Post by Uncle on Nov 2, 2023 17:33:05 GMT -6
College football teams at the FBS level typically play a 12-game regular season schedule broken up into thirds: 4 games in September....4 games in October...and 4 games in November...
...and with the calendar now turned to November, we're in the home stretch of the regular season, and with the release of the first CFP rankings this past week, it's a mad scramble down this "Final Third" of the season in November across all the Conferences to get in position for the Conference Championhips and for 4 lucky teams, the CFP...
Here's a quick glimpse of the top part of each of the Conferences to see which teams are in position to get their respective Conference Championship games:
With 4 weeks to go until the Conference Championships, there are still plenty of teams that could get one of the two spots for each of those games...and after Week 10 with some big Conference matchups, this list should get smaller and smaller...
....and with the sheer volume of key Conference games this weekend, Week 10 was nearly "Couch Potato Week 3.0", but the only matchup that was lacking was one matchup between two teams ranked in the Top 10 that would have significant CFP ramifications.
Still, this weekend is loaded with bigtime games and with the cool air settling-in across much of the US this week, it sets up perfectly to spend your entire Saturday watching some great College Football action!
![]()
Saturday, 11/4 - Early Afternoon Games
#23 Kansas St @ #7 Texas - Noon ET (FOX); spread is Texas -4
Not too long ago after Kansas St lost to Missouri & Oklahoma St and QB Will Howard was benched, everyone wrote them off as contenders in the BIG XII, but the Wildcats are back, mixing in both Will Howard and Avery Johnson and their offense has exploded the last two weeks as they beat TCU & Houston by a combined score of 82-3. With Texas & Oklahoma now with 1 loss, that brings everyone with 1 and 2 Conference losses back into the BIG XII Championship race, and the 2022 BIG XII Champions - Kansas St - are not going down without a fight. Texas lost start QB Quinn Ewers to a shoulder injury in Week 8 and backup QB Maalik Murphy was able to guide the Longhorns to a Week 9 victory of BYU, but this one will be much tougher and Murphy can't afford too many early stumbles vs the Wildcats. This is arguably the toughest test left for the Longhorns as they @ TCU, @ Iowa St and Texas Tech left on the schedule, but this line is only -4 for a reason.
#15 Notre Dame @ Clemson, Noon ET (ABC); spread is Notre Dame -3
Things have started to spiral out of control for Clemson HC Dabo Swinney as the Tigers are just 2-4 in the ACC and have lost 7 out of the last 14 games stretching back to the 2022 season, and just this past week Swinney made headlines when he exploded on a Clemson fan on a radio show. There are even some whispers that Clemson could be looking to "oust" Swinney at season's end and go in a different direction. But things in College Football can rapidly change week-to-week based on what happens on Saturdays and if the Tigers can pull off an upset win over a Top 15 team, that might keep Swinney in Death Valley for another year or two. He'll be looking to avenge last season's loss to the Fighting Irish in South Bend that was part of Notre Dame's turnaround after stumbling early in 2022. But Swinney won't be the only one with revenge on the mind as Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman lost a close one last year to Clemson while he was at Wake Forest and Hartman is another person who needs this win to cement his rapidly declining 2024 Draft stock. Technically, Notre Dame still could be alive for a CFP spot if a bunch of 1-loss teams ahead of them all get that 2nd loss because their 2 losses aren't too bad (nailbiter vs undefeated Ohio St and a road loss to Louisville who's ranked #13), but they can't afford any more slipups and need to not only win games, but win them impressively, which could spell bad news for Swinney and the Tigers.
Saturday, 11/4 - Mid-Afternoon Games
#12 Missouri @ #2 Georgia, 3:30PM ET (CBS); spread is Georgia -15.5
The Bulldogs have had it relatively easy in 2023, only played one ranked team (Kentucky who was 20th at the time) and a bunch of SEC East bottom-feeders and non-Power 5 cupcakes. Their 2023 was more backloaded and now that we're in the "Final Third", here comes the tougher matchups, beginning with #12 Missouri, who's been one of the surprises in College Football this year. Led by QB Brady Cook and WR Luther Burden III, the Tiger's offense is ranked 17th in the nation in passing and 27th in scoring, which was slightly similar to South Carolina who came into Athens and gave Georgia a fight for nearly 3 quarters. But unlike the Gamecocks, Missouri has a decent defense, ranked 54th and limiting opponents to just 23.2 pts per game. It's too bad that Missouri didn't get Georgia earlier in the schedule when the Bulldogs were still ironing-out the kinks of their offense under Carson Beck, but even without star TE Brock Bowers in the last couple games, Beck has started to put everything together and the Bulldog offense no longer relies on the "ground-n-pound" approach. Still though, the Tigers nearly shocked the College Football world in 2022 in Columbia when they nearly pulled off the upset and had the lead for nearly the whole game, and because they have a veteran QB in Brady Cook, it's possible they finish the job in 2023 if Carson Beck regresses at all. If Georgia wins this one, that might just lock up the SEC East and a spot in the SEC Championship game so the Tigers need to find a way to stay alive.
