2023 College Football - Week 8: Couch Potato Week 2.0
Oct 19, 2023 13:26:01 GMT -6
FSUVike likes this
Post by Uncle on Oct 19, 2023 13:26:01 GMT -6
When you look at the College slate of games for Week 8, at first glance, it doesn't pop out at you and say "must-see-TV"...
...but when you consider what's at stake for some of these games (CFP implications...Conference Championship game implications...etc.), there's certinly more than meets the eye for Week 8.
As a reminder, here's my personal criteria for what I consider a "Couch Potato Week" (ie, a week where you absolutely have to watch some College Football):
- At least 3 matchups where both teams are ranked in the Top 25
- Anticipated matchups at all three time slots (Noon ET start time, 3:30PM ET start times and 7:00PM ET start times)
- Anticipated matchups must include multiple Conferences
- At least 1 matchup with significant Playoff implications for both teams
Week 8 ticks all the boxes above: we get 4 matchups between ranked teams across all 3 time slots involving various Conferences and the Noon ET game between Penn St/Ohio St obviously has significant CFP ramifications...
It's official...you can now start your weekend planning...go to the store/butcher and grab some meat for the smoker...think about what type of drink you're gonna crack open during the games...and make sure you get control of the TV because these types of weeks don't come around very often..
Saturday, 10/21 - Early Afternoon Games
#7 Penn St @ #3 Ohio St - Noon ET (FOX) - BI0 Game of the Year 1.0; spread is Ohio St -4
We've had a Top 10 team go down each week of this College Football season w/ the lone exception of Week 3:
Week 1: #5 LSU lost to #8 FSU, and #9 Clemson lost to Duke
Week 2: #3 Alabama lost to #11 Texas
Week 4: #9 Notre Dame lost to #6 Ohio St
Week 5: #10 Utah lost to #19 Oregon St
Week 6: #3 Texas lost to #12 Oklahoma, and #10 Notre Dame lost to #25 Louisville
Week 7: #8 Oregon lost to #7 Washington, and #10 USC lost to #21 Notre Dame
...and now that we have another matchup of two teams ranked in the Top 10 (for the 2nd week in a row), Week 8 will continue that trend.
If Penn St happens to win this matchup in Columbus, then that will setup a massive game with Michigan in Happy Valley on 11/11. If Ohio St wins it, then the annual rivalry game between Ohio St/Michigan will probably decide 1 of the 4 CFP spots (sorry to whomever wins the BI0 West, currently Iowa is in the lead)...so to say there are significant CFP ramifications is somewhat of an understatement. Penn St's defense is one of, if not the, best in the nation: #1 in sacks...#1 in TFL...#1 in total defense...#2 in pass defense, etc. And the Nittany Lion's OL is probably a Top 10 unit, as well. So although they don't have too many household/star names on offense like Ohio St, they have a very well-balanced team that gets the job done and will certainly attempt to harass Ohio St QB Kyle McCord, who will face his biggest test since the road game at Notre Dame Stadium in Week 4. If Penn St's defense shuts down the Buckeyes run game, it'll be up to McCord and the offensive skill position players to try and create some big plays in what should be a low-scoring slugfest inside "The Shoe". For Vikings fans, keep your eyes on the Nittany Lions defense and keep some of those names locked into your memory because we may be wanting them come Draft season, especially EDGE Chop Robinson and EDGE Adisa Isaac. The Buckeyes are no slouches on defense, either, and here's a couple names to keep in mind: CB Denzel Burke, DT Tyleik Williams and DE JT Tuimoloau.
