign Cousins, and you might be risking a more malleable future with a franchise-defining upside. Opt to go the other route, and you might be risking years of inconsistency only to end up feeling that all you need to get over the hump is a quarterback like Kirk Cousins.

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QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 10:24:20 GMT -6

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Post by Raptorman on Jan 25, 2024 10:24:20 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2024 9:09:11 GMT -6 mngopher35 said:

Ya every QB does it but the issue is the extent and when it is being done. The timing it happens in the game matters too, 4th down with 8 to go with the game on the line for example isn't something I remember seeing Mahomes throwing 2 yards to someone closely covered with the season on the line. The 3rd down aspect though again was simply to point out that there is an obvious lack of context if Cousins is top 5 in basic stats but the offense is closer to the bottom of the league in converting. It's why no one really cares if his basic stats match up with QB's that everyone knows are better because we all watched the context in which they came and when you dig in just a little you see it in the offensive results in multiple ways too.

And yet, I've seen no one compare Cousins' third down rate to any QB in the League. People b*tch about it all the time. But, let's see the numbers on just the QBs, not the team numbers. People talk of players like Josh Allen, and a few others yet what have they done except come up short? The thing is with my list, those are all QB numbers in the year they won the Super Bowl. Not some random year. Maybe I should have made the comparison to players like Josh Allen and Rodgers in the years he didn't make the Super Bowl. After all, he's had enough of them. And ultimately that is the question. Why is a player like Rodgers only in one Super Bowl? It's not his QB play. No one here would argue that he and Cousin are on the same level. Why? He won one Super Bowl at the beginning of his career. Or Brees, took him what, 14 years and cheap ass hitting defense to win one. And we all know without that defense he's not in the Super Bowl.

My bet again is Detroit gets checked out of the playoff this weekend. Not based on Goff, but based on the defense.

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mngopher35
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QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 12:02:58 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by mngopher35 on Jan 25, 2024 12:02:58 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2024 10:24:20 GMT -6 Raptorman said:

Jan 25, 2024 9:09:11 GMT -6 mngopher35 said:

Ya every QB does it but the issue is the extent and when it is being done. The timing it happens in the game matters too, 4th down with 8 to go with the game on the line for example isn't something I remember seeing Mahomes throwing 2 yards to someone closely covered with the season on the line. The 3rd down aspect though again was simply to point out that there is an obvious lack of context if Cousins is top 5 in basic stats but the offense is closer to the bottom of the league in converting. It's why no one really cares if his basic stats match up with QB's that everyone knows are better because we all watched the context in which they came and when you dig in just a little you see it in the offensive results in multiple ways too.

And yet, I've seen no one compare Cousins' third down rate to any QB in the League. People b*tch about it all the time. But, let's see the numbers on just the QBs, not the team numbers. People talk of players like Josh Allen, and a few others yet what have they done except come up short? The thing is with my list, those are all QB numbers in the year they won the Super Bowl. Not some random year. Maybe I should have made the comparison to players like Josh Allen and Rodgers in the years he didn't make the Super Bowl. After all, he's had enough of them. And ultimately that is the question. Why is a player like Rodgers only in one Super Bowl? It's not his QB play. No one here would argue that he and Cousin are on the same level. Why? He won one Super Bowl at the beginning of his career. Or Brees, took him what, 14 years and cheap ass hitting defense to win one. And we all know without that defense he's not in the Super Bowl.

My bet again is Detroit gets checked out of the playoff this weekend. Not based on Goff, but based on the defense.

I honestly don't even know where to look it up just based on QB. I don't even think that's necessarily the crux of the argument in terms of situational play as much as what people have seen from him in playoffs/primetime games and the clutch moments (outside 2022). That might not be the fairest look but those bigger games and moments are what people remember. I didn't mean to use 3rd down of that one year as any indicator of his overall success on those downs anyways, it was just to point out how basic QB stats don't necessarily have much impact with that clear gap in 2021.

I don't think it really matters who you compare, if it's just using those basic QB stats without digging into the context it probably won't mean much to most. The reasons Rodgers only has one or Allen has none are probably quite long. The reality is it takes a lot to go right for any team/QB to win the SB and only one does each year. Not winning the SB is not the only aspect against Kirk in comparison to them though. Allen has had multiple years now where he put up a fair amount of points in a key playoff game only to lose to Mahomes/Reid and the Chiefs dynasty. He has 5 playoff wins already in his career. The last 4 seasons the Bills offense has ranked 3rd/4th/2nd/6th. When you watch the games you can consistently see him making plays with his legs when it breaks down and that includes some of the bigger games/moments (even the loss a few years back to the Chiefs). All of this in combination is lacking from what we have seen from Kirk and it is why he just isn't really considered at that level.

