QB options for 2024?

whoskmoon
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QB options for 2024? Mar 30, 2024 5:28:22 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Mar 30, 2024 5:28:22 GMT -6

Mar 29, 2024 22:13:25 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Daniels ranks very highly, but calling him the best since Burrow is a stretch unless you have some data to share

I found that not every one of those stats are actual predictors for success in the NFL. Good play under pressure for instance, appears to be a negative historically, while stats like BTT % mean nothing. Would be interesting to see how that overall grade has done in the past though.

Mar 30, 2024 4:40:13 GMT -6 slapnut19 said:

I thought that too, but then we saw Dobbs, Hall, and Mullens start games and it became more clear that he does not want a QB who is going to take off that often. While I think he is capable of adapting his offense to a new QB, going for Daniels is a far bigger change than Maye/McCarthy/Penix.

KOC, Andy Reid and Sean McVay aren't going to revamp their offense built around a completely different style of QB in the middle of the season, and it should noted that the QB he drafted and the one he traded for (assuming KOC has input on the QB his GM acquires) were both mobile QBs.

I think we also make too big of a deal out of one game from Josh Dobbs where he stayed in the pocket and it is possible Chicago, and to a much lesser extent, LV, schemed to keep him there. I could be wrong, and a limited statue of a QB is what he wants, but if that is the case he won't take any of the top 6 QBs this year. Maybe Penix Jr. is that guy, but I think fans will see him run and scramble a lot more in the NFL when he finds out the defense can't tackle the QB without drawing a flag.

VikingsVictorious
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QB options for 2024? Mar 30, 2024 8:30:36 GMT -6 NoresemanSam likes this

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Post by VikingsVictorious on Mar 30, 2024 8:30:36 GMT -6

Mar 30, 2024 5:28:22 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Mar 29, 2024 22:13:25 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Daniels ranks very highly, but calling him the best since Burrow is a stretch unless you have some data to share

I found that not every one of those stats are actual predictors for success in the NFL. Good play under pressure for instance, appears to be a negative historically, while stats like BTT % mean nothing. Would be interesting to see how that overall grade has done in the past though.

Mar 30, 2024 4:40:13 GMT -6 slapnut19 said:

I thought that too, but then we saw Dobbs, Hall, and Mullens start games and it became more clear that he does not want a QB who is going to take off that often. While I think he is capable of adapting his offense to a new QB, going for Daniels is a far bigger change than Maye/McCarthy/Penix.

KOC, Andy Reid and Sean McVay aren't going to revamp their offense built around a completely different style of QB in the middle of the season, and it should noted that the QB he drafted and the one he traded for (assuming KOC has input on the QB his GM acquires) were both mobile QBs.

I think we also make too big of a deal out of one game from Josh Dobbs where he stayed in the pocket and it is possible Chicago, and to a much lesser extent, LV, schemed to keep him there. I could be wrong, and a limited statue of a QB is what he wants, but if that is the case he won't take any of the top 6 QBs this year. Maybe Penix Jr. is that guy, but I think fans will see him run and scramble a lot more in the NFL when he finds out the defense can't tackle the QB without drawing a flag.

FSUVike
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QB options for 2024? Mar 30, 2024 17:08:31 GMT -6 via mobile maybenextyear likes this

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Post by FSUVike on Mar 30, 2024 17:08:31 GMT -6

Mar 29, 2024 21:31:29 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Mar 29, 2024 15:38:02 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

Help me understand why.

Facts: Daniels throws the least amount of passes over the middle of the field in the intermediate range of any QB Prospect coming out since Justin Fields. Minnesota is #2 in passes thrown in that window and #1 in passes thrown in the short MOF (Middle of Field).

That alone should give anyone pause. Is he Elite at throwing bombs with touch outside the numbers? Yes. Unquestionably. Kevin doesn't call bombs. Jefferson and Addison are not 4.2/4.3 guys. Justin is an Elite route runner and Jordan is getting there. Go Balls and Slot Fades are not their strengths.

