The Big If ... Would Vikes and Cousins want to move on?

When Kirk Cousins heard about Andrew Luck using a flip phone, he thought that might be a good idea for him. He went to the store, confused the heck out of the employee and walked out with something straight outta 2003. While the Kirk flip phone era only lasted a few days before he decided to go back, he returned to the modern age with a lot fewer apps that would tell him what the outside world was saying about his team and his play.

“I don’t really have access to a whole lot, and I try to do that by design, so it’s pretty intentional,” Cousins explained. “Aside from high school friends who may text me what they’re reading, and I text them back, ‘I prefer to remain ignorant, so I would appreciate not getting texts.’ So aside from that, I really don’t know what’s going on. I’ve been insulated at times to the point of being naïve and a little stupid, but I’d rather err on that side than consuming everything and having to, again, it takes your focus away from what is important.”

So when Cousins was asked on Wednesday about the daily TV talking point about him being traded at the deadline, that was breaking news to him. He joked that he only gets his information from other players in the locker room.

“Usually I have to find out from word of mouth like it’s the 1800s,” Cousins said.

In last summer’s Netflix documentary Quarterback we got an inside view of all the things Cousins does mentally and physically in order to perform at a high level. It doesn’t come as a surprise that he would try to cut himself off from the outside world in order to avoid distractions.

“When I read Andrew Luck doing that, it registered more with me than it probably would with most people,” Cousins said. “What’s most important is what I’m always going to prioritize and allow there to be some sacrifices around that.”

Regardless of whether he is paying attention to fake trade proposals that have him headed to the Jets or not, the Vikings’ veteran quarterback is no doubt aware that his team is 1-4 and one more loss will turn a difficult climb to the postseason into Mount Everest.

This is a familiar place for Cousins. In between stories about his phone plan, he ran through the different times that his clubs have been in trouble out of the gate and gotten themselves back into the race. His first full season as a starter, 2015, began with just two wins in the first six games before Cousins pulled off his memorable “you like that” win over the Buccaneers and then got on a roll. In the final 10 games of that year he went 7-3 and threw 23 touchdowns to just three interceptions with an outrageous 119.1 quarterback rating. In 2020 and 2021 the Vikings got off to slow starts and were still playing for a playoff spot in the final weeks.

“You understand there’s a lot of football ahead and that ultimately that will drive it,” Cousins said. “But you can’t keep saying that, you’ve gotta do it. You’ve gotta go change it and win it.”

Whether a trade is realistic or not, the chances of Cousins playing in Minnesota after this season get lower and lower with each loss and the discussion about the team’s shortcomings in terms of postseason success during his era as Vikings quarterback gets louder. The tally if they do not make the playoffs this year will be one postseason win in six years. Regardless of how much blame belongs on whose shoulders — and there is plenty to go around — the bar was set much higher when they signed Cousins in 2018 than two postseason appearances.

Last year Cousins put together a bunch of gritty and clutch performances that began to change the perception of him as a quarterback. In The Athletic’s yearly poll of NFL coaches and executives on quarterbacks he was ranked higher than ever. But the team falling short to the mediocre Giants meant dropping his change-the-narrative 2022 in the full bucket of recent seasons that came short.

Now Cousins is staring down one last opportunity to change that.

Well, only if they win this week. If not Cousins could be getting a message via carrier pigeon that he’s being asked to waive his no-trade clause.

As they head to Chicago, there remains a scenario where Cousins pulls off another mid-season comeback and rekindles some of 2022’s end-of-game magic. Throughout his career there have been plenty of impressive streaks. Following his blazing run to the playoffs in 2015 with Washington, he won six of eight in the middle of the ‘16 season, four-of-six between weeks 5 and 11 in 2018, eight-of-10 from October to December in 2019, four-of-five in 2020 to get back to .500 and a 10-2 record to start last year.

If Cousins is going to repeat those runs of hot play, he will have to get it started without the NFL’s best receiver.

And it’s going to take true franchise quarterback level play. The Vikings’ defense is improved but they aren’t going to pull off game-changing picks and sacks at the rate they did in 2022. So far the defense has just three turnovers caused, second fewest in the league, and 13 sacks, which is tied for 17th. They are fifth worst in Expected Points Added in passing defense. The 2017 defense isn’t walking through that door to guide the offense to victory each week.

Whether a miraculous comeback from 1-4 to the postseason would change the Vikings’ future at quarterback is unknown. Cousins is not getting younger or cheaper and the front office appears to have its plan to draft a QB next year. But he would leave a lasting impression and make a statement about his time in Minnesota. Whether he has a flip phone or an iPhone 14, Cousins has to be aware of that.

“There’s still a lot in front of us — A lot of football,” Cousins said. “There’s so much to play for, and that’s really what we know to be true and why there’s all the more urgency going into this week.”

Do the Vikings Trade Kirk Cousins?

Assuming that they were a team willing to recognize that the season was over and was willing to maximize their 2024, they may want to begin trading assets.

As a number of commentators have pointed out, it’s not as simple as finding a trade partner who needs a quarterback and then figuring out the fair market value for Cousins. Cousins has to want the trade. Not only is that the case for all of the normal reasons – you want players you acquire to want to be there, especially when they take on leadership roles – but he has a no-trade clause.

In effect, the no-trade clause doesn’t matter because quarterbacks will almost never be traded to a team they don’t want to go to, but it does provide formal leverage instead of informal leverage.

As Seifert pointed out, a team would have to put together an attractive package for Cousins, who has long valued security and assurance that he will be recognized as the leader of the team. That would make it difficult for the Jets, who have significant guaranteed money committed to Aaron Rodgers and can’t really ensure that Cousins will be considered the long-term leader.

On top of that, Cousins would have to know he can produce in a contract year. It’s difficult to do that mid-season – Carson Palmer’s trade to the Oakland Raiders is a good case study – but especially when there’s not much reason to be confident in the offensive coordinator or reason to believe that the system will be easy to pick up.

Nathaniel Hackett doesn’t seem to be doing a wonderful job designing the Jets offense, but even if that weren’t the case, Cousins would need to know that the shared West Coast principles of the Shanahan offenses that the Hackett and O’Connell offenses derive from have enough in common for him to pick it up.

That’s one reason we likely won’t see band-aid solutions for teams like the Denver Broncos, who don’t run an offense with that lineage. It could open things up for the Atlanta Falcons, however, who have a good receiving corps, a great running back room, a solid offensive line and a strong defense.

Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk expressed skepticism. Lewis didn’t but also didn’t suggest that it was likely, instead arguing that the Falcons made the most sense because of their cap room. Of course, Atlanta would have to feel as if they couldn’t snag one of the top-flight draft prospects at quarterback in this year’s draft if they were to do something like that.

More likely, as Ragatz suggested, would be a fire sale of other assets. He identifies Danielle Hunter and Jordan Hicks as potential trade bait. While I’m skeptical that Hicks could provide much return, Hunter would be an interesting asset to sell if it really is the case that he can’t see eye to eye with the Minnesota front office.

Ultimately, that seems unlikely to me as well – they view Hunter as a long-term piece regardless of the size of their window.