Saturday, 10/21 - Mid-Afternoon Games
Washington St @ #9 Oregon - 3:30PM ET (ABC); spread is Oregon -20
The Cougars were flying high after the first 4 weeks with wins over Wisconsin and a tough Oregon St team, but consecutive losses to UCLA and Arizona have derailed the hype train just a bit, especially the loss to Arizona last week which wasn't even close, 44-6. Wash St QB Cam Ward hasn't played at the level he did early in the season and their defense has especially fallen off a bit, and they better get it together quickly because Oregon is coming off a tough loss to Washington and will look to get back on track this week. I'm especially interested to see if Bo Nix can keep his solid-level of play on track because I feel this is exactly the spot where the Duck suffer a bit of a letdown in previous seasons. Washington St is still a good team and if the Ducks aren't playing at the level they did last week in Washington, the Cougars have the ability to spring the upset here. The Ducks are not out of CFP contention as they can still play their way into the PAC-12 Championship and that narrow road loss to Washington shouldn't hurt them in the eyes of the CFP Committee so the focus should still be on the grand prize in Eugene.
#17 Tennessee @ #11 Alabama - 3:30PM ET (CBS); spread is Alabama -9
Last week, Alabama got up early on Arkansas and then took their foot off the gas pedal and the Razorbacks nearly pulled it out in the 4th. The Crimson Tide aren't good enough to keep teams hanging around, and even though Tennessee isn't what it was last season, they have a solid defense and a potent-enough offense to pull of the road win in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide just don't have the star players at the skill positions to score out of nowhere and they play the ball-control approach game with the limitations they have at QB so they need to play from the lead and not let Tennessee HC Josh Heupel dictate the flow of the game. On the other side, the Volunteers have quietly crept back into the conversation in the SEC East after getting their doors blown off in "The Swamp" earlier in the season w/ solid home wins vs South Carolina and Texas A&M, and with only that 1 loss on their resume, if they win this game, they certainly get themselves into CFP conversations with games @ Missouri and vs Georgia still on the schedule. The winner of this game between two 1-loss teams keeps their 2023 CFP dreams alive, while the loser is out of the CFP and probably out of contention for a spot in the SEC Championship.
South Carolina @ #20 Missouri - 3:30PM ET (SEC Network); spread is Missouri -7
The Gamecocks are only 2-4 this year as they don't have a defense or an OL. The one thing they do have is a QB who's playing really well: Spencer Rattler, even despite the poor OL in front of him. Missouri's defense isn't anything to write home about either, especially after allowing LSU to run up and down the field at-will in Week 6, so this one could turn into a nice QB shootout battle in Columbia. Missouri has been one of the bright spots in the SEC this year as they've improved to 6-1 after a road win vs a ranked Kentucky team last week, and with their big test coming next week in Athens vs the #1 ranked Bulldogs, they could be looking beyond Rattler and the Gamecocks, which might be a mistake. If Missouri stays focused, that will set up a bigtime SEC East showdown in Week 9 "between the hedges".
Saturday, 10/21 - Evening Games
#16 Duke @ #4 Florida St - 7:30PM ET (ABC); spread is FSU -14.5
FSU and North Carolina seem destined for a bigtime clash in the ACC Championship with a spot in the CFP on the line, and while both teams still have to get there to make that a reality, there's another undefeated team in ACC-play who could spoil that scenario: Duke. The big question coming into this one will be Duke QB Riley Leonard and if he'll be able to play, and if so, how healthy he will be. Leonard suffered a high ankle sprain in the home loss to Notre Dame in Week 5 and he didn't play last week in their win vs NC State. I believe Leonard's status is "day-to-day" and even if he does end up playing, he probably won't be 100% and since part of his game involves his legs (ie, I still think he's Daniel Jones 2.0), he'll be relatively limited to the pocket. For Duke to pull this off, they'll need to rely heavily on their defense which isn't a bad strategy since the Blue Devil's defense allows less than 10 pts a game. The big thing for them is red zone defense and keeping their opponents out of the end zone as Duke currently has the 2nd-best red zone scoring defense in the country. The key for FSU is not to do too much, no penalties and let the game come to them. I didn't like the gameplan FSU had @ Clemson earlier in the season as QB Jordan Travis threw deep ball after deep ball unsuccessfully, until they finally completed one in OT. The Seminole offense is going to have to use the intermediate and short routes to move the chains and take their shots to their WR's when the 1-on-1 opportunities present themselves on play-action. This could be a game that shows NFL-level "football IQ"/prowess for FSU QB Jordan Travis and after a few quiet weeks of wins vs VT and Syracuse, he could jump out again on the national stage in primetime. Duke has never beaten FSU - their all-time record is 0-21....and for them to get that 1st ever victory, the defense is going to have to play light's out and Travis will probably have to make some mistakes.