Daniels holds the ball forever. And still struggles to progress to his second read. More often than not he'll lower his eyes, tuck & run instead of hanging in the pocket and going through his progressions.

Jayden is an Elite runner. Likely #2 behind Lamar Jackson the day he enters the NFL. But he's skinny. Added a whopping 5 pounds over his listed college weight despite skipping the weigh-in at the Combine. You're really smart. What does that tell you? It tells me LSU listed him at 205 but he likely played at 195. That's historically light for a QB.

And for a QB that runs 50% of the time that he's pressured that's unconscionably light.

But that's the part I keep coming back to. Not the weight. The part where 50% of the time that he's pressured Jayden either gets sacked or takes off running. Literally the opposite of what Kevin expects his QB to do.

O'Connell would have to redesign the entire Offensive Scheme to be oriented far more around deep field shots outside the numbers. He'd need a legit burner. And better Pass Pro. All for a guy who had one good year in College. And is skinny as a rail.

I liked Daniels coming into last season. Liked him coming out. But the more data I get the more I can't see how he fits what the Vikings currently have. Trading significant capital for a guy you have to redesign your system, and to a lesser extent your roster around makes zero sense to me.

So help me understand.

I am sorry, but the numbers just don't backup what you are saying about Daniels. He has the second fastest time to throw of any of the top 6 QBs in this draft, behind only Nix who threw a bunch of short dump-offs all season. That just doesn't go along with a QB who holds the ball forever.

His passer rating between the numbers was significantly higher than outside the numbers at all three levels and he threw between the numbers about 50% of the time at the intermediate level, only slightly less often than Maye. He threw outside the numbers 36 times while throwing over the middle 35, Kirk threw outside the numbers 37 times, over the middle 39 at the intermediate level. Sure doesn't seem like an issue to me.

I also don't think we actually know what KOC wants at QB. He had an immobile, limited QB who did a couple of things well and he built his offense around that, but is that how he really wants to run the offense? Wouldn't Kirk be back if that is what he truly wanted? Even if this is KOC's preferred offense, I could care less. I want a QB who has the most talent regardless of fit, and that is Daniels. KOC might only have two more seasons with the Vikings (and if he refuses to adjust his offense to fit his QB, he will only be here two more seasons, and no more, regardless of who we draft), our next QB will hopefully be here for the next 10+ years.

Finally, I want Daniels because of what I watched on tape, and how the analytics say he is the best prospect since Joe Burrow. The best deep ball adjusted completion percentage of any QB drafted in the first since 2016, a ridiculously low turnover worth play rate and adjusted completion percentage near 80% while throwing an average of 10.5 yards downfield is fantastic.

Doesn't matter though, because Washington will be drafting him #2 and probably won't even consider a trade out.

PFF has Daniels at 2.91 seconds to throw, tied for 139th. Also 'pressure to sack rate was 20%, which is very worrisome, tends to be very cautious with his throws and decisions, resulting in him holding the ball and taking sacks'.

PFN says 'can get held up as a processor over the middle, including hesitation and delayed reads'.

The EPA stat you referred to, which I've been aware of for a while, refers to All throws over the MOF. 1-10, 11-20 & 21 and deeper. PFF has 10.5% of his snaps throwing over the MOF in the 11-20 yard window. That means 48.3% of his passes over the MOF were short or bombs.

The Minnesota Vikings were #2 in the NFL at pass attempts over the MOF between 11-20 yards. #2. In a window Daniels threw into 10.5% last year.

But the real stat that kills me is the 50.6% of passes thrown when he's pressured off of his initial spot. That means 49.4% of the time that Jayden is pressured he either takes a sack (20.2%) or takes off and runs. Both of those percentages are really bad. Not a little bad. Really bad.

