Post by Danchat on Dec 9, 2023 13:00:58 GMT -6
Coming off a disastrous loss to the Bears, the Vikings find themselves right back in the playoff hunt with the Packers and Rams rattling off multiple wins. Can they topple the Raiders or continue to lose against weak competition? Let's see how the Raiders stack up:
Injury Report
Vikings
S Jackson - Questionable
RG Ingram - Questionable
Raiders
LT Miller - Out
DE Crosby - Questionable
Line: Vikings -3
SuperSim Calculated Line: Vikings -7.5 (note that I simmed the game in a "neutral site", since it's going to be 50%+ Vikings fans)
*My Thoughts*
The Raiders started the year out with the new Raiders regime doing everything they could to recreate the "Patriots environment" despite McDaniels being exposed as a poor head coach once again. It was absolutely confirmed once he was canned and the interim HC has already gotten better returns from this team. Already decimated from the Gruden/Mayock era with draft after draft of busts, the new regime barely lasted a calendar year. This is a roster in the midst of a rebuild (no, not tanking) and is quite weak in several places. QB is a weird spot as Garoppolo is clearly the best player at that position, but they are better off developing 4th rounder O'Connell. So far the returns have not been great for him, as it seems more likely he winds up as a good backup, but it's not as if playing Jimmy G would accomplish anything. Having failed to win a Super Bowl in San Fran with so much surrounding him, there was never much upside in paying him $24M APY to lead a team with a bottom 5/10 roster. They will be looking to take a QB high in the draft next year, no doubt.
Their offense runs through Jacobs, who looked like the best back in the game last year, but has fallen off this season. He's still very good and not past his prime yet, but the high usage of 2022 is coming back to hurt him. He is a classic bellcow RB - backup Zamir White will handle about 2-3 carries a game, and old friend Abdullah will catch 1-2 passes and that's it. Bolden is going as a special teamer at age 33, as longtime Patriots players seem to get privileges others don't.
The offensive line has been an issue in run protection, but on the whole they have a decent unit here. Missing LT Miller is a big problem with Hunter looming, and either Munford or Herron will have major issues. Longtime backup G/C Van Roten is having a career year at age 33. James is also having a career year after being a low-end starter. Parham is struggling more than he was last year and can be attacked in the run game.
The receiver unit might have been quite dangerous 2-3 years ago, but this unit isn't playing up to snuff. Adams' play has dropped off to a degree and PFF does not think it is entirely the QBs' fault; he's not getting open quite as often as he used to. It's been 10 games since he had an 100 yard game! He's still good enough to pick on our CBs, and they do have a capable #2 in Meyers, though he's been considerably less effective since Garoppolo was benched. Renfrow was great in 2021 but has inexplicably become one of the league's most inefficient receivers. Firmly in the prime of his career, I am puzzled as to what happened to him. 2nd round rookie Mayer isn't breaking out like LaPorta or Kincaid and doesn't have the athletic profile that will consistently get him separation.
Defensively, this is a unit that is lacking due to so many missed 1st/2nd round picks. The best players are 4th (Crosby) and 5th (Hobbs) round picks. Crosby is an monster playing at a HOF level who has carried this unit to a couple wins himself. This is despite the rookie 7th overall pick Tyree Wilson being a disaster (9 pressures in 320+ snaps!). PFF warned us that he wasn't even worth a 1st round pick, but he's a classic "size / tools trap" who is likely not going to be the next Danielle Hunter. Thankfully, 2021 3rd rounder Koonce has been a top-notch rotational rusher. They also like to play DT-sized Tillery on the edge, but he's frankly not very good. The DT unit has a couple decent run stuffers but offers no pass rusher. Jenkins is going strong at age 34, while Nichols is having a disappointing year in his prime.
The LB unit is a considerable weakness, though Spillane is having a career year. His poor grades from when he was a Steeler is holding him down, but he's playing better now that he's in a full-time role. Deablo is a college safety but is actually a better run stuffer than coverage man.
The secondary is okay at best. Hobbs is a standout but not the type of guy to go 1-on-1 with a #1 like Jefferson. Robertson is nickel-sized but has won a full-time role and will probably get matched up on Addison. Bennett is having a rough start to his career, and could lose him to the recently claimed Jones or the inexplicably highly graded Hall. The safeties are run-of-the-mill, with Moehrig operating as a passable starter while Epps is having two rough years in a row.
Prediction: Vikings 21, Raiders 14
I once again profess that I am unsure about my prediction with the O'Connell-led Vikings being so wishy-washy. They can beat the 49ers but lose to the Bears at home... but everything is pointing the right direction here. The Raiders offense plays right into Flores' hand as we can stop the run very well, and O'Connell is going to struggle against the blitzes. Offensively is the wildcard as if this was a Cousins-led offense there'd be no excuse not to put up 28+ points, but with O'Connell's gameplan likely to force Dobbs to be a pocket passer and more forced carries to Mattison, it's possible they continue to flounder and turn the ball over some more. But in what will be a Vikings-friendly environment and so much talent lacking on the Raiders roster, I will heed my simulator's suggestions and predict a TD win.
