Post by Danchat on Nov 4, 2023 16:20:34 GMT -6
The Vikings are back in the playoff race, but without Cousins the road forward is very unclear. Can they beat a middling team on the road with a rookie QB? The Vikings haven't started a rookie QB since 2014, so who knows what will happen.
Line: Falcons -4
Super Sim Calculated Line: Falcons -1
Injury Report
Vikings
DE Lowry - Out
ILB Asamoah - Questionable
LT Darrisaw - Questionable
Falcons
S Hellams - Out
FB Smith - Out
WR London - Out
*My Thoughts *
By the way, I have plenty of thoughts on a podcast with the guys from Vikings Report here.
The Falcons have made the right move at QB to bench Ridder for Heinicke. Ridder has been playing like Jordan Love - consistently missing throws, holding on to the ball too long, and his plus mobility isn't enough to overcome such massive weaknesses. Heinicke has his own limitations but can at least get the passing game going to a certain degree. The issue is that stud WR Drake London is out of commission with a groin injury, giving him zero above average weapons to throw out (outside of RBs). Kyle Pitts is not the same player he was as a rookie and isn't generating separation like he previously was, while Jonnu Smith is a blocker first and average at best as a receiver. The rest of the WRs are mostly just guys - Van Jefferson is a nothing-burger while Hodge is a career special teamer. Hollins had a strong 2022 campaign with the Raiders but has been a non-factor, while Miller is a WR who couldn't gel with Brady in Tampa.
The running game is going to be the Falcons' bread and butter. They need to feed Bijan, who hasn't quite bloomed yet but can rip off long runs and is running at a 5+ YPC. Meanwhile, Allgeier had a quality rookie year but is only running at a 3.2 YPC clip and is hogging too many carries at Bijan's expense. Patterson is still running well in his 30s but isn't going to touch the ball much.
Atlanta's OL is a strong unit, with probably the best guard in the league at RG. Matthews has been consistently good at LT for many years now, while McGary recently had a breakout season and is now one of the better RTs. Dalman was a third round selection who seized the starting job last year and has been an elite run blocker but a minus pass protector (there really are a lot of centers with the Bradbury archetype, huh?). Second round rookie Bergeron is having a rough first year in both departments and can be picked on.
Defensively, this is a strong front seven but is missing a key component - a primary pass rusher. With Grady Jarrett on the IR, there is no lead player who is daunting to take on. Their interior is strong with the ageless Campbell turning in yet another great season, and the severely underrated Onyemata providing plus pass rush and run stuffing. The rest of the group isn't anything to write home about, but Harrison is a third rounder who could improve as the year goes on. The edge rushers are unit is isn't fear-inducing, as Ebikete is a quality secondary rusher, but Dupree is past his prime and Carter has been regressing.
The LB unit has been a big positive, as FA acquisition Elliss has continued playing well since looking good in his first major playing time with the Saints in 2022. Landman is even more unheralded as a 2022 UDFA, who is one of the highest ranked ILBs by PFF so far (though note the somewhat small sample size). These two have been paramount in maintaining one of the league's better run defenses.
Atlanta's secondary is solid, but it does have holes that the Titans exposed last year. The key name is Bates III, a top five safety in his prime who is a top tier back in coverage and is a proficient tackler. He is paired up with Grant, also a sound tackler but has received poor grades in coverage. The CBs have been up and down with Terrell not quite playing up to his 2021 magnum opus season, while Okudah is still mediocre despite being the #3 overall pick a few years ago. Alford is surprising with a highly rated season as a nickel CB despite being a 2022 UDFA.
Prediction: Vikings 17, Falcons 14
The Vikings defense is on fire and I don't think the Falcons have what it takes to overcome what Flores is throwing at opposing offenses. The formula to beating this unit is doing what the Chargers did - having receivers who can beat the coverage and a QB who can decisively hit them and negate the pass rush. The Falcons will set out to run the ball but the Vikings can pack the box and they've been stopping every running game not based in Philadelphia. Offensively, I think O'Connell can squeeze out just enough out of the passing game, mixing in some RPOs to make Hall somewhat of a threat. I expect this one to be a grind.