#9 Oklahoma @ #22 Oklahoma St, 3:30PM ET (ABC); "Bedlam Series Game", spread is Oklahoma -6
With Oklahoma moving to the SEC starting in 2024, this annual game will be shelved for a while, so you can bet that both teams will be looking to get bragging rights from this one. The Pokes started 2-2 and like Kansas St, were an afterthough in the BIG XII behind Oklahoma and Texas, but 4 straight wins behind RB Ollie Gordon II - who's averaging 24 carries and 196 yds, or 8 yards per carry, over the last 5 games - have moved Oklahoma St right back into Contention for the BIG XII, and you know that HC Mike Gundy would love nothing better than to beat his in-state rival on their way out the door. This game couldn't have come at a worse time for the Sooners, who had to eek out a win at home vs UCF and lost their first game of the season @ Kansas last week, and with the game @ Stillwater, it's going to be a very tough environment for Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners to win. I'm surprised the Sooners are favored by 6 in this one as all the momentum is with the Cowboys. Gabriel turned in a great performance in a bigtime rivalry game when he tossed that last-second TD to win the "Red River Showdown" game with Texas in Week 6 - he'll need to repeat that type of performance on Saturday, and then some...
Virginia Tech @ #13 Louisville, 3:30PM ET (ACC Network); spread is Louisville -9.5
The Hokes ended September 1-3 and no one had them doing anything in the ACC, but those losses weren't to ACC opponents and since they made the switch to duel-threat QB Kyron Drones, they've started playing like the "old" Virginia Tech teams. The Hokies only have 1 ACC loss - to #4 FSU - so this game could serve as an elimination game from the ACC Championship. The problem for the Hokies is that they are running into a Louisville team who shut out Duke last week 23-0 and have eyes for the ACC Championship themselves and could cement 2nd place with a win. The Cardinals are a balanced team featuring stars at the skill positions and a very well-coached defense that puts a significant amount of pressure on opposing QB's.
Saturday, 11/4 - Evening Games
#21 Kansas @ Iowa St, 7PM ET (ESPN); spread is Iowa St -2.5
Both of these teams enter this game on "highs": the Jayhawks for beating previously undefeated Oklahoma and getting back into the Top 25 (cementing another bowl game for the 2nd season in a row), and the Cyclones are coming off a 3-game winning streak and winning 3 out of their last 4, starting with a win @ a now red-hot Oklahoma St back in Week 4. Both of these teams are still alive to earn a place in the BIG XII Championship and this game will probably serve as a defacto elimination game. Kansas starting QB Jalon Daniels will probably still be out and with this game taking place under the lights in Ames, that could spell trouble for Kansas and keep the Cyclones alive in the BIG XII title race for another week.
#5 Washington @ #20 USC, 7:30PM ET (ABC), spread is Washington -3
With both QB's possibly being Rd 1 2024 prospects, you can bet that this game will have several NFL scouts (and possibly a few GM's and Asst coaches, too) in attendance. While all eyes will be on the performances of Michael Penix, Jr. and Caleb Williams, this game is actually a very significant game in terms of the PAC-12 Championship, as well as the CFP with Washington being undefeated. Even with the Trojans regressing this past month starting with a blowout loss to Notre Dame in Week 7, they only have 1 Conference Loss and are tied with Oregon for 2nd place behind the Huskies, so a win here would keep them right in the PAC-12 title hunt. The problem for the Trojans is that they have no defense, which has been exposed by the Fighting Irish, Utah and even California in Week 9. The Huskies haven't look too good for the past 2 weeks since that big win over Oregon, with close wins vs two bottom-feeding PAC-12 teams (Arizona St and Stanford). The pt total in this one is just 76.5 pts with this one shaping-up to be a scoring fest as both QB's look to "wow" scouts and possibly the Heisman Committee, too.