I agree with you on who wins. I think both teams have capable QB's, a lot of weapons and good play calling offensively. The defense is where 49ers separate themselves a bit. Nothing I am pointing out means defenses don't matter. It isn't just the win totals and playoffs it's where the offense in general is ranking and the abilities the QB has to constantly put them in that position. That's why I keep pointing out it takes full context to judge these things. Everyone knows that Kirk hasn't been the main reason since 2020 we haven't won but it doesn't change that the offense has ranked 13/14th on average in ppd during his 5 seasons here either despite a lot of weapons. His best chance while in MN with talent and only time in the divisional round he wasn't going toe to toe with a Mahomes and just barely miss out in a shootout, the offense couldn't move the ball at all and I have shared breakdowns before showing open guys not getting thrown to often. All of this context in combination matters a lot more than basic counting stats is why Rodgers or Allen or whoever is seen as better than Cousins.

Last Edit: Jan 25, 2024 12:13:05 GMT -6 by mngopher35

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QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 18:23:52 GMT -6 via mobile beckmt likes this

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Post by FSUVike on Jan 25, 2024 18:23:52 GMT -6

Morris to the Falcons would seem to remove them as suitors for Cousins.

This is Raheem's second, and probably last shot at being a Head Coach. He immediately gets a grace period if he drafts a Rookie QB.

I can think of no logical reason why he'd prefer to tie himself to Kirk instead unless Arthur Blank steps in. And Arthur just let his FO overrule his desire to hire Belicheat.

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QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 18:48:54 GMT -6 Brandon and ukvikings like this

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Post by Danchat on Jan 25, 2024 18:48:54 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2024 18:23:52 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

Morris to the Falcons would seem to remove them as suitors for Cousins.

This is Raheem's second, and probably last shot at being a Head Coach. He immediately gets a grace period if he drafts a Rookie QB.

I can think of no logical reason why he'd prefer to tie himself to Kirk instead unless Arthur Blank steps in. And Arthur just let his FO overrule his desire to hire Belicheat.

I'll wait to see who the OC hire is before declaring Cousins is out of the running. I could see them justifying signing Cousins to run a certain offense where he can elevate London/Pitts and have a strong run game, plus use the #8 on BPA rather than trying to get a QB / move up.

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QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 18:53:18 GMT -6 via mobile legendsofthenorth likes this

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Post by Brandon on Jan 25, 2024 18:53:18 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2024 18:23:52 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

Morris to the Falcons would seem to remove them as suitors for Cousins.

This is Raheem's second, and probably last shot at being a Head Coach. He immediately gets a grace period if he drafts a Rookie QB.

I can think of no logical reason why he'd prefer to tie himself to Kirk instead unless Arthur Blank steps in. And Arthur just let his FO overrule his desire to hire Belicheat.

Possibly, though alternatively he could decide that Kirk would provide stability for his last, best shot. Having Kirk would probably make them feel like they have a buffer. They might feel that with Kirk they'll have a baseline of 7-8 wins because they'll have quality QB play as opposed to the mess they've had dragging them down recently. That might be something he wants, not having to worry about crap QB play putting him in a hole? It's the same thing we've said about Kirk here. He won't carry the team, but he'll keep it from being a train wreck too.

Right now that doesn't seem to matter as much here because the roster, particularly the defense has more questions than answers. What's one more giant hole in a wall that needs to be completely rebuilt.

If the Falcons feel they're in a better position to put a better overall team around him I can still see it.

We shall see. I'm interested to see what happens in Washington. They've been quiet. The story has been they're waiting for the Lions OC, might they take a swing at Belichick?

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QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 19:07:06 GMT -6

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Post by beckmt on Jan 25, 2024 19:07:06 GMT -6

Atlanta is not much in a different spot than us, having to give a lot of assets to move up and draft a QB. And they may be closer than the Vikings to being a solid playoff team. I have seen some mock drafts where the Vikings move up to get one of the top 3 quarterbacks. Should be interesting.

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QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 19:08:16 GMT -6 via mobile Danchat and ukvikings like this

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Post by legendsofthenorth on Jan 25, 2024 19:08:16 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2024 18:53:18 GMT -6 Brandon said:

Jan 25, 2024 18:23:52 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

Morris to the Falcons would seem to remove them as suitors for Cousins.

This is Raheem's second, and probably last shot at being a Head Coach. He immediately gets a grace period if he drafts a Rookie QB.