Any thoughts?
Line: Falcons -4
Super Sim Calculated Line: Falcons -1
Injury Report
Vikings
DE Lowry - Out
ILB Asamoah - Questionable
LT Darrisaw - Questionable
Falcons
S Hellams - Out
FB Smith - Out
WR London - Out
*My Thoughts *
By the way, I have plenty of thoughts on a podcast with the guys from Vikings Report here.
The Falcons have made the right move at QB to bench Ridder for Heinicke. Ridder has been playing like Jordan Love - consistently missing throws, holding on to the ball too long, and his plus mobility isn't enough to overcome such massive weaknesses. Heinicke has his own limitations but can at least get the passing game going to a certain degree. The issue is that stud WR Drake London is out of commission with a groin injury, giving him zero above average weapons to throw out (outside of RBs). Kyle Pitts is not the same player he was as a rookie and isn't generating separation like he previously was, while Jonnu Smith is a blocker first and average at best as a receiver. The rest of the WRs are mostly just guys - Van Jefferson is a nothing-burger while Hodge is a career special teamer. Hollins had a strong 2022 campaign with the Raiders but has been a non-factor, while Miller is a WR who couldn't gel with Brady in Tampa.
The running game is going to be the Falcons' bread and butter. They need to feed Bijan, who hasn't quite bloomed yet but can rip off long runs and is running at a 5+ YPC. Meanwhile, Allgeier had a quality rookie year but is only running at a 3.2 YPC clip and is hogging too many carries at Bijan's expense. Patterson is still running well in his 30s but isn't going to touch the ball much.
Atlanta's OL is a strong unit, with probably the best guard in the league at RG. Matthews has been consistently good at LT for many years now, while McGary recently had a breakout season and is now one of the better RTs. Dalman was a third round selection who seized the starting job last year and has been an elite run blocker but a minus pass protector (there really are a lot of centers with the Bradbury archetype, huh?). Second round rookie Bergeron is having a rough first year in both departments and can be picked on.
Defensively, this is a strong front seven but is missing a key component - a primary pass rusher. With Grady Jarrett on the IR, there is no lead player who is daunting to take on. Their interior is strong with the ageless Campbell turning in yet another great season, and the severely underrated Onyemata providing plus pass rush and run stuffing. The rest of the group isn't anything to write home about, but Harrison is a third rounder who could improve as the year goes on. The edge rushers are unit is isn't fear-inducing, as Ebikete is a quality secondary rusher, but Dupree is past his prime and Carter has been regressing.
The LB unit has been a big positive, as FA acquisition Elliss has continued playing well since looking good in his first major playing time with the Saints in 2022. Landman is even more unheralded as a 2022 UDFA, who is one of the highest ranked ILBs by PFF so far (though note the somewhat small sample size). These two have been paramount in maintaining one of the league's better run defenses.
Atlanta's secondary is solid, but it does have holes that the Titans exposed last year. The key name is Bates III, a top five safety in his prime who is a top tier back in coverage and is a proficient tackler. He is paired up with Grant, also a sound tackler but has received poor grades in coverage. The CBs have been up and down with Terrell not quite playing up to his 2021 magnum opus season, while Okudah is still mediocre despite being the #3 overall pick a few years ago. Alford is surprising with a highly rated season as a nickel CB despite being a 2022 UDFA.
Prediction: Vikings 17, Falcons 14
The Vikings defense is on fire and I don't think the Falcons have what it takes to overcome what Flores is throwing at opposing offenses. The formula to beating this unit is doing what the Chargers did - having receivers who can beat the coverage and a QB who can decisively hit them and negate the pass rush. The Falcons will set out to run the ball but the Vikings can pack the box and they've been stopping every running game not based in Philadelphia. Offensively, I think O'Connell can squeeze out just enough out of the passing game, mixing in some RPOs to make Hall somewhat of a threat. I expect this one to be a grind.
Any thoughts?
... and neither is this Chris guy.