The good news is that he's aces at throwing the ball over the MOF from 1-10 yards. Minnesota is #1 in Pass Attempts in that window. And he reduced his pressure to sack rate from 30.8% two years ago to 20.2% last year. So he's made nice strides there, at least.

But it's still bombs and runs. Perfect for an Air Raid system. Not at all what the Shanahan/McVey tree runs. Drafting him means Kevin O'Connell would have to implement an entirely different offensive scheme. A scheme he has little, if any experience in. The Vikings would almost be better off firing O'Connell and bringing in someone that has majored in schemes centered around deep throws and QB runs. Like Steichen when he was with the Eagles.

Because Jalen Hurts that is skinnier by a bit but much more accurate is the comp for Daniels. Not Lamar Jackson. Lamar stays alive with his eyes up in the pocket. Jayden doesn't do either.

legendsofthenorth Ring of Honor Enter your message here... Posts: 5,717 Likes: 3,257	QB options for 2024? Mar 30, 2024 19:06:53 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by legendsofthenorth on Mar 30, 2024 19:06:53 GMT -6 All these stats are making me bonkers. We need to just watch film and ask ourselves can he play or not

whoskmoon
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QB options for 2024? Mar 31, 2024 7:49:37 GMT -6 VikingsVictorious likes this

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Post by whoskmoon on Mar 31, 2024 7:49:37 GMT -6

Mar 30, 2024 17:08:31 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

PFF has Daniels at 2.91 seconds to throw, tied for 139th.

That is his average time per drop back, his average time to throw was 2.49, which was better than any of the 6 top QBs who averaged throwing more than 7 yards downfield.

Mar 30, 2024 17:08:31 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

Also 'pressure to sack rate was 20%, which is very worrisome, tends to be very cautious with his throws and decisions, resulting in him holding the ball and taking sacks'.

His time to sack was actually less on average than Bo Nix and JJ McCarthy and I am not too worried about the pressure to sack rate. Joe Burrow's was similar at LSU and I just think it is something they coach into their QBs based on some quotes from Burrow about how a sack on 3rd down isn't really any worse than a checkdown.

VikingsVictorious
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QB options for 2024? Mar 31, 2024 7:53:25 GMT -6

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Post by VikingsVictorious on Mar 31, 2024 7:53:25 GMT -6

Mar 31, 2024 7:49:37 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Mar 30, 2024 17:08:31 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

PFF has Daniels at 2.91 seconds to throw, tied for 139th.

That is his average time per drop back, his average time to throw was 2.49, which was better than any of the 6 top QBs who averaged throwing more than 7 yards downfield.

Mar 30, 2024 17:08:31 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

Also 'pressure to sack rate was 20%, which is very worrisome, tends to be very cautious with his throws and decisions, resulting in him holding the ball and taking sacks'.

His time to sack was actually less on average than Bo Nix and JJ McCarthy and I am not too worried about the pressure to sack rate. Joe Burrow's was similar at LSU and I just think it is something they coach into their QBs based on some quotes from Burrow about how a sack on 3rd down isn't really any worse than a checkdown.

Great clarification.

FSUVike
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QB options for 2024? Mar 31, 2024 8:40:16 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by FSUVike on Mar 31, 2024 8:40:16 GMT -6

Mar 31, 2024 7:49:37 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Mar 30, 2024 17:08:31 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

PFF has Daniels at 2.91 seconds to throw, tied for 139th.

That is his average time per drop back, his average time to throw was 2.49, which was better than any of the 6 top QBs who averaged throwing more than 7 yards downfield.

Mar 30, 2024 17:08:31 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

Also 'pressure to sack rate was 20%, which is very worrisome, tends to be very cautious with his throws and decisions, resulting in him holding the ball and taking sacks'.

His time to sack was actually less on average than Bo Nix and JJ McCarthy and I am not too worried about the pressure to sack rate. Joe Burrow's was similar at LSU and I just think it is something they coach into their QBs based on some quotes from Burrow about how a sack on 3rd down isn't really any worse than a checkdown.