I can think of no logical reason why he'd prefer to tie himself to Kirk instead unless Arthur Blank steps in. And Arthur just let his FO overrule his desire to hire Belicheat.

Possibly, though alternatively he could decide that Kirk would provide stability for his last, best shot. Having Kirk would probably make them feel like they have a buffer. They might feel that with Kirk they'll have a baseline of 7-8 wins because they'll have quality QB play as opposed to the mess they've had dragging them down recently. That might be something he wants, not having to worry about crap QB play putting him in a hole? It's the same thing we've said about Kirk here. He won't carry the team, but he'll keep it from being a train wreck too.

Right now that doesn't seem to matter as much here because the roster, particularly the defense has more questions than answers. What's one more giant hole in a wall that needs to be completely rebuilt.

If the Falcons feel they're in a better position to put a better overall team around him I can still see it.

We shall see. I'm interested to see what happens in Washington. They've been quiet. The story has been they're waiting for the Lions OC, might they take a swing at Belichick?

And he will most likely go after a Rams positional coach for OC or come after a past Rams guy for OC so their would be concept familiarity there too

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QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 19:15:24 GMT -6 via mobile kmillard, Brandon, and 3 more like this

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Post by Drank on Jan 25, 2024 19:15:24 GMT -6

For the record Kirk starting to sound like he might leave. I find it to good to be true and he stays for several more years. But he pretty much making it clear he not taking less. Structure so yeah I see what that means. Don’t cave in to another guaranteed long term deal.

Plus an Achilles is still serious. I think he will be okay, but it not guaranteed. So don’t just assume he automatically coming back with no problem or no drop off.

Last Edit: Jan 25, 2024 19:16:50 GMT -6 by Drank

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QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 20:31:29 GMT -6 via mobile legendsofthenorth and Drank like this

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Post by Brandon on Jan 25, 2024 20:31:29 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2024 19:08:16 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

Jan 25, 2024 18:53:18 GMT -6 Brandon said:

Possibly, though alternatively he could decide that Kirk would provide stability for his last, best shot. Having Kirk would probably make them feel like they have a buffer. They might feel that with Kirk they'll have a baseline of 7-8 wins because they'll have quality QB play as opposed to the mess they've had dragging them down recently. That might be something he wants, not having to worry about crap QB play putting him in a hole? It's the same thing we've said about Kirk here. He won't carry the team, but he'll keep it from being a train wreck too.

Right now that doesn't seem to matter as much here because the roster, particularly the defense has more questions than answers. What's one more giant hole in a wall that needs to be completely rebuilt.

If the Falcons feel they're in a better position to put a better overall team around him I can still see it.

We shall see. I'm interested to see what happens in Washington. They've been quiet. The story has been they're waiting for the Lions OC, might they take a swing at Belichick?

And he will most likely go after a Rams positional coach for OC or come after a past Rams guy for OC so their would be concept familiarity there too

What worries me is that one of these coaches comes after Keenan McCardell as their OC. As much as I'd like to see a guy advance in his goals, I'd really like to keep him around.

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QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 21:38:47 GMT -6

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Post by oldman on Jan 25, 2024 21:38:47 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2024 7:44:35 GMT -6 Raptorman said:

Jan 24, 2024 22:28:02 GMT -6 Danchat said:

What do we think Fields goes for? A 2nd + more? I see that as the baseline price for him.

A third straight up at most. How can they push for more? What are they going to do, not take a third and cut him? When you make it known that you are moving on from a QB due to lack of "skills" I'll call it, you don't have a whole lot to stand on in pushing for a trade. Kinda like closing the door after the horse has left the barn.

3rd or some swap of picks, or maybe we send Mullins for a back up (I hope)

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QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 21:42:32 GMT -6 via mobile Brandon likes this

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Post by Drank on Jan 25, 2024 21:42:32 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2024 20:31:29 GMT -6 Brandon said:

Jan 25, 2024 19:08:16 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said:

And he will most likely go after a Rams positional coach for OC or come after a past Rams guy for OC so their would be concept familiarity there too

What worries me is that one of these coaches comes after Keenan McCardell as their OC. As much as I'd like to see a guy advance in his goals, I'd really like to keep him around.

I agree and I like seeing guys get chances. For selfish reasons I hope not yet lol!

jean74 Ball Boy Happy Thanksgiving and Merry Christmas! Posts: 79 Likes: 19	QB options for 2024? Jan 25, 2024 21:59:26 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by jean74 on Jan 25, 2024 21:59:26 GMT -6 Well it will all depend on a healthy and consistent Kirk Cousins coming on back. But may need to draft other players in 2024.
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