#14 Utah @ #18 USC - 8PM ET (FOX); spread is USC -6.5
Speaking of QB's returning from injury, we're still waiting for Utah QB Cam Rising to make his 2023 season debut. It's a small miracle that the Utes have been able to cobble together a 5-1 record without Rising because their backup QB's are not very good in terms of their ability to move the ball with the pass. Instead, Utah HC Kyle Whittingham has relied on the tough Utah defense to carry the team in the 1st half of the season: the Utes defense is 2nd-best in run defense and 5th best in scoring defense, allowing only 12.1 pts per game. And when it comes to tough defenses, we all know what happened last week in South Bend when Caleb Williams threw 3 INT's in the 1st half against the Fighting Irish. You can bet that Whittingham is going to try to unleash the hounds on Williams in LA this week in hopes of using Notre Dame's blueprint to slowdown the Trojan attack. Watch out for Utah DE/EDGE Jonah Elliss - currently the PAC-12 leader in sacks (9). UNC QB Drake Maye is right on the heels of Caleb Williams for that QB1 spot in the 2024 Draft and if Williams has another repeat performance of what happened last week and Maye lights it up vs Virginia, the questions surrounding who's the top QB in the 2024 Draft will only intensify. USC will have a bit of "revenge" on their minds as Utah beat them twice last season to take down the PAC-12 Title and go to the Rose Bowl. Utah has won the last 3 meetings: @ USC in 2021 (42-26); @ Utah in 2022 (43-42) and in the 2022 PAC-12 Championship (47-24). I don't think Utah will be getting to 40+ pts in this one without Rising, so it'll have to be a 24-21 type of win with some big defensive stops if they hope to keep their CFP hopes alive.
...but when you consider what's at stake for some of these games (CFP implications...Conference Championship game implications...etc.), there's certinly more than meets the eye for Week 8.
As a reminder, here's my personal criteria for what I consider a "Couch Potato Week" (ie, a week where you absolutely have to watch some College Football):
- At least 3 matchups where both teams are ranked in the Top 25
- Anticipated matchups at all three time slots (Noon ET start time, 3:30PM ET start times and 7:00PM ET start times)
- Anticipated matchups must include multiple Conferences
- At least 1 matchup with significant Playoff implications for both teams
Week 8 ticks all the boxes above: we get 4 matchups between ranked teams across all 3 time slots involving various Conferences and the Noon ET game between Penn St/Ohio St obviously has significant CFP ramifications...
It's official...you can now start your weekend planning...go to the store/butcher and grab some meat for the smoker...think about what type of drink you're gonna crack open during the games...and make sure you get control of the TV because these types of weeks don't come around very often..
Saturday, 10/21 - Early Afternoon Games
#7 Penn St @ #3 Ohio St - Noon ET (FOX) - BI0 Game of the Year 1.0; spread is Ohio St -4
We've had a Top 10 team go down each week of this College Football season w/ the lone exception of Week 3:
Week 1: #5 LSU lost to #8 FSU, and #9 Clemson lost to Duke
Week 2: #3 Alabama lost to #11 Texas
Week 4: #9 Notre Dame lost to #6 Ohio St
Week 5: #10 Utah lost to #19 Oregon St
Week 6: #3 Texas lost to #12 Oklahoma, and #10 Notre Dame lost to #25 Louisville
Week 7: #8 Oregon lost to #7 Washington, and #10 USC lost to #21 Notre Dame
...and now that we have another matchup of two teams ranked in the Top 10 (for the 2nd week in a row), Week 8 will continue that trend.
