Post by Purple Pain on Oct 11, 2023 11:06:30 GMT -6
JJ is basically the whole team. Now what? Who steps up? Everyone?! Anyone?!
Matt Fries: Is Jordan Addison Ready To Step Up In Justin Jefferson's Absence?
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As always, film study and analysis from Matt Fries at the link above. ^^^
Arif Hasan: Justin Jefferson Injury - What We Can Learn From The Coverage
Matt Fries: Is Jordan Addison Ready To Step Up In Justin Jefferson's Absence?
By missing at least four games, Jefferson creates a massive hole that the team needs to fill. He’s the NFL’s leader in receiving yards in 2022 and currently third in 2023. Highly paid TE T.J. Hockenson will help fill in some of that gap, but answers also need to come from the receiver group. K.J. Osborn has played over 90% of the snaps for the Vikings so far this year, but he’s a tertiary option in the passing game. The team will primarily be counting on rookie first-round pick Jordan Addison, who has played about two-thirds of the snaps this year, to step up and assume a full time role at WR to help replace Jefferson.
Addison has been fairly productive as a change-up in an offense that heavily features Jefferson. He’s eclipsed 50 receiving yards in four out of five games, and finished with six receptions for 64 yards and a TD on a season-high nine targets in Week 5. He’s been a strong performer for a rookie, but does he have the capacity to step up and fill in a bigger role? I went to the tape to investigate.
Addison has been fairly productive as a change-up in an offense that heavily features Jefferson. He’s eclipsed 50 receiving yards in four out of five games, and finished with six receptions for 64 yards and a TD on a season-high nine targets in Week 5. He’s been a strong performer for a rookie, but does he have the capacity to step up and fill in a bigger role? I went to the tape to investigate.
CONCLUSION
With Justin Jefferson missing significant time, the Minnesota Vikings are going to ask their rookie first round pick, Jordan Addison, to step up at WR. Addison has shown a lot of promise throughout five weeks. He has good speed, is a great route runner, and has shown sure hands, with zero drops in 27 targets, per PFF.
Because he has shown the ability to get open with route running, Addison’s game should stand up to taking on a full time role. However, he’s not a well-rounded player at this point. He shows some positives but generally struggles against press, and has been a negative as a blocker. He will need some help to avoid getting pressed, and should not be asked to take on a significant role blocking.
Hopefully, Addison’s game will benefit from being pushed into a full time role. Minnesota’s offense will likely suffer in the short term without one of the best players in the game on the field, but it could benefit the team in the long term if giving Addison more responsibility helps him improve his game.
With Justin Jefferson missing significant time, the Minnesota Vikings are going to ask their rookie first round pick, Jordan Addison, to step up at WR. Addison has shown a lot of promise throughout five weeks. He has good speed, is a great route runner, and has shown sure hands, with zero drops in 27 targets, per PFF.
Because he has shown the ability to get open with route running, Addison’s game should stand up to taking on a full time role. However, he’s not a well-rounded player at this point. He shows some positives but generally struggles against press, and has been a negative as a blocker. He will need some help to avoid getting pressed, and should not be asked to take on a significant role blocking.
Hopefully, Addison’s game will benefit from being pushed into a full time role. Minnesota’s offense will likely suffer in the short term without one of the best players in the game on the field, but it could benefit the team in the long term if giving Addison more responsibility helps him improve his game.
As always, film study and analysis from Matt Fries at the link above. ^^^
Arif Hasan: Justin Jefferson Injury - What We Can Learn From The Coverage
How Can the Vikings Replace Jefferson?
In one sense, the Vikings clearly cannot replace Jefferson. As Will Ragatz pointed out last year, Jefferson’s impact on the offense is nearly as large as a starting quality, low-level quarterback, which is unique for a receiver. His PFF Wins Above Replacement – a measure of how many wins above replacement a player contributes – has been higher than nearly any other non-quarterback in the league at 0.71 for the 2023 season.
