Saints at Vikings Depth Chart Preview 2023
Nov 11, 2023 14:42:35 GMT -6
Funkytown, Oracle Bone Diviner, and 1 more like this
Post by Danchat on Nov 11, 2023 14:42:35 GMT -6
After stringing together a fourth win in a row, the Vikings face another 5-4 team. After a big win, will they come out flat or will we start winning home games again? Let's see how the Saints stack up:
Line: Saints -3
SuperSim Calculated Line: Saints -4
Injury Report
Vikings
QB Hall - Out
WR Jefferson - Questionable
DL Lowry - Doubtful
ILB Asamoah - Questionable
TE Hockenson - Questionable
WR Osborn - Questionable
Saints
HB Miller - Out
DE Foskey - Out
*My Thoughts*
This Saints team is in an odd place - still somewhat in salary cap hell, the team continues to mortgage the future to now be about a .500 squad. With the NFC as weak as it is and an even weaker AFC South, that puts them in first place, but this roster has problems. They're paying Carr to get the offense to the next level, yet they're not any better than they were with Andy Dalton last year. So far Carr only has 10 TDs in 9 games and a paltry 6.7 YPA, but it's possible he starts to positively regress back to his Raiders numbers.
The running game hasn't been very effective this year with Alvin Kamara running at a 3.6 YPC and Jamaal Williams at a terrible 3.0. The OL hasn't run blocked well at all, and Kamara's bread butter is through the pass game (43 catches in 6 games!). Taysom Hill is the only one running well, as he's been a fantastic redzone weapon with almost 400 rushing+receiving yards and a handful of successful pass plays too. The 33 year old shows no signs of slowing down.
The receiving group feels like it should be better than this. Olave's numbers have dipped in recent weeks after a hot start to the year, but he'll get in the neighborhood of 10+ targets a game. Michael Thomas is finally for the first time in an eon, but he hasn't been the same Pro Bowler he was before, as he's more of a possession receiver now. Shaheed has been a phenomenal third receiver, and just one of the most efficient WRs in the league period. He is lethal deep and few players are as fast as him (19.3 yards a catch!). The TE group is underwhelming, with Johnson being injured most of the year. He was a solid redzone weapon last year, but is ceding snaps to the mediocre Moreau. The backup WRs/TE leave a ton to be desired, Kirkwood and Bowden are practice squadees and the 37 year old Graham does not belong on an NFL roster.
Meanwhile, the Saints' offensive line is in bad shape. 2022 1st rounder Trevor Penning has been benched for longtime mediocre LG Andrus Peat. Peat was already an underwhelming guard and is now playing a far more difficult position he hasn't handled since college. That moved former tackle Hurst to LG (Vikings fans would be losing their mind with the T/G swaps), but he's a poor blocker too. McCoy has had an up-and-down season with elite run blocking grades, but bad pass protection. Ruiz has been consistently bad, yet was recently rewarded with a $40M extension. Ramcyzk's numbers have waned a bit, but he's still a great RT in both phases of the game.
Defensively, this is a strong unit, though it has a few holes. The top two pass rushers are crushing it, with Jordan still cruising in his 30s and Granderson hitting his prime. Kpassagnon has turned his career around after being a 2nd round bust with the Chiefs and is 3rd in pressures, proving to be a quality rotational rusher. They did lose some DT talent in free agency and felt the need to take Bresee in the 1st round, though while he has decent pass rush numbers, he's been poor against the run. Shepherd is built more like a nose tackle but is not stopping the run well, while Saunders is doing that better but is a total non-factor against the pass.
Demario Davis truly is a wonder and would be a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame if not for a mediocre first 5 years of his career - soon to turn 35, he's still playing at an elite level in a league where most "good" LBs fall off around age 29-31. The All-Pro is great in all phases, and even averages 4 sacks a year. His running mate Werner is fine, but hasn't quite lived up to the hype of his rookie year. Baun will clean up some snaps but they've preferred to use a 3rd safety over him.
The Saints' secondary has strong counting numbers, but PFF isn't too impressed. Lattimore gets dinged for shadowing #1 WRs but is still a very good player. Third year CB Adebo is having a breakout season with 4 interceptions and 11 knockdowns, standing out as one of the best #2 CBs in the league. Taylor is having a rough go as QBs are funneling passes to the WRs he covers. A similar prospect to Akayleb Evans, Taylor may need more time before panning out. Mathieu is another player who is still dealing in his 30s, especially as a tackler. Maye has had problems in coverage and tackling.
Prediction: Saints 23, Vikings 20
I nailed last week's prediction but I still feel I have no bearings on the Vikings with all of the chaos surrounding them. It's hard to know how Dobbs will play against a good defense, but they are weak to running QBs. Still, O'Connell seems likely to waste about 20 touches on Mattison and the Saints do have some weapons that can push our defense around. Flores has done a great job to cover up the personnel problems too. In the end, I think the Saints pull this one out but I'd have zero surprise if the Vikings pulled off yet another crazy win.
