Post by whoskmoon on Oct 16, 2023 14:35:07 GMT -6
Across the NFL there are certain players that if a team were to lose them, that team would have almost no shot at making the playoffs, let alone win once they got there. Most of those players are QBs, with Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow being first and foremost among them. Very few are wide receivers, and unfortunately for the Vikings, they lost one of those very important wide receivers last week against the Chiefs.
So it was no surprise that the Vikings offense took a hit when facing the Bears this Sunday, how big of a hit is.
Going into week 6, the Vikings offense was averaging the following numbers per drive. Included are the rest of the leagues numbers for context.
The Vikings had been moving the ball really well through five weeks, coming in at 5th in yards per drive. Scoring wasn't even that bad considering the turnover issues, and that 14th ranking is pretty typical of this offense since 2018. Statistically, even with the turnovers the Vikings looked better than the 2022 season and it is entirely possible this offense could have been top 10 by the end of the year, even if it was somehow lagging behind the Bears and Cardinals in scoring five weeks in.
So, with the Bears coming in boasting the 27th best defense in yards per drive and 29th in points per drive, even with Justin Jefferson out this offense should have been able to at least match their season average. This is one of the worst defenses they will face after all, and with the offensive line playing really well outside of the right guard position, the highest paid tight end in football still out there along with a rookie wide receiver playing really well besides KJ who is still an okay number three option, there is no reason the Vikings shouldn't have been able to dominate offensively. Unless JJ really is just that good and was hiding a lot of flaws with the scheme, run game, QB or a combination of those three that is.
Fast forward to after the week 6 win, where the offense scored twelve points and maybe JJ is just that good. Here are the drive stats for week six compared to weeks 1-5:
Note: The ranking next to the week six numbers are what the Vikings week six numbers would be compared to the rest of the league through five weeks. Also, included in the points per drive was the missed extra point, since that miss was not on the offense. The missed 57 yard FG was not included, because that is not an easily makeable FG.
This is worse than even the most pragmatic Vikings fan would have ever predicted. The Vikings weren't facing a top three defense on Sunday, that comes next week when they play the 49ers, they were facing the second worst defense they have gone up against this season and the third worst defense they will face all year. Yet despite that, they put up numbers worse than the horrifically bad Patriots offense.
So what happened? Did Kevin O'Connell change his play calling completely with Justin Jefferson out, or is Jefferson the only reason his play calling was working to begin with? Or is it possible Jefferson was hiding some serious flaws with the QB? Likely the answer is both. Digging into the passing and rushing numbers from the game, the Vikings got bad games from both their running backs and their QB:
*ADOT: Average depth of target
*BTT: Big Time Throw - PFF's definition of a well timed and placed pass, typically downfield.
*TTT: Time to throw
Note: The rushing yards and attempt numbers are only for the Vikings' running backs.
Here we see that the Vikings passing game has become very conservative in the absence of Jefferson. That ADOT of 6.3, would be dead last among active qualifying QBs this year, and there is not a QB in the NFL who has attempted fewer than two deep attempts per game, making the Vikings one attempt to throw beyond 20 yards really standout. As for the run game, it was even worse than the passing game, but it has been worse than this in the past with JJ on the field, and the Vikings still managed more than 13 points.
The Vikings had better hope that this was a fluke, or just a division rival knowing better than anyone how to shut their offense down with their biggest test of the season coming on Monday against the 49ers. A solid offensive performance against them would be a huge win for this offense and the coaching staff in particular. It seems unlikely after the horrible performance against the Bears, and there is a good chance that after week two without JJ, fans are clamoring to give him whatever the heck he wants in a contract.
So it was no surprise that the Vikings offense took a hit when facing the Bears this Sunday, how big of a hit is.
Going into week 6, the Vikings offense was averaging the following numbers per drive. Included are the rest of the leagues numbers for context.
The Vikings had been moving the ball really well through five weeks, coming in at 5th in yards per drive. Scoring wasn't even that bad considering the turnover issues, and that 14th ranking is pretty typical of this offense since 2018. Statistically, even with the turnovers the Vikings looked better than the 2022 season and it is entirely possible this offense could have been top 10 by the end of the year, even if it was somehow lagging behind the Bears and Cardinals in scoring five weeks in.
So, with the Bears coming in boasting the 27th best defense in yards per drive and 29th in points per drive, even with Justin Jefferson out this offense should have been able to at least match their season average. This is one of the worst defenses they will face after all, and with the offensive line playing really well outside of the right guard position, the highest paid tight end in football still out there along with a rookie wide receiver playing really well besides KJ who is still an okay number three option, there is no reason the Vikings shouldn't have been able to dominate offensively. Unless JJ really is just that good and was hiding a lot of flaws with the scheme, run game, QB or a combination of those three that is.
Fast forward to after the week 6 win, where the offense scored twelve points and maybe JJ is just that good. Here are the drive stats for week six compared to weeks 1-5:
Note: The ranking next to the week six numbers are what the Vikings week six numbers would be compared to the rest of the league through five weeks. Also, included in the points per drive was the missed extra point, since that miss was not on the offense. The missed 57 yard FG was not included, because that is not an easily makeable FG.
This is worse than even the most pragmatic Vikings fan would have ever predicted. The Vikings weren't facing a top three defense on Sunday, that comes next week when they play the 49ers, they were facing the second worst defense they have gone up against this season and the third worst defense they will face all year. Yet despite that, they put up numbers worse than the horrifically bad Patriots offense.
So what happened? Did Kevin O'Connell change his play calling completely with Justin Jefferson out, or is Jefferson the only reason his play calling was working to begin with? Or is it possible Jefferson was hiding some serious flaws with the QB? Likely the answer is both. Digging into the passing and rushing numbers from the game, the Vikings got bad games from both their running backs and their QB:
*ADOT: Average depth of target
*BTT: Big Time Throw - PFF's definition of a well timed and placed pass, typically downfield.
*TTT: Time to throw
Note: The rushing yards and attempt numbers are only for the Vikings' running backs.
Here we see that the Vikings passing game has become very conservative in the absence of Jefferson. That ADOT of 6.3, would be dead last among active qualifying QBs this year, and there is not a QB in the NFL who has attempted fewer than two deep attempts per game, making the Vikings one attempt to throw beyond 20 yards really standout. As for the run game, it was even worse than the passing game, but it has been worse than this in the past with JJ on the field, and the Vikings still managed more than 13 points.
The Vikings had better hope that this was a fluke, or just a division rival knowing better than anyone how to shut their offense down with their biggest test of the season coming on Monday against the 49ers. A solid offensive performance against them would be a huge win for this offense and the coaching staff in particular. It seems unlikely after the horrible performance against the Bears, and there is a good chance that after week two without JJ, fans are clamoring to give him whatever the heck he wants in a contract.
... and neither is this Chris guy.