Different coaches at LSU for Burrow & Daniels.

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QB options for 2024? Mar 31, 2024 9:16:50 GMT -6 via mobile beckmt, Danchat, and 3 more like this

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Post by FSUVike on Mar 31, 2024 9:16:50 GMT -6

I think it's getting pretty easy to figure out what Minnesota is hoping for in order with the glaring exception of how they feel about Daniels.

First Preference: trade up to #3 for Drake Maye. Use the '25 1st if necessary (it absolutely will be).

Second Preference: Stick & Pick JJ McCarthy at #11.

Third Preference: Trade up for JJ McCarthy without needing to use #23. And hopefully get an IOL at #23.

Fourth Preference: Trade up to #4 or #5 for McCarthy and use both '24 1st Round Picks but not the '25 1st Rounder.

The real question becomes does Jayden Daniels at #3 including spending the '25 1st to get there rank as Kevin and Kwesi's Second Preference. The Vikings were one of the earliest Teams to reach out to LSU about Daniels.

I think the Private Workouts are going to be huge. O'Connell has talked about wanting to go over tape with these guys to find out what they were thinking on certain plays. Like, was that the (bad) play call or was that you. Teach them some of his plays and then take them onto the field to execute.

The reality is that no NFL Team has finalized their Big Boards yet. Fowler was just on SC saying the Commanders like multiple guys but are still in evaluation mode.

Some Team could come out of these evaluations way higher and way lower than the consensus. Waaaay to early to know. But for me how Kevin ultimately views Daniels is the biggest piece of the puzzle. It's easy for us to look at Maye and McCarthy and their ratings throwing the ball exactly where O'Connell calls plays. But Jayden has unique elements that Kevin could desire.

We have to remember that KOC has never picked his own QB before. He inherited Cousins. Settled for Dobbs when they couldn't get Wolford or Brissett after Kirk went down. This is a guy that has waited for years for this very moment.

But this also a guy with unique insight. Remember, he used to coach up prospects on how to handle the pre-draft process. From workouts to white board sessions to interviews. Kevin is in position to know which of these kids is spouting memorized stuff from getting coached up on the pre-draft process and which ones are giving authentic answers.

It's not going to be just about the PFF grade at throwing over the MOF. The person is going to matter more. Especially how quickly they can grasp his system and how they profile as leaders in his culture.

It's not even April yet. Which flipping seems unreal to me.

Last Edit: Mar 31, 2024 9:21:19 GMT -6 by FSUVike

vikingpwr Living Legend Posts: 21,382 Likes: 4,600	QB options for 2024? Mar 31, 2024 12:05:29 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by vikingpwr on Mar 31, 2024 12:05:29 GMT -6 Mar 30, 2024 19:06:53 GMT -6 legendsofthenorth said: All these stats are making me bonkers.

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QB options for 2024? Mar 31, 2024 12:52:25 GMT -6

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Post by Purple Pain on Mar 31, 2024 12:52:25 GMT -6

Justin Fields was interested in being traded to Vikings

ESPN’s Brooke Pryor gave an inside look into a rapid and remarkable transformation of the quarterback room for the Pittsburgh Steelers in her exclusive coverage of the NFL Owners’ Meetings.

Inside the report was a detailed look at how the Steelers could pivot from 2023 first-round pick Kenny Pickett to a room with former Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson and former Chicago Bear Justin Fields.

In the article, Pryor revealed Fields’ four targeted destinations before free agency started. Alongside the Steelers, Atlanta Falcons and Las Vegas Raiders, Pryor listed the Minnesota Vikings as a desired location for Fields.

Leaving out that the Bears were probably not interested in seeing Fields twice a year in purple and gold, the Vikings continue to be one of the preferable destinations for quarterbacks.

