Post by Uncle on Sept 28, 2023 4:43:37 GMT -6
In the world of sports betting, "home dogs" often refers to underdog teams playing at home against a better opponent, which creates favorable spreads for betting on the home team because of the general notion that home-field advantage yields an advantage.
While it's still somewhat unproven that betting "home dogs" is a profitable strategy, what is certain is that Week 5 of the 2023 College Football season has plenty of matchups that involve ranked teams going on the road to play unranked / lower-ranked Conference opponents. Out of the 16 Week 5 matchups that involve ranked teams, only 4 (or 25%) of them feature the home team being ranked or the higher-ranked team (if the matchup is between two ranked teams)...
...and because there has been at least one Top 10 ranked team falling in 3 out of the first 4 weeks, there's a very good chance that one or more of these matchups will result in some "home dogs" showing their opponents that they bit off more than they could chew...
Friday, 9/29 - Evening Games
Louisville @ NC State - 7PM ET (ESPN); spread is Louisville -3
If you can't wait for College Football on Saturday, there's a nice little Friday night lineup this week, kicking-off with the nation's 5th best offense in Louisville traveling to Raleigh to take on the Wolfpack. Former Louisville QB and current HC Jeff Brohm has brought the offense back to Louisville and they're off to a 4-0 start, one of six unbeaten teams in the ACC - the most undefeated teams of any FBS Conference. The Cardinals feature a potent running game to compliment Brohm's pass-happy attack and have several ways to carve up teams, like Boston College found out in Week 4. The Wolfpack defense counters with NFL LB prospect Payton Wilson: a 6"4" 238 lb linebacker who might not only be the best LB in the ACC, but perhaps the top LB in the 2024 Draft. The Wolfpack are going to need to score points to keep up in this one, though.
#10 Utah @ #19 Oregon State - 9PM ET (FS1); spread is Oregon St -3.5
The question heading into this interesting PAC-12 primetime matchup is: will he, or won't he? That's the question everyone is asking regarding Utah QB Cam Rising who hasn't played a snap in 2023 while recovering from a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl game vs Penn St. Utah's defense - one of the best in the nation - has carried them to a 4-0 start with nice wins over Florda, Baylor and UCLA, but if they're going to win on the road in Corvalis, they're going to need Rising. The Beavers came up short on the Palouse in Week 4 after falling behind Washington St, but they are a very good, all-around team that should be able to hang with any PAC-12 team. This should be a tough, hard-hitting affair and if Rising does start in this one, he might wish he took another week to heal up.
Saturday, 9/30 - Early Afternoon Games
#8 USC @ Colorado - Noon ET (FOX); spread is USC -21.5
Last week, the Ducks were favored by 3 TD's vs Colorado and ended up thrashing the Buffaloes by 36 pts, taking all the air out of this once highly-anticipated matchup. You know USC HC Lincoln Riley and QB Caleb Williams saw how poorly Colorado's defense played and will be licking their chops to do the same. The problem - as is always the case with Riley Lincoln teams - is that the Trojans once again have no defense of their own and needed nearly the entire game to put away Arizona St in Week 4. With both defenses not exactly playing well, both QB's should have a field day and it could turn into a very interesting QB battle. Coach Prime was recently quoted as saying he doesn't want Sheduer being a "backseat rider" or "being a two to nobody", regarding Shedeur often ranked behind Caleb Williams in terms of 2024 QB rankings. Well, as the "Nature Boy" Ric Flair always said, "to be the man, you gotta beat the man", and right now, Caleb Williams is certainly "the man" in terms of the top overall QB prospect in the 2024 Draft. You want your son to take that title Coach Prime? He has the opportunity to prove it on the field vs Williams this Saturday and all of us will get the pleasure of enjoying the view from the backseat of these two highly-regarded QB prospects dooking it out.