#14 LSU @ #8 Alabama, 7:45PM ET (CBS); spread is Alabama -3
The "Bayou Bengals" and the Crimson Tide typically meet on the first Saturday in November and yet again, these two teams meet in this matchup in primetime with plenty on the line. LSU, even after two early season losses to FSU and Ole Miss, still believe that if they run the table and beat Georgia in the SEC Championship, they could be the first 2-loss team to get into the CFP. They might have a case, but first things first, winning in Tuscaloosa. On the surface, this Crimson Tide team just doesn't seem that "special", but what they lack in star power at the offensive skill positions, they make up for in toughness at the lines, a tough defense and surprisingly good unit on Special Teams. If LSU wins and Ole Miss beats Texas A&M, that will cause a 3-way tie at the top of the SEC West with 3 weeks left, and if Alabama wins, they might be able to set themselves on cruise control with games vs Kentucky, Chattanooga and Auburn left. LSU QB Jayden Daniels has been putting up video game-like numbers this season and leads College Football's best offense vs a Top 15 Alabama defense...something has to give.
Saturday, 11/4 - Late Night Games
#16 Oregon St @ Colorado, 10PM ET (ESPN); spread is Oregon St -13
The Beavers have a good football team, and even though Coach Prime and the Buffaloes have lost that early-season "mojo", that line seems a bit too much. Oregon St has injury issues at the CB spot and with Coach Prime eager to get the Buffaloes to a bowl game, you can bet he's going to have Shedeur try and exploit that all night long in Boulder. Deion and Colorado were the talk of the Football world for nearly the entire month of September until they started going up against the likes of Oregon and USC, and I get the feeling we haven't heard the last of Coach Prime in 2023. I wouldn't be shocked to see Shedeur have a great game and outscore the Beavers to get closer to that bowl game dream in 2023.
#19 UCLA @ Arizona, 10:30PM ET (FS1); spread is UCLA -2.5
Some of the games in Week 10 may or may not be Conference Championship elimination games, but this one will definitely be just that: an elimination game. With 2 Conference losses for both teams, a third loss means they are eliminated from getting to the PAC 12 Championship so there is a bunch on the line in this "PAC-12 After Dark" game. Both teams weren't expected to do much this season and both have been pleasant surprises, w/ Arizona taking both Washington & USC down to the wire and then beating ranked teams in consecutive weeks (#19 Wshington St and #11 Oregon St), while UCLA has played a tough style of football with a very stout defense. Both teams are QB'd by freshman QB's and with UCLA's defense being Top 10 in several categories - including passing defense - that might give them the edge in this one.
...and with the calendar now turned to November, we're in the home stretch of the regular season, and with the release of the first CFP rankings this past week, it's a mad scramble down this "Final Third" of the season in November across all the Conferences to get in position for the Conference Championhips and for 4 lucky teams, the CFP...
Here's a quick glimpse of the top part of each of the Conferences to see which teams are in position to get their respective Conference Championship games:
With 4 weeks to go until the Conference Championships, there are still plenty of teams that could get one of the two spots for each of those games...and after Week 10 with some big Conference matchups, this list should get smaller and smaller...
....and with the sheer volume of key Conference games this weekend, Week 10 was nearly "Couch Potato Week 3.0", but the only matchup that was lacking was one matchup between two teams ranked in the Top 10 that would have significant CFP ramifications.
Still, this weekend is loaded with bigtime games and with the cool air settling-in across much of the US this week, it sets up perfectly to spend your entire Saturday watching some great College Football action!
Saturday, 11/4 - Early Afternoon Games
#23 Kansas St @ #7 Texas - Noon ET (FOX); spread is Texas -4
Not too long ago after Kansas St lost to Missouri & Oklahoma St and QB Will Howard was benched, everyone wrote them off as contenders in the BIG XII, but the Wildcats are back, mixing in both Will Howard and Avery Johnson and their offense has exploded the last two weeks as they beat TCU & Houston by a combined score of 82-3. With Texas & Oklahoma now with 1 loss, that brings everyone with 1 and 2 Conference losses back into the BIG XII Championship race, and the 2022 BIG XII Champions - Kansas St - are not going down without a fight. Texas lost start QB Quinn Ewers to a shoulder injury in Week 8 and backup QB Maalik Murphy was able to guide the Longhorns to a Week 9 victory of BYU, but this one will be much tougher and Murphy can't afford too many early stumbles vs the Wildcats. This is arguably the toughest test left for the Longhorns as they @ TCU, @ Iowa St and Texas Tech left on the schedule, but this line is only -4 for a reason.