If Penn St happens to win this matchup in Columbus, then that will setup a massive game with Michigan in Happy Valley on 11/11. If Ohio St wins it, then the annual rivalry game between Ohio St/Michigan will probably decide 1 of the 4 CFP spots (sorry to whomever wins the BI0 West, currently Iowa is in the lead)...so to say there are significant CFP ramifications is somewhat of an understatement. Penn St's defense is one of, if not the, best in the nation: #1 in sacks...#1 in TFL...#1 in total defense...#2 in pass defense, etc. And the Nittany Lion's OL is probably a Top 10 unit, as well. So although they don't have too many household/star names on offense like Ohio St, they have a very well-balanced team that gets the job done and will certainly attempt to harass Ohio St QB Kyle McCord, who will face his biggest test since the road game at Notre Dame Stadium in Week 4. If Penn St's defense shuts down the Buckeyes run game, it'll be up to McCord and the offensive skill position players to try and create some big plays in what should be a low-scoring slugfest inside "The Shoe". For Vikings fans, keep your eyes on the Nittany Lions defense and keep some of those names locked into your memory because we may be wanting them come Draft season, especially EDGE Chop Robinson and EDGE Adisa Isaac. The Buckeyes are no slouches on defense, either, and here's a couple names to keep in mind: CB Denzel Burke, DT Tyleik Williams and DE JT Tuimoloau.
Saturday, 10/21 - Mid-Afternoon Games
Washington St @ #9 Oregon - 3:30PM ET (ABC); spread is Oregon -20
The Cougars were flying high after the first 4 weeks with wins over Wisconsin and a tough Oregon St team, but consecutive losses to UCLA and Arizona have derailed the hype train just a bit, especially the loss to Arizona last week which wasn't even close, 44-6. Wash St QB Cam Ward hasn't played at the level he did early in the season and their defense has especially fallen off a bit, and they better get it together quickly because Oregon is coming off a tough loss to Washington and will look to get back on track this week. I'm especially interested to see if Bo Nix can keep his solid-level of play on track because I feel this is exactly the spot where the Duck suffer a bit of a letdown in previous seasons. Washington St is still a good team and if the Ducks aren't playing at the level they did last week in Washington, the Cougars have the ability to spring the upset here. The Ducks are not out of CFP contention as they can still play their way into the PAC-12 Championship and that narrow road loss to Washington shouldn't hurt them in the eyes of the CFP Committee so the focus should still be on the grand prize in Eugene.
#17 Tennessee @ #11 Alabama - 3:30PM ET (CBS); spread is Alabama -9
Last week, Alabama got up early on Arkansas and then took their foot off the gas pedal and the Razorbacks nearly pulled it out in the 4th. The Crimson Tide aren't good enough to keep teams hanging around, and even though Tennessee isn't what it was last season, they have a solid defense and a potent-enough offense to pull of the road win in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide just don't have the star players at the skill positions to score out of nowhere and they play the ball-control approach game with the limitations they have at QB so they need to play from the lead and not let Tennessee HC Josh Heupel dictate the flow of the game. On the other side, the Volunteers have quietly crept back into the conversation in the SEC East after getting their doors blown off in "The Swamp" earlier in the season w/ solid home wins vs South Carolina and Texas A&M, and with only that 1 loss on their resume, if they win this game, they certainly get themselves into CFP conversations with games @ Missouri and vs Georgia still on the schedule. The winner of this game between two 1-loss teams keeps their 2023 CFP dreams alive, while the loser is out of the CFP and probably out of contention for a spot in the SEC Championship.