Any thoughts?
Line: Saints -3
SuperSim Calculated Line: Saints -4
Injury Report
Vikings
QB Hall - Out
WR Jefferson - Questionable
DL Lowry - Doubtful
ILB Asamoah - Questionable
TE Hockenson - Questionable
WR Osborn - Questionable
Saints
HB Miller - Out
DE Foskey - Out
*My Thoughts*
This Saints team is in an odd place - still somewhat in salary cap hell, the team continues to mortgage the future to now be about a .500 squad. With the NFC as weak as it is and an even weaker AFC South, that puts them in first place, but this roster has problems. They're paying Carr to get the offense to the next level, yet they're not any better than they were with Andy Dalton last year. So far Carr only has 10 TDs in 9 games and a paltry 6.7 YPA, but it's possible he starts to positively regress back to his Raiders numbers.
The running game hasn't been very effective this year with Alvin Kamara running at a 3.6 YPC and Jamaal Williams at a terrible 3.0. The OL hasn't run blocked well at all, and Kamara's bread butter is through the pass game (43 catches in 6 games!). Taysom Hill is the only one running well, as he's been a fantastic redzone weapon with almost 400 rushing+receiving yards and a handful of successful pass plays too. The 33 year old shows no signs of slowing down.
The receiving group feels like it should be better than this. Olave's numbers have dipped in recent weeks after a hot start to the year, but he'll get in the neighborhood of 10+ targets a game. Michael Thomas is finally for the first time in an eon, but he hasn't been the same Pro Bowler he was before, as he's more of a possession receiver now. Shaheed has been a phenomenal third receiver, and just one of the most efficient WRs in the league period. He is lethal deep and few players are as fast as him (19.3 yards a catch!). The TE group is underwhelming, with Johnson being injured most of the year. He was a solid redzone weapon last year, but is ceding snaps to the mediocre Moreau. The backup WRs/TE leave a ton to be desired, Kirkwood and Bowden are practice squadees and the 37 year old Graham does not belong on an NFL roster.
Meanwhile, the Saints' offensive line is in bad shape. 2022 1st rounder Trevor Penning has been benched for longtime mediocre LG Andrus Peat. Peat was already an underwhelming guard and is now playing a far more difficult position he hasn't handled since college. That moved former tackle Hurst to LG (Vikings fans would be losing their mind with the T/G swaps), but he's a poor blocker too. McCoy has had an up-and-down season with elite run blocking grades, but bad pass protection. Ruiz has been consistently bad, yet was recently rewarded with a $40M extension. Ramcyzk's numbers have waned a bit, but he's still a great RT in both phases of the game.
Defensively, this is a strong unit, though it has a few holes. The top two pass rushers are crushing it, with Jordan still cruising in his 30s and Granderson hitting his prime. Kpassagnon has turned his career around after being a 2nd round bust with the Chiefs and is 3rd in pressures, proving to be a quality rotational rusher. They did lose some DT talent in free agency and felt the need to take Bresee in the 1st round, though while he has decent pass rush numbers, he's been poor against the run. Shepherd is built more like a nose tackle but is not stopping the run well, while Saunders is doing that better but is a total non-factor against the pass.
Demario Davis truly is a wonder and would be a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame if not for a mediocre first 5 years of his career - soon to turn 35, he's still playing at an elite level in a league where most "good" LBs fall off around age 29-31. The All-Pro is great in all phases, and even averages 4 sacks a year. His running mate Werner is fine, but hasn't quite lived up to the hype of his rookie year. Baun will clean up some snaps but they've preferred to use a 3rd safety over him.
The Saints' secondary has strong counting numbers, but PFF isn't too impressed. Lattimore gets dinged for shadowing #1 WRs but is still a very good player. Third year CB Adebo is having a breakout season with 4 interceptions and 11 knockdowns, standing out as one of the best #2 CBs in the league. Taylor is having a rough go as QBs are funneling passes to the WRs he covers. A similar prospect to Akayleb Evans, Taylor may need more time before panning out. Mathieu is another player who is still dealing in his 30s, especially as a tackler. Maye has had problems in coverage and tackling.
Prediction: Saints 23, Vikings 20
I nailed last week's prediction but I still feel I have no bearings on the Vikings with all of the chaos surrounding them. It's hard to know how Dobbs will play against a good defense, but they are weak to running QBs. Still, O'Connell seems likely to waste about 20 touches on Mattison and the Saints do have some weapons that can push our defense around. Flores has done a great job to cover up the personnel problems too. In the end, I think the Saints pull this one out but I'd have zero surprise if the Vikings pulled off yet another crazy win.
Any thoughts?
... and neither is this Chris guy.