#22 Florida @ Kentucky - Noon ET (ESPN); spread is Kentucky -2.5
The Gators are the ranked team here playing a non-ranked team, so why is the non-ranked team favored? That shows you two things: 1) Vegas still believes that home-field advantage is worth something, and 2) Vegas doesn't believe in this Florida football team. This will be the first time that the Wildcats will get to play a decent team after opening up against 3 "cupcakes" and then Vanderbilt - the SEC East "doormat" - so we'll get to see if Kentucky is a "real" team this season or not. Meanwhile, the attraction for the Gators is WR Ricky Pearsall, who may have had the "catch of the year" in the College Football last week and did his best Justin Jeffreson impression:
Saturday, 9/29 - Mid-Afternoon Game
#24 Kansas @ #3 Texas - 3:30PM ET (ABC); spread is Texas -16.5
This may be a bit of a "trap" game for the Longhorns as they look forward to the Red River Showdown game with Oklahoma in Week 6, but they can't look ahead because Kansas has had a hot start to the 2023 season and is no slouch. The Jayhawks are led by their speedy, sparkplug of a QB Jalon Daniels, who's a bit of a UDFA prospect in 2024, but is picking up where he left off in 2022: playing up-tempo and beating teams with his arm and legs. Texas flexed its strong OL/DL's during their Week 2 win at Alabama and they should enjoy a significant advantage in the trenches. These teams have played some really good games in the recent past and Texas has looked slow to start their games this season so if Kansas catches them off-guard in the 1st half, I'm not so sure Texas cover this spread. If Texas QB Quinn Ewers is a legitimate Day 1/Day 2 QB prospect like the media claim, they'll need him play a consistent 60-min game to get past this scrappy Kansas team.
Saturday, 9/29 - Evening Games
#13 LSU @ #20 Ole Miss - 6PM ET (ESPN); spread is LSU -2.5
After their disappointing Week 5 showing in Tuscaloosa, the Rebels return home to face another SEC West powerhouse in LSU. The Tigers were a popular Playoff pick by the "experts" to start the season but the "shine" has faded after the Week 1 loss to FSU and a "squeaker" of a game vs Arkansas in Week 4. On paper, this game seriously favors LSU as they have won 6 out of the last 7 meetings vs Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin has a terrible record vs teams that win 9+ games (it still remains to be seen if LSU wins 9+ games this season), but why are they only favored by 2.5? The Tiger's defense has been "leaky" this season to say the least and even though Ole Miss had a poor showing vs Alabama last week, they still rank 2nd in the SEC in yards-per-play. If LSU loses this one, their Playoff bubble would be popped due to that loss in Week 1 - Kiffin had a chance to knock Alabama out last week and failed; can he redeem himself in Week 5 vs the "Bayou Bengals"?
#11 Notre Dame @ #17 Duke - 7:30PM ET (ABC); spread is Notre Dame -5.5
After last week's gutpunch of a loss vs Ohio St, the Fighting Irish have no time to feel bad about themselves as they are now in the midst of a 4-game stretch vs tough opponents they face in prime time: vs Ohio St, @ Duke, @ Louisville and vs USC. When the schedule came out, I'm not sure many Irish fans saw the back-to-back games @ Duke and @ Louisville as tough matchups, much less in primetime. On top of that, ESPN's College Gameday will eminate from Durham, NC and that will rile the "Dookie" fans up that much more. After Duke's upset win at home vs Clemson in Week 1, they've been on a roll; beating-up on "cupcakes" like a good team should. The one weakness on Duke's team is their run defense and that's one thing the Irish are good at as they lean on their OL and run game. If Duke QB Riley Leonard is going to garner Day 1 "hype" for the 2024 Draft, he's going to need to shine in games like this, much like Hendon Hooker did last season at home vs Alabama. These are two, well-coached teams that play solid football and this game should be close. I can't see Notre Dame winning all of their next 3 games and they could very well lose all 3, so much like LSU, Notre Dame's Playoff dreams could be dashed in Week 5.
South Carolina @ #21 Tennessee - 7:30PM ET (SEC Network); spread is Tennessee -12
Last season, the Volunteers were the "darlings" of the College Football world as Hendon Hooker and the 1-loss Tennessee team rolled into a late season matchup vs the Gamecocks in Columbia, still having dreams of a Playoff spot even after their loss in Athens to eventual National Champion Georgia two weeks prior...and those dreams came crashing down when they ran into a sudden buzzsaw of a South Carolina team that rolled them 63-38. Not only did Tennessee lose that one, that was the game Hendon Hooker suffered his ACL injury. South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler broke out in that game and hasn't looked back since as his good play has continued into the first 4 weeks of the '23 season, despite a poor OL in front of him. Tennessee will be looking for a bit of revenge for that late-season beatdown in 2022, but I'm not a believer in Tennessee Joe Milton III, who hasn't ran Josh Heupel's offense anywhere near as efficent as Hooker ran it last year. Let's see if the Volunteers can get back some of that "magic" they had in 2022 on Rocky Top.
