Purple Path Forward - Week 2 @ Eagles
Someone please tell me about how great the Eagles defense is, I haven’t heard gushing platitudes about them in at least 15 seconds. Yeah, the Eagles D-Line is good and generated a lot of pressure (37.7% pressure rate, 4th highest in week 1), and stuffed the Patriots run game. And while they were being good and generating all that pressure, Mac Jones threw for 316 yards (3rd highest of his career) and 3 TDs (tied career high) while the Patriots offense outscored the Eagles offense 20-18.
The 2023 Vikings defense matches up better against Hurts than the 2022 defense and the Eagles can be beaten over the top. To win, the Vikings will need to make some strategic changes, but they have the personnel to do so.
Eagles Offense vs Vikings Defense
The Eagles only scored 18 points on offense in week 1. They weren’t exactly a juggernaut.
But the Eagles offense is intimidating because they have two great receivers and an QB who was in the MVP conversation. The Patriots neutralized both of those advantages with the same strategy. In 2022, Hurts looked like he was playing loose and easy, he never seemed to force a throw because he always had a running lane to take. I did not see those same running lanes against the Patriots.
The knock on Jalen Hurts in 2022 was that the Eagles were giving him extremely simple reads and there were questions on if he could handle more complexity. The 2022 Vikings were exhibit A in giving Hurts simple reads, this 2023 team should present him with more complexity. This is where I think the Vikings approach I saw against the Bucs will carry over. Despite all their aggression and movement, they were able to react to screens and QB runs pretty quickly; they weren’t over pursuing or leaving large chunks of the field undefended.
A major difference between 2022 and 2023 that I’m looking at is which WR should I be watching. In 2022, Devonta Smith was the bigger threat. The Vikings weren’t great against slot routes where Smith excels. With the change in defensive approach, AJ Brown is much more dangerous – I’m sure he’ll get a few 1:1 chances. The Patriots didn’t shut down AJ Brown, but they did hold him to 7 catches with a long of 23 yards by forcing fast decisions from Hurts; if the Vikings can follow that template, the Vikings Defense vs Eagles offense can at least be a close matchup. Even if this matchup tilts slightly in favor of the Eagles, I still think the Vikings can win because…
Vikings Offense vs Eagles Defense
Is change good or bad?
Quick level set: which team experienced more defensive turnover: the Eagles or Vikings?
The Vikings returned 5 starters: Harrison Phillips, Danielle Hunter, Jordan Hicks, Harrison Smith, Cam Bynum. And, Akayleb Evans was almost the 6th starter; he took over as a starter from Dantzler before his season was derailed by concussions.
The Eagles Lost: both Safeties (Marcus Epps and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson), both starting LBs (TJ Edwards and Kyzir White), DT Jason Hargrave. They also lost both coordinators to head coaching positions.
BUT! Don’t the Eagles have a lot of draft picks? Here to talk about how all high draft picks are immediately great is Lewis Cine. Lewis?
[Lewis Cine] Did you know not all 1st rounders are immediate impact players? Even players from Georgia? The Eagles relied more on 33-year-old Fletcher Cox than recent high picks Jalen carter or Jordan Davis. Just because they might have great careers doesn’t mean they are fully ready for this one early game.
Also, Nakobe Dean and Reed Blankenship were injured week 1, so their LB and Safety positions are even thinner. Their most used DT, Fletcher Cox was hurt too.
I bring up all this change because I asked if change is good or bad. It depends where you start. By yardage, the Vikings were the #31 defense last year; the Eagles were #3. Change is great when you need to get better, but the Eagles were already pretty good before they changed a bunch of things, so they have a huge risk for negative regression.
The one position on defense the Eagles didn’t turn over is CB; where both Darius Slay and James Bradbury are over 30. Also, in the secondary, Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne was manipulating new Eagle’s safety Reed Blankenship all game long. Hunter Henry was getting free down the field.
This entire recap of the Eagles defense is to highlight one simple point: they have a lot of chaos on defense… and to organize all this chaos, they brought in new senior defensive assistant: Matt Patricia, who turned the Lions to sh*t as soon as he took over, then turned Mac Jones to sh*t as soon as he took over (both improved after he left). They are paying Patricia actual money to enter their facility and tell players what to do… and they have to listen to him. The 2022 Vikings should be a warning that a good D Line + bad back end = a bad defense.
How the Vikings Can Win vs the Eagles
Hockenson needs to impact the Eagles pass rush and run defense. However, he doesn’t open up the run game by blocking, he opens it up by moving defenders away from the line of scrimmage.
In Week 1, Hockenson had an average yards before reception of 2.8. The 2023 Vikings strategy was supposed to be based on forcing defenses into a terrible choice. We're going to put Oliver and Hockenson on the field: if you play off Oliver will block your toughest guy and let Mattison run directly at your worst tackler; if you play up, Hockenson will run behind your slowest LB for a chunk play that's basically a long hand off.
BUT
When Hockenson averages 2.8 air yards per reception, there is no terrible choice. The defense can just sit on the run with no extra fear of getting beat over the top.
Compare that to Hunter Henry’s week 1 yards before catch against the Eagles: 10.2. Henry successfully opened up the Eagles defense despite them getting a lot of pressure on Mac Jones.
To exploit the vulnerability in the Eagles secondary, the Vikings should throw away any play that has Hockenson targeted less than 10 yards down field; anything less than that is not a good use of a $66M TE. Jefferson (and to a lesser extent Addison and Osborn), are great deep threats, but the Vikings passing game has to use Hockenson to open up space. If the Vikings make a specific effort to get Hockenson going downfield, other things can work; and if they do, I think the Vikings offense can carry the defense this week.