Top quarterback prospects Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy have both had nothing but praise for the Vikings brass and their vision for the next franchise signal-caller.

Minnesota has a great situation to help foster the development of a young quarterback from a deadly arsenal of weapons to a staff ready-made to get the most out of a quarterback. Fields’ desire to possibly don the purple and gold is just another example of that.

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QB options for 2024? Mar 31, 2024 16:30:01 GMT -6 Danchat, FSUVike, and 1 more like this

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Post by whoskmoon on Mar 31, 2024 16:30:01 GMT -6

Mar 31, 2024 9:16:50 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

I think it's getting pretty easy to figure out what Minnesota is hoping for in order with the glaring exception of how they feel about Daniels.

First Preference: trade up to #3 for Drake Maye. Use the '25 1st if necessary (it absolutely will be).

Second Preference: Stick & Pick JJ McCarthy at #11.

Third Preference: Trade up for JJ McCarthy without needing to use #23. And hopefully get an IOL at #23.

Fourth Preference: Trade up to #4 or #5 for McCarthy and use both '24 1st Round Picks but not the '25 1st Rounder.

The real question becomes does Jayden Daniels at #3 including spending the '25 1st to get there rank as Kevin and Kwesi's Second Preference. The Vikings were one of the earliest Teams to reach out to LSU about Daniels.

I think the Private Workouts are going to be huge. O'Connell has talked about wanting to go over tape with these guys to find out what they were thinking on certain plays. Like, was that the (bad) play call or was that you. Teach them some of his plays and then take them onto the field to execute.

The reality is that no NFL Team has finalized their Big Boards yet. Fowler was just on SC saying the Commanders like multiple guys but are still in evaluation mode.

Some Team could come out of these evaluations way higher and way lower than the consensus. Waaaay to early to know. But for me how Kevin ultimately views Daniels is the biggest piece of the puzzle. It's easy for us to look at Maye and McCarthy and their ratings throwing the ball exactly where O'Connell calls plays. But Jayden has unique elements that Kevin could desire.

We have to remember that KOC has never picked his own QB before. He inherited Cousins. Settled for Dobbs when they couldn't get Wolford or Brissett after Kirk went down. This is a guy that has waited for years for this very moment.

But this also a guy with unique insight. Remember, he used to coach up prospects on how to handle the pre-draft process. From workouts to white board sessions to interviews. Kevin is in position to know which of these kids is spouting memorized stuff from getting coached up on the pre-draft process and which ones are giving authentic answers.

It's not going to be just about the PFF grade at throwing over the MOF. The person is going to matter more. Especially how quickly they can grasp his system and how they profile as leaders in his culture.

It's not even April yet. Which flipping seems unreal to me.

I think I would be happy with any of these scenarios, although I do see why some would hesitate to use our 1st next year to move up to #3. The best defensive player drafted by the Vikings since 2015 was Jayron fricken Kearse according approximate value. Clearly the Vikings need to start doing something on defense and can't just continue to live off of free agency, and not having a 1st or 2nd to spend on the defense until 2026 is going to make improving the D very difficult through the draft.

oldman Veteran Dont have any expectations and you will not be disappointed. Posts: 1,368 Likes: 554	QB options for 2024? Apr 1, 2024 16:37:27 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by oldman on Apr 1, 2024 16:37:27 GMT -6 Give 11, 23, next years first and Mullins to SD for Herbert. any takers?
	Last Edit: Apr 1, 2024 16:48:08 GMT -6 by oldman

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,552 Likes: 31,478 Fan Since: 1998	QB options for 2024? Apr 1, 2024 16:42:42 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Apr 1, 2024 16:42:42 GMT -6 Apr 1, 2024 16:37:27 GMT -6 oldman said: Give 11, 23, next years first and Mullins to SD for Lawarence. any takers? To who? For who? This is confusing.
	Last Edit: Apr 1, 2024 16:43:13 GMT -6 by Funkytown