#15 Notre Dame @ Clemson, Noon ET (ABC); spread is Notre Dame -3
Things have started to spiral out of control for Clemson HC Dabo Swinney as the Tigers are just 2-4 in the ACC and have lost 7 out of the last 14 games stretching back to the 2022 season, and just this past week Swinney made headlines when he exploded on a Clemson fan on a radio show. There are even some whispers that Clemson could be looking to "oust" Swinney at season's end and go in a different direction. But things in College Football can rapidly change week-to-week based on what happens on Saturdays and if the Tigers can pull off an upset win over a Top 15 team, that might keep Swinney in Death Valley for another year or two. He'll be looking to avenge last season's loss to the Fighting Irish in South Bend that was part of Notre Dame's turnaround after stumbling early in 2022. But Swinney won't be the only one with revenge on the mind as Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman lost a close one last year to Clemson while he was at Wake Forest and Hartman is another person who needs this win to cement his rapidly declining 2024 Draft stock. Technically, Notre Dame still could be alive for a CFP spot if a bunch of 1-loss teams ahead of them all get that 2nd loss because their 2 losses aren't too bad (nailbiter vs undefeated Ohio St and a road loss to Louisville who's ranked #13), but they can't afford any more slipups and need to not only win games, but win them impressively, which could spell bad news for Swinney and the Tigers.
Saturday, 11/4 - Mid-Afternoon Games
#12 Missouri @ #2 Georgia, 3:30PM ET (CBS); spread is Georgia -15.5
The Bulldogs have had it relatively easy in 2023, only played one ranked team (Kentucky who was 20th at the time) and a bunch of SEC East bottom-feeders and non-Power 5 cupcakes. Their 2023 was more backloaded and now that we're in the "Final Third", here comes the tougher matchups, beginning with #12 Missouri, who's been one of the surprises in College Football this year. Led by QB Brady Cook and WR Luther Burden III, the Tiger's offense is ranked 17th in the nation in passing and 27th in scoring, which was slightly similar to South Carolina who came into Athens and gave Georgia a fight for nearly 3 quarters. But unlike the Gamecocks, Missouri has a decent defense, ranked 54th and limiting opponents to just 23.2 pts per game. It's too bad that Missouri didn't get Georgia earlier in the schedule when the Bulldogs were still ironing-out the kinks of their offense under Carson Beck, but even without star TE Brock Bowers in the last couple games, Beck has started to put everything together and the Bulldog offense no longer relies on the "ground-n-pound" approach. Still though, the Tigers nearly shocked the College Football world in 2022 in Columbia when they nearly pulled off the upset and had the lead for nearly the whole game, and because they have a veteran QB in Brady Cook, it's possible they finish the job in 2023 if Carson Beck regresses at all. If Georgia wins this one, that might just lock up the SEC East and a spot in the SEC Championship game so the Tigers need to find a way to stay alive.
#9 Oklahoma @ #22 Oklahoma St, 3:30PM ET (ABC); "Bedlam Series Game", spread is Oklahoma -6
With Oklahoma moving to the SEC starting in 2024, this annual game will be shelved for a while, so you can bet that both teams will be looking to get bragging rights from this one. The Pokes started 2-2 and like Kansas St, were an afterthough in the BIG XII behind Oklahoma and Texas, but 4 straight wins behind RB Ollie Gordon II - who's averaging 24 carries and 196 yds, or 8 yards per carry, over the last 5 games - have moved Oklahoma St right back into Contention for the BIG XII, and you know that HC Mike Gundy would love nothing better than to beat his in-state rival on their way out the door. This game couldn't have come at a worse time for the Sooners, who had to eek out a win at home vs UCF and lost their first game of the season @ Kansas last week, and with the game @ Stillwater, it's going to be a very tough environment for Dillon Gabriel and the Sooners to win. I'm surprised the Sooners are favored by 6 in this one as all the momentum is with the Cowboys. Gabriel turned in a great performance in a bigtime rivalry game when he tossed that last-second TD to win the "Red River Showdown" game with Texas in Week 6 - he'll need to repeat that type of performance on Saturday, and then some...
Virginia Tech @ #13 Louisville, 3:30PM ET (ACC Network); spread is Louisville -9.5
The Hokes ended September 1-3 and no one had them doing anything in the ACC, but those losses weren't to ACC opponents and since they made the switch to duel-threat QB Kyron Drones, they've started playing like the "old" Virginia Tech teams. The Hokies only have 1 ACC loss - to #4 FSU - so this game could serve as an elimination game from the ACC Championship. The problem for the Hokies is that they are running into a Louisville team who shut out Duke last week 23-0 and have eyes for the ACC Championship themselves and could cement 2nd place with a win. The Cardinals are a balanced team featuring stars at the skill positions and a very well-coached defense that puts a significant amount of pressure on opposing QB's.