While it's still somewhat unproven that betting "home dogs" is a profitable strategy, what is certain is that Week 5 of the 2023 College Football season has plenty of matchups that involve ranked teams going on the road to play unranked / lower-ranked Conference opponents. Out of the 16 Week 5 matchups that involve ranked teams, only 4 (or 25%) of them feature the home team being ranked or the higher-ranked team (if the matchup is between two ranked teams)...
...and because there has been at least one Top 10 ranked team falling in 3 out of the first 4 weeks, there's a very good chance that one or more of these matchups will result in some "home dogs" showing their opponents that they bit off more than they could chew...
Friday, 9/29 - Evening Games
Louisville @ NC State - 7PM ET (ESPN); spread is Louisville -3
If you can't wait for College Football on Saturday, there's a nice little Friday night lineup this week, kicking-off with the nation's 5th best offense in Louisville traveling to Raleigh to take on the Wolfpack. Former Louisville QB and current HC Jeff Brohm has brought the offense back to Louisville and they're off to a 4-0 start, one of six unbeaten teams in the ACC - the most undefeated teams of any FBS Conference. The Cardinals feature a potent running game to compliment Brohm's pass-happy attack and have several ways to carve up teams, like Boston College found out in Week 4. The Wolfpack defense counters with NFL LB prospect Payton Wilson: a 6"4" 238 lb linebacker who might not only be the best LB in the ACC, but perhaps the top LB in the 2024 Draft. The Wolfpack are going to need to score points to keep up in this one, though.
#10 Utah @ #19 Oregon State - 9PM ET (FS1); spread is Oregon St -3.5
The question heading into this interesting PAC-12 primetime matchup is: will he, or won't he? That's the question everyone is asking regarding Utah QB Cam Rising who hasn't played a snap in 2023 while recovering from a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl game vs Penn St. Utah's defense - one of the best in the nation - has carried them to a 4-0 start with nice wins over Florda, Baylor and UCLA, but if they're going to win on the road in Corvalis, they're going to need Rising. The Beavers came up short on the Palouse in Week 4 after falling behind Washington St, but they are a very good, all-around team that should be able to hang with any PAC-12 team. This should be a tough, hard-hitting affair and if Rising does start in this one, he might wish he took another week to heal up.
Saturday, 9/30 - Early Afternoon Games
#8 USC @ Colorado - Noon ET (FOX); spread is USC -21.5
Last week, the Ducks were favored by 3 TD's vs Colorado and ended up thrashing the Buffaloes by 36 pts, taking all the air out of this once highly-anticipated matchup. You know USC HC Lincoln Riley and QB Caleb Williams saw how poorly Colorado's defense played and will be licking their chops to do the same. The problem - as is always the case with Riley Lincoln teams - is that the Trojans once again have no defense of their own and needed nearly the entire game to put away Arizona St in Week 4. With both defenses not exactly playing well, both QB's should have a field day and it could turn into a very interesting QB battle. Coach Prime was recently quoted as saying he doesn't want Sheduer being a "backseat rider" or "being a two to nobody", regarding Shedeur often ranked behind Caleb Williams in terms of 2024 QB rankings. Well, as the "Nature Boy" Ric Flair always said, "to be the man, you gotta beat the man", and right now, Caleb Williams is certainly "the man" in terms of the top overall QB prospect in the 2024 Draft. You want your son to take that title Coach Prime? He has the opportunity to prove it on the field vs Williams this Saturday and all of us will get the pleasure of enjoying the view from the backseat of these two highly-regarded QB prospects dooking it out.