That might seem low, but the dominance of quarterbacks and the large number of football players involved in any game depress that number for any elite non-quarterback. If each game contains about half a win for an entire football team and an average starting quarterback constitutes about 0.08 of that half-win, then the other 25 players who can make an impact the game will contribute, on average, 0.017 wins.
That tells us that Jefferson is 2.5 times more valuable than the average football player in Wins Above Replacement. In that context, it makes even if it likely is still a bit lower than I’d estimate.
Either way, that makes replacing him tough. Alec Lewis at the Athletic estimates that K.J. Osborn will “replace” Jefferson in the offense, essentially meaning that he’ll be tasked with running routes from the same positions as Jefferson but won’t take on the same role in the offense.
That means he’ll be lined up on the line of scrimmage with the responsibility of taking on press coverage while players like Jordan Addison can still take advantage of the off-the-line status of flankers and slot receivers to dial up deep shots.
In all likelihood, T.J. Hockenson will likely see his route depth change to accommodate the fact that he can no longer act as an underneath outlet to pull coverage away from Jefferson. Instead, he will have to play a more primary role in the offense, which would mean taking advantage of his athletic talent.
There’s also some chance that the Vikings play with their two tight ends more often, with Josh Oliver expanding his role to include more pass-catching. While that has been a frustrating experience so far, he has demonstrated that base skill set and has the athleticism to be effective in that capacity.
Those two will play a big role in redesigning the offense for the next few weeks without Jefferson available, but the burden might ultimately fall on Addison to produce big plays.
As Dane Mizutani at the Pioneer Press points out, it won’t be as simple as redistributing targets among the available pass catchers. Jefferson had such gravity that it altered coverage and opened space for other receivers. Without that effect, it will be tough to find space. The passing efficiency will naturally suffer even as the Vikings find a way to make do.
In one sense, the Vikings clearly cannot replace Jefferson. As Will Ragatz pointed out last year, Jefferson’s impact on the offense is nearly as large as a starting quality, low-level quarterback, which is unique for a receiver. His PFF Wins Above Replacement – a measure of how many wins above replacement a player contributes – has been higher than nearly any other non-quarterback in the league at 0.71 for the 2023 season.
That might seem low, but the dominance of quarterbacks and the large number of football players involved in any game depress that number for any elite non-quarterback. If each game contains about half a win for an entire football team and an average starting quarterback constitutes about 0.08 of that half-win, then the other 25 players who can make an impact the game will contribute, on average, 0.017 wins.
That tells us that Jefferson is 2.5 times more valuable than the average football player in Wins Above Replacement. In that context, it makes even if it likely is still a bit lower than I’d estimate.
Either way, that makes replacing him tough. Alec Lewis at the Athletic estimates that K.J. Osborn will “replace” Jefferson in the offense, essentially meaning that he’ll be tasked with running routes from the same positions as Jefferson but won’t take on the same role in the offense.
That means he’ll be lined up on the line of scrimmage with the responsibility of taking on press coverage while players like Jordan Addison can still take advantage of the off-the-line status of flankers and slot receivers to dial up deep shots.
In all likelihood, T.J. Hockenson will likely see his route depth change to accommodate the fact that he can no longer act as an underneath outlet to pull coverage away from Jefferson. Instead, he will have to play a more primary role in the offense, which would mean taking advantage of his athletic talent.
There’s also some chance that the Vikings play with their two tight ends more often, with Josh Oliver expanding his role to include more pass-catching. While that has been a frustrating experience so far, he has demonstrated that base skill set and has the athleticism to be effective in that capacity.
Those two will play a big role in redesigning the offense for the next few weeks without Jefferson available, but the burden might ultimately fall on Addison to produce big plays.
As Dane Mizutani at the Pioneer Press points out, it won’t be as simple as redistributing targets among the available pass catchers. Jefferson had such gravity that it altered coverage and opened space for other receivers. Without that effect, it will be tough to find space. The passing efficiency will naturally suffer even as the Vikings find a way to make do.
... and neither is this Chris guy.