If Hockenson has another game where he averages less than 5 air yards per catch, the Vikings offense won’t be able to keep pace. Get him over 10 air yards and the Vikings can carve up the Eagles D.
The 2023 Vikings defense matches up better against Hurts than the 2022 defense and the Eagles can be beaten over the top. To win, the Vikings will need to make some strategic changes, but they have the personnel to do so.
Eagles Offense vs Vikings Defense
The Eagles only scored 18 points on offense in week 1. They weren’t exactly a juggernaut.
But the Eagles offense is intimidating because they have two great receivers and an QB who was in the MVP conversation. The Patriots neutralized both of those advantages with the same strategy. In 2022, Hurts looked like he was playing loose and easy, he never seemed to force a throw because he always had a running lane to take. I did not see those same running lanes against the Patriots.
The knock on Jalen Hurts in 2022 was that the Eagles were giving him extremely simple reads and there were questions on if he could handle more complexity. The 2022 Vikings were exhibit A in giving Hurts simple reads, this 2023 team should present him with more complexity. This is where I think the Vikings approach I saw against the Bucs will carry over. Despite all their aggression and movement, they were able to react to screens and QB runs pretty quickly; they weren’t over pursuing or leaving large chunks of the field undefended.
A major difference between 2022 and 2023 that I’m looking at is which WR should I be watching. In 2022, Devonta Smith was the bigger threat. The Vikings weren’t great against slot routes where Smith excels. With the change in defensive approach, AJ Brown is much more dangerous – I’m sure he’ll get a few 1:1 chances. The Patriots didn’t shut down AJ Brown, but they did hold him to 7 catches with a long of 23 yards by forcing fast decisions from Hurts; if the Vikings can follow that template, the Vikings Defense vs Eagles offense can at least be a close matchup. Even if this matchup tilts slightly in favor of the Eagles, I still think the Vikings can win because…
Vikings Offense vs Eagles Defense
Is change good or bad?
Quick level set: which team experienced more defensive turnover: the Eagles or Vikings?
The Vikings returned 5 starters: Harrison Phillips, Danielle Hunter, Jordan Hicks, Harrison Smith, Cam Bynum. And, Akayleb Evans was almost the 6th starter; he took over as a starter from Dantzler before his season was derailed by concussions.
The Eagles Lost: both Safeties (Marcus Epps and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson), both starting LBs (TJ Edwards and Kyzir White), DT Jason Hargrave. They also lost both coordinators to head coaching positions.
BUT! Don’t the Eagles have a lot of draft picks? Here to talk about how all high draft picks are immediately great is Lewis Cine. Lewis?
[Lewis Cine] Did you know not all 1st rounders are immediate impact players? Even players from Georgia? The Eagles relied more on 33-year-old Fletcher Cox than recent high picks Jalen carter or Jordan Davis. Just because they might have great careers doesn’t mean they are fully ready for this one early game.
Also, Nakobe Dean and Reed Blankenship were injured week 1, so their LB and Safety positions are even thinner. Their most used DT, Fletcher Cox was hurt too.
I bring up all this change because I asked if change is good or bad. It depends where you start. By yardage, the Vikings were the #31 defense last year; the Eagles were #3. Change is great when you need to get better, but the Eagles were already pretty good before they changed a bunch of things, so they have a huge risk for negative regression.
The one position on defense the Eagles didn’t turn over is CB; where both Darius Slay and James Bradbury are over 30. Also, in the secondary, Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne was manipulating new Eagle’s safety Reed Blankenship all game long. Hunter Henry was getting free down the field.
This entire recap of the Eagles defense is to highlight one simple point: they have a lot of chaos on defense… and to organize all this chaos, they brought in new senior defensive assistant: Matt Patricia, who turned the Lions to sh*t as soon as he took over, then turned Mac Jones to sh*t as soon as he took over (both improved after he left). They are paying Patricia actual money to enter their facility and tell players what to do… and they have to listen to him. The 2022 Vikings should be a warning that a good D Line + bad back end = a bad defense.
How the Vikings Can Win vs the Eagles
Hockenson needs to impact the Eagles pass rush and run defense. However, he doesn’t open up the run game by blocking, he opens it up by moving defenders away from the line of scrimmage.
In Week 1, Hockenson had an average yards before reception of 2.8. The 2023 Vikings strategy was supposed to be based on forcing defenses into a terrible choice. We're going to put Oliver and Hockenson on the field: if you play off Oliver will block your toughest guy and let Mattison run directly at your worst tackler; if you play up, Hockenson will run behind your slowest LB for a chunk play that's basically a long hand off.
BUT
When Hockenson averages 2.8 air yards per reception, there is no terrible choice. The defense can just sit on the run with no extra fear of getting beat over the top.
Compare that to Hunter Henry’s week 1 yards before catch against the Eagles: 10.2. Henry successfully opened up the Eagles defense despite them getting a lot of pressure on Mac Jones.
To exploit the vulnerability in the Eagles secondary, the Vikings should throw away any play that has Hockenson targeted less than 10 yards down field; anything less than that is not a good use of a $66M TE. Jefferson (and to a lesser extent Addison and Osborn), are great deep threats, but the Vikings passing game has to use Hockenson to open up space. If the Vikings make a specific effort to get Hockenson going downfield, other things can work; and if they do, I think the Vikings offense can carry the defense this week.
If Hockenson has another game where he averages less than 5 air yards per catch, the Vikings offense won’t be able to keep pace. Get him over 10 air yards and the Vikings can carve up the Eagles D.
... and neither is this Chris guy.