Saturday, 11/4 - Evening Games
#21 Kansas @ Iowa St, 7PM ET (ESPN); spread is Iowa St -2.5
Both of these teams enter this game on "highs": the Jayhawks for beating previously undefeated Oklahoma and getting back into the Top 25 (cementing another bowl game for the 2nd season in a row), and the Cyclones are coming off a 3-game winning streak and winning 3 out of their last 4, starting with a win @ a now red-hot Oklahoma St back in Week 4. Both of these teams are still alive to earn a place in the BIG XII Championship and this game will probably serve as a defacto elimination game. Kansas starting QB Jalon Daniels will probably still be out and with this game taking place under the lights in Ames, that could spell trouble for Kansas and keep the Cyclones alive in the BIG XII title race for another week.
#5 Washington @ #20 USC, 7:30PM ET (ABC), spread is Washington -3
With both QB's possibly being Rd 1 2024 prospects, you can bet that this game will have several NFL scouts (and possibly a few GM's and Asst coaches, too) in attendance. While all eyes will be on the performances of Michael Penix, Jr. and Caleb Williams, this game is actually a very significant game in terms of the PAC-12 Championship, as well as the CFP with Washington being undefeated. Even with the Trojans regressing this past month starting with a blowout loss to Notre Dame in Week 7, they only have 1 Conference Loss and are tied with Oregon for 2nd place behind the Huskies, so a win here would keep them right in the PAC-12 title hunt. The problem for the Trojans is that they have no defense, which has been exposed by the Fighting Irish, Utah and even California in Week 9. The Huskies haven't look too good for the past 2 weeks since that big win over Oregon, with close wins vs two bottom-feeding PAC-12 teams (Arizona St and Stanford). The pt total in this one is just 76.5 pts with this one shaping-up to be a scoring fest as both QB's look to "wow" scouts and possibly the Heisman Committee, too.
#14 LSU @ #8 Alabama, 7:45PM ET (CBS); spread is Alabama -3
The "Bayou Bengals" and the Crimson Tide typically meet on the first Saturday in November and yet again, these two teams meet in this matchup in primetime with plenty on the line. LSU, even after two early season losses to FSU and Ole Miss, still believe that if they run the table and beat Georgia in the SEC Championship, they could be the first 2-loss team to get into the CFP. They might have a case, but first things first, winning in Tuscaloosa. On the surface, this Crimson Tide team just doesn't seem that "special", but what they lack in star power at the offensive skill positions, they make up for in toughness at the lines, a tough defense and surprisingly good unit on Special Teams. If LSU wins and Ole Miss beats Texas A&M, that will cause a 3-way tie at the top of the SEC West with 3 weeks left, and if Alabama wins, they might be able to set themselves on cruise control with games vs Kentucky, Chattanooga and Auburn left. LSU QB Jayden Daniels has been putting up video game-like numbers this season and leads College Football's best offense vs a Top 15 Alabama defense...something has to give.
Saturday, 11/4 - Late Night Games
#16 Oregon St @ Colorado, 10PM ET (ESPN); spread is Oregon St -13
The Beavers have a good football team, and even though Coach Prime and the Buffaloes have lost that early-season "mojo", that line seems a bit too much. Oregon St has injury issues at the CB spot and with Coach Prime eager to get the Buffaloes to a bowl game, you can bet he's going to have Shedeur try and exploit that all night long in Boulder. Deion and Colorado were the talk of the Football world for nearly the entire month of September until they started going up against the likes of Oregon and USC, and I get the feeling we haven't heard the last of Coach Prime in 2023. I wouldn't be shocked to see Shedeur have a great game and outscore the Beavers to get closer to that bowl game dream in 2023.
#19 UCLA @ Arizona, 10:30PM ET (FS1); spread is UCLA -2.5
Some of the games in Week 10 may or may not be Conference Championship elimination games, but this one will definitely be just that: an elimination game. With 2 Conference losses for both teams, a third loss means they are eliminated from getting to the PAC 12 Championship so there is a bunch on the line in this "PAC-12 After Dark" game. Both teams weren't expected to do much this season and both have been pleasant surprises, w/ Arizona taking both Washington & USC down to the wire and then beating ranked teams in consecutive weeks (#19 Wshington St and #11 Oregon St), while UCLA has played a tough style of football with a very stout defense. Both teams are QB'd by freshman QB's and with UCLA's defense being Top 10 in several categories - including passing defense - that might give them the edge in this one.
... and neither is this Chris guy.