Any thoughts?
Injury Report
Vikings
S Jackson - Questionable
RG Ingram - Questionable
Raiders
LT Miller - Out
DE Crosby - Questionable
Line: Vikings -3
SuperSim Calculated Line: Vikings -7.5 (note that I simmed the game in a "neutral site", since it's going to be 50%+ Vikings fans)
*My Thoughts*
The Raiders started the year out with the new Raiders regime doing everything they could to recreate the "Patriots environment" despite McDaniels being exposed as a poor head coach once again. It was absolutely confirmed once he was canned and the interim HC has already gotten better returns from this team. Already decimated from the Gruden/Mayock era with draft after draft of busts, the new regime barely lasted a calendar year. This is a roster in the midst of a rebuild (no, not tanking) and is quite weak in several places. QB is a weird spot as Garoppolo is clearly the best player at that position, but they are better off developing 4th rounder O'Connell. So far the returns have not been great for him, as it seems more likely he winds up as a good backup, but it's not as if playing Jimmy G would accomplish anything. Having failed to win a Super Bowl in San Fran with so much surrounding him, there was never much upside in paying him $24M APY to lead a team with a bottom 5/10 roster. They will be looking to take a QB high in the draft next year, no doubt.
Their offense runs through Jacobs, who looked like the best back in the game last year, but has fallen off this season. He's still very good and not past his prime yet, but the high usage of 2022 is coming back to hurt him. He is a classic bellcow RB - backup Zamir White will handle about 2-3 carries a game, and old friend Abdullah will catch 1-2 passes and that's it. Bolden is going as a special teamer at age 33, as longtime Patriots players seem to get privileges others don't.
The offensive line has been an issue in run protection, but on the whole they have a decent unit here. Missing LT Miller is a big problem with Hunter looming, and either Munford or Herron will have major issues. Longtime backup G/C Van Roten is having a career year at age 33. James is also having a career year after being a low-end starter. Parham is struggling more than he was last year and can be attacked in the run game.
The receiver unit might have been quite dangerous 2-3 years ago, but this unit isn't playing up to snuff. Adams' play has dropped off to a degree and PFF does not think it is entirely the QBs' fault; he's not getting open quite as often as he used to. It's been 10 games since he had an 100 yard game! He's still good enough to pick on our CBs, and they do have a capable #2 in Meyers, though he's been considerably less effective since Garoppolo was benched. Renfrow was great in 2021 but has inexplicably become one of the league's most inefficient receivers. Firmly in the prime of his career, I am puzzled as to what happened to him. 2nd round rookie Mayer isn't breaking out like LaPorta or Kincaid and doesn't have the athletic profile that will consistently get him separation.
Defensively, this is a unit that is lacking due to so many missed 1st/2nd round picks. The best players are 4th (Crosby) and 5th (Hobbs) round picks. Crosby is an monster playing at a HOF level who has carried this unit to a couple wins himself. This is despite the rookie 7th overall pick Tyree Wilson being a disaster (9 pressures in 320+ snaps!). PFF warned us that he wasn't even worth a 1st round pick, but he's a classic "size / tools trap" who is likely not going to be the next Danielle Hunter. Thankfully, 2021 3rd rounder Koonce has been a top-notch rotational rusher. They also like to play DT-sized Tillery on the edge, but he's frankly not very good. The DT unit has a couple decent run stuffers but offers no pass rusher. Jenkins is going strong at age 34, while Nichols is having a disappointing year in his prime.
The LB unit is a considerable weakness, though Spillane is having a career year. His poor grades from when he was a Steeler is holding him down, but he's playing better now that he's in a full-time role. Deablo is a college safety but is actually a better run stuffer than coverage man.
The secondary is okay at best. Hobbs is a standout but not the type of guy to go 1-on-1 with a #1 like Jefferson. Robertson is nickel-sized but has won a full-time role and will probably get matched up on Addison. Bennett is having a rough start to his career, and could lose him to the recently claimed Jones or the inexplicably highly graded Hall. The safeties are run-of-the-mill, with Moehrig operating as a passable starter while Epps is having two rough years in a row.
Prediction: Vikings 21, Raiders 14
I once again profess that I am unsure about my prediction with the O'Connell-led Vikings being so wishy-washy. They can beat the 49ers but lose to the Bears at home... but everything is pointing the right direction here. The Raiders offense plays right into Flores' hand as we can stop the run very well, and O'Connell is going to struggle against the blitzes. Offensively is the wildcard as if this was a Cousins-led offense there'd be no excuse not to put up 28+ points, but with O'Connell's gameplan likely to force Dobbs to be a pocket passer and more forced carries to Mattison, it's possible they continue to flounder and turn the ball over some more. But in what will be a Vikings-friendly environment and so much talent lacking on the Raiders roster, I will heed my simulator's suggestions and predict a TD win.
Any thoughts?
... and neither is this Chris guy.