South Carolina @ #20 Missouri - 3:30PM ET (SEC Network); spread is Missouri -7
The Gamecocks are only 2-4 this year as they don't have a defense or an OL. The one thing they do have is a QB who's playing really well: Spencer Rattler, even despite the poor OL in front of him. Missouri's defense isn't anything to write home about either, especially after allowing LSU to run up and down the field at-will in Week 6, so this one could turn into a nice QB shootout battle in Columbia. Missouri has been one of the bright spots in the SEC this year as they've improved to 6-1 after a road win vs a ranked Kentucky team last week, and with their big test coming next week in Athens vs the #1 ranked Bulldogs, they could be looking beyond Rattler and the Gamecocks, which might be a mistake. If Missouri stays focused, that will set up a bigtime SEC East showdown in Week 9 "between the hedges".
Saturday, 10/21 - Evening Games
#16 Duke @ #4 Florida St - 7:30PM ET (ABC); spread is FSU -14.5
FSU and North Carolina seem destined for a bigtime clash in the ACC Championship with a spot in the CFP on the line, and while both teams still have to get there to make that a reality, there's another undefeated team in ACC-play who could spoil that scenario: Duke. The big question coming into this one will be Duke QB Riley Leonard and if he'll be able to play, and if so, how healthy he will be. Leonard suffered a high ankle sprain in the home loss to Notre Dame in Week 5 and he didn't play last week in their win vs NC State. I believe Leonard's status is "day-to-day" and even if he does end up playing, he probably won't be 100% and since part of his game involves his legs (ie, I still think he's Daniel Jones 2.0), he'll be relatively limited to the pocket. For Duke to pull this off, they'll need to rely heavily on their defense which isn't a bad strategy since the Blue Devil's defense allows less than 10 pts a game. The big thing for them is red zone defense and keeping their opponents out of the end zone as Duke currently has the 2nd-best red zone scoring defense in the country. The key for FSU is not to do too much, no penalties and let the game come to them. I didn't like the gameplan FSU had @ Clemson earlier in the season as QB Jordan Travis threw deep ball after deep ball unsuccessfully, until they finally completed one in OT. The Seminole offense is going to have to use the intermediate and short routes to move the chains and take their shots to their WR's when the 1-on-1 opportunities present themselves on play-action. This could be a game that shows NFL-level "football IQ"/prowess for FSU QB Jordan Travis and after a few quiet weeks of wins vs VT and Syracuse, he could jump out again on the national stage in primetime. Duke has never beaten FSU - their all-time record is 0-21....and for them to get that 1st ever victory, the defense is going to have to play light's out and Travis will probably have to make some mistakes.
#14 Utah @ #18 USC - 8PM ET (FOX); spread is USC -6.5
Speaking of QB's returning from injury, we're still waiting for Utah QB Cam Rising to make his 2023 season debut. It's a small miracle that the Utes have been able to cobble together a 5-1 record without Rising because their backup QB's are not very good in terms of their ability to move the ball with the pass. Instead, Utah HC Kyle Whittingham has relied on the tough Utah defense to carry the team in the 1st half of the season: the Utes defense is 2nd-best in run defense and 5th best in scoring defense, allowing only 12.1 pts per game. And when it comes to tough defenses, we all know what happened last week in South Bend when Caleb Williams threw 3 INT's in the 1st half against the Fighting Irish. You can bet that Whittingham is going to try to unleash the hounds on Williams in LA this week in hopes of using Notre Dame's blueprint to slowdown the Trojan attack. Watch out for Utah DE/EDGE Jonah Elliss - currently the PAC-12 leader in sacks (9). UNC QB Drake Maye is right on the heels of Caleb Williams for that QB1 spot in the 2024 Draft and if Williams has another repeat performance of what happened last week and Maye lights it up vs Virginia, the questions surrounding who's the top QB in the 2024 Draft will only intensify. USC will have a bit of "revenge" on their minds as Utah beat them twice last season to take down the PAC-12 Title and go to the Rose Bowl. Utah has won the last 3 meetings: @ USC in 2021 (42-26); @ Utah in 2022 (43-42) and in the 2022 PAC-12 Championship (47-24). I don't think Utah will be getting to 40+ pts in this one without Rising, so it'll have to be a 24-21 type of win with some big defensive stops if they hope to keep their CFP hopes alive.
... and neither is this Chris guy.