#22 Florida @ Kentucky - Noon ET (ESPN); spread is Kentucky -2.5
The Gators are the ranked team here playing a non-ranked team, so why is the non-ranked team favored? That shows you two things: 1) Vegas still believes that home-field advantage is worth something, and 2) Vegas doesn't believe in this Florida football team. This will be the first time that the Wildcats will get to play a decent team after opening up against 3 "cupcakes" and then Vanderbilt - the SEC East "doormat" - so we'll get to see if Kentucky is a "real" team this season or not. Meanwhile, the attraction for the Gators is WR Ricky Pearsall, who may have had the "catch of the year" in the College Football last week and did his best Justin Jeffreson impression:
Saturday, 9/29 - Mid-Afternoon Game
#24 Kansas @ #3 Texas - 3:30PM ET (ABC); spread is Texas -16.5
This may be a bit of a "trap" game for the Longhorns as they look forward to the Red River Showdown game with Oklahoma in Week 6, but they can't look ahead because Kansas has had a hot start to the 2023 season and is no slouch. The Jayhawks are led by their speedy, sparkplug of a QB Jalon Daniels, who's a bit of a UDFA prospect in 2024, but is picking up where he left off in 2022: playing up-tempo and beating teams with his arm and legs. Texas flexed its strong OL/DL's during their Week 2 win at Alabama and they should enjoy a significant advantage in the trenches. These teams have played some really good games in the recent past and Texas has looked slow to start their games this season so if Kansas catches them off-guard in the 1st half, I'm not so sure Texas cover this spread. If Texas QB Quinn Ewers is a legitimate Day 1/Day 2 QB prospect like the media claim, they'll need him play a consistent 60-min game to get past this scrappy Kansas team.
Saturday, 9/29 - Evening Games
#13 LSU @ #20 Ole Miss - 6PM ET (ESPN); spread is LSU -2.5
After their disappointing Week 5 showing in Tuscaloosa, the Rebels return home to face another SEC West powerhouse in LSU. The Tigers were a popular Playoff pick by the "experts" to start the season but the "shine" has faded after the Week 1 loss to FSU and a "squeaker" of a game vs Arkansas in Week 4. On paper, this game seriously favors LSU as they have won 6 out of the last 7 meetings vs Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin has a terrible record vs teams that win 9+ games (it still remains to be seen if LSU wins 9+ games this season), but why are they only favored by 2.5? The Tiger's defense has been "leaky" this season to say the least and even though Ole Miss had a poor showing vs Alabama last week, they still rank 2nd in the SEC in yards-per-play. If LSU loses this one, their Playoff bubble would be popped due to that loss in Week 1 - Kiffin had a chance to knock Alabama out last week and failed; can he redeem himself in Week 5 vs the "Bayou Bengals"?
#11 Notre Dame @ #17 Duke - 7:30PM ET (ABC); spread is Notre Dame -5.5
After last week's gutpunch of a loss vs Ohio St, the Fighting Irish have no time to feel bad about themselves as they are now in the midst of a 4-game stretch vs tough opponents they face in prime time: vs Ohio St, @ Duke, @ Louisville and vs USC. When the schedule came out, I'm not sure many Irish fans saw the back-to-back games @ Duke and @ Louisville as tough matchups, much less in primetime. On top of that, ESPN's College Gameday will eminate from Durham, NC and that will rile the "Dookie" fans up that much more. After Duke's upset win at home vs Clemson in Week 1, they've been on a roll; beating-up on "cupcakes" like a good team should. The one weakness on Duke's team is their run defense and that's one thing the Irish are good at as they lean on their OL and run game. If Duke QB Riley Leonard is going to garner Day 1 "hype" for the 2024 Draft, he's going to need to shine in games like this, much like Hendon Hooker did last season at home vs Alabama. These are two, well-coached teams that play solid football and this game should be close. I can't see Notre Dame winning all of their next 3 games and they could very well lose all 3, so much like LSU, Notre Dame's Playoff dreams could be dashed in Week 5.
South Carolina @ #21 Tennessee - 7:30PM ET (SEC Network); spread is Tennessee -12
Last season, the Volunteers were the "darlings" of the College Football world as Hendon Hooker and the 1-loss Tennessee team rolled into a late season matchup vs the Gamecocks in Columbia, still having dreams of a Playoff spot even after their loss in Athens to eventual National Champion Georgia two weeks prior...and those dreams came crashing down when they ran into a sudden buzzsaw of a South Carolina team that rolled them 63-38. Not only did Tennessee lose that one, that was the game Hendon Hooker suffered his ACL injury. South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler broke out in that game and hasn't looked back since as his good play has continued into the first 4 weeks of the '23 season, despite a poor OL in front of him. Tennessee will be looking for a bit of revenge for that late-season beatdown in 2022, but I'm not a believer in Tennessee Joe Milton III, who hasn't ran Josh Heupel's offense anywhere near as efficent as Hooker ran it last year. Let's see if the Volunteers can get back some of that "magic" they had in 2022 on Rocky Top.
...huh?
... and neither is this Chris guy.